Agricultural Production and Yield Estimation: Two distinctive aspects of Brazilian Agriculture and a perspective on world food problems

Brazil has been increasing its importance in agricultural markets. The reasons are well known to be the relative abundance of land, the increasing technology used in crops, and the development of the agribusiness sector which allow for a fast response to price stimuli. The elasticity of acreage response to increases in expected return is estimated for Soybeans in a dynamic (long term) error correction model. Regarding yield patterns, a large variation in the yearly rates of growth in yield is observed, climate being probably the main source of this variation which result in ‘good’ and ‘bad’ years. In South America, special attention should be given to the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, both said to have important effects on rainfalls patterns and consequently in yield. The influence on El Niño and La Niña in historical data is examined and some ways of estimating the impact of climate on yield of Soybean and Corn markets are proposed. Possible implications of climate change may apply.

Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach

We examine the long-run relationship between the parallel and the official exchange rate in Colombia over two regimes; a crawling peg period and a more flexible crawling band one. The short-run adjustment process of the parallel rate is examined both in a linear and a nonlinear context. We find that the change from the crawling peg to the crawling band regime did not affect the long-run relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, but altered the short-run dynamics. Non-linear adjustment seems appropriate for the first period, mainly due to strict foreign controls that cause distortions in the transition back to equilibrium once disequilibrium occurs

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Active networks: an evolution of the internet

Active Networks can be seen as an evolution of the classical model of packet-switched networks. The traditional and ”passive” network model is based on a static definition of the network node behaviour. Active Networks propose an “active” model where the intermediate nodes (switches and routers) can load and execute user code contained in the data units (packets). Active Networks are a programmable network model, where bandwidth and computation are both considered shared network resources. This approach opens up new interesting research fields. This paper gives a short introduction of Active Networks, discusses the advantages they introduce and presents the research advances in this field.

Remote gas detection and quantitative analysis from infrared emission spectra obtained by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

Techniques for obtaining quantitative values of the temperatures and concentrations of remote hot gaseous effluents from their measured passive emission spectra have been examined in laboratory experiments. The high sensitivity of the spectrometer in the vicinity of the 2397 cm-1 band head region of CO2 has allowed the gas temperature to be calculated from the relative intensity of the observed rotational lines. The spatial distribution of the CO2 in a methane flame has been reconstructed tomographically using a matrix inversion technique. The spectrometer has been calibrated against a black body source at different temperatures and a self absorption correction has been applied to the data avoiding the need to measure the transmission directly. Reconstruction artifacts have been reduced by applying a smoothing routine to the inversion matrix.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Optokinetic stimulation induces illusory movement of both out-of-the-body and on-the-body hand-held visual objects

The coding of body part location may depend upon both visual and proprioceptive information, and allows targets to be localized with respect to the body. The present study investigates the interaction between visual and proprioceptive localization systems under conditions of multisensory conflict induced by optokinetic stimulation (OKS). Healthy subjects were asked to estimate the apparent motion speed of a visual target (LED) that could be located either in the extrapersonal space (visual encoding only, V), or at the same distance, but stuck on the subject's right index finger-tip (visual and proprioceptive encoding, V-P). Additionally, the multisensory condition was performed with the index finger kept in position both passively (V-P passive) and actively (V-P active). Results showed that the visual stimulus was always perceived to move, irrespective of its out- or on-the-body location. Moreover, this apparent motion speed varied consistently with the speed of the moving OKS background in all conditions. Surprisingly, no differences were found between V-P active and V-P passive conditions in the speed of apparent motion. The persistence of the visual illusion during the active posture maintenance reveals a novel condition in which vision totally dominates over proprioceptive information, suggesting that the hand-held visual stimulus was perceived as a purely visual, external object despite its contact with the hand.

Reach & grasp therapy: Design and control of a 9-DOF robotic neuro-rehabilitation system

This paper presents the Gentle/G integrated system for reach & grasp therapy retraining following brain injury. The design, control and integration of an experimental grasp assistance unit is described for use in robot assisted stroke rehabilitation. The grasp assist unit is intended to work with the hardware and software of the Gentle/S robot although the hardware could be adapted to other rehabilitation applications. When used with the Gentle/S robot a total of 6 active and 3 passive degrees of freedom are available to provide active, active assist or passive grasp retraining in combination with reaching movements in a reach-grasp-transfer-release sequence.

Femtosecond evolution of spatially inhomogeneous carrier excitations: part 2: stochastic approach and GRID implementation

We present a stochastic approach for solving the quantum-kinetic equation introduced in Part I. A Monte Carlo method based on backward time evolution of the numerical trajectories is developed. The computational complexity and the stochastic error are investigated numerically. Variance reduction techniques are applied, which demonstrate a clear advantage with respect to the approaches based on symmetry transformation. Parallel implementation is realized on a GRID infrastructure.

An analysis on the performance of the forward and return interaction channels in DVB-RCS

The next generation consumer level interactive services require reliable and constant communication for both mobile and static users. The Digital Video Broadcasting ( DVB) group has exploited the rapidly increasing satellite technology for the provision of interactive services and launched a standard called Digital Video Broadcast through Return Channel Satellite (DYB-RCS). DVB-RCS relies on DVB-Satellite (DVB-S) for the provision of forward channel. The Digital Signal processing (DSP) implemented in the satellite channel adapter block of these standards use powerful channel coding and modulation techniques. The investigation is concentrated towards the Forward Error Correction (FEC) of the satellite channel adapter block, which will help in determining, how the technology copes with the varying channel conditions and user requirements(1).

Can we explain the dynamics of the UK FTSE 100 stock and stock index futures markets?

If stock and stock index futures markets are functioning properly price movements in these markets should best be described by a first order vector error correction model with the error correction term being the price differential between the two markets (the basis). Recent evidence suggests that there are more dynamics present than should be in effectively functioning markets. Using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models, this study analyses whether such dynamics can be related to different regimes within which the basis can fluctuate in a predictable manner without triggering arbitrage. These findings reveal that the basis shows strong evidence of autoregressive behaviour when its value is between the two thresholds but that the extra dynamics disappear once the basis moves above the upper threshold and their persistence is reduced, although not eradicated, once the basis moves below the lower threshold. This suggests that once nonlinearity associated with transactions costs is accounted for, stock and stock index futures markets function more effectively than is suggested by linear models of the pricing relationship.

Molecular modelling studies of binding of DACD derivatives into G-Quadruplex DNA: comparison of force field and quantum polarized ligand docking methods

The DNA G-qadruplexes are one of the targets being actively explored for anti-cancer therapy by inhibiting them through small molecules. This computational study was conducted to predict the binding strengths and orientations of a set of novel dimethyl-amino-ethyl-acridine (DACA) analogues that are designed and synthesized in our laboratory, but did not diffract in Synchrotron light.Thecrystal structure of DNA G-Quadruplex(TGGGGT)4(PDB: 1O0K) was used as target for their binding properties in our studies.We used both the force field (FF) and QM/MM derived atomic charge schemes simultaneously for comparing the predictions of drug binding modes and their energetics. This study evaluates the comparative performance of fixed point charge based Glide XP docking and the quantum polarized ligand docking schemes. These results will provide insights on the effects of including or ignoring the drug-receptor interfacial polarization events in molecular docking simulations, which in turn, will aid the rational selection of computational methods at different levels of theory in future drug design programs. Plenty of molecular modelling tools and methods currently exist for modelling drug-receptor or protein-protein, or DNA-protein interactionssat different levels of complexities.Yet, the capasity of such tools to describevarious physico-chemical propertiesmore accuratelyis the next step ahead in currentresearch.Especially, the usage of most accurate methods in quantum mechanics(QM) is severely restricted by theirtedious nature. Though the usage of massively parallel super computing environments resulted in a tremendous improvement in molecular mechanics (MM) calculations like molecular dynamics,they are still capable of dealing with only a couple of tens to hundreds of atoms for QM methods. One such efficient strategy that utilizes thepowers of both MM and QM are the QM/MM hybrid methods. Lately, attempts have been directed towards the goal of deploying several different QM methods for betterment of force field based simulations, but with practical restrictions in place. One of such methods utilizes the inclusion of charge polarization events at the drug-receptor interface, that is not explicitly present in the MM FF.

Capital market expectations and the London office market

The analysis of office market dynamics has generally concentrated on the impact of underlying fundamental demand and supply variables. This paper takes a slightly different approach to many previous examinations of rental dynamics. Within a Vector-Error-Correction framework the empirical analysis concentrates upon the impact of economic and financial variables on rents in the City of London and West End of London office markets. The impulse response and variance decomposition reveal that while lagged rental values and key demand drivers play a highly important role in the dynamics of rents, financial variables are also influential. Stock market performance not only influences the City of London market but also the West End, whilst the default spread plays an important role in recent years. It is argued that both series incorporate expectations about future economic performance and that this is the basis of their influence upon rental values.

Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods

In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bond, credit default swap (CDS), equity and equity option prices. We analyse short term price discovery by modelling daily changes in credit spreads in the four markets with a vector autoregressive model (VAR). We also look at price discovery in the long run with a vector error correction model (VECM). We find that in the short term the option market clearly leads the other markets in the sub-prime crisis (2007-2009). During the less severe sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012) and the pre-crisis period, options are still important but CDSs become more prominent. In the long run, deviations from the equilibrium relationship with the option market still lead to adjustments in the credit spreads observed or implied from other markets. However, options no longer dominate price discovery in any of the periods considered. Our findings have implications for traders, credit risk managers and financial regulators.