Estimating parliamentary composition through electoral polls

Any electoral system has an electoral formula that converts voteproportions into parliamentary seats. Pre-electoral polls usually focuson estimating vote proportions and then applying the electoral formulato give a forecast of the parliament's composition. We here describe theproblems arising from this approach: there is always a bias in theforecast. We study the origin of the bias and some methods to evaluateand to reduce it. We propose some rules to compute the sample sizerequired for a given forecast accuracy. We show by Monte Carlo simulationthe performance of the proposed methods using data from Spanish electionsin last years. We also propose graphical methods to visualize how electoralformulae and parliamentary forecasts work (or fail).

Cohort study of trials submitted to ethics committee identified discrepant reporting of outcomes in publications.

OBJECTIVES: To identify factors associated with discrepant outcome reporting in randomized drug trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Cohort study of protocols submitted to a Swiss ethics committee 1988-1998: 227 protocols and amendments were compared with 333 matching articles published during 1990-2008. Discrepant reporting was defined as addition, omission, or reclassification of outcomes. RESULTS: Overall, 870 of 2,966 unique outcomes were reported discrepantly (29.3%). Among protocol-defined primary outcomes, 6.9% were not reported (19 of 274), whereas 10.4% of reported outcomes (30 of 288) were not defined in the protocol. Corresponding percentages for secondary outcomes were 19.0% (284 of 1,495) and 14.1% (334 of 2,375). Discrepant reporting was more likely if P values were <0.05 compared with P ≥ 0.05 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.78], more likely for efficacy compared with harm outcomes (aOR: 2.99; 95% CI: 2.08, 4.30) and more likely for composite than for single outcomes (aOR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.20). Cardiology (aOR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.44, 3.79) and infectious diseases (aOR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.13) had more discrepancies compared with all specialties combined. CONCLUSION: Discrepant reporting was associated with statistical significance of results, type of outcome, and specialty area. Trial protocols should be made freely available, and the publications should describe and justify any changes made to protocol-defined outcomes.

Predictors and Moderators of Clinical Outcomes in Adolescents with Severe Mental Disorders After an Assertive Community Treatment.

Previous studies have shown that stressful life events (SLEs), gender, social functioning and pretreatment severity are some of the predictors and/or moderators of treatment outcome in psychiatric care. The current study explored the effect of these predictors and moderators on the treatment outcome related to assertive community treatment (ACT) proposed to young people with severe mental disorders. 98 patients were assessed for externalizing and emotional difficulties, at admission and then at discharge of an ACT. Analyses revealed significant improvements in terms of symptomatology. In particular, regression analyses showed that pretreatment severity is a significant predictor of the outcome on emotional symptoms and is moderated by SLE on the outcome on externalizing symptoms. Furthermore, higher social functioning proved to predict better outcome on externalizing symptoms. Our results further evidence that these factors can explain inter-individual differences in outcome related to ACT. The theoretical and clinical implications of these results are discussed.

Strike outcomes and wage settlements in Spain

This paper analyzes collective bargaining using Spanish firm level data. Centralto the analysis are the joint determination of wage and strike outcomes in adynamic framework and the possibility of segregate wage equation for strike andnon-strike outcomes. Conditional to strikes taking place, we confirm a negativerelationship between strike duration and wage changes in a dynamic context.Furthermore, we find selection in wage equations induced by the strike outcome.In this sense, the possibility of wage determination processes being differentin strike and non-strike samples is not rejected by the data. In particular,wage dynamics are of opposite sing in both strike and non-strike equations.Finally, we find evidence of a 0.33 percentage points wage change strike premium.

Electoral competition under the threat of political unrest

We study elections in which one party (the strong party) controls a source of political unrest; e.g., this party could instigate riots if it lost the election. We show that the strong party is more likely to win the election when there is less information about its ability to cause unrest. This is because when theweak party is better informed, it can more reliably prevent political unrest by implementing a ``centrist'' policy. When there is uncertainty over the credibility of the threat, ``posturing'' by the strong party leads to platform divergence.

Voto dual y abstención diferencial. Un estudio sobre el comportamiento electoral en Cataluña

En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de un estudio empírico sobre los motivos del cambio sistemático de resultados electorales que se da en Cataluña según el ámbito de la convocatoria electoral de que se trate. La hipótesis, contrastada positivamente con datos del período 1982-1993, es que la victoria del partido nacionalista de centro derecha en las elecciones autonómicas en un territorio donde vencen siempre los socialistas en las elecciones legislativas se debe a la combinación de los fenómenos del voto dual y del abstencionismo diferencial. La aproximación metodológica de la elección racional permite construir grupos de electores que tienen distintas percepciones del espacio en el que se dirime la competición política, hecho que les induce a un comportamiento electoral diferenciado. Combinando estos resultados con los obtenidos del análisis con datos socioestructurales agregados, se establece un cierto perfil de los votantes duales y de los abstencionistas diferenciales. Finalmente, se realiza una interpretación de los resultados de las elecciones catalanas de 1995 y 1999 a la luz de los resultados de este estudio.This article presents the results of an empirical study about the reasons of the systematic change in the electoral results in Catalonia according to the type of elections. The hypothesis, positively tested with data from the period 1982-1993, is that the victory of the nationalist centre-right party in the autonomous elections in a region where always wins the socialist party in general elections, is due to the combination of the dual vote and differential abstention phenomena. The rational choice methodological approach allow to construct groups of electors with different perceptions about the space in which the political race takes place, fact that induces them different electoral behaviour. In combining these results with those obtained from the analysis with aggregated social and structural data, it is defined a certain the profile of the dual voters and the differential non-voters. Finally, it is given an interpretation of the Catalan election results in 1995 and 1999 using as a clue the results of this study.

Correlation of O6-methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation with clinical outcomes in glioblastoma and clinical strategies to modulate MGMT activity.

Resistance to alkylating agents via direct DNA repair by O(6)-methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) remains a significant barrier to the successful treatment of patients with malignant glioma. The relative expression of MGMT in the tumor may determine response to alkylating agents, and epigenetic silencing of the MGMT gene by promoter methylation plays an important role in regulating MGMT expression in gliomas. MGMT promoter methylation is correlated with improved progression-free and overall survival in patients treated with alkylating agents. Strategies to overcome MGMT-mediated chemoresistance are being actively investigated. These include treatment with nontoxic pseudosubstrate inhibitors of MGMT, such as O(6)-benzylguanine, or RNA interference-mediated gene silencing of MGMT. However, systemic application of MGMT inhibitors is limited by an increase in hematologic toxicity. Another strategy is to deplete MGMT activity in tumor tissue using a dose-dense temozolomide schedule. These alternative schedules are well tolerated; however, it remains unclear whether they are more effective than the standard dosing regimen or whether they effectively deplete MGMT activity in tumor tissue. Of note, not all patients with glioblastoma having MGMT promoter methylation respond to alkylating agents, and even those who respond will inevitably experience relapse. Herein we review the data supporting MGMT as a major mechanism of chemotherapy resistance in malignant gliomas and describe ongoing studies that are testing resistance-modulating strategies.

Wechsel von einem mechanischen Mikrokeratom auf einen Femtosekunden-Laser zur Korrektur von Astigmatismus mittels LASIK: klinische Ergebnisse einer retrospektiven, konsekutiven Vergleichsstudie Moving from a Mechanical Microkeratome to a Femtosecond Laser for LASIK to Correct Astigmatic Patients: Clinical Outcomes of a Retrospective, Consecutive, Comparative Study.

Background: To evaluate outcomes after optimized laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) for astigmatism correction with flap created by a mechanical microkeratome or a femtosecond laser. Patients and Methods: In this retrospective study, a total of 102 eyes of 71 consecutive patients were enrolled undergoing optimized LASIK treatments using the Allegretto laser system (WaveLight Laser Technologie AG, Erlangen, Germany). A mechanical microkeratome for flap creation was used (One Use, Moria®) in 46 eyes (31 patients, spherical equivalent [SE] -4.44 D ± 2.4) and a femtosecond laser was used (LDV, Ziemer®) in 56 eyes (40 patients, spherical equivalent [SE] -3.07 D ± 3.3). The two groups were matched for inclusion criteria and were operated under similar conditions by the same surgeon. Results: Overall, the preoperative spherical equivalent was -9.5 diopters (D) to +3.37 D; the preoperative manifest astigmatism was between -1.5 D and -3.5 D. At 6 months postoperatively, the mean postoperative uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA) was 0.93 ± 0.17 (range 0.4 to 1.2) in the Moria group and 1.0 ± 0.21 (range 0.6 to 1.6) in the Femto group, which was statistically significant (p = 0.003). Comparing the cylinder power there was a statistical difference between the two groups (p = 0.0015). Conclusions: This study shows that the method of flap creation has a significant impact on postoperative astigmatism with a significantly better postoperative UDVA in the Femto group. These findings suggest that the femtosecond laser provides a better platform for LASIK treatment of astigmatism than the commonly used microkeratome.

n-3 fatty acids and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with dysglycemia.

BACKGROUND: The use of n-3 fatty acids may prevent cardiovascular events in patients with recent myocardial infarction or heart failure. Their effects in patients with (or at risk for) type 2 diabetes mellitus are unknown. METHODS: In this double-blind study with a 2-by-2 factorial design, we randomly assigned 12,536 patients who were at high risk for cardiovascular events and had impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, or diabetes to receive a 1-g capsule containing at least 900 mg (90% or more) of ethyl esters of n-3 fatty acids or placebo daily and to receive either insulin glargine or standard care. The primary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes. The results of the comparison between n-3 fatty acids and placebo are reported here. RESULTS: During a median follow up of 6.2 years, the incidence of the primary outcome was not significantly decreased among patients receiving n-3 fatty acids, as compared with those receiving placebo (574 patients [9.1%] vs. 581 patients [9.3%]; hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 1.10; P=0.72). The use of n-3 fatty acids also had no significant effect on the rates of major vascular events (1034 patients [16.5%] vs. 1017 patients [16.3%]; hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.10; P=0.81), death from any cause (951 [15.1%] vs. 964 [15.4%]; hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.07; P=0.63), or death from arrhythmia (288 [4.6%] vs. 259 [4.1%]; hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.30; P=0.26). Triglyceride levels were reduced by 14.5 mg per deciliter (0.16 mmol per liter) more among patients receiving n-3 fatty acids than among those receiving placebo (P<0.001), without a significant effect on other lipids. Adverse effects were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Daily supplementation with 1 g of n-3 fatty acids did not reduce the rate of cardiovascular events in patients at high risk for cardiovascular events. (Funded by Sanofi; ORIGIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00069784.).

Anemia on admission predicts short- and long-term outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: It is still debatable whether anemia predicts stroke outcome. AIM: To describe the characteristics of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and anemia and identify whether hemoglobin status on admission is a prognostic factor of AIS outcome. METHODS: All 2439 patients of the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) between January 2003 and June 2011 were selected. Demographics, risk factors, prestroke treatment, clinical, radiological and metabolic variables in patients with and without anemia according to the definition of the World Health Organization were compared. Functional disability and mortality were recorded up to 12 months from admission. RESULTS: Anemic patients (17.5%) were older, had lower body mass index, higher rates of coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus and peripheral artery disease. Anemia was associated with more severe stroke manifestations, lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements, worse estimated glomerular filtration rate and elevated C-reactive protein concentrations upon admission and with increased modified Rankin scores during the follow-up. Anemic patients had higher 7-day, 3-month and 12-month mortality, which was associated with hemoglobin status and other factors, including age, CAD, stroke severity, and baseline C-reactive levels. Hemoglobin levels were inversely associated with recurrent stroke and mortality throughout the 12-month follow-up. CONCLUSION: Anemia is common among AIS patients and is associated with cardiovascular comorbidities. Low hemoglobin status independently predicts short and long-term mortality.

Strategies for improving outcomes in NSCLC: a look to the future.

Advances in the management of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) over the past 30 years have led to small increases in 5-year survival rates across Europe, though further improvements may require new treatment strategies. In order to improve efficiency and reduce the cost of development, future trials for new targeted agents in NSCLC should aim to recruit patients on the basis of tumour biology rather than clinical characteristics. However, identification of predictive biomarkers is required to maximise the benefits of new approaches and expedite the drug development process. Nevertheless, the NSCLC landscape is changing rapidly, and recent improvements in our understanding of the molecular biology of the disease will help in the identification of novel targeted agents as well as assisting in the development of personalised strategies for the numerous small subsets of defined NSCLC. Progress in imaging and treatment delivery is also likely to improve outcomes for patients with the disease. This article outlines recent progress in the treatment of NSCLC, identifies current challenges and describes proposals for improving the future management of the disease. It is hoped that implementation of some of these strategies will go some way to improving the outlook for patients with NSCLC.

Anemia and chronic kidney disease are associated with poor outcomes in heart failure patients.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been linked to higher heart failure (HF) risk. Anemia is a common consequence of CKD, and recent evidence suggests that anemia is a risk factor for HF. The purpose of this study was to examine among patients with HF, the association between CKD, anemia and inhospital mortality and early readmission. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in two Swiss university hospitals. Subjects were selected based the presence of ICD-10 HF codes in 1999. We recorded demographic characteristics and risk factors for HF. CKD was defined as a serum creatinine > or = 124 956;mol/L for women and > or = 133 micromol/L for men. The main outcome measures were inhospital mortality and thirty-day readmissions. RESULTS: Among 955 eligible patients hospitalized with heart failure, 23.0% had CKD. Twenty percent and 6.1% of individuals with and without CKD, respectively, died at the hospital (p < 0.0001). Overall, after adjustment for other patient factors, creatinine and hemoglobin were associated with an increased risk of death at the hospital, and hemoglobin was related to early readmission. CONCLUSION: Both CKD and anemia are frequent among older patients with heart failure and are predictors of adverse outcomes, independent of other known risk factors for heart failure.