825 resultados para confidence in sentencing


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The German chancellor and leader of the German conservative party, Angela Merkel, said in an interview a few weeks ago: “Nobody could have imagined a few months ago to what extent we would be pushed into state intervention programs. Of course, Merkel spoke on, this intervention is not easy for anybody. Therefore, she recommended turning back to the former course as soon as possible” (tagesschau.de, 11. März 2008, zit. nach Bildzeitungsinterview mit Angela Merkel, own translation). The worldwide celebrated new president of the United States, Barack Obama, said in an interview on CBS-News a few weeks before Merkel: “(...) there's no doubt that we have not been able yet to reset the confidence in the financial markets and in the consumer markets and among businesses that allow the economy to move forward in a strong way. And my job as president is gonna be to make sure that we restore that confidence“ (CBS News, 16. November 2008, Obama On Economic Crisis, Transition; http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/11/16/60minutes/main4607893.shtml; Stand: 16. April 2009).

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Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

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Similar to other health care processes, referrals are susceptible to breakdowns. These breakdowns in the referral process can lead to poor continuity of care, slow diagnostic processes, delays and repetition of tests, patient and provider dissatisfaction, and can lead to a loss of confidence in providers. These facts and the necessity for a deeper understanding of referrals in healthcare served as the motivation to conduct a comprehensive study of referrals. The research began with the real problem and need to understand referral communication as a mean to improve patient care. Despite previous efforts to explain referrals and the dynamics and interrelations of the variables that influence referrals there is not a common, contemporary, and accepted definition of what a referral is in the health care context. The research agenda was guided by the need to explore referrals as an abstract concept by: 1) developing a conceptual definition of referrals, and 2) developing a model of referrals, to finally propose a 3) comprehensive research framework. This dissertation has resulted in a standard conceptual definition of referrals and a model of referrals. In addition a mixed-method framework to evaluate referrals was proposed, and finally a data driven model was developed to predict whether a referral would be approved or denied by a specialty service. The three manuscripts included in this dissertation present the basis for studying and assessing referrals using a common framework that should allow an easier comparative research agenda to improve referrals taking into account the context where referrals occur.

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Tobacco use is a major health hazard, and the onset of tobacco use occurs almost entirely in the teenage years. For this reason, schools are an ideal site for tobacco prevention programs. Although studies have shown that effective school-based tobacco prevention programs exist, all too frequently these programs are not used. In order for effective programs to achieve their potential impact, strategies for speeding the diffusion of these programs to school districts and seeing that, once adopted, programs are implemented as they are intended, must be developed and tested.^ This study (SC2) set out to replicate the findings of an earlier quasi-experimental study (The Smart Choices Diffusion Study, or SC1) in which strategies based on diffusion theory and social learning theory were found to be effective in encouraging adoption and implementation of an effective tobacco prevention program in schools. To increase awareness and encourage adoption, intervention strategies in both studies utilized opinion leaders, messages highlighting positive aspects of the program, and modeling of benefits and effective use through videotape and newsletters. To encourage accurate implementation of the curriculum, teacher training for the two studies utilized videotaped modeling and practice of activities by teachers. SC2 subjects were 38 school districts that make up one of Texas' 20 education service regions. These districts had served as the comparison group in SC1, and findings for the SC1 comparison and intervention groups were utilized as historic controls.^ SC2 achieved a 76.3% adoption rate and found that an average of 84% of the curriculum was taught with an 82% fidelity to methods utilized by the curriculum. These rates and rates for implementation of dissemination strategies were equal to or greater than corresponding rates for SC1. The proportion of teachers implementing the curriculum in SC2 was found to be equal to SC1's video-trained districts but lower than the SC1 workshop-trained group.^ SC2's findings corroborate and support the findings from the earlier study, and increase our confidence in its findings. Taken together, the findings from SC2 and SC1 point to the effectiveness of their theory-based intervention strategies in encouraging adoption and accurate implementation of the tobacco prevention curriculum. ^

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Motivated by the reported dearth of debris discs around M stars, we use survival models to study the occurrence of planetesimal discs around them. These survival models describe a planetesimal disc with a small number of parameters, determine if it may survive a series of dynamical processes and compute the associated infrared excess. For the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite, we demonstrate that the dearth of debris discs around M stars may be attributed to the small semimajor axes generally probed if either: (1) the dust grains behave like blackbodies emitting at a peak wavelength coincident with the observed one; (2) or the grains are hotter than predicted by their blackbody temperatures and emit at peak wavelengths that are shorter than the observed one. At these small distances from the M star, planetesimals are unlikely to survive or persist for time-scales of 300 Myr or longer if the disc is too massive. Conversely, our survival models allow for the existence of a large population of low-mass debris discs that are too faint to be detected with current instruments. We gain further confidence in our interpretation by demonstrating the ability to compute infrared excesses for Sun-like stars that are broadly consistent with reported values in the literature. However, our interpretation becomes less clear and large infrared excesses are allowed if only one of these scenarios holds: (3) the dust grains are hotter than blackbody and predominantly emit at the observed wavelength; (4) or are blackbody in nature and emit at peak wavelengths longer than the observed one. Both scenarios imply that the parent planetesimals reside at larger distances from the star than inferred if the dust grains behaved like blackbodies. In all scenarios, we show that the infrared excesses detected at 22 μm (via WISE) and 70 μm (via Spitzer) from AU Mic are easily reconciled with its young age (12 Myr). Conversely, the existence of the old debris disc (2–8 Gyr) from GJ 581 is due to the large semimajor axes probed by the Herschel PACS instrument. We elucidate the conditions under which stellar wind drag may be neglected when considering dust populations around M stars. The WISE satellite should be capable of detecting debris discs around young M stars with ages ∼10 Myr.

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Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

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BACKGROUND Clinicians involved in medical errors can experience significant distress. This study aims to examine (1) how medical errors impact anaesthesiologists in key work and life domains; (2) anaesthesiologists' attitudes regarding support after errors; (3) and which anaesthesiologists are most affected by errors. METHODS This study is a mailed cross-sectional survey completed by 281 of the 542 clinically active anaesthesiologists (52% response rate) working at Switzerland's five university hospitals between July 2012 and April 2013. RESULTS Respondents reported that errors had negatively affected anxiety about future errors (51%), confidence in their ability as a doctor (45%), ability to sleep (36%), job satisfaction (32%), and professional reputation (9%). Respondents' lives were more likely to be affected as error severity increased. Ninety per cent of respondents disagreed that hospitals adequately support them in coping with the stress associated with medical errors. Nearly all of the respondents (92%) reported being interested in psychological counselling after a serious error, but many identified barriers to seeking counselling. However, there were significant differences between departments regarding error-related stress levels and attitudes about error-related support. Respondents were more likely to experience certain distress if they were female, older, had previously been involved in a serious error, and were dissatisfied with their last error disclosure. CONCLUSION Medical errors, even minor errors and near misses, can have a serious effect on clinicians. Health-care organisations need to do more to support clinicians in coping with the stress associated with medical errors.

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Recent sociological studies show that over short time periods the large day-to-day, month-to-month or year-to-year variations in weather at a specific location can influence and potentially bias our perception of climate change, a more long-term and global phenomenon. By weighting local temperature anomalies with the number of people that experience them and considering longer time periods, we illustrate that the share of the world population exposed to warmer-than-normal temperatures has steadily increased during the past few decades. Therefore, warming is experienced by an increasing number of individuals, counter to what might be simply inferred from global mean temperature anomalies. This behaviour is well-captured by current climate models, offering an opportunity to increase confidence in future projections of climate change irrespective of the personal local perception of weather.

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In the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, scholars have begun to revise their conceptions of how market participants interact. While the traditional “rationalist optic” posits market participants who are able to process decisionrelevant information and thereby transform uncertainty into quantifiable risks, the increasingly popular “sociological optic” stresses the role of uncertainty in expectation formation and social conventions for creating confidence in markets. Applications of the sociological optic to concrete regulatory problems are still limited. By subjecting both optics to the same regulatory problem—the role of credit rating agencies (CRAs) and their ratings in capital markets—this paper provides insights into whether the sociological optic offers advice to tackle concrete regulatory problems and discusses the potential of the sociological optic in complementing the rationalist optic. The empirical application suggests that the sociological optic is not only able to improve our understanding of the role of CRAs and their ratings, but also to provide solutions complementary to those posited by the rationalist optic.

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BACKGROUND: Only a minority of people suffering from depression receive adequate treatment. Psychological Online Interventions (POIs) could help bridge existing treatment gaps and augment the effectiveness of current treatments. Apart from effectiveness, user acceptance of POIs must be achieved if such interventions are to be broadly implemented in existing health-care. Valid measurement tools examining attitudes towards POIs are lacking. Therefore, we examined the dimensionality of attitudes towards POIs, developed a novel questionnaire, the Attitudes towards Psychological Online Interventions Questionnaire (APOI), and gathered data to examine its reliability. METHODS: We recruited a sample of 1004 adults with mild to moderate depressive symptoms from a range of sources. We constructed a set of 35 items based on literature review as well as expert and patient queries. The initial items were subjected to an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) in a randomly selected subsample. A final set of 16 items was subjected to a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to cross-validate the factor structure in a separate subsample. RESULTS: The EFA revealed four dimensions: "Scepticism and Perception of Risks", "Confidence in Effectiveness", "Technologization Threat" and "Anonymity Benefits". The model fit in the CFA was excellent relating to all applied indices (χ(2)=105.816, p=.651; SRMR=.042; RMSEA=.013; CFI=.994) and the APOI total scale showed acceptable to good internal consistency. CONCLUSIONS: Further research with the APOI might facilitate the development and dissemination of POIs and, ultimately, help improve the quality of care for people experiencing depressive symptoms.

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OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to compare quantitative and semiquantitative parameters (signal-to-noise ratio [SNR], contrast-to-noise ratio [CNR], image quality, diagnostic confidence) from a standard brain magnetic resonance imaging examination encompassing common neurological disorders such as demyelinating disease, gliomas, cerebrovascular disease, and epilepsy, with comparable sequence protocols and acquisition times at 3 T and at 7 T. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ten healthy volunteers and 4 subgroups of 40 patients in total underwent comparable magnetic resonance protocols with standard diffusion-weighted imaging, 2D and 3D turbo spin echo, 2D and 3D gradient echo and susceptibility-weighted imaging of the brain (10 sequences) at 3 T and 7 T. The subgroups comprised patients with either lesional (n = 5) or nonlesional (n = 4) epilepsy, intracerebral tumors (n = 11), demyelinating disease (n = 11) (relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis [MS, n = 9], secondary progressive MS [n = 1], demyelinating disease not further specified [n = 1]), or chronic cerebrovascular disorders [n = 9]). For quantitative analysis, SNR and CNR were determined. For a semiquantitative assessment of the diagnostic confidence, a 10-point scale diagnostic confidence score (DCS) was applied. Two experienced radiologists with additional qualification in neuroradiology independently assessed, blinded to the field strength, 3 pathology-specific imaging criteria in each of the 4 disease groups and rated their diagnostic confidence. The overall image quality was semiquantitatively assessed using a 4-point scale taking into account whether diagnostic decision making was hampered by artifacts or not. RESULTS Without correction for spatial resolution, SNR was higher at 3 T except in the T2 SPACE 3D, DWI single shot, and DIR SPACE 3D sequences. The SNR corrected by the ratio of 3 T/7 T voxel sizes was higher at 7 T than at 3 T in 10 of 11 sequences (all except for T1 MP2RAGE 3D).In CNR, there was a wide variation between sequences and patient cohorts, but average CNR values were broadly similar at 3 T and 7 T.DCS values for all 4 pathologic entities were higher at 7 T than at 3 T. The DCS was significantly higher at 7 T for diagnosis and exclusion of cortical lesions in vascular disease. A tendency to higher DCS at 7 T for cortical lesions in MS was observed, and for the depiction of a central vein and iron deposits within MS lesions. Despite motion artifacts, DCS values were higher at 7 T for the diagnosis and exclusion of hippocampal sclerosis in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (improved detection of the hippocampal subunits). Interrater agreement was 69.7% at 3 T and 93.3% at 7 T. There was no significant difference in the overall image quality score between 3 T and 7 T taking into account whether diagnostic decision making was hampered by artifacts or not. CONCLUSIONS Ultra-high-field magnetic resonance imaging at 7 T compared with 3 T yielded an improved diagnostic confidence in the most frequently encountered neurologic disorders. Higher spatial resolution and contrast were identified as the main contributory factors.

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Purpose of the study. The purpose of this randomized controlled clinical trial was to determine if a brief intervention would improve foot self-care behaviors in adult patients with Type 2 diabetes who presented to the emergency department for non-emergent care in a predominantly Hispanic southwestern border community. ^ Methods. A pre-post-test, three-group design was used to compare the foot self-care behaviors of patients who received usual care to those who received lower extremity amputation (LEA) risk assessment and to those who received LEA risk assessment plus a brief foot self-care intervention. After being randomized into 3 groups (N = 167), baseline assessments of demographics, diabetes history, acculturation, and the Summary of Diabetes Self Care Activities (SDSCA) questionnaire and Modified Insulin Management Diabetes Self Efficacy Scale (MIMDSES) were completed in English or Spanish. At one-month, 144 (84%) participants were available for follow-up by the research assistant masked to group assignment. ^ Results. At baseline, significant differences in foot self-care behaviors and self monitoring blood glucose were noted based on ethnicity and gender. Men had significantly lower confidence in their ability to manage their diabetes overall. There was a significant difference between baseline and follow up self reported foot self-care behaviors within the intervention group (t (47) = −4.32, p < .01) and the control group (t (46) = −2.06, p < .05). There were no significant differences between groups for self-reported foot self-care behaviors. There was a significant difference in observed foot self-care behaviors between groups (F(2,135) = 2.99, p < .05). Self-efficacy scores were positively correlated with self-reported self-care behaviors. ^ Conclusions. This predominantly Hispanic population with type 2 diabetes reported performing diabetes self-care behaviors less than five days a week. There were within group changes, but no significant between group changes in reported self-care behaviors. However, at the one month follow up, there were significant differences between groups in observed foot self-care behaviors with the intervention group demonstrating the most accurate behaviors. Differences based on gender and ethnicity emphasize the need to individualize diabetes education. Priorities for culturally competent diabetes education, approaches to increasing self-efficacy and future research directions are suggested. ^

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Obesity rates around the nation have risen to epidemic proportions. Rates of childhood obesity are at very high levels with 24.4% of preschool-aged children in the U.S. currently considered as overweight or obese. The percentage of childhood obesity is much higher in the southern part of the United States as compared to the rest of the nation. Minority populations, especially African American and Hispanic, are affected more than other ethnic groups. Obesity prevention programs are needed targeting young children <6 years of age from minority populations. Currently, there are few obesity prevention programs that have been implemented and evaluated in children <6 years of age. Gardening programs have been successful in improving the health status of elementary school children by increasing fruit and vegetable intake and increasing preferences for healthier food choices. However, there is no evidence of the feasibility and acceptability of a garden-based obesity prevention program among preschoolers. This pretest study, a classroom-based gardening curriculum program with 16 lesson plans and coordinating activities for preschool age children (3-5 years old) enrolled in Head Start, provides the opportunity to address this need. The study included 103 preschoolers from two centers and 9 teachers or teachers' aides. Qualitative data on feasibility and acceptability was collected from process evaluation forms of individual lesson plans and focus groups with teachers. Teacher questionnaires assessed individual teacher characteristics and provided feedback regarding the curriculum. Quantitative measures of teachers' self-efficacy, attitudes, and knowledge pertaining to nutrition were analyzed from pre and post-test surveys. Results revealed this preschool garden-based nutrition curriculum was both feasible and acceptable. The program improved teacher's self-efficacy, knowledge, and attitudes about nutrition, with teacher's confidence in ability to teach a gardening curriculum increasing from a mean score of 2.14 to 3.00 from pre to post test (P value = 0.0046). These results indicate implementing garden-based nutrition lessons within preschools is achievable. Employing garden-based nutrition lessons in the classroom is the first step in teaching children about nutrition and gardening concepts. Constructing gardening beds for more hands-on learning is the next proposed step in the larger parent study of this program.^

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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the number one cause of death for people in Texas as well as Mexico. The progressive morbidity and mortality of CVD can be prevented initially and controlled through regular health screenings or visits to the physician where health markers such as hypertension can be detected and treated. Yet, many people go unaware of existing hypertension not only due to lack of access to health care but to their own personal beliefs, ideas, or perceived barriers that prevent them from seeking preventative health care. ^ The main purpose of this study was to evaluate whether individuals of Mexican origin, who have some form of medical coverage, posses more knowledge, more perceived severity, less perceived barriers, and greater self-efficacy in regards to hypertension than those individuals who have no medical coverage. This was done by addressing the following specific aims: 1.To evaluate the association between individuals who have health care coverage and those who do not have health care coverage in regards to their beliefs of hypertension; 2. To evaluate if there exists a variation among the respondents demographic data and their beliefs of hypertension. ^ The total number of respondents were 150; with 75 being from Cuidad Juarez, and 75 being from El Paso, Texas. The results indicated that the individuals with some form of medical coverage perceived themselves to be more susceptible to suffering a cardiac event or developing heart disease than those who had no form of medical coverage. The individuals with some form of health care coverage also found themselves having less perceived barriers than those who had no health care coverage. The level of education seemed to have some association with individuals perceiving themselves as being susceptible to experiencing a cardiac event if they do not control their hypertension. Regarding self-efficacy, or the self-reported confidence in performing certain behaviors to controlling hypertension, those individuals who perceived themselves as having no self-efficacy had a lower level of education, compared to those who did perceive themselves as possessing self-efficacy. The findings of this study indicate that beliefs regarding hypertension and medical coverage are variables that need to be investigated further for individuals in the El Paso and Cuidad Juarez region. ^

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Este artículo intenta mostrar cómo la introducción del corpus aristotélico en el mundo cristiano medieval durante los siglos XII y XIII contribuyó notablemente a reivindicar el valor de los datos sensibles para conducir al conocimiento inteligible. En efecto, el platonismo con el que los primeros pensadores cristianos estuvieron bien familiarizados, negaba que lo sensible pudiera dar lugar a un verdadero conocimiento. Sin embargo, esto significaba, al mismo tiempo, que las cosas sensibles no tenían suficiente consistencia ontológica. Y puesto que el cristianismo enseñaba la dignidad de todo lo creado, la filosofía aristotélica vino a proveerle de una concepción de lo sensible mucho más afín con sus propios principios. Esta confianza en la realidad concreta como objeto de conocimiento incluso inteligible acabó, no obstante, hacia fines de la Edad Media, y con ella, el realismo gnoseológico característico del pensamiento cristiano medieval.