Fault Location on a Distribution Network Using a Decentralised Analysis Process

A reduction in the time required to locate and restore faults on a utility's distribution network improves the customer minutes lost (CML) measurement and hence brings direct cost savings to the operating company. The traditional approach to fault location involves fault impedance determination from high volume waveform files dispatched across a communications channel to a central location for processing and analysis. This paper examines an alternative scheme where data processing is undertaken locally within a recording instrument thus reducing the volume of data to be transmitted. Processed event fault reports may be emailed to relevant operational staff for the timely repair and restoration of the line.

Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

An Enchanted Tool? Humanitarian Assistance and the ILC Draft Articles on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters

Despite previous attempts at codification of international law regarding international responses to natural and human-made disasters, there is currently no binding international legal framework to regulate the provision of humanitarian assistance outside armed conflicts. Nevertheless, since the International Law Commission (ILC) included the protection of persons in the event of disasters on its programme of work in 2006, it has provisionally adopted eleven draft articles that have the potential to create binding obligations on states and humanitarian actors in disaster settings. Draft articles adopted include the definition of ‘a disaster’, the relationship of the draft articles to the international humanitarian law of armed conflict, recognition of the inherent dignity of the human person, and the duty of international cooperation. However, the final form of the draft articles has not been agreed. The Codification Division of the UN Office of Legal Affairs has proposed a framework convention format, which has seen support in the ILC and the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. The overall aim of this article is to provide an analysis of the potential forms of international regulation open to the ILC and states in the context of humanitarian responses to disasters. However to avoid enchanting the ILC draft articles with unwarranted power, any examination of form requires an understanding of the substantive subject matter of the planned international regulation. The article therefore provides an overview of the international legal regulation of humanitarian assistance following natural and human-made disasters, and the ILC’s work to date on the topic. It then examines two key issues that remain to be addressed by the ILC and representatives of states in the UN General Assembly Sixth Committee. Drawing on the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, the development and implications of binding and non-binding international texts are examined, followed by an analysis of the suggested framework convention approach identified by the Special Rapporteur as a potential outcome of the ILC work.

An Analysis of Soft Law Applicable to Humanitarian Assistance: Relative Normativity in Action?

There is limited binding international law specifically covering the provision of humanitarian assistance in response to natural and human-made disasters. Yet a variety of authoritative soft law texts have been developed in the past 20 years, including the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, the Red Cross Red Crescent Code of Conduct and the Sphere Project’s Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response. While such ‘non-binding normative standards’ do not carry the weight of international law, they play an essential role in the provision of humanitarian assistance albeit subject to their limited enforceability vis-à-vis intended beneficiaries and to their voluntary application by humanitarian actors. Notwithstanding a lack of legal compulsion, certain non-binding normative standards may directly influence the actions of States and non-State actors, and so obtain a strongly persuasive character. Analysis of texts that influence the practice of humanitarian assistance advances our understanding of humanitarian principles and performance standards for disaster response. As the International Law Commission debates draft articles on the Protection of Persons in the Event of Disasters, such non-binding normative standards are crucial to the development of an internationally accepted legal framework to protect victims of disasters.

Efficacy and safety of radium-223 dichloride in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and symptomatic bone metastases, with or without previous docetaxel use: A prespecified subgroup analysis from the randomised, double-blind, phase 3 ALSYMPCA trial

Background: Primary results from the phase 3 ALSYMPCA trial showed that radium-223 dichloride (radium-223), a targeted α-emitter, improved overall survival compared with placebo and was well tolerated in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and symptomatic bone metastases. We did a prespecified subgroup analysis from ALSYMPCA to assess the effect of previous docetaxel use on the efficacy and safety of radium-223. 

Methods: In the phase 3, randomised, double-blind ALSYMPCA trial, patients with symptomatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, at least two symptomatic bone metastases, no known visceral metastases, and who were receiving best standard of care were randomly assigned (2:1) via an interactive voice response system to receive six injections of radium-223 (50 kBq/kg intravenously) or matching placebo, with one injection given every 4 weeks. Patients had either received previous docetaxel treatment or were unsuitable for or declined docetaxel; previous docetaxel use (yes or no) was a trial stratification factor. We investigated the effect of previous docetaxel use on radium-223 treatment for the primary endpoint of overall survival, the main secondary efficacy endpoints, and safety. Efficacy analyses were done for the intention-to-treat population; safety analyses were done for the safety population. The trial has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00699751. 

Findings: Randomisation took place between June 12, 2008, and Feb 1, 2011. 526 (57%) of 921 randomly assigned patients had received previous docetaxel treatment (352 in the radium-223 group and 174 in the placebo group) and 395 (43%) had not (262 in the radium-223 group and 133 in the placebo group). Radium-223 prolonged median overall survival compared with placebo, irrespective of previous docetaxel use (previous docetaxel use, hazard ratio [HR] 0·70, 95% CI 0·56-0·88; p=0·002; no previous docetaxel use, HR 0·69, 0·52-0·92; p=0·01). The benefit of radium-223 compared with placebo was seen in both docetaxel subgroups for most main secondary efficacy endpoints; risk for time to time to first symptomatic skeletal event was reduced with radium-223 versus placebo in patients with previous docetaxel use, but the difference was not significant in those with no previous docetaxel use. 322 (62%) of 518 patients previously treated with docetaxel had grade 3-4 adverse events, compared with 205 (54%) of 383 patients without docetaxel. Patients who had previously been treated with docetaxel had a higher incidence of grade 3-4 thrombocytopenia with radium-223 than with placebo (31 [9%] of 347 patients vs five [3%] of 171 patients), whereas the incidence was similar between treatment groups among patients with no previous docetaxel use (seven [3%] of 253 patients vs one [1%] of 130 patients). The incidences of grade 3-4 anaemia and neutropenia were similar between the radium-223 and placebo groups within both docetaxel subgroups. 

Interpretation: Radium-223 is effective and well tolerated in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer and symptomatic bone metastases, irrespective of previous docetaxel use. 

Funding: Algeta ASA and Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals.

Video Event Recognition by Dempster-Shafer Theory

This paper presents an event recognition framework, based on Dempster-Shafer theory, that combines evidence of events from low-level computer vision analytics. The proposed method employing evidential network modelling of composite events, is able to represent uncertainty of event output from low level video analysis and infer high level events with semantic meaning along with degrees of belief. The method has been evaluated on videos taken of subjects entering and leaving a seated area. This has relevance to a number of transport scenarios, such as onboard buses and trains, and also in train stations and airports. Recognition results of 78% and 100% for four composite events are encouraging.

'Regina v John Terry': The Discursive Construction of an Alleged Racist Event

This article explores the conformation in discourse of a verbal exchange and its subsequent mediatised and legal ramifications. The event concerns an allegedly racist insult directed by high profile English professional footballer John Terry towards another player, Anton Ferdinand, during a televised match in October 2011. The substance of Terry’s utterance, which included the noun phrase ‘fucking black cunt’, was found by a Chief Magistrate not to be a racist insult, although the fact that these actual words were framed within the utterance was not in dispute. The upshot of this ruling was that Terry was acquitted of a racially aggravated public order offence. A subsequent investigation by the regulatory commission of the English Football Association (FA) ruled, almost a year after the event, that Terry was guilty of racially abusing Ferdinand. Terry was banned for four matches and fined £220,000.

It is our contention that this event, played out in legal rulings, social media and print and broadcast media, constitutes a complex web of linguistic structures and strategies in discourse, and as such lends itself well to analysis with a broad range of tools from pragmatics, discourse analysis and cognitive linguistics. Amongst other things, such an analysis can help explain the seemingly anomalous - even contradictory - position adopted in the legal ruling with regard to the speech act status of ‘fucking black cunt’; namely, that the racist content of the utterance was not contested but that the speaker was found not to have issued a racist insult. Over its course, the article addresses this broader issue by making reference to the systemic-functional interpersonal function of language, particularly to the concepts of modality, polarity and modalisation. It also draws on models of verbal irony from linguistic pragmatics, notably from the theory of irony as echoic mention (c.f. Sperber and Wilson, 1981; Wilson and Sperber, 1992). Furthermore, the article makes use of the cognitive-linguistic framework, Text World Theory (c.f. Gavins, 2007; Werth, 1999) to examine the discourse positions occupied by key actors and adapts, from cognitive poetics, the theory of mind-modelling (c.f. Stockwell, 2009) to explore the conceptual means through which these actors discursively negotiate the event.

It is argued that the pragmatic and cognitive strategies that frame the entire incident go a long way towards mitigating the impact of so ostensibly stark an act of racial abuse. Moreover, it is suggested here that the reconciliation of Terry’s action was a result of the confluence of strategies of discourse with relations of power as embodied by the media, the law and perceptions of nationhood embraced by contemporary football culture. It is further proposed that the outcome of this episode, where the FA was put in the spotlight, and where both the conflict and its key antagonists were ‘intranational’, was strongly impelled by the institution of English football and its governing body both to reproduce and maintain social, cultural and ethnic cohesion and to avoid any sense that the event featured a discernable ‘out-group’.

Synchrophasor-Based Islanding Detection for Distributed Generation Systems Using Systematic Principal Component Analysis Approaches

Systematic principal component analysis (PCA) methods are presented in this paper for reliable islanding detection for power systems with significant penetration of distributed generations (DGs), where synchrophasors recorded by Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) are used for system monitoring. Existing islanding detection methods such as Rate-of-change-of frequency (ROCOF) and Vector Shift are fast for processing local information, however with the growth in installed capacity of DGs, they suffer from several drawbacks. Incumbent genset islanding detection cannot distinguish a system wide disturbance from an islanding event, leading to mal-operation. The problem is even more significant when the grid does not have sufficient inertia to limit frequency divergences in the system fault/stress due to the high penetration of DGs. To tackle such problems, this paper introduces PCA methods for islanding detection. Simple control chart is established for intuitive visualization of the transients. A Recursive PCA (RPCA) scheme is proposed as a reliable extension of the PCA method to reduce the false alarms for time-varying process. To further reduce the computational burden, the approximate linear dependence condition (ALDC) errors are calculated to update the associated PCA model. The proposed PCA and RPCA methods are verified by detecting abnormal transients occurring in the UK utility network.

Aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in early breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of the randomised trials

BACKGROUND: The optimal ways of using aromatase inhibitors or tamoxifen as endocrine treatment for early breast cancer remains uncertain.

METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of individual data on 31 920 postmenopausal women with oestrogen-receptor-positive early breast cancer in the randomised trials of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen; of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5; and of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen. Primary outcomes were any recurrence of breast cancer, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded aromatase inhibitor versus tamoxifen first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·64, 95% CI 0·52-0·78) and 2-4 (RR 0·80, 0·68-0·93), and non-significantly thereafter. 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (12·1% vs 14·2%; RR 0·85, 0·75-0·96; 2p=0·009). In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·74, 0·62-0·89) but not while both groups received aromatase inhibitors during years 2-4, or thereafter; overall in these trials, there were fewer recurrences with 5 years of aromatase inhibitors than with tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitors (RR 0·90, 0·81-0·99; 2p=0·045), though the breast cancer mortality reduction was not significant (RR 0·89, 0·78-1·03; 2p=0·11). In the comparison of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 2-4 (RR 0·56, 0·46-0·67) but not subsequently, and 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with switching to aromatase inhibitors than with remaining on tamoxifen (8·7% vs 10·1%; 2p=0·015). Aggregating all three types of comparison, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors during periods when treatments differed (RR 0·70, 0·64-0·77), but not significantly thereafter (RR 0·93, 0·86-1·01; 2p=0·08). Breast cancer mortality was reduced both while treatments differed (RR 0·79, 0·67-0·92), and subsequently (RR 0·89, 0·81-0·99), and for all periods combined (RR 0·86, 0·80-0·94; 2p=0·0005). All-cause mortality was also reduced (RR 0·88, 0·82-0·94; 2p=0·0003). RRs differed little by age, body-mass index, stage, grade, progesterone receptor status, or HER2 status. There were fewer endometrial cancers with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (10-year incidence 0·4% vs 1·2%; RR 0·33, 0·21-0·51) but more bone fractures (5-year risk 8·2% vs 5·5%; RR 1·42, 1·28-1·57); non-breast-cancer mortality was similar.

INTERPRETATION: Aromatase inhibitors reduce recurrence rates by about 30% (proportionately) compared with tamoxifen while treatments differ, but not thereafter. 5 years of an aromatase inhibitor reduces 10-year breast cancer mortality rates by about 15% compared with 5 years of tamoxifen, hence by about 40% (proportionately) compared with no endocrine treatment.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

IGFBP7 promoter methylation and gene expression analysis in prostate cancer

PURPOSE: IGFBP7 belongs to a family of insulin-like growth factor-1 regulatory binding proteins. IGFBP7 hypermethylation is associated with its down-regulation in various carcinomas. In prostate cancer IGFBP7 down-regulation has been widely reported but to our knowledge the mechanisms behind this event are unknown. We performed a denaturing high performance liquid chromatography screening and validation strategy to profile the methylation status of IGFBP7 in prostate cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We combined denaturing high performance liquid chromatography and bisulfite sequencing to examine IGFBP7 methylation in a panel of prostate cancer cell lines. Quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction was used to determine methylation levels in prostate tissue specimens of primary prostate cancer, histologically benign prostate adjacent to tumor, high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia and benign prostatic hyperplasia. IGFBP7 gene expression was measured by quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction in cell lines and tissue specimens.

RESULTS: IGFBP7 was methylated in the 4 prostate cancer cell lines DU145, LNCaP, PC-3 and 22RV1. Quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction analysis revealed that promoter methylation was associated with decreased IGFBP7 expression. Quantitative methylation specific polymerase chain reaction showed that IGFBP7 methylation was more frequently detected in prostate cancer (60% (31/52)) and high grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (40% (6/15)) samples compared to histologically benign prostate adjacent to tumor (10%) and benign prostatic hyperplasia (0%) samples.

CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge this is the first report of aberrant IGFBP7 promoter hypermethylation and concurrent IGFBP7 gene silencing in prostate cancer cell lines. Results demonstrate that CpG methylation of IGFBP7 may represent a novel biomarker of prostate cancer and pre-invasive neoplasms. Thus, future examination of IGFBP7 methylation and expression in a larger patient cohort, including bodily fluids, is justified to further evaluate its role in a diagnostic and prognostic setting.

Donor type microchimerism is an infrequent event following liver transplantation and is not associated with graft acceptance

Donor-type microchimerism, the presence of a minority population of donor-derived haematopoietic cells following solid organ transplantation, has been postulated as a mechanism for induction of donor-specific graft tolerance. The stability, frequency, and relevance of microchimerism with respect to long-term outcome, however, remains uncertain. Using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based method of microsatellite analysis of highly polymorphic short tandem repeat sequences (STRs) to detect donor-type cells, DNA from 11 patients was analyzed prospectively at specific time points for 12 months following liver transplantation, and from a further six patients retrospectively 2 years after liver transplantation. Using a panel of STRs, transient peripheral blood donor microchimerism was detected in 2 of 11 patients at a single time-point following transplantation, but persistent evidence of donor-derived cells was not observed during the study period. Analysis of DNA extracted from skin and duodenum in two patients likewise failed to show donor-type cells at these sites. None of the six patients in the retrospective arm showed donor microchimerism, resulting in an overall detection rate of 1.58%. These results suggest that donor microchimerism following liver transplantation is an infrequent event, and that the generation of graft tolerance is independent of microchimerism.

Recent Developments in the Analysis of the Black Mat Layer and Cosmic Impact at 12.8ka

Recent analyses of sediment samples from "black mat" sites in South America and Europe support previous interpretations of an ET impact event that reversed the Late Glacial demise of LGM ice during the Bølling Allerød warming, resulting in a resurgence of ice termed the Younger Dryas (YD) cooling episode. The breakup or impact of a cosmic vehicle at the YD boundary coincides with the onset of a 1-kyr long interval of glacial resurgence, one of the most studied events of the Late Pleistocene. New analytical databases reveal a corpus of data indicating that the cosmic impact was a real event, most possibly a cosmic airburst from Earth's encounter with the Taurid Complex comet or unknown asteroid, an event that led to cosmic fragments exploding interhemispherically over widely dispersed areas, including the northern Andes of Venezuela and the Alps on the Italian/French frontier. While the databases in the two areas differ somewhat, the overall interpretation is that microtextural evidence in weathering rinds and in sands of associated paleosols and glaciofluvial deposits carry undeniable attributes of melted glassy carbon and Fe spherules, planar deformation features, shock-melted and contorted quartz, occasional transition and platinum metals, and brecciated and impacted minerals of diverse lithologies. In concert with other black mat localities in the Western USA, the Netherlands, coastal France, Syria, Central Asia, Peru, Argentina and Mexico, it appears that a widespread cosmic impact by an asteroid or comet is responsible for deposition of the black mat at the onset of the YD glacial event. Whether or not the impact caused a 1-kyr interval of glacial climate depends upon whether or not the Earth had multiple centuries-long episodic encounters with the Taurid Complex or asteroid remnants; impact-related changes in microclimates sustained climatic forcing sufficient to maintain positive mass balances in the reformed ice; and/or inertia in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation system persisted for 1kyr. 

Energy and environmental forensic analysis for public buildings.

This paper outlines a forensic method for analysing the energy, environmental and comfort performance of a building. The method has been applied to a recently developed event space in an Irish public building, which was evaluated using on-site field studies, data analysis, building simulation and occupant surveying. The method allows for consideration of both the technological and anthropological aspects of the building in use and for the identification of unsustainable operational practice and emerging problems. The forensic analysis identified energy savings of up to 50%, enabling a more sustainable, lower-energy operational future for the building. The building forensic analysis method presented in this paper is now planned for use in other public and commercial buildings.

Averaged Extended Tree Augmented Naive Classifier

This work presents a new general purpose classifier named Averaged Extended Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (AETAN), which is based on combining the advantageous characteristics of Extended Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (ETAN) and Averaged One-Dependence Estimator (AODE) classifiers. We describe the main properties of the approach and algorithms for learning it, along with an analysis of its computational time complexity. Empirical results with numerous data sets indicate that the new approach is superior to ETAN and AODE in terms of both zero-one classification accuracy and log loss. It also compares favourably against weighted AODE and hidden Naive Bayes. The learning phase of the new approach is slower than that of its competitors, while the time complexity for the testing phase is similar. Such characteristics suggest that the new classifier is ideal in scenarios where online learning is not required.

Real-Time Multiple Event Detection and Classification Using Moving Window PCA

This paper proposes a method for the detection and classification of multiple events in an electrical power system in real-time, namely; islanding, high frequency events (loss of load) and low frequency events (loss of generation). This method is based on principal component analysis of frequency measurements and employs a moving window approach to combat the time-varying nature of power systems, thereby increasing overall situational awareness of the power system. Numerical case studies using both real data, collected from the UK power system, and simulated case studies, constructed using DigSilent PowerFactory, for islanding events, as well as both loss of load and generation dip events, are used to demonstrate the reliability of the proposed method.