High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

Time-series Luminance Distribution Maps: implementation of annual daylight simulation methods for occupant visual comfort analysis

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Postural and respiratory activation of the trunk muscles changes with mode and speed of locomotion

Despite the importance of the deep intrinsic spinal muscles for trunk control, few studies have investigated their activity during human locomotion or how this may change with speed and mode of locomotion. Furthermore, it has not been determined whether the postural and respiratory functions, of which these muscles take part, can be coordinated when locomotor demands are increased. EMG recordings of abdominal and paraspinal muscles were made in seven healthy subjects using fine-wire and surface electrodes. Measurements were also made of respiration and gait parameters. Recordings were made for 10s as subjects walked on a treadmill at 1 and 2 ms(-1) and ran at 2, 3, 4 and 5 ms(-1). Unlike the superficial muscles, transversus abdominis was active tonically throughout the gait cycle with all tasks, except running at speeds of 3 ms(-1) and greater. All other muscles were recruited in a phasic manner. The relative duration of these bursts of activity was influenced by speed and/or mode of locomotion. Activity of all abdominal muscles, except rectus abdominis (RA), was modulated both for respiration and locomotor-related functions but this activity was affected by the speed and mode of locomotion. This study provides evidence that the deep abdominal muscles are controlled independently of the other trunk muscles. Furthermore, the pattern of recruitment of the trunk muscles and their respiratory and postural coordination is dependent on the speed and mode of locomotion. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Changes in three dimensional lumbo-pelvic kinematics and trunk muscle activity with speed and mode of locomotion

Background Control of the trunk is critical for locomotor efficiency. However, investigations of trunk muscle activity and three-dimensional lumbo-pelvic kinematics during walking and running remain scarce. Methods. Gait parameters and three-dimensional lumbo-pelvic kinematics were recorded in seven subjects. Electromyography recordings of abdominal and paraspinal muscles were made using fine-wire and surface electrodes as subjects walked on a treadmill at 1 and 2 ms(-1) and ran at 2, 3, 4 and 5 ms(-1). Findings. Kinematic data indicate that the amplitude but not timing of lumbo-pelvic motion changes with locomotor speed. Conversely, a change in locomotor mode is associated with temporal but not spatial adaptation in neuromotor strategy. That is, peak transverse plane lumbo-pelvic rotation occurs at foot strike during walking but prior to foot strike during running. Despite this temporal change, there is a strong correlation between the amplitude of transverse plane lumbo-pelvic rotation and stride length during walking and running. In addition, Jumbo-pelvic motion was asymmetrical during all locomotor tasks. Trunk muscle electromyography occurred biphasically in association with foot strike. Transversus abdominis was tonically active with biphasic modulation. Consistent with the kinematic data, electromyography activity of the abdominal muscles and the superficial fibres of multifidus increased with locomotor speed, and timing of peak activity of superficial multifidus and obliquus externus abdominis was modified in association with the temporal adaptation in lumbo-pelvic motion with changes in locomotor mode. Interpretation. These data provide evidence of the association between lumbo-pelvic motion and trunk muscle activity during locomotion at different speeds and modes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How the west was once: vegetation change in south-west Queensland from 1930 to 1995

Conflicting perceptions of past and present rangeland condition and limited historical data have led to debate regarding the management of vegetation in pastoral landscapes both internationally and in Australia. In light of this controversy we have sought to provide empirical evidence to determine the trajectory of vegetational change in a semi-arid rangeland for a significant portion of the 20th century using a suite of proxy measures. Ambathala Station, approximately 780 km west of Brisbane, in the semi-arid rangelands of south-western Queensland, Australia. We excavated stratified deposits of sheep manure which had accumulated beneath a shearing shed between the years 1930 and 1995. Multi-proxy data, including pollen and leaf cuticle analyses and analysis of historical aerial photography were coupled with a fine resolution radiocarbon chronology to generate a near annual history of vegetation on the property and local area. Aerial photography indicates that minor (< 5%) increases in the density of woody vegetation took place between 1951 and 1994 in two thirds of the study area not subjected to clearing. Areas that were selectively or entirely cleared prior to the 1950s (approximately 16% of the study area) had recovered to almost 60% of their original cover by the 1994 photo period. This slight thickening is only partially evident from pollen and leaf cuticle analyses of sheep faeces. Very little change in vegetation is revealed over the nearly 65 years based on the relative abundances of pollen taxonomic groups. Microhistological examination of sheep faeces provides evidence of dramatic changes in sheep diet. The majority of dietary changes are associated with climatic events of sustained above-average rainfall or persistent drought. Most notable in the dietary analysis is the absence of grass during the first two decades of the record. In contrast to prevailing perceptions and limited research into long-term vegetation change in the semi-arid areas of eastern Australia, the record of vegetation change at the Ambathala shearing shed indicates only a minor increase in woody vegetation cover and no decrease in grass cover on the property over the 65 years of pastoral activity covered by the study. However, there are marked changes in the abundance of grass cuticles in sheep faeces. The appearance and persistence of grass in sheep diets from the late 1940s can be attributed to the effects of periods of high rainfall and possibly some clearing and thinning of vegetation. Lower stock numbers may have allowed grass to persist through later drought years. The relative abundances of major groups of plant pollen have not changed significantly over the past 65 years.

Distance measurement using the change in junction voltage across a laser diode due to the self-mixing effect

Conventional detection scheme for self-mixing sensors uses an integrated photodiode within the laser package to monitor the self mixing signal. This arrangement can be simplified by directly obtaining the self-mixing signals across the laser diode itself and omitting the photodiode. This work reports on a Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser (VCSEL) based selfmixing sensor using the laser junction voltage to obtain the selfmixing signal. We show that the same information can be obtained with only minor changes to the extraction circuitry leading to potential cost saving with reductions in component costs and complexity and significant increase in bandwidth favoring high speed modulation. Experiments using both photo current and voltage detection were carried out and the results obtained show good agreement with the theory.

Organizations driving positive social change:a review and an integrative framework of change processes

Academic and practitioner interest in how market-based organizations can drive positive social change (PSC) is steadily growing. This paper helps to recast how organizations relate to society. It integrates research on projects stimulating PSC – the transformational processes to advance societal well-being – which is fragmented across different streams of research in management and related disciplines. Focusing on the mechanisms at play in how organizations and their projects affect change in targets outside of organizational boundaries, we 1) clarify the nature of PSC as a process, 2) develop an integrative framework that specifies two distinct PSC strategies, 3) take stock of and offer a categorization scheme for change mechanisms and enabling organizational practices, and 4) outline opportunities for future research. Our conceptual framework differentiates between surface- and deep-level PSC strategies understood as distinct combinations of change mechanisms and enabling organizational practices. These strategies differ in the nature and speed of transformation experienced by the targets of change projects and the resulting quality (pervasiveness and durability), timing, and reach of social impact. Our findings provide a solid base for integrating and advancing knowledge across the largely disparate streams of management research on Corporate Social Responsibility, Social Entrepreneurship, and Base of the Pyramid, and open up important new avenues for future research on organizing for PSC and on unpacking PSC processes.

The relationship between intergroup competition and longitudinal change in group effectiveness

Presentation of an abstract

Corporate environmental and climate change disclosures:empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Purpose-In this article, we examine the nature and the extent of corporate environmental and climate change disclosures in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/ approach-For this purpose, we have undertaken a content analysis of annual reports related to the year 2008 and websites of the 100 largest companies (according to market capitalization) listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. We have used 24 content analysis categories to capture the relevant disclosures related to climate change and other environmental issues. Findings-Key findings of our analysis suggest that the level of environmental and climate change disclosures is very low in Bangladesh. Although 91% of companies made disclosures in at least one category, most companies disclosed information only on the ''energy usage'' category, which is a mandatory requirement. Even fewer companies made disclosures in the specific areas of climate change. No disclosure was made in the significant categories such as GHG emissions. The second most popular category related to climate change was adaptation measures. Among the other environmental disclosures, a significant finding is that only 5% of (website 6%) companies disclosed that they had an effluent treatment plant. Closer examination of the nature of disclosures suggests that most of the disclosures are positive and descriptive in nature. Originality/value-As far as we are aware, this is the first study of its kind in Bangladesh which systematically examines corporate climate change disclosures as a particular focus of research. Copyright © 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Examining links between cognitive markers, movement initiation and change, and pedestrian safety in older adults

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the extent to which mobility indices (such as walking speed and postural sway), motor initiation, and cognitive function, specifically executive functions, including spatial planning, visual attention, and within participant variability, differentially predicted collisions in the near and far sides of the road with increasing age. Methods: Adults aged over 45 years participated in cognitive tests measuring executive function and visual attention (using Useful Field of View; UFoV®), mobility assessments (walking speed, sit-to-stand, self-reported mobility, and postural sway assessed using motion capture cameras), and gave road crossing choices in a two-way filmed real traffic pedestrian simulation. Results: A stepwise regression model of walking speed, start-up delay variability, and processing speed) explained 49.4% of the variance in near-side crossing errors. Walking speed, start-up delay measures (average & variability), and spatial planning explained 54.8% of the variance in far-side unsafe crossing errors. Start-up delay was predicted by walking speed only (explained 30.5%). Conclusion: Walking speed and start-up delay measures were consistent predictors of unsafe crossing behaviours. Cognitive measures, however, differentially predicted near-side errors (processing speed), and far-side errors (spatial planning). These findings offer potential contributions for identifying and rehabilitating at-risk older pedestrians.