Discrete Time Bisexual Branching Processes in Varying Environments

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80

Implementing an agent-based model with a spatial visual display in discrete-event simulation software

There has been an increasing interest in the use of agent-based simulation and some discussion of the relative merits of this approach as compared to discrete-event simulation. There are differing views on whether an agent-based simulation offers capabilities that discrete-event cannot provide or whether all agent-based applications can at least in theory be undertaken using a discrete-event approach. This paper presents a simple agent-based NetLogo model and corresponding discrete-event versions implemented in the widely used ARENA software. The two versions of the discrete-event model presented use a traditional process flow approach normally adopted in discrete-event simulation software and also an agent-based approach to the model build. In addition a real-time spatial visual display facility is provided using a spreadsheet platform controlled by VBA code embedded within the ARENA model. Initial findings from this investigation are that discrete-event simulation can indeed be used to implement agent-based models and with suitable integration elements such as VBA provide the spatial displays associated with agent-based software.

Non-uniqueness through duality in the von Neumann growth models

Duality can be viewed as the soul of each von Neumann growth model. This is not at all surprising because von Neumann (1955), a mathematical genius, extensively studied quantum mechanics which involves a “dual nature” (electromagnetic waves and discrete corpuscules or light quanta). This may have had some influence on developing his own economic duality concept. The main object of this paper is to restore the spirit of economic duality in the investigations of the multiple von Neumann equilibria. By means of the (ir)reducibility taxonomy in Móczár (1995) the author transforms the primal canonical decomposition given by Bromek (1974) in the von Neumann growth model into the synergistic primal and dual canonical decomposition. This enables us to obtain all the information about the steadily maintainable states of growth sustained by the compatible price-constellations at each distinct expansion factor.

Study of the calibration method of pressure-velocity probes and its application in a field of progressive plane waves

This dissertation presents a calibration procedure for a pressure velocity probe. The dissertation is divided into four main chapters. The first chapter is divided into six main sections. In the firsts two, the wave equation in fluids and the velocity of sound in gases are calculated, the third section contains a general solution of the wave equation in the case of plane acoustic waves. Section four and five report the definition of the acoustic impedance and admittance, and the practical units the sound level is measured with, i.e. the decibel scale. Finally, the last section of the chapter is about the theory linked to the frequency analysis of a sound wave and includes the analysis of sound in bands and the discrete Fourier analysis, with the definition of some important functions. The second chapter describes different reference field calibration procedures that are used to calibrate the P-V probes, between them the progressive plane wave method, which is that has been used in this work. Finally, the last section of the chapter contains a description of the working principles of the two transducers that have been used, with a focus on the velocity one. The third chapter of the dissertation is devoted to the explanation of the calibration set up and the instruments used for the data acquisition and analysis. Since software routines were extremely important, this chapter includes a dedicated section on them and the proprietary routines most used are thoroughly explained. Finally, there is the description of the work that has been done, which is identified with three different phases, where the data acquired and the results obtained are presented. All the graphs and data reported were obtained through the Matlab® routine. As for the last chapter, it briefly presents all the work that has been done as well as an excursus on a new probe and on the way the procedure implemented in this dissertation could be applied in the case of a general field.

Sensor Planning for Bayesian Nonparametric Target Modeling

Bayesian nonparametric models, such as the Gaussian process and the Dirichlet process, have been extensively applied for target kinematics modeling in various applications including environmental monitoring, traffic planning, endangered species tracking, dynamic scene analysis, autonomous robot navigation, and human motion modeling. As shown by these successful applications, Bayesian nonparametric models are able to adjust their complexities adaptively from data as necessary, and are resistant to overfitting or underfitting. However, most existing works assume that the sensor measurements used to learn the Bayesian nonparametric target kinematics models are obtained a priori or that the target kinematics can be measured by the sensor at any given time throughout the task. Little work has been done for controlling the sensor with bounded field of view to obtain measurements of mobile targets that are most informative for reducing the uncertainty of the Bayesian nonparametric models. To present the systematic sensor planning approach to leaning Bayesian nonparametric models, the Gaussian process target kinematics model is introduced at first, which is capable of describing time-invariant spatial phenomena, such as ocean currents, temperature distributions and wind velocity fields. The Dirichlet process-Gaussian process target kinematics model is subsequently discussed for modeling mixture of mobile targets, such as pedestrian motion patterns.

Novel information theoretic functions are developed for these introduced Bayesian nonparametric target kinematics models to represent the expected utility of measurements as a function of sensor control inputs and random environmental variables. A Gaussian process expected Kullback Leibler divergence is developed as the expectation of the KL divergence between the current (prior) and posterior Gaussian process target kinematics models with respect to the future measurements. Then, this approach is extended to develop a new information value function that can be used to estimate target kinematics described by a Dirichlet process-Gaussian process mixture model. A theorem is proposed that shows the novel information theoretic functions are bounded. Based on this theorem, efficient estimators of the new information theoretic functions are designed, which are proved to be unbiased with the variance of the resultant approximation error decreasing linearly as the number of samples increases. Computational complexities for optimizing the novel information theoretic functions under sensor dynamics constraints are studied, and are proved to be NP-hard. A cumulative lower bound is then proposed to reduce the computational complexity to polynomial time.

Three sensor planning algorithms are developed according to the assumptions on the target kinematics and the sensor dynamics. For problems where the control space of the sensor is discrete, a greedy algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the greedy algorithm is demonstrated by a numerical experiment with data of ocean currents obtained by moored buoys. A sweep line algorithm is developed for applications where the sensor control space is continuous and unconstrained. Synthetic simulations as well as physical experiments with ground robots and a surveillance camera are conducted to evaluate the performance of the sweep line algorithm. Moreover, a lexicographic algorithm is designed based on the cumulative lower bound of the novel information theoretic functions, for the scenario where the sensor dynamics are constrained. Numerical experiments with real data collected from indoor pedestrians by a commercial pan-tilt camera are performed to examine the lexicographic algorithm. Results from both the numerical simulations and the physical experiments show that the three sensor planning algorithms proposed in this dissertation based on the novel information theoretic functions are superior at learning the target kinematics with

little or no prior knowledge

On the Advancement of Probabilistic Models of Decompression Sickness

The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.

The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.

We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.

Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.

Parametric CAD model based shape optimization using adjoint functions

Adjoint methods have proven to be an efficient way of calculating the gradient of an objective function with respect to a shape parameter for optimisation, with a computational cost nearly independent of the number of the design variables [1]. The approach in this paper links the adjoint surface sensitivities (gradient of objective function with respect to the surface movement) with the parametric design velocities (movement of the surface due to a CAD parameter perturbation) in order to compute the gradient of the objective function with respect to CAD variables.
For a successful implementation of shape optimization strategies in practical industrial cases, the choice of design variables or parameterisation scheme used for the model to be optimized plays a vital role. Where the goal is to base the optimization on a CAD model the choices are to use a NURBS geometry generated from CAD modelling software, where the position of the NURBS control points are the optimisation variables [2] or to use the feature based CAD model with all of the construction history to preserve the design intent [3]. The main advantage of using the feature based model is that the optimized model produced can be directly used for the downstream applications including manufacturing and process planning.
This paper presents an approach for optimization based on the feature based CAD model, which uses CAD parameters defining the features in the model geometry as the design variables. In order to capture the CAD surface movement with respect to the change in design variable, the “Parametric Design Velocity” is calculated, which is defined as the movement of the CAD model boundary in the normal direction due to a change in the parameter value.
The approach presented here for calculating the design velocities represents an advancement in terms of capability and robustness of that described by Robinson et al. [3]. The process can be easily integrated to most industrial optimisation workflows and is immune to the topology and labelling issues highlighted by other CAD based optimisation processes. It considers every continuous (“real value”) parameter type as an optimisation variable, and it can be adapted to work with any CAD modelling software, as long as it has an API which provides access to the values of the parameters which control the model shape and allows the model geometry to be exported. To calculate the movement of the boundary the methodology employs finite differences on the shape of the 3D CAD models before and after the parameter perturbation. The implementation procedure includes calculating the geometrical movement along a normal direction between two discrete representations of the original and perturbed geometry respectively. Parametric design velocities can then be directly linked with adjoint surface sensitivities to extract the gradients to use in a gradient-based optimization algorithm.
The optimisation of a flow optimisation problem is presented, in which the power dissipation of the flow in an automotive air duct is to be reduced by changing the parameters of the CAD geometry created in CATIA V5. The flow sensitivities are computed with the continuous adjoint method for a laminar and turbulent flow [4] and are combined with the parametric design velocities to compute the cost function gradients. A line-search algorithm is then used to update the design variables and proceed further with optimisation process.

Model reduction for nonlinear aerodynamics and aeroelasticity using a Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method

A novel surrogate model is proposed in lieu of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, for fast nonlinear aerodynamic and aeroelastic modeling. A nonlinear function is identified on selected interpolation points by
a discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM). The flow field is then reconstructed using a least square approximation of the flow modes extracted
by proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The aeroelastic reduce order
model (ROM) is completed by introducing a nonlinear mapping function
between displacements and the DEIM points. The proposed model is investigated to predict the aerodynamic forces due to forced motions using
a N ACA 0012 airfoil undergoing a prescribed pitching oscillation. To investigate aeroelastic problems at transonic conditions, a pitch/plunge airfoil
and a cropped delta wing aeroelastic models are built using linear structural models. The presence of shock-waves triggers the appearance of limit
cycle oscillations (LCO), which the model is able to predict. For all cases
tested, the new ROM shows the ability to replicate the nonlinear aerodynamic forces, structural displacements and reconstruct the complete flow
field with sufficient accuracy at a fraction of the cost of full order CFD
model.

GPS inferred velocity and strain rate fields in eastern Canada

La vallée du fleuve Saint-Laurent, dans l’est du Canada, est l’une des régions sismiques les plus actives dans l’est de l’Amérique du Nord et est caractérisée par de nombreux tremblements de terre intraplaques. Après la rotation rigide de la plaque tectonique, l’ajustement isostatique glaciaire est de loin la plus grande source de signal géophysique dans l’est du Canada. Les déformations et les vitesses de déformation de la croûte terrestre de cette région ont été étudiées en utilisant plus de 14 ans d’observations (9 ans en moyenne) de 112 stations GPS fonctionnant en continu. Le champ de vitesse a été obtenu à partir de séries temporelles de coordonnées GPS quotidiennes nettoyées en appliquant un modèle combiné utilisant une pondération par moindres carrés. Les vitesses ont été estimées avec des modèles de bruit qui incluent les corrélations temporelles des séries temporelles des coordonnées tridimensionnelles. Le champ de vitesse horizontale montre la rotation antihoraire de la plaque nord-américaine avec une vitesse moyenne de 16,8±0,7 mm/an dans un modèle sans rotation nette (no-net-rotation) par rapport à l’ITRF2008. Le champ de vitesse verticale confirme un soulèvement dû à l’ajustement isostatique glaciaire partout dans l’est du Canada avec un taux maximal de 13,7±1,2 mm/an et un affaissement vers le sud, principalement au nord des États-Unis, avec un taux typique de −1 à −2 mm/an et un taux minimum de −2,7±1,4 mm/an. Le comportement du bruit des séries temporelles des coordonnées GPS tridimensionnelles a été analysé en utilisant une analyse spectrale et la méthode du maximum de vraisemblance pour tester cinq modèles de bruit: loi de puissance; bruit blanc; bruit blanc et bruit de scintillation; bruit blanc et marche aléatoire; bruit blanc, bruit de scintillation et marche aléatoire. Les résultats montrent que la combinaison bruit blanc et bruit de scintillation est le meilleur modèle pour décrire la partie stochastique des séries temporelles. Les amplitudes de tous les modèles de bruit sont plus faibles dans la direction nord et plus grandes dans la direction verticale. Les amplitudes du bruit blanc sont à peu près égales à travers la zone d’étude et sont donc surpassées, dans toutes les directions, par le bruit de scintillation et de marche aléatoire. Le modèle de bruit de scintillation augmente l’incertitude des vitesses estimées par un facteur de 5 à 38 par rapport au modèle de bruit blanc. Les vitesses estimées de tous les modèles de bruit sont statistiquement cohérentes. Les paramètres estimés du pôle eulérien de rotation pour cette région sont légèrement, mais significativement, différents de la rotation globale de la plaque nord-américaine. Cette différence reflète potentiellement les contraintes locales dans cette région sismique et les contraintes causées par la différence des vitesses intraplaques entre les deux rives du fleuve Saint-Laurent. La déformation de la croûte terrestre de la région a été étudiée en utilisant la méthode de collocation par moindres carrés. Les vitesses horizontales interpolées montrent un mouvement cohérent spatialement: soit un mouvement radial vers l’extérieur pour les centres de soulèvement maximal au nord et un mouvement radial vers l’intérieur pour les centres d’affaissement maximal au sud, avec une vitesse typique de 1 à 1,6±0,4 mm/an. Cependant, ce modèle devient plus complexe près des marges des anciennes zones glaciaires. Basées selon leurs directions, les vitesses horizontales intraplaques peuvent être divisées en trois zones distinctes. Cela confirme les conclusions d’autres chercheurs sur l’existence de trois dômes de glace dans la région d’étude avant le dernier maximum glaciaire. Une corrélation spatiale est observée entre les zones de vitesses horizontales intraplaques de magnitude plus élevée et les zones sismiques le long du fleuve Saint-Laurent. Les vitesses verticales ont ensuite été interpolées pour modéliser la déformation verticale. Le modèle montre un taux de soulèvement maximal de 15,6 mm/an au sud-est de la baie d’Hudson et un taux d’affaissement typique de 1 à 2 mm/an au sud, principalement dans le nord des États-Unis. Le long du fleuve Saint-Laurent, les mouvements horizontaux et verticaux sont cohérents spatialement. Il y a un déplacement vers le sud-est d’une magnitude d’environ 1,3 mm/an et un soulèvement moyen de 3,1 mm/an par rapport à la plaque l’Amérique du Nord. Le taux de déformation verticale est d’environ 2,4 fois plus grand que le taux de déformation horizontale intraplaque. Les résultats de l’analyse de déformation montrent l’état actuel de déformation dans l’est du Canada sous la forme d’une expansion dans la partie nord (la zone se soulève) et d’une compression dans la partie sud (la zone s’affaisse). Les taux de rotation sont en moyenne de 0,011°/Ma. Nous avons observé une compression NNO-SSE avec un taux de 3.6 à 8.1 nstrain/an dans la zone sismique du Bas-Saint-Laurent. Dans la zone sismique de Charlevoix, une expansion avec un taux de 3,0 à 7,1 nstrain/an est orientée ENE-OSO. Dans la zone sismique de l’Ouest du Québec, la déformation a un mécanisme de cisaillement avec un taux de compression de 1,0 à 5,1 nstrain/an et un taux d’expansion de 1.6 à 4.1 nstrain/an. Ces mesures sont conformes, au premier ordre, avec les modèles d’ajustement isostatique glaciaire et avec la contrainte de compression horizontale maximale du projet World Stress Map, obtenue à partir de la théorie des mécanismes focaux (focal mechanism method).

Discrete-event Simulation and Optimization to Improve the Performance of a Healthcare System

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Structure learning of context-specific graphical models

Abstract The ultimate problem considered in this thesis is modeling a high-dimensional joint distribution over a set of discrete variables. For this purpose, we consider classes of context-specific graphical models and the main emphasis is on learning the structure of such models from data. Traditional graphical models compactly represent a joint distribution through a factorization justi ed by statements of conditional independence which are encoded by a graph structure. Context-speci c independence is a natural generalization of conditional independence that only holds in a certain context, speci ed by the conditioning variables. We introduce context-speci c generalizations of both Bayesian networks and Markov networks by including statements of context-specific independence which can be encoded as a part of the model structures. For the purpose of learning context-speci c model structures from data, we derive score functions, based on results from Bayesian statistics, by which the plausibility of a structure is assessed. To identify high-scoring structures, we construct stochastic and deterministic search algorithms designed to exploit the structural decomposition of our score functions. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that the increased exibility of context-specific structures can more accurately emulate the dependence structure among the variables and thereby improve the predictive accuracy of the models.

Formulation and analysis of a diffusion-velocity particle model for transport-dispersion equations

The modelling of diffusive terms in particle methods is a delicate matter and several models were proposed in the literature to take such terms into account. The diffusion velocity method (DVM), originally designed for the diffusion of passive scalars, turns diffusive terms into convective ones by expressing them as a divergence involving a so-called diffusion velocity. In this paper, DVM is extended to the diffusion of vectorial quantities in the three-dimensional Navier–Stokes equations, in their incompressible, velocity–vorticity formulation. The integration of a large eddy simulation (LES) turbulence model is investigated and a DVM general formulation is proposed. Either with or without LES, a novel expression of the diffusion velocity is derived, which makes it easier to approximate and which highlights the analogy with the original formulation for scalar transport. From this statement, DVM is then analysed in one dimension, both analytically and numerically on test cases to point out its good behaviour.

Heat transfer performance investigation of nanofluids flow in pipe

Different types of base fluids, such as water, engine oil, kerosene, ethanol, methanol, ethylene glycol etc. are usually used to increase the heat transfer performance in many engineering applications. But these conventional heat transfer fluids have often several limitations. One of those major limitations is that the thermal conductivity of each of these base fluids is very low and this results a lower heat transfer rate in thermal engineering systems. Such limitation also affects the performance of different equipments used in different heat transfer process industries. To overcome such an important drawback, researchers over the years have considered a new generation heat transfer fluid, simply known as nanofluid with higher thermal conductivity. This new generation heat transfer fluid is a mixture of nanometre-size particles and different base fluids. Different researchers suggest that adding spherical or cylindrical shape of uniform/non-uniform nanoparticles into a base fluid can remarkably increase the thermal conductivity of nanofluid. Such augmentation of thermal conductivity could play a more significant role in enhancing the heat transfer rate than that of the base fluid. Nanoparticles diameters used in nanofluid are usually considered to be less than or equal to 100 nm and the nanoparticles concentration usually varies from 5% to 10%. Different researchers mentioned that the smaller nanoparticles concentration with size diameter of 100 nm could enhance the heat transfer rate more significantly compared to that of base fluids. But it is not obvious what effect it will have on the heat transfer performance when nanofluids contain small size nanoparticles of less than 100 nm with different concentrations. Besides, the effect of static and moving nanoparticles on the heat transfer of nanofluid is not known too. The idea of moving nanoparticles brings the effect of Brownian motion of nanoparticles on the heat transfer. The aim of this work is, therefore, to investigate the heat transfer performance of nanofluid using a combination of smaller size of nanoparticles with different concentrations considering the Brownian motion of nanoparticles. A horizontal pipe has been considered as a physical system within which the above mentioned nanofluid performances are investigated under transition to turbulent flow conditions. Three different types of numerical models, such as single phase model, Eulerian-Eulerian multi-phase mixture model and Eulerian-Lagrangian discrete phase model have been used while investigating the performance of nanofluids. The most commonly used model is single phase model which is based on the assumption that nanofluids behave like a conventional fluid. The other two models are used when the interaction between solid and fluid particles is considered. However, two different phases, such as fluid and solid phases is also considered in the Eulerian-Eulerian multi-phase mixture model. Thus, these phases create a fluid-solid mixture. But, two phases in the Eulerian-Lagrangian discrete phase model are independent. One of them is a solid phase and the other one is a fluid phase. In addition, RANS (Reynolds Average Navier Stokes) based Standard κ-ω and SST κ-ω transitional models have been used for the simulation of transitional flow. While the RANS based Standard κ-ϵ, Realizable κ-ϵ and RNG κ-ϵ turbulent models are used for the simulation of turbulent flow. Hydrodynamic as well as temperature behaviour of transition to turbulent flows of nanofluids through the horizontal pipe is studied under a uniform heat flux boundary condition applied to the wall with temperature dependent thermo-physical properties for both water and nanofluids. Numerical results characterising the performances of velocity and temperature fields are presented in terms of velocity and temperature contours, turbulent kinetic energy contours, surface temperature, local and average Nusselt numbers, Darcy friction factor, thermal performance factor and total entropy generation. New correlations are also proposed for the calculation of average Nusselt number for both the single and multi-phase models. Result reveals that the combination of small size of nanoparticles and higher nanoparticles concentrations with the Brownian motion of nanoparticles shows higher heat transfer enhancement and thermal performance factor than those of water. Literature suggests that the use of nanofluids flow in an inclined pipe at transition to turbulent regimes has been ignored despite its significance in real-life applications. Therefore, a particular investigation has been carried out in this thesis with a view to understand the heat transfer behaviour and performance of an inclined pipe under transition flow condition. It is found that the heat transfer rate decreases with the increase of a pipe inclination angle. Also, a higher heat transfer rate is found for a horizontal pipe under forced convection than that of an inclined pipe under mixed convection.

Savani: A variable resolution whole-mantle model of anisotropic shear velocity variations based on multiple data sets

International audience

Parameterization of quasigeostrophic eddies in primitive equation ocean models

A parameterization of mesoscale eddy fluxes in the ocean should be consistent with the fact that the ocean interior is nearly adiabatic. Gent and McWilliams have described a framework in which this can be approximated in L-coordinate primitive equation models by incorporating the effects of eddies on the buoyancy field through an eddy-induced velocity. It is also natural to base a parameterization on the simple picture of the mixing of potential vorticity in the interior and the mixing of buoyancy at the surface. The authors discuss the various constraints imposed by these two requirements and attempt to clarify the appropriate boundary conditions on the eddy-induced velocities at the surface. Quasigeostrophic theory is used as a guide to the simplest way of satisfying these constraints.