The three phases of the ensemble forecasting of niche models: geographic range and shifts in climatically suitable areas of Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae)

Species' geographic ranges are usually considered as basic units in macroecology and biogeography, yet it is still difficult to measure them accurately for many reasons. About 20 years ago, researchers started using local data on species' occurrences to estimate broad scale ranges, thereby establishing the niche modeling approach. However, there are still many problems in model evaluation and application, and one of the solutions is to find a consensus solution among models derived from different mathematical and statistical models for niche modeling, climatic projections and variable combination, all of which are sources of uncertainty during niche modeling. In this paper, we discuss this approach of ensemble forecasting and propose that it can be divided into three phases with increasing levels of complexity. Phase I is the simple combination of maps to achieve a consensual and hopefully conservative solution. In Phase II, differences among the maps used are described by multivariate analyses, and Phase III consists of the quantitative evaluation of the relative magnitude of uncertainties from different sources and their mapping. To illustrate these developments, we analyzed the occurrence data of the tiger moth, Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae), a Neotropical moth species, and modeled its geographic range in current and future climates.

Synanthropy and ecological aspects of Muscidae (Diptera) in a tropical dry forest ecosystem in Colombia

The synanthropic index and other ecological aspects of the Muscidae family were evaluated through simultaneous monthly sampling in three different environments (urban, rural and forest) using van Someren-Rydon traps baited with human faeces, chicken viscera and decomposing fish and onion. Four traps were set up in each environment (one per bait item) for 48 hours per month, with samples taken every 12 hours. A total of 5726 specimens were collected, belonging to 19 species and 13 genera. Brontaea normata (+99,9), Brontaea quadristigma (+96,9), Synthesiomyia nudiseta (+96,5), Ophyra aenescens (+96,2), Musca domestica (+95,7) and Atherigona orientalis (+93,8) had the highest synanthropic indices, showing a marked preference for human environments. The most abundant species were B. normata (24,31%), Biopyrellia bipuncta (20,60%) and Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda (15,82%), the latter two showed a preference for uninhabited areas. A total of 11 new records for Colombia were found: Ophyra aenescens, Cyrtoneuropsis pararescita, Morellia basalis, Neomuscina dorsipuncta, Biopyrellia bipuncta, Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda, Neomuscina instabilis, Neomuscina currani, Polietina orbitalis, Neomuscina pictipennis and Cyrtoneuropsis maculipennis. Except for the first four species, the remainder presented negative synantrophy indexes (from minor to major), which would allow to use them as ecological indicators of the disturbance degree of dry forests in Colombia.

Culicidae (Diptera, Culicomorpha) from the western Brazilian Amazon: Juami-Japurá Ecological Station

With 312 trap-hours of sampling effort, 1554 specimens of Culicidae (Diptera) were collected, using CDC and Malaise traps, in nine different locations along the Juami River, within the Juami-Japurá Ecological Station, Amazonas State, Brazil. A list of mosquito species with 54 taxa is presented, which includes three new distributional records for the state of Amazonas. The species found belong to the genera Anopheles, Aedeomyia, Aedes, Psorophora, Culex, Coquillettidia, Sabethes, Wyeomyia and Uranotaenia.

Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Developmental biology, polymorphism and ecological aspects of Stiretrus decemguttatus (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae), an important predator of cassidine beetles

Developmental biology, polymorphism and ecological aspects of Stiretrus decemguttatus (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae), an important predator of cassidine beetles. Stiretrus decemguttatus is an important predator of two species of cassidine beetles, Botanochara sedecimpustulata (Fabricius, 1781) and Zatrephina lineata (Fabricius, 1787) (Coleoptera, Cassidinae), on the Marajó Island, Brazil. It attacks individuals in all development stages, but preys preferentially on late-instar larvae. Its life cycle in the laboratory was 43.70 ± 1.09 days, with an egg incubation period of six days and duration from nymph and adult stages of 16.31 ± 0.11 and 22.10 ± 1.67 days, respectively. The duration of one generation (T) was 12.65 days and the intrinsic population growth rate (r) 0.25. These data reveal the adjustment of the life cycle of S. decemgutattus with those of the two preys, but suggest greater impact on Z. lineata. However, no preference over cassidine species was shown in the laboratory. Up to 17 different color patterns can be found in adults of S. decemguttatus, based on combinations of three basic sets of color markings. Some of them resemble the markings of chrysomelids associated with Ipomoea asarifolia (Convolvulaceae) and are possibly a mimetic ring. Three color patterns were identified in nymphs, none of which was associated with any specific adult color pattern.

CD93 is required for maintenance of antibody secretion and persistence of plasma cells in the bone marrow niche.

Plasma cells represent the end stage of B-cell development and play a key role in providing an efficient antibody response, but they are also involved in numerous pathologies. Here we show that CD93, a receptor expressed during early B-cell development, is reinduced during plasma-cell differentiation. High CD93/CD138 expression was restricted to antibody-secreting cells both in T-dependent and T-independent responses as naive, memory, and germinal-center B cells remained CD93-negative. CD93 was expressed on (pre)plasmablasts/plasma cells, including long-lived plasma cells that showed decreased cell cycle activity, high levels of isotype-switched Ig secretion, and modification of the transcriptional network. T-independent and T-dependent stimuli led to re-expression of CD93 via 2 pathways, either before or after CD138 or Blimp-1 expression. Strikingly, while humoral immune responses initially proceeded normally, CD93-deficient mice were unable to maintain antibody secretion and bone-marrow plasma-cell numbers, demonstrating that CD93 is important for the maintenance of plasma cells in bone marrow niches.

The role of climatic tolerances and seed traits in reduced extinction rates of temperate polygonaceae.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most striking and consistent biodiversity patterns across taxonomic groups. We investigate the species richness gradient in the buckwheat family, Polygonaceae, which exhibits a reverse LDG and is, thus, decoupled from dominant gradients of energy and environmental stability that increase toward the tropics and confound mechanistic interpretations. We test competing age and evolutionary diversification hypotheses, which may explain the diversification of this plant family over the past 70 million years. Our analyses show that the age hypothesis, which posits that clade richness is positively correlated with the ecological and evolutionary time since clade origin, fails to explain the richness gradient observed in Polygonaceae. However, an evolutionary diversification hypothesis is highly supported, with diversification rates being 3.5 times higher in temperate clades compared to tropical clades. We demonstrate that differences in rates of speciation, migration, and molecular evolution insufficiently explain the observed patterns of differential diversification rates. We suggest that reduced extinction rates in temperate clades may be associated with adaptive responses to selection, through which seed morphology and climatic tolerances potentially act to minimize risk in temporally variable environments. Further study is needed to understand causal pathways among these traits and factors correlated with latitude.

An evolutionary model explaining the Neolithic transition from egalitarianism to leadership and despotism.

The Neolithic was marked by a transition from small and relatively egalitarian groups to much larger groups with increased stratification. But, the dynamics of this remain poorly understood. It is hard to see how despotism can arise without coercion, yet coercion could not easily have occurred in an egalitarian setting. Using a quantitative model of evolution in a patch-structured population, we demonstrate that the interaction between demographic and ecological factors can overcome this conundrum. We model the coevolution of individual preferences for hierarchy alongside the degree of despotism of leaders, and the dispersal preferences of followers. We show that voluntary leadership without coercion can evolve in small groups, when leaders help to solve coordination problems related to resource production. An example is coordinating construction of an irrigation system. Our model predicts that the transition to larger despotic groups will then occur when: (i) surplus resources lead to demographic expansion of groups, removing the viability of an acephalous niche in the same area and so locking individuals into hierarchy; (ii) high dispersal costs limit followers' ability to escape a despot. Empirical evidence suggests that these conditions were probably met, for the first time, during the subsistence intensification of the Neolithic.

Ecological temporal stability of Staphylococcus aureus nasal carriage.

We described the colonization dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus in a group of 266 healthy carriers over a period of approximately 1 year. We used precise genotyping methods, i.e., amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP), spa typing, and double-locus sequence typing (DLST), to detect changes in strain identity. Strain change took place rather rarely: out of 89 carriers who had initially been colonized, only 7 acquired a strain different from the original one. Approximately one-third of the carriers eliminated the colonization, and a similar number became newly colonized. Some of these events probably represent detection failure rather than genuine colonization loss or acquisition. Lower bacterial counts were associated with increased probability of eliminating the colonization. We have confirmed a high mutation rate in the spa locus: 6 out of 53 strains underwent mutation in the spa locus. There was no overall change in S. aureus genotype composition.

Projecte de legalització d'una activitat dedicada a l'explotació ramadera i a la formatgeria artesanal

La integració en una mateixa activitat d'una explotació ramadera ecològica basada en el bestiar cabrú de llet i d'una formatgeria artesanal basada en varietats autòctones de formatge de cabra, permet ocupar un nínxol de mercat encara poc explotat actualment a Catalunya. D'igual manera, la dificultat que tenen actualment molts dels formatgers artesans del país per trobar llet de cabra en quantitats suficients i amb unes mínimes garanties higiènico-sanitàries dificulten l'avanç d'un sector amb molt bones perspectives de futur com és el de la formatgeria artesanal i justifica la necessitat de crear noves explotacions (o reconvertir-ne de ja existents) orientant-les de ple vers l'aprofitament lleter del bestiar cabrú, que és actualment molt reduït en l'àmbit Català. A més d'això, les actuals exigències en el camp del benestar animal així com en el camp de la qualitat i de la seguretat alimentaria, exigeixen a les explotacions ramaderes i a les indústries alimentàries el compliment d'una sèrie de requisits, tan de disseny dels locals i de les instal•lacions, com de control de les activitats i dels productes elaborats, que garanteixin en tot moment la seva correcte gestió i funcionament en aquestes matèries. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte, doncs, és la legalització d'una activitat, que anomenarem “Mas Peirot, S.L.”, dedicada a l'explotació ramadera ecològica de bestiar cabrú de llet i a la formatgeria artesanal de formatge de cabra. És important mencionar que tot i tractar-se d'un projecte de legalització d'una activitat,, també s'hi han contemplat aspectes i detalls relacionats amb l'execució de la mateixa, al tractar-se d'unes obres d'una certa complexitat i considerant que així es tracten amb més detall i rigorositat les actuacions projectades. En concret, en aquest projecte es planifiquen les operacions de rehabilitació de dues naus ramaderes actualment en desús, per tal que puguin destinar-se a l'explotació ramadera de bestiar cabrú i a la formatgeria artesanal, projectant-se així mateix totes les instal•lacions necessàries per tal que a les mencionades naus s'hi puguin desenvolupar les activitats citades. Com a conclusions més importants d'aquest projecte podem dir que amb un cens de 100 caps de bestiar cabrú és possible obtenir una producció mitjana de llet de 32.500 litres anuals, que es corresponen a un volum total de 3.823 quilograms de formatge a l'any (de les tipologies Formatge Garrotxa i Formatge de cabra amb oli, ambdues varietats tradicionals catalanes) obtenint un benefici de 21.389,47 Euros/any durant els primers 15 anys i un benefici de 33.386,39 Euros/any a partir del 16è any, cosa que permetrà recuperar la inversió inicial de 172.716,76 Euros que valen les naus i instal•lacions projectades, en un termini de 8 anys i permetrà, com s'ha dit, ocupar un nínxol de mercat encara poc explotat per la indústria agroalimentària a Catalunya.

The adaptive dynamics of niche constructing traits in spatially subdivided populations: evolving posthumous extended phenotypes.

Niche construction, by which organisms modify the environment in which they live, has been proposed to affect the evolution of many phenotypic traits. But what about the evolution of a niche constructing trait itself, whose expression changes the pattern of natural selection to which the trait is exposed in subsequent generations? This article provides an inclusive fitness analysis of selection on niche constructing phenotypes, which can affect their environment from local to global scales in arbitrarily spatially subdivided populations. The model shows that phenotypic effects of genes extending far beyond the life span of the actor can be affected by natural selection, provided they modify the fitness of those individuals living in the future that are likely to have inherited the niche construction lineage of the actor. Present benefits of behaviors are thus traded off against future indirect costs. The future costs will generally result from a complicated interplay of phenotypic effects, population demography and environmental dynamics. To illustrate these points, I derive the adaptive dynamics of a trait involved in the consumption of an abiotic resource, where resource abundance in future generations feeds back to the evolutionary dynamics of the trait.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi: genetics of multigenomic, clonal networks and its ecological consequences

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are thought to have remained asexual for 400 million years although recent studies have suggested that considerable genetic and phenotypic variation could potentially exist in populations. A brief discussion of these multigenomic organisms is presented. (C) 2003 The Linnean Society of London.

Genetic diversity and ecological success of Staphylococcus aureus strains colonizing humans.

The genetic determinants and phenotypic traits which make a Staphylococcus aureus strain a successful colonizer are largely unknown. The genetic diversity and population structure of 133 S. aureus isolates from healthy, generally risk-free adult carriers were investigated using four different typing methods: multilocus sequence typing (MLST), amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis (AFLP), double-locus sequence typing (DLST), and spa typing were compared. Carriage isolates displayed great genetic diversity which could only be revealed fully by DLST. Results of AFLP and MLST were highly concordant in the delineation of genotypic clusters of closely related isolates, roughly equivalent to clonal complexes. spa typing and DLST provided considerably less phylogenetic information. The resolution of spa typing was similar to that of AFLP and inferior to that of DLST. AFLP proved to be the most universal method, combining a phylogeny-building capacity similar to that of MLST with a much higher resolution. However, it had a lower reproducibility than sequencing-based MLST, DLST, and spa typing. We found two cases of methicillin-resistant S. aureus colonization, both of which were most likely associated with employment at a health service. Of 21 genotypic clusters detected, 2 were most prevalent: cluster 45 and cluster 30 each colonized 24% of the carrier population. The number of bacteria found in nasal samples varied significantly among the clusters, but the most prevalent clusters were not particularly numerous in the nasal samples. We did not find much evidence that genotypic clusters were associated with different carrier characteristics, such as age, sex, medical conditions, or antibiotic use. This may provide empirical support for the idea that genetic clusters in bacteria are maintained in the absence of adaptation to different niches. Alternatively, carrier characteristics other than those evaluated here or factors other than human hosts may exert selective pressure maintaining genotypic clusters.