Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gamma-band oscillations in fronto-central areas during performance of a sensorimotor integration task: A qEEG coherence study

This study aimed to elucidate electrophysiological and cortical mechanisms involved in anticipatory actions when 23 healthy right-handed subjects had to catch a free falling object by qEEG gamma-band (30-100 Hz). It is involved in cognitive processes, memory, spatial/temporal and proprioceptive factors. Our hypothesis is that an increase in gamma coherence in frontal areas will be observed during moment preceding ball drop, due to their involvement in attention, planning, selection of movements, preparation and voluntary control of action and in central areas during moment after ball drop, due to their involvement in motor preparation, perception and execution of movement. However, through a paired t-test, we found an increase in gamma coherence for F3-F4 electrode pair during moment preceding ball drop and confirmed our hypothesis for C3-C4 electrode pair. We conclude that gamma plays an important role in reflecting binding of several brain areas in a complex motor task as observed in our results. Moreover, for selection of movements, preparation and voluntary control of action, motor preparation, perception and execution of movement, the integration of somatosensory and visual information is mandatory. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of spatial definition on the allocation of clients to screening clinics

We compared four strategies for inviting 91,456 women aged 50-69 years to one of six clinics for mammography screening and 40,142 men aged 60-79 years to one of 10 clinics for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening. The strategies were invitation to the clinic nearest to the client and invitation to the clinic nearest to the client's area of residence defined by census small area, postcode and local government area. For each strategy we calculated the expected demand at each clinic and the travel distances for clients. We found that when women were allocated to mammography clinics on the basis of the local government area instead of their individual address, expected demand at one clinic increased by 60%, and 19% of clients were invited to attend a more remote clinic, entailing 99,000 km of additional travel. Similar results were obtained for men allocated to AAA clinics by their postcode of residence instead of their individual address: 55% difference in expected demand, 13% to a more remote clinic and 60,000 km of extra travel. Allocation on the basis of small areas did not show such great differences, except for travel distance, which was about 5% higher for each clinic type. We recommend that allocation of clients to screening clinics be made according to residential address, that assessment of the location of clinics be based on distances between residences and nearest clinic, but that planning new locations for clinics be aided with spatial analysis tools using small area demographic and social data. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Study of the spatial distribution of the absorbed dose in blood volumes irradiated using a teletherapy unit

Blood irradiation can be performed using a dedicated blood irradiator or a teletherapy unit. A thermal device providing appropriate storage conditions during blood components irradiation with a teletherapy unit has been recently proposed. However, the most appropriated volume of the thermal device was not indicated. The goal of this study was to indicate the most appropriated blood volume for irradiation using a teletherapy unit in order to minimize both the dose heterogeneity in the volume and the blood irradiation time using these equipments. Theoretical and experimental methods were used to study the dose distribution in the blood volume irradiated using a linear accelerator and a cobalt-60 therapy machine. The calculation of absorbed doses in the middle plane of cylindrical acrylic volumes was accomplished by a treatment planning system. Experimentally, we also used cylindrical acrylic phantoms and thermoluminescent dosimeters to confirm the calculated doses. The data obtained were represented by isodose curves. We observed that an irradiation volume should have a height of 28 cm and a diameter of 28 cm and a height of 35 cm and a diameter of 35 cm, when the irradiation is to be performed by a linear accelerator and a cobalt-60 teletherapy unit, respectively. Calculated values of relative doses varied from 93% to 100% in the smaller volume, and from 66% to 100% in the largest one. A difference of 5.0%, approximately, was observed between calculated and experimental data. The size of these volumes permits the irradiation of blood bags in only one bath without compromising the homogeneity of the absorbed dose over the irradiated volume. Thus, these irradiation volumes can be recommend to minimize the irradiation time when a teletherapy unit is used to irradiate blood. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using a cartographic modeling language to manipulate spectral satellite imagery

Land related information about the Earth's surface is commonIJ found in two forms: (1) map infornlation and (2) satellite image da ta. Satellite imagery provides a good visual picture of what is on the ground but complex image processing is required to interpret features in an image scene. Increasingly, methods are being sought to integrate the knowledge embodied in mop information into the interpretation task, or, alternatively, to bypass interpretation and perform biophysical modeling directly on derived data sources. A cartographic modeling language, as a generic map analysis package, is suggested as a means to integrate geographical knowledge and imagery in a process-oriented view of the Earth. Specialized cartographic models may be developed by users, which incorporate mapping information in performing land classification. In addition, a cartographic modeling language may be enhanced with operators suited to processing remotely sensed imagery. We demonstrate the usefulness of a cartographic modeling language for pre-processing satellite imagery, and define two nerv cartographic operators that evaluate image neighborhoods as post-processing operations to interpret thematic map values. The language and operators are demonstrated with an example image classification task.

Finite difference time domain (FDTD) method for modeling the effect of switched gradients on the human body in MRI

Numerical modeling of the eddy currents induced in the human body by the pulsed field gradients in MRI presents a difficult computational problem. It requires an efficient and accurate computational method for high spatial resolution analyses with a relatively low input frequency. In this article, a new technique is described which allows the finite difference time domain (FDTD) method to be efficiently applied over a very large frequency range, including low frequencies. This is not the case in conventional FDTD-based methods. A method of implementing streamline gradients in FDTD is presented, as well as comparative analyses which show that the correct source injection in the FDTD simulation plays a crucial rule in obtaining accurate solutions. In particular, making use of the derivative of the input source waveform is shown to provide distinct benefits in accuracy over direct source injection. In the method, no alterations to the properties of either the source or the transmission media are required. The method is essentially frequency independent and the source injection method has been verified against examples with analytical solutions. Results are presented showing the spatial distribution of gradient-induced electric fields and eddy currents in a complete body model.

People Detection and Tracking using Depth Camera

In this paper we present a method for real-time detection and tracking of people in video captured by a depth camera. For each object to be assessed, an ordered sequence of values that represents the distances between its center of mass to the boundary points is calculated. The recognition is based on the analysis of the total distance value between the above sequence and some pre-defined human poses, after apply the Dynamic Time Warping. This similarity approach showed robust results in people detection.

Spatial variability of particle size fractions of an Oxisol cultivated with conilon coffee

Information on the spatial distribution of particle size fractions is essential for use planning and management of soils. The aim of this work to was to study the spatial variability of particle size fractions of a Typic Hapludox cultivated with conilon coffee. The soil samples were collected at depths of 0-0.20 and 0.20-0.40 m in the coffee canopy projection, totaling 109 georeferentiated points. At the depth of 0.2-0.4 m the clay fraction showed average value significantly higher, while the sand fraction showed was higher in the depth of 0-0.20 m. The silt showed no significant difference between the two depths. The particle size fractions showed medium and high spatial variability. The levels of total sand and clay have positive and negative correlation, respectively, with the altitude of the sampling points, indicating the influence of landscape configuration.

Preliminary clinical trial in percutaneous nephrolithotomy using a real-time navigation system for percutaneous kidney access

Background: Precise needle puncture of renal calyces is a challenging and essential step for successful percutaneous nephrolithotomy. This work tests and evaluates, through a clinical trial, a real-time navigation system to plan and guide percutaneous kidney puncture. Methods: A novel system, entitled i3DPuncture, was developed to aid surgeons in establishing the desired puncture site and the best virtual puncture trajectory, by gathering and processing data from a tracked needle with optical passive markers. In order to navigate and superimpose the needle to a preoperative volume, the patient, 3D image data and tracker system were previously registered intraoperatively using seven points that were strategically chosen based on rigid bone structures and nearby kidney area. In addition, relevant anatomical structures for surgical navigation were automatically segmented using a multi-organ segmentation algorithm that clusters volumes based on statistical properties and minimum description length criterion. For each cluster, a rendering transfer function enhanced the visualization of different organs and surrounding tissues. Results: One puncture attempt was sufficient to achieve a successful kidney puncture. The puncture took 265 seconds, and 32 seconds were necessary to plan the puncture trajectory. The virtual puncture path was followed correctively until the needle tip reached the desired kidney calyceal. Conclusions: This new solution provided spatial information regarding the needle inside the body and the possibility to visualize surrounding organs. It may offer a promising and innovative solution for percutaneous punctures.

Real-time hand tracking for rehabilitation and character animation

Hand and finger tracking has a major importance in healthcare, for rehabilitation of hand function required due to a neurological disorder, and in virtual environment applications, like characters animation for on-line games or movies. Current solutions consist mostly of motion tracking gloves with embedded resistive bend sensors that most often suffer from signal drift, sensor saturation, sensor displacement and complex calibration procedures. More advanced solutions provide better tracking stability, but at the expense of a higher cost. The proposed solution aims to provide the required precision, stability and feasibility through the combination of eleven inertial measurements units (IMUs). Each unit captures the spatial orientation of the attached body. To fully capture the hand movement, each finger encompasses two units (at the proximal and distal phalanges), plus one unit at the back of the hand. The proposed glove was validated in two distinct steps: a) evaluation of the sensors’ accuracy and stability over time; b) evaluation of the bending trajectories during usual finger flexion tasks based on the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). Results revealed that the glove was sensitive mainly to magnetic field distortions and sensors tuning. The inclusion of a hard and soft iron correction algorithm and accelerometer and gyro drift and temperature compensation methods provided increased stability and precision. Finger trajectories evaluation yielded high ICC values with an overall reliability within application’s satisfying limits. The developed low cost system provides a straightforward calibration and usability, qualifying the device for hand and finger tracking in healthcare and animation industries.

Role of malnutrition and parasite infections in the spatial variation in children’s anaemia risk in Northern Angola

Anaemia has a significant impact on child development and mortality and is a severe public health problem in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Nutritional and infectious causes of anaemia are geographically variable and anaemia maps based on information on the major aetiologies of anaemia are important for identifying communities most in need and the relative contribution of major causes. We investigated the consistency between ecological and individual-level approaches to anaemia mapping, by building spatial anaemia models for children aged ≤15 years using different modeling approaches. We aimed to a) quantify the role of malnutrition, malaria, Schistosoma haematobium and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) for anaemia endemicity in children aged ≤15 years and b) develop a high resolution predictive risk map of anaemia for the municipality of Dande in Northern Angola. We used parasitological survey data on children aged ≤15 years to build Bayesian geostatistical models of malaria (PfPR≤15), S. haematobium, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura and predict small-scale spatial variation in these infections. The predictions and their associated uncertainty were used as inputs for a model of anemia prevalence to predict small-scale spatial variation of anaemia. Stunting, PfPR≤15, and S. haematobium infections were significantly associated with anaemia risk. An estimated 12.5%, 15.6%, and 9.8%, of anaemia cases could be averted by treating malnutrition, malaria, S. haematobium, respectively. Spatial clusters of high risk of anaemia (>86%) were identified. Using an individual-level approach to anaemia mapping at a small spatial scale, we found that anaemia in children aged ≤15 years is highly heterogeneous and that malnutrition and parasitic infections are important contributors to the spatial variation in anemia risk. The results presented in this study can help inform the integration of the current provincial malaria control program with ancillary micronutrient supplementation and control of neglected tropical diseases, such as urogenital schistosomiasis and STH infection.

Monte Carlo modeling and simulations of the High Definition (HD120) micro MLC and validation against measurements for a 6 MV beam

Purpose: The most recent Varian® micro multileaf collimator(MLC), the High Definition (HD120) MLC, was modeled using the BEAMNRCMonte Carlo code. This model was incorporated into a Varian medical linear accelerator, for a 6 MV beam, in static and dynamic mode. The model was validated by comparing simulated profiles with measurements. Methods: The Varian® Trilogy® (2300C/D) accelerator model was accurately implemented using the state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulation program BEAMNRC and validated against off-axis and depth dose profiles measured using ionization chambers, by adjusting the energy and the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the initial electron beam. The HD120 MLC was modeled by developing a new BEAMNRC component module (CM), designated HDMLC, adapting the available DYNVMLC CM and incorporating the specific characteristics of this new micro MLC. The leaf dimensions were provided by the manufacturer. The geometry was visualized by tracing particles through the CM and recording their position when a leaf boundary is crossed. The leaf material density and abutting air gap between leaves were adjusted in order to obtain a good agreement between the simulated leakage profiles and EBT2 film measurements performed in a solid water phantom. To validate the HDMLC implementation, additional MLC static patterns were also simulated and compared to additional measurements. Furthermore, the ability to simulate dynamic MLC fields was implemented in the HDMLC CM. The simulation results of these fields were compared with EBT2 film measurements performed in a solid water phantom. Results: Overall, the discrepancies, with and without MLC, between the opened field simulations and the measurements using ionization chambers in a water phantom, for the off-axis profiles are below 2% and in depth-dose profiles are below 2% after the maximum dose depth and below 4% in the build-up region. On the conditions of these simulations, this tungsten-based MLC has a density of 18.7 g cm− 3 and an overall leakage of about 1.1 ± 0.03%. The discrepancies between the film measured and simulated closed and blocked fields are below 2% and 8%, respectively. Other measurements were performed for alternated leaf patterns and the agreement is satisfactory (to within 4%). The dynamic mode for this MLC was implemented and the discrepancies between film measurements and simulations are within 4%. Conclusions: The Varian® Trilogy® (2300 C/D) linear accelerator including the HD120 MLC was successfully modeled and simulated using the Monte CarloBEAMNRC code by developing an independent CM, the HDMLC CM, either in static and dynamic modes.

Mapping multi-species habitat use for marine conservation planning

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Biologia Marinha)

Ordenamento do território na cidade de Lisboa: o caso da Alta de Lisboa

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Edificações