Estimation of the Spatial Weights Matrix under Structural Constraints

While estimates of models with spatial interaction are very sensitive to the choice of spatial weights, considerable uncertainty surrounds de nition of spatial weights in most studies with cross-section dependence. We show that, in the spatial error model the spatial weights matrix is only partially identi ed, and is fully identifi ed under the structural constraint of symmetry. For the spatial error model, we propose a new methodology for estimation of spatial weights under the assumption of symmetric spatial weights, with extensions to other important spatial models. The methodology is applied to regional housing markets in the UK, providing an estimated spatial weights matrix that generates several new hypotheses about the economic and socio-cultural drivers of spatial di¤usion in housing demand.

Pecuniary Externality through Credit Constraints: Two Examples without Uncertainty

This paper is a contribution to the growing literature on constrained inefficiencies in economies with financial frictions. The purpose is to present two simple examples, inspired by the stochastic models in Gersbach-Rochet (2012) and Lorenzoni (2008), of deterministic environments in which such inefficiencies arise through credit constraints. Common to both examples is a pecuniary externality, which operates through an asset price. In the second example, a simple transfer between two groups of agents can bring about a Pareto improvement. In a first best economy, there are no pecuniary externalities because marginal productivities are equalised. But when agents face credit constraints, there is a wedge between their marginal productivities and those of the non-credit-constrained agents. The wedge is the source of the pecuniary externality: economies with these kinds of imperfections in credit markets are not second-best efficient. This is akin to the constrained inefficiency of an economy with incomplete markets, as in Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis (1986).

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics, financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995-2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997-98 Asian crisis and the 2007-09 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.

Evaluation of the xenodiagnosis of chronic Chagas patients infected ten years or over in an area where transmission has been interrupted - Iguatama and Pains, west Minas Gerais State, Brazil

To evaluate the results of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas patients infected for ten years or over in an area where transmission has been stemmed as well as the performance of these tests applied one or more times to determine the presence of the paraiste in serum-positive patients for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, 570 xenodiagnosis were performed in 246 patients by exoposing each pacient to 40 Triatoma infestans nymphs of 3 rd/4th stage once, twice or three times, at 30 days intervals. The 570 xenodiagnosis showed overall positive results in 50.7% with a peak 78% in patients under 20 years of age, and 60.5% in those over 60. Of the l58 patients who underwent three xenodiagnosis, 51 (32.3%) had three positive tests, 48 (30.3%) had all negative results, and the remainder had alternating positve and negative findings. There was no difference in number of positive results between the 1st, 2nd and 2rd tests; however, the 1st and 2nd trials added up to 53.2% and the sum total of all three trials was 57.7%.

Serological survey for canine cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in areas at risk for transmission in Rio de Janeiro where prophylatic measures had been adopted

A serological survery for canine visceral (VL) and American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) has been carried out during 1984-1989, to assess the effects of the prophylactic measures adopted in areas where there was a risk of transmission of the diseases in Rio de Janeiro. A previous serologival survey (1982/83) had detected serum positive dogas as well as the human disease in these same areas. A total fo 22,828 dogs have been examined in this last survey, 7,807 of which came from Campo Grande (VL and ACL area), 4,110 from Jacarepaguá (ACL area), 4,l46 from Realengo, 3,879 from Bangu and 2,886 from Senador Camará, (three VL areas). The analysis of these results showed a notable reduction in the number of serum positve dogs, compared to those of the first survey was 12.7%, against 0.62% of the second; (b) in Jacarepaguá (ACL) it decreased from 8.6%) to l.8% (c) in Bangu, Realengo and Senador Camará (VL) the rate decreased from 4.3% to 0.38%. The results indicate that this decrease was due to the prophylactic measures adopted in those areas.

Small firms, growth and financial constraints

This paper analyses the impact of different sources of finance on the growth of firms. Using panel data from Spanish manufacturing firms for the period 2000-2006, we investigate the effects of internal and external finances on firm growth. In particular, we examine three dimensions of these financial sources: a) the performance of the firms’ capital structure in accordance with firm size; b) the effects of internal and external financial sources on growth performance; c) the combined effect of equity, external debt and cash flow on firm growth. We find that low-growth firms are sensitive to cash flow and short-term bank debt, while high-growth firms are more sensitive to long-term debt. Furthermore, equity capital seems to reduce barriers to external finance. Our main conclusion is that during the start-up phase, firms are unable to increase their financial leverage and so their capital structure fails to promote correct investment strategies. However, as their equity capital increases, alternative financial mechanisms, in particular long-term debt, become available, which have a positive impact on firm growth.

Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

The threat of reintroduction of natural transmission of Chagas' disease in Bambuí, Minas Gerais state, Brazil, due to Panstrongylus megistus

In the Epidemiological Surveillance Program in the county of Bambuí, Minas Gerais, between August 1986 and December 1988, 154 Panstrongylus megistus were captured by the local population in both peridomicile and intradomicile environments. Fifteen (9.8%) of the P. megistus harboured Trypanosoma cruzi. Preciptin tests showed that the most frequent triatomine blood meal sources were birds, but other sources were dogs, men and cats. The isoenzyme characterization of 13 T. cruzi strains showed that six belonged to zymodeme Z1, corresponding to the wild parasites, and seven belonged to zymodeme Z2, corresponding to parasites isolated from chronic chagasic patients (domestic cycle). As P. megistus were found to be naturally infected by parasites from both cycles, they are cleary able to transmit T. cruzi from the wild cycle to the domestic cycle. Furthermore the capacity of P. megistus in colonizing houses was observed in one residence, vacant for several years, in wich 153 triatomines were captured. The data show the possibility of P. megistus reintroducing transmission of Chaga's disease in the county if Epidemiological Surveillance is interrupted.

Stable transmission of targeted gene modification using single-stranded oligonucleotides with flanking LNAs.

Targeted mutagenesis directed by oligonucleotides (ONs) is a promising method for manipulating the genome in higher eukaryotes. In this study, we have compared gene editing by different ONs on two new target sequences, the eBFP and the rd1 mutant photoreceptor betaPDE cDNAs, which were integrated as single copy transgenes at the same genomic site in 293T cells. Interestingly, antisense ONs were superior to sense ONs for one target only, showing that target sequence can by itself impart strand-bias in gene editing. The most efficient ONs were short 25 nt ONs with flanking locked nucleic acids (LNAs), a chemistry that had only been tested for targeted nucleotide mutagenesis in yeast, and 25 nt ONs with phosphorothioate linkages. We showed that LNA-modified ONs mediate dose-dependent target modification and analyzed the importance of LNA position and content. Importantly, when using ONs with flanking LNAs, targeted gene modification was stably transmitted during cell division, which allowed reliable cloning of modified cells, a feature essential for further applications in functional genomics and gene therapy. Finally, we showed that ONs with flanking LNAs aimed at correcting the rd1 stop mutation could promote survival of photoreceptors in retinas of rd1 mutant mice, suggesting that they are also active in vivo.

Preliminary investigations on transmission and life cycle of the ear mites of the genus Raillietia trouessart (Acari: Gamasida) parasites of cattle

The life cycle of ear mites of the genus Raillietia Trouessart consists of egg, larva, proto-and deutonymph and adult. The proto-and deutonymph are free living, non feeding instars. The teneral adult is the transfer stage. The minimum period required for completion of the life cycle is approximately eight days.

Household-based malaria control in a highly endemic area of Africa (Tanzania): determinants of transmission and disease and indicators for monitoring - Kilombero Malaria Project

The Kilombero Malaria Project (KMP) attemps to define opperationally useful indicators of levels of transmission and disease and health system relevant monitoring indicators to evaluate the impact of disease control at the community or health facility level. The KMP is longitudinal community based study (N = 1024) in rural Southern Tanzania, investigating risk factors for malarial morbidity and developing household based malaria control strategies. Biweekly morbidity and bimonthly serological, parasitological and drug consumption surveys are carried out in all study households. Mosquito densities are measured biweekly in 50 sentinel houses by timed light traps. Determinants of transmission and indicators of exposure were not strongly aggregated within households. Subjective morbidity (recalled fever), objective morbidity (elevated body temperature and high parasitaemia) and chloroquine consumption were strongly aggregated within a few households. Nested analysis of anti-NANP40 antibody suggest that only approximately 30% of the titer variance can explained by household clustering and that the largest proportion of antibody titer variability must be explained by non-measured behavioral determinants relating to an individual's level of exposure within a household. Indicators for evaluation and monitoring and outcome measures are described within the context of health service management to describe control measure output in terms of community effectiveness.

Transmission and diagnosis of equine babesiosis in South Africa

The transmission and prevalence of Babesia equi and B. caballi are being studied. Rhipicephalus evertsi mimeticus an ixodid tick from Namibia was identified as a new vector of B. equi, however, R. turanicus, previously reported to be a vector, failed to transmit both B. equi and B. caballi in the laboratory. The accurate diagnosis of B. caballi is being investigated because the nature of its low level parasitaemia does not allow easy detection in thin blood smears, routinely used for diagnosis, by clinicians. Consequently its role as a pathogen remains obscure. The importance of identifying infected horses, destined for export to Babesia-free coutries, is also stressed. Thock and thin blood smears, serology (IFAT) and DNA probes are currently employed to study disease prevalence. To date 293 healthy, adult, throughbred horses have been screened by all three methods. The percentage positives are as follows: B. equi 4.4%, 70.6%, 13% and B. caballi 0.7%, 37%, 18.4% respectively. The DNA probes were more sensitive than blood smear examination for diagnosing carrier infections but are probably not sensitive enough to identify all carrier infections. A poor correlation was found between detection of the parasites' DNA and seropositivity. However, polymerase chain reaction could be used to amplify parasite DNA in a particular sample and its could result in more accurate diagnosis.

Transmission immunity in malaria: reflections on the underlying immune mechanisms during natural infections and following artificial immunization

Malaria transmission-blocking immunity has been studied in natural malaria infections in man, during infections in animals and following artificial immunization of animals with sexual stage malaria parasites. Effective immunity, which prevents infectivity of a malarial infection to mosquitoes, has been observed under all of these circumstances. Two general types of effector mechanism have been identified. One is an antibody mediated mechanism which acts against the extracellular sexual stages of the parasite within the midgut of a blood feeding mosquito. The other is a cytokine mediated mechanism which inactivates the gametocytes of the parasites while in the circulation of the vertebrate host. Both effects have been observed during natural infections and following artificial immunization. The basis of induction of transmission-blocking immunity, including the nature of the memory for such immunity, however, may be very different in different host/parasite systems and during natural infection of following artificial immunization. Following artificial immunization a strong immune memory for transmission blocking immunity has been observed in animal systems. By contrast, following natural infections in man immune memory for transmission blocking immunity has been found to be weak and short lived if it occurs at all. It is suggested that the immunogens which induce natural transmission blocking immunity may be CD4+ independent.