931 resultados para change-point detection


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Alpine snowbeds are characterised by a very short growing season. However, the length of the snow-free period is increasingly prolonged due to climate change, so that snowbeds become susceptible to invasions from neighbouring alpine meadow communities. We hypothesised that spatial distribution of species generated by plant interactions may indicate whether snowbed species will coexist with or will be out-competed by invading alpine species – spatial aggregation or segregation will point to coexistence or competitive exclusion, respectively. We tested this hypothesis in snowbeds of the Swiss Alps using the variance ratio statistics. We focused on the relationships between dominant snowbed species, subordinate snowbed species, and potentially invading alpine grassland species. Subordinate snowbed species were generally spatially aggregated with each other, but were segregated from alpine grassland species. Competition between alpine grassland and subordinate snowbed species may have caused this segregation. Segregation between these species groups increased with earlier snowmelt, suggesting an increasing importance of competition with climate change. Further, a dominant snowbed species (Alchemilla pentaphyllea) was spatially aggregated with subordinate snowbed species, while two other dominants (Gnaphalium supinum and Salix herbacea) showed aggregated patterns with alpine grassland species. These dominant species are known to show distinct microhabitat preferences suggesting the existence of hidden microhabitats with different susceptibility to invaders. These results allow us to suggest that alpine snowbed areas are likely to be reduced as a consequence of climate change and that invading species from nearby alpine grasslands could outcompete subordinate snowbed species. On the other hand, microhabitats dominated by Gnaphalium or Salix seem to be particularly prone to invasions by non-snowbed species.

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In this study, we compared direction detection thresholds of passive self-motion in the dark between artistic gymnasts and controls. Twenty-four professional female artistic gymnasts (ranging from 7 to 20 years) and age-matched controls were seated on a motion platform and asked to discriminate the direction of angular (yaw, pitch, roll) and linear (leftward–rightward) motion. Gymnasts showed lower thresholds for the linear leftward–rightward motion. Interestingly, there was no difference for the angular motions. These results show that the outstanding self-motion abilities in artistic gymnasts are not related to an overall higher sensitivity in self-motion perception. With respect to vestibular processing, our results suggest that gymnastic expertise is exclusively linked to superior interpretation of otolith signals when no change in canal signals is present. In addition, thresholds were overall lower for the older (14–20 years) than for the younger (7–13 years) participants, indicating the maturation of vestibular sensitivity from childhood to adolescence.

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Check-up is a frequent motivation for patients to see their general practitioner. The challenge lies in the choice of screening tools to accomplish an efficient, individual and age-adapted approach. In this article we review evidence-based screening methods, whose efficacy has been demonstrated by randomized clinical trials, as well as their application in clinical practice. While cardiovascular check-up has a high grade of evidence for nearly all patients, counselling to lifestyle change except for smoking cessation has been proved with lower evidence. In contrast, relatively new is the fact that ultrasound to screen for an abdominal aortic aneurysm is useful among men smokers or past smokers between 65 and 75 years old.

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Background Conventional cross-sectional imaging with computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has limited accuracy for lymph node (LN) staging in bladder and prostate cancer patients. Objective To prospectively assess the diagnostic accuracy of combined ultrasmall superparamagnetic particles of iron oxide (USPIO) MRI and diffusion-weighted (DW) MRI in staging of normal-sized pelvic LNs in bladder and/or prostate cancer patients. Design, setting, and participants Examinations with 3-Tesla MRI 24–36 h after administration of USPIO using conventional MRI sequences combined with DW-MRI (USPIO-DW-MRI) were performed in 75 patients with clinically localised bladder and/or prostate cancer staged previously as N0 by conventional cross-sectional imaging. Combined USPIO-DW-MRI findings were analysed by three independent readers and correlated with histopathologic LN findings after extended pelvic LN dissection (PLND) and resection of primary tumours. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Sensitivity and specificity for LN status of combined USPIO-DW-MRI versus histopathologic findings were evaluated per patient (primary end point) and per pelvic side (secondary end point). Time required for combined USPIO-DW-MRI reading was assessed. Results and limitations At histopathologic analysis, 2993 LNs (median: 39 LNs; range: 17–68 LNs per patient) with 54 LN metastases (1.8%) were found in 20 of 75 (27%) patients. Per-patient sensitivity and specificity for detection of LN metastases by the three readers ranged from 65% to 75% and 93% to 96%, respectively; sensitivity and specificity per pelvic side ranged from 58% to 67% and 94% to 97%, respectively. Median reading time for the combined USPIO-DW-MRI images was 9 min (range: 3–26 min). A potential limitation is the absence of a node-to-node correlation of combined USPIO-DW-MRI and histopathologic analysis. Conclusions Combined USPIO-DW-MRI improves detection of metastases in normal-sized pelvic LNs of bladder and/or prostate cancer patients in a short reading time.

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A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

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Cocoa-based small-scale agriculture is the most important source of income for most farming families in the region of Alto Beni in the sub-humid foothills of the Andes. Cocoa is grown in cultivation systems of varying ecological complexity. The plantations are highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Local cocoa producers mention heat waves, droughts, floods and plant diseases as the main impacts affecting plants and working conditions, and they associate these impacts with global climate change. From a sustainable regional development point of view, cocoa farms need to become more resilient in order to cope with the climate change related effects that are putting cocoa-based livelihoods at risk. This study assesses agroecosystem resilience under three different cocoa cultivation systems (successional agroforestry, simple agroforestry and common practice monocultures). In a first step, farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts were assessed and eight indicators of agroecological resilience were derived in a transdisciplinary process (focus groups and workshop) based on farmers’ and scientists’ knowledge. These indicators (soil organic matter, depth of Ah horizon, soil bulk density, tree species diversity, crop varieties diversity, ant species diversity, cocoa yields and infestation of cocoa trees with Moniliophthora perniciosa) were then surveyed on 15 cocoa farms and compared for the three different cultivation systems. Parts of the socio-economic aspects of resilience were covered by evaluating the role of cocoa cooperatives and organic certification in transitioning to more resilient cocoa farms (interviews with 15 cocoa farmers combined with five expert interviews). Agroecosystem resilience was higher under the two agroforestry systems than under common practice monoculture, especially under successional agroforestry. Both agroforestry systems achieved higher cocoa yields than common practice monoculture due to agroforestry farmers’ enhanced knowledge regarding cocoa cultivation. Knowledge sharing was promoted by local organizations facilitating organic certification. These organizations were thus found to enhance the social process of farmers’ integration into cooperatives and their reorientation toward organic principles and diversified agroforestry.

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Individuals who are diagnosed with a chronic mental illness and an alcohol use disorder comprise a high risk population that challenges the mental health care system. Effective treatment for the dually diagnosed, who are characterized by heterogeneity in their psychiatric diagnoses, their substance use patterns, and their current degree of dysfunction, presents a challenge. Several integrated treatment models have been developed that attempt to concurrently treat patients' psychiatric and substance abuse problems. At this point in the development of these "dual diagnosis" programs, treatment planning is hindered by a lack of knowledge about the relation of psychiatric severity to the process of recovery from alcohol abuse and dependence.^ The present study sought to advance the field's understanding of the relation between psychiatric severity and the process of behavior change through an examination of the relation between dimensions of psychiatric severity and Prochaska and DiClemente's Transtheoretical Model (TTM) constructs. The TTM, which focuses on identifying the processes of change that appear to underlie the modification of addictive behaviors, provides a way of conceptualizing and measuring specific elements relevant to the desired behavior change. Knowledge of the relation between these constructs and psychiatric severity will enable treatment planners to develop dual diagnosis programs which target clients' needs with a much higher level of specificity.^ One hundred-thirty two alcohol dependent patients in a dual diagnosis treatment program were assessed on psychiatric severity (defined as number of symptoms and level of distress resulting from symptoms) and the Transtheoretical Model constructs. The constructs include stages and processes of change for alcohol use, alcohol decisional balance, and alcohol abstinence self-efficacy. Results indicate that the TTM variable of "temptation to drink" is most strongly related to psychiatric severity: the more psychiatric distress a person is experiencing, the more he or she is tempted to drink. The "cons" of drinking were also related to psychiatric severity, indicating that participants who were experiencing more psychiatric distress also endorsed as important a higher number of the negative aspects of drinking.^ Additional aims of this investigation were to determine whether participants' scores on the Transtheoretical Model variables were associated with their: (a) severity of drinking, defined as frequency, quantity and consequences of use, (b) previous psychiatric and substance abuse treatment episodes, and (c) functional impairment. Associations were found among these variables and each of the key constructs of the Transtheoretical Model. Each association is explored in detail and implications for treatment programming are discussed. ^

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For the detection of climate change, not only the magnitude of a trend signal is of significance. An essential issue is the time period required by the trend to be detectable in the first place. An illustrative measure for this is time of emergence (ToE), that is, the point in time when a signal finally emerges from the background noise of natural variability. We investigate the ToE of trend signals in different biogeochemical and physical surface variables utilizing a multi-model ensemble comprising simulations of 17 Earth system models (ESMs). We find that signals in ocean biogeochemical variables emerge on much shorter timescales than the physical variable sea surface temperature (SST). The ToE patterns of pCO2 and pH are spatially very similar to DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon), yet the trends emerge much faster – after roughly 12 yr for the majority of the global ocean area, compared to between 10 and 30 yr for DIC. ToE of 45–90 yr are even larger for SST. In general, the background noise is of higher importance in determining ToE than the strength of the trend signal. In areas with high natural variability, even strong trends both in the physical climate and carbon cycle system are masked by variability over decadal timescales. In contrast to the trend, natural variability is affected by the seasonal cycle. This has important implications for observations, since it implies that intra-annual variability could question the representativeness of irregularly sampled seasonal measurements for the entire year and, thus, the interpretation of observed trends.

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BackgroundThe polysaccharide capsule is a major virulence factor of the important human pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae. However, S. pneumoniae strains lacking capsule do occur.ResultsHere, we report a nasopharyngeal isolate of Streptococcus pneumoniae composed of a mixture of two phenotypes; one encapsulated (serotype 18C) and the other nonencapsulated, determined by serotyping, electron microscopy and fluorescence isothiocyanate dextran exclusion assay.By whole genome sequencing, we demonstrated that the phenotypes differ by a single nucleotide base pair in capsular gene cpsE (C to G change at gene position 1135) predicted to result in amino acid change from arginine to glycine at position 379, located in the cytoplasmic, enzymatically active, region of this transmembrane protein. This SNP is responsible for loss of capsule production as the phenotype is transferred with the capsule operon. The nonencapsulated variant is superior in growth in vitro and is also 117-fold more adherent to and more invasive into Detroit 562 human epithelial cells than the encapsulated variant.Expression of six competence pathway genes and one competence-associated gene was 11 to 34-fold higher in the nonencapsulated variant than the encapsulated and transformation frequency was 3.7-fold greater.ConclusionsWe identified a new single point mutation in capsule gene cpsE of a clinical S. pneumoniae serotype 18C isolate sufficient to cause loss of capsule expression resulting in the co-existence of the encapsulated and nonencapsulated phenotype. The mutation caused phenotypic changes in growth, adherence to epithelial cells and transformability. Mutation in capsule gene cpsE may be a way for S. pneumoniae to lose its capsule and increase its colonization potential.

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This study describes and discusses initiatives taken by public (water) agencies in the state of Brandenburg in Germany, the state of California in the USA and the Ebro River Basin in Spain in response to the challenges which climate change poses for the agricultural water sector. The drivers and actors and the process of changing agricultural water governance are its particular focus. The assumptions discussed are: (i) the degree of planned and anticipatory top-down implementation processes decreases if actions are more decentralized and are introduced at the regional and local level; (ii) the degree of autonomous and responsive adaptation approaches seems to grow with actions at a lower administrative level. Looking at processes of institutional change, a variety of drivers and actors are at work such as changing perceptions of predicted climate impacts; international obligations which force politicians to take action; socio-economic concerns such as the cost of not taking action; the economic interests of the private sector. Drivers are manifold and often interact and, in many cases, reforms in the sector are driven by and associated with larger reform agendas. The results of the study may serve as a starting point in assisting water agencies in developing countries with the elaboration of coping strategies for tackling climate change-induced risks related to agricultural water management.

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The OPERA experiment, designed to perform the first observation of νμ→ντ oscillations in appearance mode through the detection of the τ leptons produced in ντ charged current interactions, has collected data from 2008 to 2012. In the present paper, the procedure developed to detect τ particle decays, occurring over distances of the order of 1 mm from the neutrino interaction point, is described in detail. The results of its application to the search for charmed hadrons are then presented as a validation of the methods for ντ appearance detection.

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OBJECTIVE There is mixed evidence regarding neural change following cognitive training. Brain activation increase, decrease, or a combination of both may occur. We investigated training-induced neural change using two different memory training approaches. METHODS Very preterm born children (aged 7-12 years) were randomly allocated to a memory strategy training, an intensive working memory practice or a waiting control group. Before and immediately after the trainings and the waiting period, brain activation during a visual working memory task was measured using fMRI and cognitive performance was assessed. RESULTS Following both memory trainings, there was a significant decrease of fronto-parietal brain activation and a significant increase of memory performance. In the control group, no neural or performance change occurred after the waiting period. CONCLUSION These pilot data point towards a training-related decrease of brain activation, independent of the training approach. Our data highlight the high training-induced plasticity of the child's brain during development.

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Background Protein-energy-malnutrition (PEM) is common in people with end stage kidney disease (ESKD) undergoing maintenance haemodialysis (MHD) and correlates strongly with mortality. To this day, there is no gold standard for detecting PEM in patients on MHD. Aim of Study The aim of this study was to evaluate if Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), handgrip strength measurement, mid-upper arm muscle area (MUAMA), triceps skin fold measurement (TSF), serum albumin, normalised protein catabolic rate (nPCR), Kt/V and eKt/V, dry body weight, body mass index (BMI), age and time since start on MHD are relevant for assessing PEM in patients on MHD. Methods The predictive value of the selected parameters on mortality and mortality or weight loss of more than 5% was assessed. Quantitative data analysis of the 12 parameters in the same patients on MHD in autumn 2009 (n = 64) and spring 2011 (n = 40) with paired statistical analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results Paired data analysis showed significant reduction of dry body weight, BMI and nPCR. Kt/Vtot did not change, eKt/v and hand grip strength measurements were significantly higher in spring 2011. No changes were detected in TSF, serum albumin, NRS-2002 and MUAMA. Serum albumin was shown to be the only predictor of death and of the combined endpoint “death or weight loss of more than 5%”. Conclusion We now screen patients biannually for serum albumin, nPCR, Kt/V, handgrip measurement of the shunt-free arm, dry body weight, age and time since initiation of MHD.

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This paper examines how the geospatial accuracy of samples and sample size influence conclusions from geospatial analyses. It does so using the example of a study investigating the global phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions and the socio-ecological characteristics of the areas they target. First, we analysed land deal datasets of varying geospatial accuracy and varying sizes and compared the results in terms of land cover, population density, and two indicators for agricultural potential: yield gap and availability of uncultivated land that is suitable for rainfed agriculture. We found that an increase in geospatial accuracy led to a substantial and greater change in conclusions about the land cover types targeted than an increase in sample size, suggesting that using a sample of higher geospatial accuracy does more to improve results than using a larger sample. The same finding emerged for population density, yield gap, and the availability of uncultivated land suitable for rainfed agriculture. Furthermore, the statistical median proved to be more consistent than the mean when comparing the descriptive statistics for datasets of different geospatial accuracy. Second, we analysed effects of geospatial accuracy on estimations regarding the potential for advancing agricultural development in target contexts. Our results show that the target contexts of the majority of land deals in our sample whose geolocation is known with a high level of accuracy contain smaller amounts of suitable, but uncultivated land than regional- and national-scale averages suggest. Consequently, the more target contexts vary within a country, the more detailed the spatial scale of analysis has to be in order to draw meaningful conclusions about the phenomena under investigation. We therefore advise against using national-scale statistics to approximate or characterize phenomena that have a local-scale impact, particularly if key indicators vary widely within a country.

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Sentinel lymph node (SLN) detection techniques have the potential to change the standard of surgical care for patients with prostate cancer. We performed a lymphatic mapping study and determined the value of fluorescence SLN detection with indocyanine green (ICG) for the detection of lymph node metastases in intermediate- and high-risk patients undergoing radical prostatectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection. A total of 42 patients received systematic or specific ICG injections into the prostate base, the midportion, the apex, the left lobe, or the right lobe. We found (1) that external and internal iliac regions encompass the majority of SLNs, (2) that common iliac regions contain up to 22% of all SLNs, (3) that a prostatic lobe can drain into the contralateral group of pelvic lymph nodes, and (4) that the fossa of Marcille also receives significant drainage. Among the 12 patients who received systematic ICG injections, 5 (42%) had a total of 29 lymph node metastases. Of these, 16 nodes were ICG positive, yielding 55% sensitivity. The complex drainage pattern of the prostate and the low sensitivity of ICG for the detection of lymph node metastases reported in our study highlight the difficulties related to the implementation of SNL techniques in prostate cancer. PATIENT SUMMARY There is controversy about how extensive lymph node dissection (LND) should be during prostatectomy. We investigated the lymphatic drainage of the prostate and whether sentinel node fluorescence techniques would be useful to detect node metastases. We found that the drainage pattern is complex and that the sentinel node technique is not able to replace extended pelvic LND.