Trends in Migrations of Refugees in Serbia

This project aimed to establish a comprehensive long-term projection of refugee migration trends in Serbia which would allow the different organisations engaged in caring for refugees to plan their work more effectively. Mr. Cvetkovic studied first the official records of numbers and origins of refugees and the various definitions used to describe refugees, exiled persons, etc., considering also the indication of nationality, i.e. Serb or Yugoslav, and the future intentions expressed by refugees. He concluded that more than three quarters of the total number of refugees in Serbia wish to remain in Serbia/Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and only 20% wish to repatriate. He concludes that the situation in relation to the ethnic-national structure of Serbia is extremely complicated, even to the point of chaos. One certainty is that sooner or later a huge majority of the refugees in Serbia today will be granted full citizenship and will then participate in the choice of the political system and the dominant national values and institutions of the country. The experiences of the refugees, as well as of their fellow nationals in Serbia, make it relatively unlikely that they will make rational choices that could produce a balance between civil democracy and national totalitarianism. Insofar as overall political relations within Serbia and its Federation with Montenegro develop along democratic lines, the civic identity of Serbs (as opposed to their national/ethnic status) can be expected to become stronger, and the civil and national to become an integral part of thinking which does not represent a challenge to the democratic state. This would help ensure that the migratory movements of the Serbs and of other national and ethnic groups in the region are motivated by economic rather than political or ethnic reasons.

Inferences regarding the diet of extinct hominins: structural and functional trends in dental and mandibular morphology within the hominin clade

This contribution investigates the evolution of diet in the Pan – Homo and hominin clades. It does this by focusing on 12 variables (nine dental and three mandibular) for which data are available about extant chimpanzees, modern humans and most extinct hominins. Previous analyses of this type have approached the interpretation of dental and gnathic function by focusing on the identification of the food consumed (i.e. fruits, leaves, etc.) rather than on the physical properties (i.e. hardness, toughness, etc.) of those foods, and they have not specifically addressed the role that the physical properties of foods play in determining dental adaptations. We take the available evidence for the 12 variables, and set out what the expression of each of those variables is in extant chimpanzees, the earliest hominins, archaic hominins, megadont archaic hominins, and an inclusive grouping made up of transitional hominins and pre-modern Homo . We then present hypotheses about what the states of these variables would be in the last common ancestor of the Pan – Homo clade and in the stem hominin. We review the physical properties of food and suggest how these physical properties can be used to investigate the functional morphology of the dentition. We show what aspects of anterior tooth morphology are critical for food preparation (e.g. peeling fruit) prior to its ingestion, which features of the postcanine dentition (e.g. overall and relative size of the crowns) are related to the reduction in the particle size of food, and how information about the macrostructure (e.g. enamel thickness) and microstructure (e.g. extent and location of enamel prism decussation) of the enamel cap might be used to make predictions about the types of foods consumed by extinct hominins. Specifically, we show how thick enamel can protect against the generation and propagation of cracks in the enamel that begin at the enamel– dentine junction and move towards the outer enamel surface.

TRENDS IN PARTICULATE MATTER AND MORTALITY: AN APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDING

We propose a method for diagnosing confounding bias under a model which links a spatially and temporally varying exposure and health outcome. We decompose the association into orthogonal components, corresponding to distinct spatial and temporal scales of variation. If the model fully controls for confounding, the exposure effect estimates should be equal at the different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the overall exposure effect estimate is a weighted average of the scale-specific exposure effect estimates. We use this approach to estimate the association between monthly averages of fine particles (PM2.5) over the preceding 12 months and monthly mortality rates in 113 U.S. counties from 2000-2002. We decompose the association between PM2.5 and mortality into two components: 1) the association between “national trends” in PM2.5 and mortality; and 2) the association between “local trends,” defined as county-specificdeviations from national trends. This second component provides evidence as to whether counties having steeper declines in PM2.5 also have steeper declines in mortality relative to their national trends. We find that the exposure effect estimates are different at these two spatio-temporalscales, which raises concerns about confounding bias. We believe that the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the national scale is more likely to be confounded than is the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the local scale. If the association at the national scale is set aside, there is little evidence of an association between 12-month exposure to PM2.5 and mortality.

Cellular telephone use and time trends in brain tumour mortality in Switzerland from 1969 to 2002

A rising concern exists that with the widespread use of mobile communication technologies, the incidence of brain tumours may increase. On the basis of data from the Swiss national mortality registry from 1969 to 2002, annual age-standardized brain tumour mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated using the European standard population. Time trend analyses were performed by the Poisson regression for six different age groups in men and women separately. The study period was divided into two intervals: before and after 1987, when the analogue mobile technology was introduced in Switzerland. Age-standardized brain tumour mortality rates ranged between 3.7 and 6.7 for men and 2.5 and 4.4 for women per 100,000 person-years. For the whole study period, a significant increase in brain tumour mortality was observed for men and women in the older age groups (60-74 and 75+ years) but not in the younger ones in whom mobile phone use was more prevalent. Time trend analyses restricted to data from 1987 onwards revealed relatively stable brain tumour mortality rates in all age groups. For instance, the annual change in brain tumour mortality rate for the 45-59-year age group was -0.3% (95% confidence interval: -1.7; 1.1) for men and -0.4% (95% confidence interval:-2.2; 1.3) for women. We conclude that after the introduction of mobile phone technology in Switzerland, brain tumour mortality rates remained stable in all age groups. Our results suggest that mobile phone use is not a strong risk factor in the short term for mortality from brain tumours. Ecological analyses like this, however, are limited in their ability to reveal potentially small increases in risk for diseases with a long latency period.

Current trends in hormone replacement therapy: perceptions and usage

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether physicians' confidence in the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) for climacteric symptoms has been affected by the negative media interpretation of data from landmark studies investigating HRT usage such as the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study. METHODS: A structured questionnaire was completed via the internet by European and US gynecologists, obstetrician/gynecologists and general practitioners - all experienced in treating women with climacteric symptoms. RESULTS: Six hundred physicians completed the survey in six countries. Overall, 98% agreed that the menopause significantly affects quality of life and 97% considered that the majority/all of their patients experienced positive benefits from HRT. Most physicians (90%) believed the benefits of HRT outweigh the risks in suitable patients, and 92% would prescribe HRT for themselves/spouse/family. For treatment of atrophic vaginitis, 86% agreed that local estrogen was the most effective course of action. While 82% of participants were aware of the latest recommendations on low-dose HRT, and estrogen dose in particular, 67% cited lowering the progestogen dose as important. With regard to the recent negative media coverage on HRT, 78% of physicians felt this was unjustified. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide reassurance that health-care professionals in Europe and the US, experienced in treating women with climacteric symptoms, have not lost confidence in HRT. Despite a consensus on the importance of lowering the dose of HRT and a focus on estrogen, there remains a need to heighten prescribers' awareness on the pivotal role that a lower progestogen dose plays in optimizing the risk-benefit profile.

Changing trends in causes and patterns of facial fractures in children

OBJECTIVE: To review the epidemiology of facial fractures in children and to analyze whether it has changed over time. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective review of records of children aged < or = 15 years diagnosed for fracture during 2 10-year periods. RESULTS: A total of 378 children were diagnosed with fractures, 187 in 1980-1989 and 191 in 1993-2002. The proportion of children with mandibular fractures decreased by 13.6 percentage-points from the first period to the second, whereas the proportion of patients with midfacial fractures increased by 18.7 percentage-points. Assault as a causative factor increased by 5.5 percentage-points, almost exclusively among children aged 13-15 years, with a high percentage (23.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Recognition of a change in fracture patterns over time is probably due to the increased use of computerized tomographic scanning.