Hybrid wind-diesel power plant valuation and optimization using real option theory and dynamic programming

El sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido tiene un gran potencial en la prestación de suministro de energía a comunidades remotas. En comparación con los sistemas tradicionales de diesel, las plantas de energía híbridas ofrecen grandes ventajas tales como el suministro de capacidad de energía extra para "microgrids", reducción de los contaminantes y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y la cobertura del riesgo de aumento inesperado del precio del combustible. El principal objetivo de la presente tesis es proporcionar nuevos conocimientos para la evaluación y optimización de los sistemas de energía híbrido eólico-diesel considerando las incertidumbres. Dado que la energía eólica es una variable estocástica, ésta no puede ser controlada ni predecirse con exactitud. La naturaleza incierta del viento como fuente de energía produce serios problemas tanto para la operación como para la evaluación del valor del sistema de energía eólica-diesel híbrido. Por un lado, la regulación de la potencia inyectada desde las turbinas de viento es una difícil tarea cuando opera el sistema híbrido. Por otro lado, el bene.cio económico de un sistema eólico-diesel híbrido se logra directamente a través de la energía entregada a la red de alimentación de la energía eólica. Consecuentemente, la incertidumbre de los recursos eólicos incrementa la dificultad de estimar los beneficios globales en la etapa de planificación. La principal preocupación del modelo tradicional determinista es no tener en cuenta la incertidumbre futura a la hora de tomar la decisión de operación. Con lo cual, no se prevé las acciones operativas flexibles en respuesta a los escenarios futuros. El análisis del rendimiento y simulación por ordenador en el Proyecto Eólico San Cristóbal demuestra que la incertidumbre sobre la energía eólica, las estrategias de control, almacenamiento de energía, y la curva de potencia de aerogeneradores tienen un impacto significativo sobre el rendimiento del sistema. En la presente tesis, se analiza la relación entre la teoría de valoración de opciones y el proceso de toma de decisiones. La opción real se desarrolla con un modelo y se presenta a través de ejemplos prácticos para evaluar el valor de los sistemas de energía eólica-diesel híbridos. Los resultados muestran que las opciones operacionales pueden aportar un valor adicional para el sistema de energía híbrida, cuando esta flexibilidad operativa se utiliza correctamente. Este marco se puede aplicar en la optimización de la operación a corto plazo teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza dependiente de la trayectoria de la política óptima de despacho, dadas las plausibles futuras realizaciones de la producción de energía eólica. En comparación con los métodos de valoración y optimización existentes, el resultado del caso de estudio numérico muestra que la política de operación resultante del modelo de optimización propuesto presenta una notable actuación en la reducción del con- sumo total de combustible del sistema eólico-diesel. Con el .n de tomar decisiones óptimas, los operadores de plantas de energía y los gestores de éstas no deben centrarse sólo en el resultado directo de cada acción operativa, tampoco deberían tomar decisiones deterministas. La forma correcta es gestionar dinámicamente el sistema de energía teniendo en cuenta el valor futuro condicionado en cada opción frente a la incertidumbre. ABSTRACT Hybrid wind-diesel power systems have a great potential in providing energy supply to remote communities. Compared with the traditional diesel systems, hybrid power plants are providing many advantages such as providing extra energy capacity to the micro-grid, reducing pollution and greenhouse-gas emissions, and hedging the risk of unexpected fuel price increases. This dissertation aims at providing novel insights for assessing and optimizing hybrid wind-diesel power systems considering the related uncertainties. Since wind power can neither be controlled nor accurately predicted, the energy harvested from a wind turbine may be considered a stochastic variable. This uncertain nature of wind energy source results in serious problems for both the operation and value assessment of the hybrid wind-diesel power system. On the one hand, regulating the uncertain power injected from wind turbines is a difficult task when operating the hybrid system. On the other hand, the economic profit of a hybrid wind-diesel system is achieved directly through the energy delivered to the power grid from the wind energy. Therefore, the uncertainty of wind resources has increased the difficulty in estimating the total benefits in the planning stage. The main concern of the traditional deterministic model is that it does not consider the future uncertainty when making the dispatch decision. Thus, it does not provide flexible operational actions in response to the uncertain future scenarios. Performance analysis and computer simulation on the San Cristobal Wind Project demonstrate that the wind power uncertainty, control strategies, energy storage, and the wind turbine power curve have a significant impact on the performance of the system. In this dissertation, the relationship between option pricing theory and decision making process is discussed. A real option model is developed and presented through practical examples for assessing the value of hybrid wind-diesel power systems. Results show that operational options can provide additional value to the hybrid power system when this operational flexibility is correctly utilized. This framework can be applied in optimizing short term dispatch decisions considering the path-dependent nature of the optimal dispatch policy, given the plausible future realizations of the wind power production. Comparing with the existing valuation and optimization methods, result from numerical example shows that the dispatch policy resulting from the proposed optimization model exhibits a remarkable performance in minimizing the total fuel consumption of the wind-diesel system. In order to make optimal decisions, power plant operators and managers should not just focus on the direct outcome of each operational action; neither should they make deterministic decisions. The correct way is to dynamically manage the power system by taking into consideration the conditional future value in each option in response to the uncertainty.

A friendly online C compiler to improve programming skills based on student self-assessment

This paper presents an online C compiler designed so that students can program their practical assignments in Programming courses. What is really innovative is the self-assessment of the exercises based on black-box tests and train students’ skill to test software. Moreover, this tool lets instructors, not only proposing and classifying practical exercises, but also evaluating automatically the efforts dedicated and the results obtained by the students. The system has been applied to the 1st-year students at the Industrial Engineering specialization at the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid. Results show that the students obtained better academic performance, reducing the failure rate in the practical exam considerably with respect to previous years, in addition that an anonymous survey proved that students are satisfied with the system because they get instant feedback about their programs.

Ianus: an adaptive FPGA computer

Dedicated machines designed for specific computational algorithms can outperform conventional computers by several orders of magnitude. In this note we describe Ianus, a new generation FPGA based machine and its basic features: hardware integration and wide reprogrammability. Our goal is to build a machine that can fully exploit the performance potential of new generation FPGA devices. We also plan a software platform which simplifies its programming, in order to extend its intended range of application to a wide class of interesting and computationally demanding problems. The decision to develop a dedicated processor is a complex one, involving careful assessment of its performance lead, during its expected lifetime, over traditional computers, taking into account their performance increase, as predicted by Moore’s law. We discuss this point in detail.

Integration of modular process simulators under the Generalized Disjunctive Programming framework for the structural flowsheet optimization

The optimization of chemical processes where the flowsheet topology is not kept fixed is a challenging discrete-continuous optimization problem. Usually, this task has been performed through equation based models. This approach presents several problems, as tedious and complicated component properties estimation or the handling of huge problems (with thousands of equations and variables). We propose a GDP approach as an alternative to the MINLP models coupled with a flowsheet program. The novelty of this approach relies on using a commercial modular process simulator where the superstructure is drawn directly on the graphical use interface of the simulator. This methodology takes advantage of modular process simulators (specially tailored numerical methods, reliability, and robustness) and the flexibility of the GDP formulation for the modeling and solution. The optimization tool proposed is successfully applied to the synthesis of a methanol plant where different alternatives are available for the streams, equipment and process conditions.

Mathematical programming model for heat exchanger design through optimization of partial objectives

Mathematical programming can be used for the optimal design of shell-and-tube heat exchangers (STHEs). This paper proposes a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model for the design of STHEs, following rigorously the standards of the Tubular Exchanger Manufacturers Association (TEMA). Bell–Delaware Method is used for the shell-side calculations. This approach produces a large and non-convex model that cannot be solved to global optimality with the current state of the art solvers. Notwithstanding, it is proposed to perform a sequential optimization approach of partial objective targets through the division of the problem into sets of related equations that are easier to solve. For each one of these problems a heuristic objective function is selected based on the physical behavior of the problem. The global optimal solution of the original problem cannot be ensured even in the case in which each of the sub-problems is solved to global optimality, but at least a very good solution is always guaranteed. Three cases extracted from the literature were studied. The results showed that in all cases the values obtained using the proposed MINLP model containing multiple objective functions improved the values presented in the literature.

Spanish Nursing Students' Practical Experience of Computer Applications in Nursing

This study aimed to determine the level of computer practical experience in a sample of Spanish nursing students. Each student was given a Spanish language questionnaire, modified from an original used previously with medical students at the Medical School of North Carolina University (USA) and also at the Education Unit of Hospital General Universitario del Mar (Spain). The 10-item self-report questionnaire probed for information about practical experience with computers. A total of 126 students made up the sample. The majority were female (80.2%; n=101). The results showed that just over half (57.1%, n=72) of the students had used a computer game (three or more times before), and that only one third (37.3%, n=47) had the experience of using a word processing package. Moreover, other applications and IT-based facilities (e.g. statistical packages, e-mail, databases, CD-ROM searches, programming languages and computer-assisted learning) had never been used by the majority of students. The student nurses' practical experience was less than that reported for medical students in previous studies.

A Code for zero-one integer programming, ILLIP-2 : a programming manual for ILLIP-2 /

"UILU-ENG 77 1711."

The concept of time in programming languages.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

pl/2d--a programming language for generating 2-dimensional patterns /

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Design of optimal one-bit adder networks by integer linear programming /

"July 15, 1971."

GIMLI and GIML : a machine and programming language for low-cost interactive graphical systems /

"UILU-ENG 77 1708."

A code for designing optimal networks by implicit enumeration using the all-interconnection inequality formulation : (a programming manual for ILLODIE-AIF) /

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

An implicit enumeration program for zero-one integer programming -- ILLIP-2 /

Thesis (M.S.)--Illinois.

A study of the effect of additional inequalities in integer programming for logical design.

Originally presented as the author's thesis (M.S.), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Synthesis of optimal networks with NOR and NAND gates by integer programming /

"January 18, 1971."