Prescription du monitoring pratique médicate: de l'empirisme eclairé aux stratégies rationnelles [Prescribing monitoring in clinical practice: from enlightened empiricism to rational strategies].

Monitoring of a medical condition is the periodic measurement of one or several physiological or biological variables to detect a signal regarding its clinical progression or its response to treatment. We distinguish different medical situations between diagnostic, clinical and therapeutic process to apply monitoring. Many clinical, variables can be used for monitoring, once their intrinsic properties (normal range, critical difference, kinetics, reactivity) and external validity (pathophysiological importance, predictive power for clinical outcomes) are established. A formal conceptualization of monitoring is being developed and should support the rational development of monitoring strategies and their validation through appropriate clinical trials.

GDP and life expectancy in Italy and Spain over the long-run (1861-2008): insights from a timeseries approach

The article presents and discusses long-run series of per capita GDP and life expectancy for Italy and Spain (1861-2008). After refining the available estimates in order to make them comparable and with the avail of the most up-to-date researches, the main changes in the international economy and in technological and sociobiological regimes are used as analytical frameworks to re-assess the performances of the two countries; then structural breaks are searched for and Granger causality between the two variables is investigated. The long-run convergence notwithstanding, significant cyclical differences between the two countries can be detected: Spain began to modernize later in GDP, with higher volatility in life expectancy until recent decades; by contrast, Italy showed a more stable pattern of life expectancy, following early breaks in per capita GDP, but also a negative GDP break in the last decades. Our series confirm that, whereas at the early stages of development differences in GDP tend to mirror those in life expectancy, this is no longer true at later stages of development, when, if any, there seems to be a negative correlation between GDP and life expectancy: this finding is in line with the thesis of a non-monotonic relation between life expectancy and GDP and is supported by tests of Granger causality.

Success of referral for alcohol dependent patients from a general hospital : predictive value of patient and process characteristics

RESUME: Introduction L'objectif de cette étude prospective de cohorte était d'estimer l'efficacité d'un processus de prise en charge standardisé de patients dépendants de l'alcool dans le contexte d'un hôpital universitaire de soins généraux. Ce modèle de prise en charge comprenait une évaluation multidisciplinaire puis des propositions de traitements individualisées et spécifiques (« projet thérapeutique »). Patients et méthode 165 patients alcoolo-dépendants furent recrutés dans différents services de l'hôpital universitaire, y compris la policlinique de médecine. Ils furent dans un premier temps évalués par une équipe multidisciplinaire (médecin interniste, psychiatre, assistant social), puis un projet thérapeutique spécialisé et individualisé leur fut proposé lors d'une rencontre réunissant le patient et l'équipe. Tous les patients éligibles acceptant de participer à l'étude (n=68) furent interrogés au moment de l'inclusion puis 2 et 6 mois plus tard par une psychologue. Des informations standardisées furent recueillies sur les caractéristiques des patients, le processus de prise en charge et l'évolution à 6 mois. Les critères de succès utilisés à 6 mois furent: l'adhérence au traitement proposé et l'abstinence d'alcool. Résultats Lors de l'évaluation à 6 mois, 43% des patients étaient toujours en traitement et 28% étaient abstinents. Les variables prédictrices de succès parmi les caractéristiques des patients étaient un âge de plus de 45 ans, ne pas vivre seul, avoir un travail et être motivé pour un traitement (RAATE-A <18). Pour les variables dépendantes du processus de prise en charge, un sevrage complet de l'alcool lors de la rencontre multidisciplinaire ainsi que la présence de tous les membres de l'équipe à cette réunion étaient des facteurs associés au succès. Conclusion L'efficacité de ce modèle d'intervention pour patients dépendants de l'alcool en hôpital de soins généraux s'est montrée satisfaisante, en particulier pour le critère de succès adhérence au traitement. Des variables associées au succès ou à l'échec à 6 mois ont pu être mises en évidence, permettant d'identifier des populations de patients évoluant différemment. Des stratégies de prise en charge tenant compte de ces éléments pourraient donc être développées, permettant de proposer des traitements plus adaptés ainsi qu'une meilleure rétention des patients alcooliques dans les programmes thérapeutiques. ABSTRACT. To assess the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary evaluation and referral process in a prospective cohort of general hospital patients with alcohol dependence, alcohol-dependent patients were identified in the wards of the general hospital and its primary care center. They were evaluated and then referred to treatment by a multidisciplinary team; those patients who accepted to participate in this cohort study were consecutively included and followed for 6 months. Not included patients were lost for follow-up, whereas all included patients were assessed at time of inclusion, 2 and 6 months later by a research psychologist in order to collect standardized baseline patients' characteristics, process salient features and patients outcomes (defined as treatment adherence and abstinence). Multidisciplinary evaluation and therapeutic referral was feasible and effective, with a success rate of 43% for treatment adherence and 28% for abstinence at 6 months. Among patients' characteristics, predictors of success were an age over 45, not living alone, being employed and being motivated to treatment (RAATE-A score < 18), whereas successful process characteristics included detoxification of the patient at time of referral and a full multidisciplinary referral meeting. This multidisciplinary model of evaluation and referral of alcohol dependent patients of a general hospital had a satisfactory level of effectiveness. Predictors of success and failure allow the identification of subsets of patients for whom new strategies of motivation and treatment referral should be designed.

Proposal of three thermodynamic variables to discriminate between storms associated with hail and storms with intense rainfall in Catalonia (Proposta de tres variables termodinàmiques per discriminar entre tempestes amb pedregades i tempestes amb pluges intenses)

Between late spring and early fall, the development of storms is common in Catalonia. Despite the fact that they usually produce heavy showers of short duration, they can also involve severe weather with ice pellets or hail. While the latter usually affect inland regions, and there are numerous publications on these cases; the analysis of events affecting the coast and causing damage to public and private properties is not so well developed. The aim of this study is to provide additional thermodynamic indicators that help differentiate storms with hail from storms without hail, considering cases that have affected various regions of Catalonia, mainly coastal areas. The aim is to give more information to improve prognosis and the ability to detail information in these situations. The procedure developed involved the study of several episodes of heavy rainfall and hail that hit Catalonia during the 2003-2009 period, mainly in the province of Girona, and validated the proposal during the campaign of late summer and fall of 2009, as well as 2012. For each case, several variables related to temperature, humidity and wind were analyzed at different levels of the atmosphere, while the information provided by the radio sounding in Barcelona was also taken into account. From this study, it can be concluded that the temperature difference between 500 hPa and 850 hPa, the humidity in the lower layers of the atmosphere and the LI index are good indicators for the detection of storms with associated hail.

Introduction of snow and geomorphic disturbance variables into predictive models of alpine plant distribution in the Western Swiss Alps

Indirect topographic variables have been used successfully as surrogates for disturbance processes in plant species distribution models (SDM) in mountain environments. However, no SDM studies have directly tested the performance of disturbance variables. In this study, we developed two disturbance variables: a geomorphic index (GEO) and an index of snow redistribution by wind (SNOW). These were developed in order to assess how they improved both the fit and predictive power of presenceabsence SDM based on commonly used topoclimatic (TC) variables for 91 plants in the Western Swiss Alps. The individual contribution of the disturbance variables was compared to TC variables. Maps of models were prepared to spatially test the effect of disturbance variables. On average, disturbance variables significantly improved the fit but not the predictive power of the TC models and their individual contribution was weak (5.6% for GEO and 3.3% for SNOW). However their maximum individual contribution was important (24.7% and 20.7%). Finally, maps including disturbance variables (i) were significantly divergent from TC models in terms of predicted suitable surfaces and connectivity between potential habitats, and (ii) were interpreted as more ecologically relevant. Disturbance variables did not improve the transferability of models at the local scale in a complex mountain system, and the performance and contribution of these variables were highly species-specific. However, improved spatial projections and change in connectivity are important issues when preparing projections under climate change because the future range size of the species will determine the sensitivity to changing conditions.

Personality and personality disorders in urban and rural Africa: results from a field trial in Burkina Faso

When conducting research in different cultural settings, assessing measurement equivalence is of prime importance to determine if constructs and scores can be compared across groups. Structural equivalence implies that constructs have the same meaning across groups, metric equivalence implies that the metric of the scales remains stable across groups, and full scale or scalar equivalence implies that the origin of the scales is the same across groups. Several studies have observed that the structure underlying both normal personality and personality disorders (PDs) is stable across cultures. Most of this cross-cultural research was conducted in Western and Asian cultures. In Africa, the few studies were conducted with well-educated participants using French or English instruments. No research was conducted in Africa with less privileged or preliterate samples. The aim of this research was to study the structure and expression of normal and abnormal personality in an urban and a rural sample in Burkina Faso. The sample included 1,750 participants, with a sub-sample from the urban area of Ouagadougou (n = 1,249) and another sub-sample from a rural village, Soumiaga (n = 501). Most participants answered an interview consisting of a Mooré language adaptation of the Revised NEO Personality Inventory and of the International Personality Disorders Examination. Mooré is the language of the Mossi ethnic group, and the most frequently spoken local language in Burkina Faso. A sub-sample completed the same self-report instruments in French. Demographic variables only had a small impact on normal and abnormal personality traits mean levels. The structure underlying normal personality was unstable across regions and languages, illustrating that translating a complex psychological inventory into a native African language is a very difficult task. The structure underlying abnormal personality and the metric of PDs scales were stable across regions. As scalar equivalence was not reached, mean differences cannot be interpreted. Nevertheless, these differences could be due to an exaggerated expression of abnormal traits valued in the two cultural settings. Our results suggest that studies using a different methodology should be conducted to understand what is considered, in different cultures, as deviating from the expectations of the individual's culture, and as a significant impairment in self and interpersonal functioning, as defined by the DSM-5.

Major variables influencing correct antibiotic prescription by primary care physicians in acute pharyngitis: a cross-sectional study

Objectives:To analyse which are the main variables that influence primary care professionals, in the prescription of antibiotics in patients with acute pharyngitis.To analyse which is the diagnosis pattern used by primary care professionals towards cutepharyngitis. To recognize the clinical and analytical criteria that primary care professionals use, to determine antibiotic treatment in acute pharyngitis.To identify the main clinical variables related with the prescription of antibiotics by primary care professionals, in acute pharyngitis treatment. Design: Cross-­‐sectional study Participants:165 primary care professionals from the Sanitary Region of Girona not attending paediatric patients and randomly selected from 29 ABS managed by two of the main health care providers: Insitut Català de la Salut (ICS) and Institut d’Assistència Sanitària (IAS) Main outcome measures: Each participant will fill out a questionnaire with personal and workplace questions, as well as about knowledge and attitude in front of the acute pharyngitis caused by group A streptococci. They will also answer 4 clinical questions about correct treatment and diagnosis of acute pharyngitis caused by group A streptococci

Amino acid composition of soybean seeds as affected by climatic variables

The objective of this work was to perform a quantitative analysis of the amino acid composition of soybean seeds as affected by climatic variables during seed filling. Amino acids were determined from seed samples taken at harvest in 31 multi-environment field trials carried out in Argentina. Total amino acids ranged from 31.69 to 49.14%, and total essential and nonessential amino acids varied from 12.83 to 19.02% and from 18.86 to 31.15%, respectively. Variance components expressed as the percentage of total variation showed that the environment was the most important source of variation for all traits, followed by the genotype x environment interaction. Significant explanatory linear regressions were detected for amino acid content regarding: average daily mean air temperature and cumulative solar radiation, during seed filling; precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration, during the whole reproductive period; and the combinations of these climatic variables. Each amino acid behaves differently according to environmental conditions, indicating compensatory effects among them.

Predictors of mortality from pump failure and sudden cardiac death in patients with systolic heart failure and left ventricular dyssynchrony: results of the CARE-HF trial.

BACKGROUND: Determining a specific death cause may facilitate individualized therapy in patients with heart failure (HF). Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) decreased mortality in the Cardiac Resynchronization in Heart Failure trial by reducing pump failure and sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study analyzes predictors of specific causes of death. METHODS AND RESULTS: Univariate and multivariate analyses used 8 baseline and 3-month post-randomization variables to predict pump failure and SCD (categorized as "definite," "probable," and "possible"). Of 255 deaths, 197 were cardiovascular. There were 71 SCDs with a risk reduction by CRT of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.76; P = .002) with similar reductions in SCD classified as definite, probable, and possible. Univariate SCD predictors were 3-month HF status (mitral regurgitation [MR] severity, plasma brain natriuretic peptide [BNP], end-diastolic volume, and systolic blood pressure), whereas randomization to CRT decreased risk. Multivariate SCD predictors were randomization to CRT 0.56 (0.53-0.96, P = .035) and 3-month MR severity 1.82 (1.77-2.60, P = .0012). Univariate pump failure death predictors related to baseline HF state (quality of life score, interventricular mechanical delay, end-diastolic volume, plasma BNP, MR severity, and systolic pressure), whereas randomization to CRT and nonischemic cardiomyopathy decreased risk; multivariate predictors of pump failure death were baseline plasma BNP and systolic pressure and randomization to CRT. CONCLUSION: CRT decreased SCD in patients with systolic HF and ventricular dyssynchrony. SCD risk was increased with increased severity of MR (including the 3-month value for MR as a time-dependent covariate) and reduced by randomization to CRT. HF death was increased related to the level of systolic blood pressure, log BNP, and randomization to CRT. These results emphasize the importance and interdependence of HF severity to mortality from pump failure and SCD.

Dry matter production of Tanzania grass as a function of agrometeorological variables

The objective of this work was to develop and validate linear regression models to estimate the production of dry matter by Tanzania grass (Megathyrsus maximus, cultivar Tanzania) as a function of agrometeorological variables. For this purpose, data on the growth of this forage grass from 2000 to 2005, under dry‑field conditions in São Carlos, SP, Brazil, were correlated to the following climatic parameters: minimum and mean temperatures, degree‑days, and potential and actual evapotranspiration. Simple linear regressions were performed between agrometeorological variables (independent) and the dry matter accumulation rate (dependent). The estimates were validated with independent data obtained in São Carlos and Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. The best statistical results in the development and validation of the models were obtained with the agrometeorological parameters that consider thermal and water availability effects together, such as actual evapotranspiration, accumulation of degree‑days corrected by water availability, and the climatic growth index, based on average temperature, solar radiation, and water availability. These variables can be used in simulations and models to predict the production of Tanzania grass.

Análisis de la eficacia de los saques de esquina en la copa del mundo de fútbol 2010. Un intento de identificación de variables explicativas

In soccer, dead-ball moves are those in which the ball is returned to play from a stationary position following an interruption of play. The aim of this study was to analyse the effectiveness of one such dead-ball move, namely corner kicks, and to identify the key variables that determine the success of a shot or header following a corner, thereby enabling a model of successful corner kicks to be proposed. We recorded 554 corner kicks performed during the 2010 World Cup in South Africa and carried out a univariate, bivariate and multivariate analysis of the data. The results indicated that corners were of limited effectiveness in terms of the success of subsequent shots or headers. The analysis also revealed a series of variables that were significantly related to one another, and this enabled us to propose an explanatory model. Although this model had limited explanatory power, it nonetheless helps to understand the execution of corner kicks in practical terms.

Genetic diversity between improved banana diploids using canonical variables and the Ward-MLM method

The objective of this work was to estimate the genetic diversity of improved banana diploids using data from quantitative analysis and from simple sequence repeats (SSR) marker, simultaneously. The experiment was carried out with 33 diploids, in an augmented block design with 30 regular treatments and three common ones. Eighteen agronomic characteristics and 20 SSR primers were used. The agronomic characteristics and the SSR were analyzed simultaneously by the Ward-MLM, cluster, and IML procedures. The Ward clustering method considered the combined matrix obtained by the Gower algorithm. The Ward-MLM procedure identified three ideal groups (G1, G2, and G3) based on pseudo-F and pseudo-t² statistics. The dendrogram showed relative similarity between the G1 genotypes, justified by genealogy. In G2, 'Calcutta 4' appears in 62% of the genealogies. Similar behavior was observed in G3, in which the 028003-01 diploid is the male parent of the 086079-10 and 042079-06 genotypes. The method with canonical variables had greater discriminatory power than Ward-MLM. Although reduced, the genetic variability available is sufficient to be used in the development of new hybrids.

Degree of multicollinearity and variables involved in linear dependence in additive-dominant models

The objective of this work was to assess the degree of multicollinearity and to identify the variables involved in linear dependence relations in additive-dominant models. Data of birth weight (n=141,567), yearling weight (n=58,124), and scrotal circumference (n=20,371) of Montana Tropical composite cattle were used. Diagnosis of multicollinearity was based on the variance inflation factor (VIF) and on the evaluation of the condition indexes and eigenvalues from the correlation matrix among explanatory variables. The first model studied (RM) included the fixed effect of dam age class at calving and the covariates associated to the direct and maternal additive and non-additive effects. The second model (R) included all the effects of the RM model except the maternal additive effects. Multicollinearity was detected in both models for all traits considered, with VIF values of 1.03 - 70.20 for RM and 1.03 - 60.70 for R. Collinearity increased with the increase of variables in the model and the decrease in the number of observations, and it was classified as weak, with condition index values between 10.00 and 26.77. In general, the variables associated with additive and non-additive effects were involved in multicollinearity, partially due to the natural connection between these covariables as fractions of the biological types in breed composition.

Computational analysis of the genetic and environmental contributions to disease-related human phenotypes: From predicting adverse lipid response of HIV patients receiving antiretroviral therapy to genome-wide association studies of cardiovascular and lipid related disorders

Genetic variants influence the risk to develop certain diseases or give rise to differences in drug response. Recent progresses in cost-effective, high-throughput genome-wide techniques, such as microarrays measuring Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), have facilitated genotyping of large clinical and population cohorts. Combining the massive genotypic data with measurements of phenotypic traits allows for the determination of genetic differences that explain, at least in part, the phenotypic variations within a population. So far, models combining the most significant variants can only explain a small fraction of the variance, indicating the limitations of current models. In particular, researchers have only begun to address the possibility of interactions between genotypes and the environment. Elucidating the contributions of such interactions is a difficult task because of the large number of genetic as well as possible environmental factors.In this thesis, I worked on several projects within this context. My first and main project was the identification of possible SNP-environment interactions, where the phenotypes were serum lipid levels of patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) treated with antiretroviral therapy. Here the genotypes consisted of a limited set of SNPs in candidate genes relevant for lipid transport and metabolism. The environmental variables were the specific combinations of drugs given to each patient over the treatment period. My work explored bioinformatic and statistical approaches to relate patients' lipid responses to these SNPs, drugs and, importantly, their interactions. The goal of this project was to improve our understanding and to explore the possibility of predicting dyslipidemia, a well-known adverse drug reaction of antiretroviral therapy. Specifically, I quantified how much of the variance in lipid profiles could be explained by the host genetic variants, the administered drugs and SNP-drug interactions and assessed the predictive power of these features on lipid responses. Using cross-validation stratified by patients, we could not validate our hypothesis that models that select a subset of SNP-drug interactions in a principled way have better predictive power than the control models using "random" subsets. Nevertheless, all models tested containing SNP and/or drug terms, exhibited significant predictive power (as compared to a random predictor) and explained a sizable proportion of variance, in the patient stratified cross-validation context. Importantly, the model containing stepwise selected SNP terms showed higher capacity to predict triglyceride levels than a model containing randomly selected SNPs. Dyslipidemia is a complex trait for which many factors remain to be discovered, thus missing from the data, and possibly explaining the limitations of our analysis. In particular, the interactions of drugs with SNPs selected from the set of candidate genes likely have small effect sizes which we were unable to detect in a sample of the present size (<800 patients).In the second part of my thesis, I performed genome-wide association studies within the Cohorte Lausannoise (CoLaus). I have been involved in several international projects to identify SNPs that are associated with various traits, such as serum calcium, body mass index, two-hour glucose levels, as well as metabolic syndrome and its components. These phenotypes are all related to major human health issues, such as cardiovascular disease. I applied statistical methods to detect new variants associated with these phenotypes, contributing to the identification of new genetic loci that may lead to new insights into the genetic basis of these traits. This kind of research will lead to a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying these pathologies, a better evaluation of disease risk, the identification of new therapeutic leads and may ultimately lead to the realization of "personalized" medicine.

Treatment of brain metastases from non-small cell lung cancer with whole-brain radiotherapy (wbrt) in combination with gefitinib (gft) or temozolomide (tmz): a randomized multicenter phase ii trial of the swiss group of clinical cancer research (sakk #70/03)

BACKGROUND: Patients with BM rarely survive .6 months and are commonly excluded from clinical trials. We aimed at improving outcome by exploring 2 combined modality regimens with at the time novel agents for which single-agent activity had been shown. METHODS: NSCLC patients with multiple BM were randomized to WBRT (10 × 3 Gy) and either GFT 250 mg p.o. daily or TMZ 75 mg/m2 p.o. daily ×21/28 days, starting on Day 1 of RT and to be continued until PD. Primary endpoint was overall survival, a Simon's optimal 2-stage design was based on assumptions for the 3-month survival rate. Cognitive functioning and quality of life were also evaluated. RESULTS: Fifty-nine patients (36 M, 23 F; 9 after prior chemo) were included. Median age was 61 years (range 46-82), WHO PS was 0 in 18 patients, 1 in 31 patients, and 2 in 10 patients. All but 1 patients had extracranial disease; 33 of 43 (TMZ) and 15 of 16 (GFT) had adenocarcinoma histology. GFT arm was closed early after stage 1 analysis when the prespecified 3-mo survival rate threshold (66%) was not reached, causes of death were not GFT related. Main causes of death were PD in the CNS 24%, systemic 41%, both 8%, and toxicity 10% [intestinal perforation (2 patients), pneumonia (2), pulmonary emboli (1), pneumonitis NOS (1), seizure (1)]. We summarize here other patients' characteristics for the 2 trial arms: TMZ (n ¼ 43)/GFT (n ¼ 16); median treatment duration: 1.6 /1.8 mo; Grade 3-4 toxicity: lymphopenia 5 patients (12%)/0; fatigue 8 patients (19%)/2 patients (13%). Survival data for TMZ/GFT arms: 3-month survival rate: 58.1% (95% CI 42.1-73)/62.5% (95% CI 35- 85); median OS: 4.9 months (95% CI 2.5-5.6)/6.3 months (95% CI 2.2- 14.6); median PFS: 1.8 months (95% CI 1.5-1.8)/1.8 (95% CI 1.1-3.9); median time to neurol. progr.: 8.0 months (95% CI 2.2-X)/4.8 (95% CI 3.9-10.5). In a model to predict survival time including the variables' age, PS, number of BM, global QL, total MMSE score, and subjective cognitive function, none of the variables accounted for a significant improvement in survival time. CONCLUSIONS: The combinations of WBRT with GFT or TMZ were feasible. However, in this unselected patient population, survival remains poor and a high rate of complication was observed. Four patients died as a result of high-dose corticosteroids. Preliminary evaluation of cognitive function andQL failed to show significant improvement. Indications and patient selection for palliative treatment should be revisited and careful monitoring and supportive care is required. Research and progress for this frequent clinical situation is urgently needed. Trial partly supported by AstraZeneca (Switzerland), Essex Chemie (Switzerland) and Swiss Federal Government.