A Dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price

Summary

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Impact of a program to prevent incivility towards and assault of healthcare staff in an ophtalmological emergency unit: study protocol for the PREVURGO On/Off trial.

BACKGROUND: The emergency department has been identified as an area within the health care sector with the highest reports of violence. The best way to control violence is to prevent it before it becomes an issue. Ideally, to prevent violent episodes we should eliminate all triggers of frustration and violence. Our study aims to assess the impact of a quality improvement multi-faceted program aiming at preventing incivility and violence against healthcare professionals working at the ophthalmological emergency department of a teaching hospital. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is a single-center prospective, controlled time-series study with an alternate-month design. The prevention program is based on the successive implementation of five complementary interventions: a) an organizational approach with a standardized triage algorithm and patient waiting number screen, b) an environmental approach with clear signage of the premises, c) an educational approach with informational videos for patients and accompanying persons in waiting rooms, d) a human approach with a mediator in waiting rooms and e) a security approach with surveillance cameras linked to the hospital security. The primary outcome is the rate of incivility or violence by patients, or those accompanying them against healthcare staff. All patients admitted to the ophthalmological emergency department, and those accompanying them, will be enrolled. In all, 45,260 patients will be included in over a 24-month period. The unit analysis will be the patient admitted to the emergency department. Data analysis will be blinded to allocation, but due to the nature of the intervention, physicians and patients will not be blinded. DISCUSSION: The strengths of this study include the active solicitation of event reporting, that this is a prospective study and that the study enables assessment of each of the interventions that make up the program. The challenge lies in identifying effective interventions, adapting them to the context of care in an emergency department, and thoroughly assessing their efficacy with a high level of proof.The study has been registered as a cRCT at clinicaltrials.gov (identifier: NCT02015884).

Prevalence and factors of intensive care unit conflicts: the conflicus study.

RATIONALE: Many sources of conflict exist in intensive care units (ICUs). Few studies recorded the prevalence, characteristics, and risk factors for conflicts in ICUs. OBJECTIVES: To record the prevalence, characteristics, and risk factors for conflicts in ICUs. METHODS: One-day cross-sectional survey of ICU clinicians. Data on perceived conflicts in the week before the survey day were obtained from 7,498 ICU staff members (323 ICUs in 24 countries). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Conflicts were perceived by 5,268 (71.6%) respondents. Nurse-physician conflicts were the most common (32.6%), followed by conflicts among nurses (27.3%) and staff-relative conflicts (26.6%). The most common conflict-causing behaviors were personal animosity, mistrust, and communication gaps. During end-of-life care, the main sources of perceived conflict were lack of psychological support, absence of staff meetings, and problems with the decision-making process. Conflicts perceived as severe were reported by 3,974 (53%) respondents. Job strain was significantly associated with perceiving conflicts and with greater severity of perceived conflicts. Multivariate analysis identified 15 factors associated with perceived conflicts, of which 6 were potential targets for future intervention: staff working more than 40 h/wk, more than 15 ICU beds, caring for dying patients or providing pre- and postmortem care within the last week, symptom control not ensured jointly by physicians and nurses, and no routine unit-level meetings. CONCLUSIONS: Over 70% of ICU workers reported perceived conflicts, which were often considered severe and were significantly associated with job strain. Workload, inadequate communication, and end-of-life care emerged as important potential targets for improvement.

Parental attitude towards alternative medicine in the paediatric intensive care unit.

The interest in alternative medicine (AM) is growing. In the USA and Canada, studies showed that 34% of adults and 11% of children use AM. In a prospective cohort study, we investigated the interest in AM among parents of critically ill children in the paediatric Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a university hospital. From January 1996 to April 1997, we distributed questionnaires to the parents of critically ill children. These strictly anonymous questionnaires were completed at home and returned by mail. Exclusion criteria were short ( < 1 day) or repeated hospitalizations, and insufficient proficiency of the German language. The inclusion criteria were fulfilled by 591 patients; 561 received the questionnaire (95%) and 289 (52%) were returned. Of the respondents, 70% would appreciate AM as a complementary therapy on the ICU, 23% found AM equally or more important than conventional medicine whereas only 7% regarded AM as unimportant. On the ICU, 18% used AM; surprisingly 41% of them did not discuss it with physicians or nurses. An additional 21% would have liked to use AM, but did not do so. Typically, AM-users administered AM also at home to their children and themselves. Their children were however, older.CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of parents used measures of alternative medicine in the intensive care unit, or would have like to do so. However, few had the confidence to discuss this wish with the medical personal. This suggests that alternative medicine is of great interest, even on an intensive care unit. Nevertheless, discussion about alternative medicine seems to be taboo in doctor-patient relations.

10 ans de lutte contre la violence domestique dans le canton de Vaud: résumé de la recherche menée par l'Unité de Médecine des Violences (UMV) sur mandat de la Commission cantonale de lutte contre la violence domestique (CCLVD)

[Sommaire] Introduction. - 1. Quelques données de base: le contexte juridique, la violence domestique: une réalité chiffrée, principales institutions du réseau d'aide dans le canton de Vaud. - 2. Résumé de la recherche "10 ans de lutte contre la violence domestique dans le canton de Vaud": contexte, méthode, résultats, recommandations à l'intention de la CCLVD. - 3. Axes stratégiques de la politique cantonale de prévention de lutte contre la violence domestique 2011-2015. - Bibliographie [Introduction (extrait)] La violence entre membres d'une même famille ou entre proches, à savoir la violence domestique, a longtemps été considérée comme une affaire privée et un tabou. Un important changement de mentalité s'est toutefois opéré ces 20 dernières années. La lutte contre la violence envers les femmes d'une manière générale et contre la violence domestique en particulier préoccupe de plus en plus les organes internationaux, nationaux et locaux et est reconnue comme une tâche d'intérêt public. [...] Dans le canton de Vaud, en 1999, le Bureau de l'égalité entre les femmes et les hommes (BEFH) a mandaté l'Unité de Prévention de l'Institut de médecine sociale et préventive du CHUV, afin de mener une étude sur la violence conjugale, auprès des institutions concernées2. Cette recherche visait à établir un état des lieux et à identifier les besoins prioritaires. En 2001, des recommandations ont émergé de cette étude sous la forme de 40 mesures. Six d'entre elles ont été retenues comme prioritaires par la Conseillère d'Etat Madame Jacqueline Maurer Mayor. Presque 10 ans après, en automne 2008, la Commission cantonale de lutte contre la violence domestique (CCLVD), instituée par le Conseil d'Etat afin de coordonner les efforts en vue de la prévention et de la lutte contre la violence domestique, a décidé de faire un bilan sur la réalisation de ces mesures, d'identifier les besoins actuels des professionnel-le-s de terrain et les problématiques émergeantes. Les résultats de cette étude, menée par L'Unité d médecine des violences (UMV) ont servi de fondement à la CCLVD dans l'établissement d'un plan stratégique 2011-2015, en matière de lutte contre la violence conjugale dans le canton de Vaud. Le présent document présente à la fois un éclairage contextuel sur la situation dans le canton de Vaud aujourd'hui et une synthèse de la recherche précitée.

Uniform-price assignment markets

Uniform-price assignment games are introduced as those assignment markets with the core reduced to a segment. In these games, for all active agents, competitive prices are uniform although products may be non-homogeneous. A characterization in terms of the assignment matrix is given. The only assignment markets where all submarkets are uniform are the Bohm-Bawerk horse markets. We prove that for uniform-price assignment games the kernel, or set of symmetrically-pairwise bargained allocations, either coincides with the core or reduces to the nucleolus

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Human Services – Targeted Case Management Unit for the year ended June 30, 2011

Audit report on the Iowa Department of Human Services – Targeted Case Management Unit for the year ended June 30, 2011

Prospective monitoring of cefepime in intensive care unit adult patients.

INTRODUCTION: Cefepime has been associated with a greater risk of mortality than other beta-lactams in patients treated for severe sepsis. Hypotheses for this failure include possible hidden side-effects (for example, neurological) or inappropriate pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) parameters for bacteria with cefepime minimal inhibitory concentrations (MIC) at the highest limits of susceptibility (8 mg/l) or intermediate-resistance (16 mg/l) for pathogens such as Enterobacteriaceae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus. We examined these issues in a prospective non-interventional study of 21 consecutive intensive care unit (ICU) adult patients treated with cefepime for nosocomial pneumonia. METHODS: Patients (median age 55.1 years, range 21.8 to 81.2) received intravenous cefepime at 2 g every 12 hours for creatinine clearance (CLCr) >or= 50 ml/min, and 2 g every 24 hours or 36 hours for CLCr < 50 ml/minute. Cefepime plasma concentrations were determined at several time-points before and after drug administration by high-pressure liquid chromatography. PK/PD parameters were computed by standard non-compartmental analysis. RESULTS: Seventeen first-doses and 11 steady states (that is, four to six days after the first dose) were measured. Plasma levels varied greatly between individuals, from two- to three-fold at peak-concentrations to up to 40-fold at trough-concentrations. Nineteen out of 21 (90%) patients had PK/PD parameters comparable to literature values. Twenty-one of 21 (100%) patients had appropriate duration of cefepime concentrations above the MIC (T>MIC >or= 50%) for the pathogens recovered in this study (MIC <or= 4 mg/l), but only 45 to 65% of them had appropriate coverage for potential pathogens with cefepime MIC >or= 8 mg/l. Moreover, 2/21 (10%) patients with renal impairment (CLCr < 30 ml/minute) demonstrated accumulation of cefepime in the plasma (trough concentrations of 20 to 30 mg/l) in spite of dosage adjustment. Both had symptoms compatible with non-convulsive epilepsy (confusion and muscle jerks) that were not attributed to cefepime-toxicity until plasma levels were disclosed to the caretakers and symptoms resolved promptly after drug arrest. CONCLUSIONS: These empirical results confirm the suspected risks of hidden side-effects and inappropriate PK/PD parameters (for pathogens with upper-limit MICs) in a population of ICU adult patients. Moreover, it identifies a safety and efficacy window for cefepime doses of 2 g every 12 hours in patients with a CLCr >or= 50 ml/minute infected by pathogens with cefepime MICs <or= 4 mg/l. On the other hand, prompt monitoring of cefepime plasma levels should be considered in case of lower CLCr or greater MICs.

Price transmission and market power analysis in the Spanish seafood market chain

[cat] Espanya és un dels principals mercats de productes pesquers d’Europa i del món. El consum de productes pesquers ha estat tradicionalment molt important a Espanya, el 2005 es varen consumir 36,7 kg per persona (MAPA, diversos anys). Malgrat això, el mercat i cóm interactuen els diversos nivells de la cadena de comercialització han gaudit de poca atenció. En aquest estudi, utilitzant dades setmanals, s’analitza per als dotze principals productes pesquers, l’elasticitat en la transmissió de preus al llarg de la cadena de comercialització a Espanya (llotja, mercat central i detallista). Finalment s’investiga la presència d’assimetria en la transmissió de preus entre aquests nivells de mercat. Els resultats obtinguts tenen importants implicacions a l’hora d’analitzar la demanda, poder de mercat i marges al llarg del mercat per als productes pesquers.

Drug price differentials caused by de-listing and price cap policies

This paper analyses the behaviour of pharmaceutical companies that face the threat of having their drugs excluded from reimbursement and the markets characterised also by price caps. We conclude that price elasticity of demand and cost differentials cause the price discounts which drug firms offer to health care organisations. Additionally, we conclude that price cap regulations affect the time path of prices, resulting in higher prices for new products and lower prices for old products.

Audit report of the State University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, and its discretely presented component unit as of and for the years ended June 30, 2012 and 2011

Audit report of the State University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, and its discretely presented component unit as of and for the years ended June 30, 2012 and 2011