Weak Zone Related Seismic Cycles in Progressive Failure Leading to Collapse in Brittle Crust

Until quite recently our understanding of the basic mechanical process responsible for earthquakes and faulting was not well known. It can be argued that this was partly a consequence of the complex nature of fracture in crust and in part because evidence of brittle phenomena in the natural laboratory of the earth is often obliterated or obscured by other geological processes. While it is well understood that the spatial and temporal complexity of earthquakes and the fault structures emerge from geometrical and material built-in heterogeneities, one important open question is how the shearing becomes localized into a band of intense fractures. Here the authors address these questions through a numerical approach of a tectonic plate by considering rockmass heterogeneity both in microscopic scale and in mesoscopic scale. Numerical simulations of the progressive failure leading to collapse under long-range slow driving forces in the far-field show earthquake-like rupture behavior. $En Echelon$ crack-arrays are reproduced in the numerical simulation. It is demonstrated that the underlying fracturing induced acoustic emissions (or seismic events) display self-organized criticality------from disorder to order. The seismic cycles and the geometric structures of the fracture faces, which are found greatly depending on the material heterogeneity (especially on the macroscopic scale), agree with that observed experimentally in real brittle materials. It is concluded that in order to predict a main shock, one must have extremely detailed knowledge on very minor features of the earth's crust far from the place where the earthquake originated. If correct, the model proposed here seemingly provides an explanation as to why earthquakes to date are not predicted so successfully. The reason is not that the authors do not understand earthquake mechanisms very well but that they still know little about our earth's crust.

Models and algorithms for detection and tracking of coordinated groups

In this paper, we describe models and algorithms for detection and tracking of group and individual targets. We develop two novel group dynamical models, within a continuous time setting, that aim to mimic behavioural properties of groups. We also describe two possible ways of modeling interactions between closely using Markov Random Field (MRF) and repulsive forces. These can be combined together with a group structure transition model to create realistic evolving group models. We use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Particles Algorithm to perform sequential inference. Computer simulations demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to detect and track targets within groups, as well as infer the correct group structure over time. ©2008 IEEE.

Models and algorithms for tracking of maneuvering objects using variable rate particle filters

Standard algorithms in tracking and other state-space models assume identical and synchronous sampling rates for the state and measurement processes. However, real trajectories of objects are typically characterized by prolonged smooth sections, with sharp, but infrequent, changes. Thus, a more parsimonious representation of a target trajectory may be obtained by direct modeling of maneuver times in the state process, independently from the observation times. This is achieved by assuming the state arrival times to follow a random process, typically specified as Markovian, so that state points may be allocated along the trajectory according to the degree of variation observed. The resulting variable dimension state inference problem is solved by developing an efficient variable rate particle filtering algorithm to recursively update the posterior distribution of the state sequence as new data becomes available. The methodology is quite general and can be applied across many models where dynamic model uncertainty occurs on-line. Specific models are proposed for the dynamics of a moving object under internal forcing, expressed in terms of the intrinsic dynamics of the object. The performance of the algorithms with these dynamical models is demonstrated on several challenging maneuvering target tracking problems in clutter. © 2006 IEEE.

An experimental study of the influence of weak convection on perikinetic coagulation

A remarkably increased coagulation rate for 2-mu m PS spheres was previously reported for a perikinetic coagulation experiment performed under microgravity conditions (1998, R. Folkersma, A. J. G. van Diemen, and H. N. Stein, J. Colloid Interface Sci. 206, 482); from this experiment, it was assumed that the leading factor slowing the coagulation process under normal gravitation was free convection due to gravity (1998, R. Folkersma, and H. N. Stein, J. Colloid Interface Sci. 206, 494). To test the influence of free convection as a single-effect factor on the coagulation process, a ground-based experiment was constructed. The coagulation rate of 2-mu m PS spheres dispersed in water was determined by measuring the turbidity of the dispersion solution while convection-driven flows in the solution were checked with a visual magnification system. We found that it was possible to cease free convection-driven particle flows on the ground, as long as the experiments were carefully operated. The strength of convection was controlled by changing the temperature gradient applied to the sample cell. By monitoring both the coagulation rate and convection-driven flows simultaneously, our experiments showed that weak free convection (maximum speed <150 mu m/s) actually has negligible effects on the coagulation rate.

Effect of weak Brownian motion on gravitational coagulation

The effect of a small amount of Brownian diffusion on gravitational coagulation is numerically calculated by incorporating gravitational and interparticle forces (both attractive and repulsive), as well as hydrodynamic interactions. It is found that weak Brownian diffusion, the effect of which is nonlinearly coupled with gravity, can act to decrease the coagulation rate.