Változik-e a kőolaj szerepe a világgazdaságban és Magyarországon? = The (un)changing role of oil in global economy and Hungary

A kőolaj (és a földgáz), a XX. században felfutott fosszilis energiahordozók történetileg a szenet váltották fel. Ma egyértelműen meghatározzák a világ energiafelhasználását. Miután fosszilisak, rövid távon nem újratermelhetőek, ezért felhasználásuk történetét végigkísérte a feltárt és feltárható készletek mennyiségének állandó újrabecslése is, és folyamatosan jelen van a végességükre vonatkozó apokaliptikus kép, amit az elmúlt 40 év rendkívül hektikus, sokszor kiugróan magas árai is alátámasztanak. Cikkünkben reális képet szeretnénk adni az olaj mennyiségi és árváltozásairól, és ezek lehetséges közgazdasági, társadalmi hatásairól. Miután a rendelkezésre álló hely kevés, csak a legfontosabb összefüggéseket emeljük ki, bizonyos adatokat is inkább illusztrációszerűen közlünk. Célunk nem mélyelemzés, hanem egy átfogó helyzetkép. Vázoljuk a kőolajjal kapcsolatos fontosabb történeti mozzanatokat, a kőolaj felhasználásának irányait Európában és Magyarországon, valamint a készletekkel kapcsolatos összefoglaló gondolatokat. _______________ The volatile oil prices of the past 40 years have always foreshadowed an apocalyptic vision of the exhaustion of global reserves. The paper reviews the important historical moments of the usage of oil, with a special focus on Europe and Hungary. It also details issues related to oil reserves. The main conclusions of the paper are the following: (1) fears of exhausting oil reserves have been rebutted several times; (2) high oil prices can be barriers to the development of the transportation sector, even if innovation is happening in the background; (3) the distribution of oil reserves carries huge political risks; and (4) it is unclear what will take the place of oil as the main source of energy.

A rejtett gazdaság és az ellene való fellépés tényezői = The hidden economy and the factors involved in combating it

A szerzők közgazdasági modellek áttekintése segítségével elemzik a rejtett gazdaságban való részvétel tényezőit. Bemutatják, hogy a haszonmaximáló cselekvők a rejtett gazdaság egyes megjelenési formáival kapcsolatos döntésük meghozatala során (például adócsalás esetében) számot vetnek a rejtett gazdaságban való részvétel, illetve az attól való tartózkodás költségeivel és hasznaival. A tanulmány az adócsalás társadalmilag optimális szintjének meghatározásával foglalkozik a rejtett gazdasággal szembeni kormányzati lépések egyes típusaival, ezek hatásaival és a rejtett gazdasággal szembeni optimális kormányzati politika lehetőségeivel. _______ The authors analyse the factors behind participation in the hidden economy, through a review of the models of economic theory. They show that those seeking to maximize profits weigh various forms of the hidden economy (tax evasion, for instance), in the search for the optimum solution, calculate the costs and benefits of participating in the hidden economy or refraining from doing so. Taking the ‘socially optimum level’ of tax evasion, the study covers the various types of government measures that can be taken against the hidden economy, the effects of them, and the scope for an optimum government policy to combat the hidden economy.

The 3 per cent Barcelona Target: A Critical Appraisal of the Failure of the Lisbon Strategy’s Knowledgebased Economy and Society Project

Ten years after the unanimous approval of the Lisbon Strategy at a special meeting of the European Council on 23-24 March 2000 in Lisbon, it will be inevitable for the European Council, the European Commission and the majority of the EU member states to face with its fi asco and to account for the reasons of their fundamental policy, governance and economic failures in 2010. The recent turbulence of the global economy offers some excuses for the underperformance of the main objectives of the Lisbon Strategy in the essential social and economic domains, like job creation, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. Negative growth rates, macroeconomic and fi nancial instability, the contraction of the internal and external markets of the European economy, drop in demand for capital investment, goods and services, sinking corporate revenues, depreciation of corporate assets, increasing private and public indebtedness, falling rate of employment, weakening social cohesion, widening social inequality, and so forth not only deprive the majority of the EU member states of fulfi lling the main objectives of the Lisbon Strategy but also drive them into worse social and economic conditions in many policy domains than they were in 2000.

A comparative analysis of self-determined evaluations of work performance and support needs by adults with mental retardation in supported work and in sheltered workshop environments

The purpose of this study was to determine if there was a difference in the self-determined evaluations of work performance and support needs by adults with mental retardation in supported employment and in sheltered workshop environments. The instrument, Job Observation and Behavior Scale: Opportunity for Self-Determination (JOBS: OSD; Brady, Rosenberg, & Frain, 2006), was administered to 38 adults with mental retardation from sheltered workshops and 32 adults with mental retardation from supported employment environments. Cross-tabulations with Chi-square tests and independent samples t-tests were conducted to evaluate differences between the two groups, sheltered workshop and supported work. Two Multivariate Analyses of Variance (MANOVAs) were conducted to determine the effect of work environment on Quality of Performance (QP) and Types of Support (TS) test scores and their subscales. ^ This study found that there were significant differences between the groups on the QP Behavior and Job Duties subscales. The sheltered workshop group perceived themselves as performing significantly better on job duties than the supported work group. Conversely, the supported work group perceived themselves to have better behavior than the sheltered workshop group. However, there were no significant differences between groups in their perception of support needs for the three subscales. ^ The findings imply that work environment affects the self-determined evaluations of work performance by adults with mental retardation. Recommendations for further study include (a) detailing the characteristics of supported work and sheltered workshops that support and/or discourage self-determined behaviors, (b) exploring the behavior of adults with mental retardation in sheltered workshops and supported work environments, and (c) analysis of the support needs for and understanding of them by adults with mental retardation in sheltered workshops and in supported work environments. ^

Essays in economic growth, political economy and institutions

This dissertation analyzes the effects of political and economic institutions on economic development and growth.^ The first essay develops an overlapping-generations political economy model to analyze the incentives of various social groups to finance human capital accumulation through public education expenditures. The contribution of this study to the literature is that it helps explain the observed differences in the economic growth performance of natural resource-abundant countries. The results suggest that the preferred tax rates of the manufacturers on one hand and the political coalition of manufacturers and landowners, on the other hand, are equal to the socially optimal tax rate. However, we show that owners of natural resources prefer an excessively high tax rate, which suppresses aggregate output to a suboptimal level.^ The second essay examines the relationship between the political influence of different social classes and public education spending in panel data estimation. The novel contribution of this paper to the literature is that I proxy the political power and influence of the natural resource owners, manufacturers, and landowners with macroeconomic indicators. The motivation behind this modeling choice is to substantiate the definition of the political power of social classes with economic fundamentals. I use different governance indicators in the estimations to find out how different institutions mediate the overall impact of the political influence of various social classes on public education spending. The results suggest that political stability and absence of violence and rule of law are the important governance indicators.^ The third essay develops a counter argument to Acemoglu et al. (2010) where the thesis is that French institutions and economic reforms fostered economic progress in those German regions invaded by the Napoleonic armies. By providing historical data on urbanization rates used as proxies for economic growth, I demonstrate that similar different rates of economic growth were observed in the regions of France in the post-Napoleonic period as well. The existence of different economic growth rates makes it hard to argue that the differences in economic performance in the German regions that were invaded by the French and those that were spared a similar fate follow from regional differences in economic institutions.^

Perceived Work Status and Turnover Intentions of Casual-Dining Restaurant Employees

The current research examined the effects of perceived work status of hourly employees on the established relationships between turnover intentions and the constructs of autonomy, affective organizational commitment, perceived management concern for employees, and perceived management concern for customers in the casual-dining restaurant industry. Surveys were collected from 296 employees of a multi-unit casual-dining restaurant franchise, part of a large, national, casual-dining restaurant chain. Employeeswith perceived part-time work status revealed a generally negative trend in factors shown to contribute to turnover. Employees who perceived their work status as parttime also showed significantly lower levels of affective organizational commitment than those who perceived their work status as full-time. Additionally, the mean scores of the desirable attributes trended lower for those employees who perceived themselves as part-time. Even more, helping behaviors, so crucial in a casual-dining environment, were lower when employees perceived their work status to be part-time. The current study discusses managerial implications of the research findings and gives suggestions for future research.

Women at work: Nurse and intern talk to patient, coronary-intensive care unit, Douglas County Hospital, Alexandria, Minnesota

Inscription: Verso: Women at work: miscellaneous occupations.

Green Economy and Employment: employment potential of the ecological transition in Spain

The Green Economy offers real possibilities for productive innovation, economic growth and employment creation in Spain. These three factors are critical to facilitate the necessary change in the productive model to overcome the crisis. However, the measures taken by the current Conservative government have moved in the opposite direction: significant cutting in incentives for renewable, increasing tax burden on renewable energy production to self-consumption and privatizing public spaces of social and environmental interest. This hinders the achievement of the environmental objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy. A strategy that is born already in itself highly limited, unambitious and subordinated to the interests of energy oligopolies and the imperatives of the Stability and Growth Pact (Maastricht) and the Austerity policies imposed from EU institutions to overcome the 2008 financial crisis. So the Ecological Transition goes further, claiming a substantially change in Economic Policy away form the increasing commodification proposed by the Green Economy. Despite these limitations, young and unemployed people have much to gain from a comprehensive development of environmental industries. Therefore, innovative-sustainable plans, investment and training in green sectors are necessary to make easier the transition from a services low-valued economy to an innovative and sustainable model to make our country an environmental reference in Europe.

Work Extraction and Energy Storage in the Dicke Model

We study work extraction from the Dicke model achieved using simple unitary cyclic transformations keeping into account both a non optimal unitary protocol, and the energetic cost of creating the initial state. By analyzing the role of entanglement, we find that highly entangled states can be inefficient for energy storage when considering the energetic cost of creating the state. Such surprising result holds notwithstanding the fact that the criticality of the model at hand can sensibly improve the extraction of work. While showing the advantages of using a many-body system for work extraction, our results demonstrate that entanglement is not necessarily advantageous for energy storage purposes, when non optimal processes are considered. Our work shows the importance of better understanding the complex interconnections between non-equilibrium thermodynamics of quantum systems and correlations among their subparts.

Land, Power and Technology : Essays on Political Economy and Historical Development

Land Ownership and Development: Evidence from Postwar Japan This paper analyzes the effect of land ownership on technology adoption and structural transformation. A large-scale land reform in postwar Japan enforced a large number of tenant farmers who were cultivating land to become owners of this land. I find that the municipalities which had many owner farmers after the land reform tended to experience a quick entry of new agricultural machines which became available after the reform. The adoption of the machines reduced the dependence on family labor, and led to a reallocation of labor from agriculture to industries and service sectors in urban centers when these sectors were growing. I also analyze the aggregate impact of labor reallocation on economic growth by using a simple growth model and micro data. I find that it increased GDP by about 12 percent of the GDP in 1974 during 1955-74. I also find a large and positive effect on agricultural productivity. Loyalty and Treason: Theory and Evidence from Japan's Land Reform A historically large-scale land reform in Japan after World War II enforced by the occupation forces redistributed a large area of farmlands to tenant farmers. The reform demolished hierarchical structures by weakening landlords' power in villages and towns. This paper investigates how the change in the social and economic structure of small communities affects electoral outcomes in the presence of clientelism. I find that there was a considerable decrease in the vote share of conservative parties in highly affected areas after the reform. I find the supporting evidence that the effect was driven by the fact that the tenant farmers who had obtained land exited from the long-term tenancy contract and became independent landowners. The effect was relatively persistent. Finally, I also find the surprising result that there was a decrease, rather than an increase, in turnout in these areas after the reform.  Geography and State Fragmentation We examine how geography affects the location of borders between sovereign states in Europe and surrounding areas from 1500 until today at the grid-cell level. This is motivated by an observation that the richest places in this region also have the highest historical border presence, suggesting a hitherto unexplored link between geography and modern development, working through state fragmentation. The raw correlations show that borders tend to be located on mountains, by rivers, closer to coasts, and in areas suitable for rainfed, but not irrigated, agriculture. Many of these patterns also hold with rigorous spatial controls. For example, cells with more rivers and more rugged terrain than their neighboring cells have higher border densities. However, the fragmenting effects of suitability for rainfed agriculture are reversed with such neighbor controls. Moreover, we find that borders are less likely to survive over time when they separate large states from small, but this size-difference effect is mitigated by, e.g., rugged terrain.

Knowledge Workers and Associative Activity: An Examination of Knowledge Work Systems and Settings

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Running economy and blood lactate accumulation in elite football players with high and low maximal aerobic power

The purpose was to determine running economy and lactate threshold among a selection of male elite football players with high and low aerobic power. Forty male elite football players from the highest Swedish division (“Allsvenskan”) participated in the study. In a test of running economy (RE) and blood lactate accumulation the participants ran four minutes each at 10, 12, 14, and 16 km•h-1 at horizontal level with one minute rest in between each four minutes interval. After the last sub-maximal speed level the participants got two minutes of rest before test of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). Players that had a maximal oxygen uptake lower than the average for the total population of 57.0 mL O2•kg-1•minute-1 were assigned to the low aerobic power group (LAP) (n=17). The players that had a VO2max equal to or higher than 57.0 mL O2•kg-1•minute-1 were selected for the high aerobic power group (HAP) (n=23). The VO2max was significantly different between the HAP and LAP group. The average RE, measured as oxygen uptake at 12, 14 and 16km•h-1 was significantly lower but the blood lactate concentration was significantly higher at 14 and 16 km•h-1 for theLAP group compared with the HAP group.