857 resultados para change theory
Resumo:
The European Union (EU) is an extraordinary achievement. From a regional economic organization, it grew into a polity within fifty years. The original EU of six members expanded incrementally to 27 over forty years, and it now comprises a population of almost 500 million people. While the five expansions of the European Economic Community/European Community/European Union (EU) have received considerable scholarly attention, surprisingly little attention has been given to their impacts on "Europe's" only legislative body, currently known as the European Parliament (EP). More specifically, little is known about how waves of new members (from widely diverse parties and national backgrounds) affected—and were affected by—the EP's organizational structure and its internal processes. The purpose of this study therefore is to help fill this gap by describing and explaining how the various EEC/EC/EU expansions or "membership shocks" (1973, 1981, 1986, 1995, and 2004) affected the EP's organizational structure and its internal Rules of Procedure (RoP). The central research question of this dissertation is the following: What were the major structural and procedural effects of the five membership expansions of what eventually became the European Union on the European Parliament? This dissertation answers this question by using concepts and measures drawn from organizational theory. While other studies have applied concepts and hypotheses from organizational theory to legislatures, such an approach has never been used to analyze the EP, which is conceptualized here as a "membership organization." This study, through an analysis of the EP, demonstrates that organization theory can help us fully understand the effects of membership expansions on any membership organization. That is, understanding how this particular organization responded to change can inform not only how others in this class (legislatures) do so, but how this process unfolds in a variety of times and places. The principal findings of this study are as follows: (1) EP staff growth revealed an interesting pattern: Staff did not increase concurrently with EP membership. That is, it turned out that the rate of membership growth exceeded the rate of staff increase, suggesting professionalization of EP staff and their relative empowerment vis-à-vis MEPs; (2) The number of rules and the precision within them increased; (3) the largest number of EP rule changes focused on increasing EP efficiency; and (4) The authority was centralized in the hands of EP leadership, that is, the EP President, the Conference of Presidents and also two major political groups.
Resumo:
Convergence among treatment, prevention, and developmental intervention approaches has led to the recognition of the need for evaluation models and research designs that employ a full range of evaluation information to provide an empirical basis for enhancing the efficiency, efficacy, and effectiveness of prevention and positive development interventions. This study reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools. This study used a Relational Data Analysis integration of quantitative and qualitative data analysis strategies, including the use of both fixed and free response measures and a structural equation modeling approach, to construct and evaluate the hypothesized OMC model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 6.991, p = .43; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .459). Findings also provided preliminary evidence consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes. Furthermore, the general pattern of findings suggested the need to use methods capable of capturing both quantitative and qualitative change in order to increase the likelihood of identifying more complete theory informed empirically supported models of developmental intervention change processes.
Resumo:
This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQ-DAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). ^ Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. ^ Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups. ^
Resumo:
This study reports one of the first controlled studies to examine the impact of a school based positive youth development program (Lerner, Fisher, & Weinberg, 2000) on promoting qualitative change in life course experiences as a positive intervention outcome. The study built on a recently proposed relational developmental methodological metanarrative (Overton, 1998) and advances in use of qualitative research methods (Denzin & Lincoln, 2000). The study investigated the use the Life Course Interview (Clausen, 1998) and an integrated qualitative and quantitative data analytic strategy (IQDAS) to provide empirical documentation of the impact the Changing Lives Program on qualitative change in positive identity in a multicultural population of troubled youth in an alternative public high school. The psychosocial life course intervention approach used in this study draws its developmental framework from both psychosocial developmental theory (Erikson, 1968) and life course theory (Elder, 1998) and its intervention strategies from the transformative pedagogy of Freire's (1983/1970). Using the 22 participants in the Intervention Condition and the 10 participants in the Control Condition, RMANOVAs found significantly more positive qualitative change in personal identity for program participants relative to the non-intervention control condition. In addition, the 2X2X2X3 mixed design RMANOVA in which Time (pre, post) was the repeated factor and Condition (Intervention versus Control), Gender, and Ethnicity the between group factors, also found significant interactions for the Time by Gender and Time by Ethnicity. Moreover, the directionality of the basic pattern of change was positive for participants of both genders and all three ethnic groups. The pattern of the moderation effects also indicated a marked tendency for participants in the intervention group to characterize their sense of self as more secure and less negative at the end of the their first semester in the intervention, that was stable across both genders and all three ethnicities. The basic differential pattern of an increase in the intervention condition of a positive characterization of sense of self relative to both pre test and relative to the directionality of the movement of the non-intervention controls, was stable across both genders and all three ethnic groups.
Resumo:
Maternity nursing practice is changing across Canada with the movement toward becoming “baby friendly.” The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) as a standard of care in hospitals worldwide. Very little research has been conducted with nurses to explore the impact of the initiative on nursing practice. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to examine the process of implementing the BFHI for nurses. The study was carried out using Corbin and Strauss’s method of grounded theory. Theoretical sampling was employed, which resulted in recruiting and interviewing 13 registered nurses whose area of employment included neonatal intensive care, postpartum, and labour and delivery. The data analysis revealed a central category of resisting the BFHI. All of the nurses disagreed with some of the 10 steps to becoming a baby-friendly hospital as outlined by the WHO. Participants questioned the science and safety of aspects of the BFHI. Also, participants indicated that the implementation of this program did not substantially change their nursing practice. They empathized with new mothers and anticipated being collectively reprimanded by management should they not follow the initiative. Five conditions influenced their responses to the initiative, which were (a) an awareness of a pro-breastfeeding culture, (b) imposition of the BFHI, (c) knowledge of the health benefits of breastfeeding, (d) experiential knowledge of infant feeding, and (e) the belief in the autonomy of mothers to decide about infant feeding. The identified outcomes were moral distress and division between nurses. The study findings could guide decision making concerning the implementation of the BFHI.
Resumo:
This thesis investigates the crossover from and intersection between tangible and intangible heritage in the context of World Heritage. Since the start of the twenty-first century, intangible heritage has become increasingly important in international cultural heritage conservation theory and practice. In heritage literature, intangible heritage has been theorized in relation to tangible or built heritage, thereby extending the definition of cultural heritage to consider a holistic perspective. New heritage conservation instruments have been created for the protection of intangible heritage, such as most prominently the 2003 UNESCO Convention for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage. The changing conception of cultural heritage that goes beyond tangible heritage has also influenced existing instruments like the 1972 UNESCO Convention concerning the protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage. The thesis studies how intangible heritage has been recognized and interpreted in implementing the concept of cultural heritage as defined by the World Heritage Convention. It examines the historical development of the concept of World Cultural Heritage with the aim of tracing the construction of intangible heritage in this context. The thesis consists of six chapters. The introduction sets out the research problem and research question. In the literature review, international cultural heritage conservation is portrayed as the research context, the knowledge gap between World Heritage and intangible heritage is identified and an understanding of the research problem deepened, and methods from similar research in the subject area are presented. The methodology in the third chapter describes choices made concerning the research paradigm, research approach and strategy, the use of concepts and illustrative examples, as well as data collection and analysis methods. Knowledge is constructed using primarily a historical approach and related methods. Through the analysis of pertinent documents and heritage discourses, an understanding of the concept of intangible heritage is developed and the concept of World Cultural Heritage is investigated. In the fourth chapter, intangible heritage is studied by looking at specific cultural heritage discourses, that is, a scientific, a UNESCO, and an ICOMOS discourse. Intangible heritage is theorized in relation to the concepts of tangible heritage, heritage value, and cultural heritage. Knowledge gained in this chapter serves as a theoretical lens to trace the recognition of and tease out interpretations of intangible heritage in the context of implementing the concept of World Cultural Heritage. The results are presented in chapter five. A historical development is portrayed in five time periods and for the concepts of cultural heritage, Outstanding Universal Value, the criteria to assess World Heritage value, and authenticity. The conclusion summarizes the main outcomes, assesses the thesis’ contribution to scientific knowledge as well as its limitations, and outlines possible further research. The main results include the identification of the term intangible heritage as an indicator for a paradigm shift and a new approach to conceiving cultural heritage in international cultural heritage conservation. By focusing on processes and the living relationship between people and their environment or place, intangible heritage emphasizes the anthropological. In the context of this conception, intangible heritage takes on two meanings. First, value is attributed by people and hence, is inherently immaterial. Secondly, place is constituted of a tangible-intangible continuum in terms of attributes. A paradigm shift and increasing recognition of an anthropological approach to cultural heritage were identified for all discourses, that is, UNESCO, ICOMOS, the scientific field, and World Heritage. For World Heritage, intangible heritage was recognized indirectly in terms of historical associations during the 1970s and 1980s. The anthropological shift occurred in the early 1990s. The term intangible was introduced and the meaning of intangible heritage was extended to include cultural associations. The subsequent decade is characterized by a process of internalization and implementation of the new approach to cultural heritage. The 2003 Intangible Cultural Heritage Convention created momentum. By the early 2010s, while not explicitly recognizing the immaterial character of values, a holistic approach to cultural heritage was fully endorsed that considers the idea of intangible attributes as carriers of values. An understanding of the recognition of intangible heritage through the implementation of the World Heritage Convention and scientific research in general provide an important knowledge base for implementing the Convention in a more coherent, objective, and well-informed way.
Resumo:
This research is investigating the claim that Change Data Capture (CDC) technologies capture data changes in real-time. Based on theory, our hypothesis states that real-time CDC is not achievable with traditional approaches (log scanning, triggers and timestamps). Traditional approaches to CDC require a resource to be polled, which prevents true real-time CDC. We propose an approach to CDC that encapsulates the data source with a set of web services. These web services will propagate the changes to the targets and eliminate the need for polling. Additionally we propose a framework for CDC technologies that allow changes to flow from source to target. This paper discusses current CDC technologies and presents the theory about why they are unable to deliver changes in real-time. Following, we discuss our web service approach to CDC and accompanying framework, explaining how they can produce real-time CDC. The paper concludes with a discussion on the research required to investigate the real-time capabilities of CDC technologies. © 2010 IEEE.
Resumo:
This paper applies property rights theory to explain changes in foreign affiliates’ ownership. Post-entry ownership change is driven by both firm-level characteristics and by the differences in the institutional environments in host countries. We distinguish between financial market development and the level of corruption as two different institutional dimensions, such that changes along these dimensions impact upon ownership change in different ways. Furthermore, we argue that changes in ownership are affected by the foreign affiliate’s relatedness with its parent’s sector, as well as by the affiliate’s maturity. We use firm level data across 125 host countries to test our hypotheses.
Resumo:
This dissertation explores the complex process of organizational change, applying a behavioral lens to understand change in processes, products, and search behaviors. Chapter 1 examines new practice adoption, exploring factors that predict the extent to which routines are adopted “as designed” within the organization. Using medical record data obtained from the hospital’s Electronic Health Record (EHR) system I develop a novel measure of the “gap” between routine “as designed” and routine “as realized.” I link this to a survey administered to the hospital’s professional staff following the adoption of a new EHR system and find that beliefs about the expected impact of the change shape fidelity of the adopted practice to its design. This relationship is more pronounced in care units with experienced professionals and less pronounced when the care unit includes departmental leadership. This research offers new insights into the determinants of routine change in organizations, in particular suggesting the beliefs held by rank-and-file members of an organization are critical in new routine adoption. Chapter 2 explores changes to products, specifically examining culling behaviors in the mobile device industry. Using a panel of quarterly mobile device sales in Germany from 2004-2009, this chapter suggests that the organization’s response to performance feedback is conditional upon the degree to which decisions are centralized. While much of the research on product exit has pointed to economic drivers or prior experience, these central finding of this chapter—that performance below aspirations decreases the rate of phase-out—suggests that firms seek local solutions when doing poorly, which is consistent with behavioral explanations of organizational action. Chapter 3 uses a novel text analysis approach to examine how the allocation of attention within organizational subunits shapes adaptation in the form of search behaviors in Motorola from 1974-1997. It develops a theory that links organizational attention to search, and the results suggest a trade-off between both attentional specialization and coupling on search scope and depth. Specifically, specialized unit attention to a more narrow set of problems increases search scope but reduces search depth; increased attentional coupling also increases search scope at the cost of depth. This novel approach and these findings help clarify extant research on the behavioral outcomes of attention allocation, which have offered mixed results.
Resumo:
As the world population continues to grow past seven billion people and global challenges continue to persist including resource availability, biodiversity loss, climate change and human well-being, a new science is required that can address the integrated nature of these challenges and the multiple scales on which they are manifest. Sustainability science has emerged to fill this role. In the fifteen years since it was first called for in the pages of Science, it has rapidly matured, however its place in the history of science and the way it is practiced today must be continually evaluated. In Part I, two chapters address this theoretical and practical grounding. Part II transitions to the applied practice of sustainability science in addressing the urban heat island (UHI) challenge wherein the climate of urban areas are warmer than their surrounding rural environs. The UHI has become increasingly important within the study of earth sciences given the increased focus on climate change and as the balance of humans now live in urban areas.
In Chapter 2 a novel contribution to the historical context of sustainability is argued. Sustainability as a concept characterizing the relationship between humans and nature emerged in the mid to late 20th century as a response to findings used to also characterize the Anthropocene. Emerging from the human-nature relationships that came before it, evidence is provided that suggests Sustainability was enabled by technology and a reorientation of world-view and is unique in its global boundary, systematic approach and ambition for both well being and the continued availability of resources and Earth system function. Sustainability is further an ambition that has wide appeal, making it one of the first normative concepts of the Anthropocene.
Despite its widespread emergence and adoption, sustainability science continues to suffer from definitional ambiguity within the academe. In Chapter 3, a review of efforts to provide direction and structure to the science reveals a continuum of approaches anchored at either end by differing visions of how the science interfaces with practice (solutions). At one end, basic science of societally defined problems informs decisions about possible solutions and their application. At the other end, applied research directly affects the options available to decision makers. While clear from the literature, survey data further suggests that the dichotomy does not appear to be as apparent in the minds of practitioners.
In Chapter 4, the UHI is first addressed at the synoptic, mesoscale. Urban climate is the most immediate manifestation of the warming global climate for the majority of people on earth. Nearly half of those people live in small to medium sized cities, an understudied scale in urban climate research. Widespread characterization would be useful to decision makers in planning and design. Using a multi-method approach, the mesoscale UHI in the study region is characterized and the secular trend over the last sixty years evaluated. Under isolated ideal conditions the findings indicate a UHI of 5.3 ± 0.97 °C to be present in the study area, the magnitude of which is growing over time.
Although urban heat islands (UHI) are well studied, there remain no panaceas for local scale mitigation and adaptation methods, therefore continued attention to characterization of the phenomenon in urban centers of different scales around the globe is required. In Chapter 5, a local scale analysis of the canopy layer and surface UHI in a medium sized city in North Carolina, USA is conducted using multiple methods including stationary urban sensors, mobile transects and remote sensing. Focusing on the ideal conditions for UHI development during an anticyclonic summer heat event, the study observes a range of UHI intensity depending on the method of observation: 8.7 °C from the stationary urban sensors; 6.9 °C from mobile transects; and, 2.2 °C from remote sensing. Additional attention is paid to the diurnal dynamics of the UHI and its correlation with vegetation indices, dewpoint and albedo. Evapotranspiration is shown to drive dynamics in the study region.
Finally, recognizing that a bridge must be established between the physical science community studying the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the planning community and decision makers implementing urban form and development policies, Chapter 6 evaluates multiple urban form characterization methods. Methods evaluated include local climate zones (LCZ), national land cover database (NCLD) classes and urban cluster analysis (UCA) to determine their utility in describing the distribution of the UHI based on three standard observation types 1) fixed urban temperature sensors, 2) mobile transects and, 3) remote sensing. Bivariate, regression and ANOVA tests are used to conduct the analyses. Findings indicate that the NLCD classes are best correlated to the UHI intensity and distribution in the study area. Further, while the UCA method is not useful directly, the variables included in the method are predictive based on regression analysis so the potential for better model design exists. Land cover variables including albedo, impervious surface fraction and pervious surface fraction are found to dominate the distribution of the UHI in the study area regardless of observation method.
Chapter 7 provides a summary of findings, and offers a brief analysis of their implications for both the scientific discourse generally, and the study area specifically. In general, the work undertaken does not achieve the full ambition of sustainability science, additional work is required to translate findings to practice and more fully evaluate adoption. The implications for planning and development in the local region are addressed in the context of a major light-rail infrastructure project including several systems level considerations like human health and development. Finally, several avenues for future work are outlined. Within the theoretical development of sustainability science, these pathways include more robust evaluations of the theoretical and actual practice. Within the UHI context, these include development of an integrated urban form characterization model, application of study methodology in other geographic areas and at different scales, and use of novel experimental methods including distributed sensor networks and citizen science.
Resumo:
This thesis investigates the crossover from and intersection between tangible and intangible heritage in the context of World Heritage. Since the start of the twenty-first century, intangible heritage has become increasingly important in international cultural heritage conservation theory and practice. In heritage literature, intangible heritage has been theorized in relation to tangible or built heritage, thereby extending the definition of cultural heritage to consider a holistic perspective. New heritage conservation instruments have been created for the protection of intangible heritage, such as most prominently the 2003 UNESCO Convention for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage. The changing conception of cultural heritage that goes beyond tangible heritage has also influenced existing instruments like the 1972 UNESCO Convention concerning the protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage. The thesis studies how intangible heritage has been recognized and interpreted in implementing the concept of cultural heritage as defined by the World Heritage Convention. It examines the historical development of the concept of World Cultural Heritage with the aim of tracing the construction of intangible heritage in this context. The thesis consists of six chapters. The introduction sets out the research problem and research question. In the literature review, international cultural heritage conservation is portrayed as the research context, the knowledge gap between World Heritage and intangible heritage is identified and an understanding of the research problem deepened, and methods from similar research in the subject area are presented. The methodology in the third chapter describes choices made concerning the research paradigm, research approach and strategy, the use of concepts and illustrative examples, as well as data collection and analysis methods. Knowledge is constructed using primarily a historical approach and related methods. Through the analysis of pertinent documents and heritage discourses, an understanding of the concept of intangible heritage is developed and the concept of World Cultural Heritage is investigated. In the fourth chapter, intangible heritage is studied by looking at specific cultural heritage discourses, that is, a scientific, a UNESCO, and an ICOMOS discourse. Intangible heritage is theorized in relation to the concepts of tangible heritage, heritage value, and cultural heritage. Knowledge gained in this chapter serves as a theoretical lens to trace the recognition of and tease out interpretations of intangible heritage in the context of implementing the concept of World Cultural Heritage. The results are presented in chapter five. A historical development is portrayed in five time periods and for the concepts of cultural heritage, Outstanding Universal Value, the criteria to assess World Heritage value, and authenticity. The conclusion summarizes the main outcomes, assesses the thesis’ contribution to scientific knowledge as well as its limitations, and outlines possible further research. The main results include the identification of the term intangible heritage as an indicator for a paradigm shift and a new approach to conceiving cultural heritage in international cultural heritage conservation. By focusing on processes and the living relationship between people and their environment or place, intangible heritage emphasizes the anthropological. In the context of this conception, intangible heritage takes on two meanings. First, value is attributed by people and hence, is inherently immaterial. Secondly, place is constituted of a tangible-intangible continuum in terms of attributes. A paradigm shift and increasing recognition of an anthropological approach to cultural heritage were identified for all discourses, that is, UNESCO, ICOMOS, the scientific field, and World Heritage. For World Heritage, intangible heritage was recognized indirectly in terms of historical associations during the 1970s and 1980s. The anthropological shift occurred in the early 1990s. The term intangible was introduced and the meaning of intangible heritage was extended to include cultural associations. The subsequent decade is characterized by a process of internalization and implementation of the new approach to cultural heritage. The 2003 Intangible Cultural Heritage Convention created momentum. By the early 2010s, while not explicitly recognizing the immaterial character of values, a holistic approach to cultural heritage was fully endorsed that considers the idea of intangible attributes as carriers of values. An understanding of the recognition of intangible heritage through the implementation of the World Heritage Convention and scientific research in general provide an important knowledge base for implementing the Convention in a more coherent, objective, and well-informed way.
Resumo:
The dominant model of atmospheric circulation posits that hot air rises, creating horizontal winds. A second major driver has recently been proposed by Makarieva and Gorshkov in their biotic pump theory (BPT), which suggests that evapotranspiration from natural closed-canopy forests causes intense condensation, and hence winds from ocean to land. Critics of the BPT argue that air movement to fill the partial vacuum caused by condensation is always isotropic, and therefore causes no net air movement (Bunyard, 2015, hdl:11232/397). This paper explores the physics of water condensation under mild atmospheric conditions, within a purpose-designed square-section 4.8 m-tall closed-system structure. Two enclosed vertical columns are connected at top and bottom by two horizontal tunnels, around which 19.5 m**3 of atmospheric air can circulate freely, allowing rotary airflows in either direction. This air can be cooled and/or warmed by refrigeration pipes and a heating mat, and changes in airflow, temperature, humidity and barometric pressure measured in real time. The study investigates whether the "hot-air-rises" or an implosive condensation model can better explain the results of more than 100 experiments. The data show a highly significant correlation (R2 >0.96, p value <0.001) between observed airflows and partial pressure changes from condensation. While the kinetic energy of the refrigerated air falls short of that required in bringing about observed airflows by a factor of at least 30, less than a tenth of the potential kinetic energy from condensation is shown to be sufficient. The assumption that condensation of water vapour is always isotropic is therefore incorrect. Condensation can be anisotropic, and in the laboratory does cause sustained airflow.
Resumo:
This article presents the Art of Change Movement (Movimiento Arte del Cambio), which has developed out of a project of the Association of Social Workers Without Boundaries (Asociación Trabajadores/as Sociales Sin Fronteras), with the collaboration of the Faculty of Social Work at Universidad de Granada and of education professionals, incorporating theatrical creativity and musical expression as pedagogical and social intervention tools. The aim is for the initiative to become another instrument in the fight against oppression. Through a laboratory for collective creativity involving students and professionals from social work and other social science disciplines, the movement seeks social transformation through artistic expression, based on political commitment and sustainable development that empowers participants.
Resumo:
Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.
Resumo:
Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long-term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short-term and long-term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi-quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long-term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long-term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short-term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.