The Perceived AIDS Preventative Utility of Knowing One's Partner Well

The public health advice to "either know your partner well, or use condoms" may have led to higher levels of risky sexual behaviour between well-acquainted individuals whose HIV status is unknown. This study assessed the extent to which college students believe that knowing their partner well eliminates the need to practice safer sex, and measured the relationship between such beliefs and the performance of necessary safer sexual practices, such as using condoms during sexual intercourse. Endorsement of beliefs that partner knowledge made safer sex unnecessary was common, and agreement with these beliefs correlated significantly and negatively with levels of AIDS preventive behaviours and behavioural intentions, especially among women. In conclusion, the public health dictum to "know your partner" has been widely internalized, and may be contributing to risky sexual behaviour. Consideration should be given to rejecting explicitly the "know your partner" advice, and to re-educating the public regarding the necessity of consistently practising safer sex with any individual whose HIV status is unknown.

A Universal Formula for Continuous Utility

A single formula assigns a continuous utility function to every representable preference relation.

Evaluating the Utility of Clinical Criteria for the Identification of Lynch Syndrome among Endometrial Cancer Patients

Background: Lynch Syndrome (LS) is a familial cancer syndrome with a high prevalence of colorectal and endometrial carcinomas among affected family members. Clinical criteria, developed from information obtained from familial colorectal cancer registries, have been generated to identify individuals at elevated risk for having LS. In 2007, the Society of Gynecologic Oncology (SGO) codified criteria to assist in identifying women presenting with gynecologic cancers at elevated risk for having LS. These criteria have not been validated in a population-based setting. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively identified 412, unselected endometrial cancer cases. Clinical and pathologic information were obtained from the electronic medical record, and all tumors were tested for expression of the DNA mismatch repair proteins through immunohistochemistry. Tumors exhibiting loss of MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2 were designated as probable Lynch Syndrome (PLS). For tumors exhibiting immunohistochemical loss of MLH1, we used the PCR-based MLH1 methylation assay to delineate PLS tumors from sporadic tumors. Samples lacking methylation of the MLH1 promoter were also designated as PLS. The sensitivity and specificity for SGO criteria for detecting PLS tumors was calculated. We compared clinical and pathologic features of sporadic tumors and PLS tumors. A simplified cost-effectiveness analysis was also performed comparing the direct costs of utilizing SGO criteria vs. universal tumor testing. Results: In our cohort, 43/408 (10.5%) of endometrial carcinomas were designated as PLS. The sensitivity and specificity of SGO criteria to identify PLS cases were 32.7 and 77%, respectively. Multivariate analysis of clinical and pathologic parameters failed to identify statistically significant differences between sporadic and PLS tumors with the exception of tumors arising from the lower uterine segment. These tumors were more likely to occur in PLS tumors. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed clinical criteria and universal testing strategies cost $6,235.27/PLS case identified and $5,970.38/PLS case identified, respectively. Conclusions: SGO 5-10% criteria successfully identify PLS cases among women who are young or have significant family history of LS related tumors. However, a larger proportion of PLS cases occurring at older ages with less significant family history are not detected by this screening strategy. Compared to SGO clinical criteria, universal tumor testing is a cost effective strategy to identify women presenting with endometrial cancer who are at elevated risk for having LS.

Utility of thallium and geochemical analysis of Mariana arc sediments from ODP Hole 129-801A and 129-801B

We provide the first exploration of thallium (Tl) abundances and stable isotope compositions as potential tracers during arc lava genesis. We present a case study of lavas from the Central Island Province (CIP) of the Mariana arc, supplemented by representative sedimentary and altered oceanic crust (AOC) inputs from ODP Leg 129 Hole 801 outboard of the Mariana trench. Given the large Tl concentration contrast between the mantle and subduction inputs coupled with previously published distinctive Tl isotope signatures of sediment and AOC, the Tl isotope system has great potential to distinguish different inputs to arc lavas. Furthermore, CIP lavas have well-established inter island variability, providing excellent context for the examination of Tl as a new stable isotope tracer. In contrast to previous work (Nielsen et al., 2006b), we do not observe Tl enrichment or light epsilon 205Tl (where epsilon 205Tl is the deviation in parts per 10,000 of a sample 205Tl/203Tl ratio compared to NIST SRM 997 Tl standard) in the Jurassic-aged altered mafic ocean crust subducting outboard of the Marianas (epsilon 205Tl = - 4.4 to 0). The lack of a distinctive epsilon 205Tl signature may be related to secular changes in ocean chemistry. Sediments representative of the major lithologies from ODP Hole Leg 129 801 have 1-2 orders of magnitude of Tl enrichment compared to the CIP lavas, but do not record heavy signatures (epsilon 205Tl = - 3.0 to + 0.4), as previously found in similar sediment types (epsilon 205Tl > + 2.5; Rehkämper et al., 2004). We find a restricted range of epsilon 205Tl = - 1.8 to - 0.4 in CIP lavas, which overlaps with MORB. One lava from Guguan falls outside this range with epsilon 205Tl = + 1.2. Coupled Cs, Tl and Pb systematics of Guguan lavas suggests that this heavy Tl isotope composition may be due to preferential degassing of isotopically light Tl. In general, the low Tl concentrations and limited isotopic range in the CIP lavas is likely due to the unexpectedly narrow range of epsilon 205Tl found in Mariana subduction inputs, coupled with volcaniclastic, rather than pelagic sediment as the dominant source of Tl. Much work remains to better understand the controls on Tl processing through a subduction zone. For example, Tl could be retained in residual phengite, offering the potential exploration of Cs/Tl ratios as a slab thermometer. However, data for Tl partitioning in phengite (and other micas) is required before developing this application further. Establishing a database of Tl concentrations and stable isotopes in subduction zone lavas with different thermal parameters and sedimentary inputs is required for the future use of Tl as a subduction zone tracer.

The new cloud computing paradigm: the way to IT seen as a utility

In the present competitive environment, companies are wondering how to reduce their IT costs while increasing their efficiency and agility to react when changes in the business processes are required. Cloud Computing is the latest paradigm to optimize the use of IT resources considering ?everything as a service? and receiving these services from the Cloud (Internet) instead of owning and managing hardware and software assets. The benefits from the model are clear. However, there are also concerns and issues to be solved before Cloud Computing spreads across the different industries. This model will allow a pay-per-use model for the IT services and many benefits like cost savings, agility to react when business demands changes and simplicity because there will not be any infrastructure to operate and administrate. It will be comparable to the well known utilities like electricity, water or gas companies. However, this paper underlines several risk factors of the model. Leading technology companies should research on solutions to minimize the risks described in this article. Keywords - Cloud Computing, Utility Computing, Elastic Computing, Enterprise Agility

Preference intensity in MCDM when an additive utility function represents DM preferences

We propose a new method for ranking alternatives in multicriteria decision-making problems when there is imprecision concerning the alternative performances, component utility functions and weights. We assume decision maker?s preferences are represented by an additive multiattribute utility function, in which weights can be modeled by independent normal variables, fuzzy numbers, value intervals or by an ordinal relation. The approaches are based on dominance measures or exploring the weight space in order to describe which ratings would make each alternative the preferred one. On the one hand, the approaches based on dominance measures compute the minimum utility difference among pairs of alternatives. Then, they compute a measure by which to rank the alternatives. On the other hand, the approaches based on exploring the weight space compute confidence factors describing the reliability of the analysis. These methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulation.

Employment rate impacts of charging the Heavy Good Vehicle corridor (Madrid-Sevilla) across Spanish regions: a Random Utility Based Multiregional Input-Output approach

The implementation of a charging policy for heavy goods vehicles in European Union (EU) member countries has been imposed to reflect costs of construction and maintenance of infrastructure as well as externalities such as congestion, accidents and environmental impact. In this context, EU countries approved the Eurovignette directive (1999/62/EC) and its amending directive (2006 /38/EC) which established a legal framework to regulate the system of tolls. Even if that regulation seek s to increase the efficien cy of freight, it will trigger direct and indirect effects on Spain’s regional economies by increasing transport costs. This paper presents the development of a multiregional Input-Output methodology (MRIO) with elastic trade coefficients to predict in terregional trade, using transport attributes integrated in multinomial logit models. This method is highly useful to carry out an ex-ante evaluation of transport policies because it involves road freight transport cost sensitivity, and determine regional distributive and substitution economic effect s of countries like Spain, characterized by socio-demographic and economic attributes, differentiated region by region. It will thus be possible to determine cost-effective strategies, given different policy scenarios. MRIO mode l would then be used to determine the impact on the employment rate of imposing a charge in the Madrid-Sevilla corridor in Spain. This methodology is important for measuring the impact on the employment rate since it is one of the main macroeconomic indicators of Spain’s regional and national economic situation. A previous research developed (DESTINO) using a MRIO method estimated employment impacts of road pricing policy across Spanish regions considering a fuel tax charge (€/liter) in the entire shortest cost path network for freight transport. Actually, it found that the variation in employment is expected to be substantial for some regions, and negligible for others. For example, in this Spanish case study of regional employment has showed reductions between 16.1% (Rioja) and 1.4% (Madrid region). This variation range seems to be related to either the intensity of freight transport in each region or dependency of regions to transport intensive economic sect ors. In fact, regions with freight transport intensive sectors will lose more jobs while regions with a predominantly service economy undergo a fairly insignificant loss of employment. This paper is focused on evaluating a freight transport vehicle-kilometer charge (€/km) in a non-tolled motorway corridor (A-4) between Madrid-Sevilla (517 Km.). The consequences of the road pricing policy implementation show s that the employment reductions are not as high as the diminution stated in the previous research because this corridor does not affect the whole freight transport system of Spain.

Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Methodology for assessing regional economic impacts of charging HGVs in Spain: an integrated approach through a random utility based multiregional input-output and a road transportation network model

An integrated approach composed of a random utility-based multiregional input-output model and a road transport network model was developed for evaluating the application of a fee to heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) in Spain. For this purpose, a distance-based charge scenario (in euros per vehicle kilometer) for HGVs was evaluated for a selected motorway network in Spain. Although the aim of this charging policy was to increase the efficiency of transport, the approach strongly identified direct and indirect impacts on the regional economy. Estimates of the magnitude and extent of indirect effects on aggregated macroeconomic indicators (employment and gross domestic product) are provided. The macroeconomic effects of the charging policy were found to be positive for some regions and negative for other regions.

A random utility based multiregional input-output approach to estimate the impact of a new highway on the regional distribution of jobs

This paper addresses the economic impact assessment of the construction of a new road on the regional distribution of jobs. The paper summarizes different existing model approaches considered to assess economic impacts through a literature review. Afterwards, we present the development of a comprehensive approach for analyzing the interaction of new transport infrastructure and the economic impact through an integrated model. This model has been applied to the construction of the motorway A-40 in Spain (497 Km.) which runs across three regions without passing though Madrid City. This may in turn lead to the relocation of labor and capital due to the improvement of accessibility of markets or inputs. The result suggests the existence of direct and indirect effects in other regions derived from the improvement of the transportation infrastructure, and confirms the relevance of road freight transport in some regions. We found that the changes in regional employment are substantial for some regions (increasing or decreasing jobs), but a t the same time negligible in other regions. As a result,the approach provides broad guidance to national governments and other transport-related parties about the impacts of this transport policy.

An Integrated Transport Planning Framework Involving a Combined Utility-Regret Approach

Sustainable transport planning requires an integrated approach involving strategic planning, impact analysis and multi-criteria evaluation. This study aims at relaxing the utility-based decision-making assumption by newly embedding anticipated-regret and combined utility-regret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The framework consists of a two-round Delphi survey, an integrated land-use and transport model for Madrid, and multi-criteria analysis. Results show that (i) regret-based ranking has similar mean but larger variance than utility-based ranking; (ii) the least-regret scenario forms a compromise between the desired and the expected scenarios; (iii) the least-regret scenario can lead to higher user benefits in the short-term and lower user benefits in the long-term; (iv) utility-based, regret-based and combined utility-regret-based multi-criteria analysis result in different rankings of policy packages; and (v) the combined utility-regret ranking is more informative compared with utility-based or regret-based ranking.

Qualitative operational value at risk for an electric utility based on the guidelines of the basel committee

This paper presents a model for determining value at operational risk ?OpVaR? in electric utilities, with the aim to confirm the versatility of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) proposals. The model intends to open a new methodological approach in risk management, paying special attention to underlying operational sources of risk.

Incorporating equity into transport planning: utility, priority and sufficiency approaches

The analysis addresses the issue of transport equity and explores three different approaches to equity in transport: utilitarianism, sufficientarianism and prioritarianism. Each approach calls for a different treatment of the benefits reaped by different population groups in the assessment of transport investments or policies. In utilitarianism, which underlies much of the current practice of transport project appraisal, all benefits receive the same weight, irrespective of the recipient of the benefits. In both sufficientarianism and prioritarianism, benefits are weighed in distinct ways, depending on the characteristics of the recipients. The three approaches are illustrated using a fictive case study, in which three different transport investment are assessed and compared to each other. Finally, the assessment of transport investments will be explored using the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA assesses the distributional effects of transport investments for utilitarism, sufficientarism and prioritarism approaches and addresses distinct needs associated with different population groups in respect to their transport

A aplicação do Gerenciamento de Riscos nas PMEs na cidade de São Bernardo do Campo

Este estudo analisa a utilização do gerenciamento de riscos em algumas Empresas de Pequeno e Médio Porte (PMEs) na cidade de São Bernardo do Campo. A análise do risco empresarial possui uma crescente importância e ela pode contribuir fortemente para a continuidade dos negócios. A capacidade para gerenciar os riscos do negócio em relação ás inevitáveis incertezas e com uma valorização futura dos resultados é um fator substancial de vantagem competitiva. Este processo de geração de valor providencia a disciplina e ferramentas de administração dos riscos empresariais permitindo a criação de valor para sua organização. As Metodologias de Análise de Risco, em sua maioria, são aplicadas para grandes corporações. Uma das motivações desse trabalho é verificar o grau de utilidade dessas metodologias para as empresas PMEs escolhidas para a pesquisa em São Bernardo do Campo. O estudo é desenvolvido por meio de pesquisas bibliográficas e pesquisa exploratória nas empresas escolhidas. Após as pesquisas, foi feita uma análise qualitativa utilizando o método de estudo de casos. Finalmente, conclui-se que as empresas pesquisadas de São Bernardo do Campo, podem obter vantagens significativas ao implantar metodologias de gerenciamento de risco. Todas as empresas pesquisadas possuem mais de dez anos e consideram importante controlar a continuidade de seus negócios.