Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Trabecular bone score (TBS) as a new complementary approach for osteoporosis evaluation in clinical practice.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a recently-developed analytical tool that performs novel grey-level texture measurements on lumbar spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images, and thereby captures information relating to trabecular microarchitecture. In order for TBS to usefully add to bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factors in osteoporosis risk stratification, it must be independently associated with fracture risk, readily obtainable, and ideally, present a risk which is amenable to osteoporosis treatment. This paper summarizes a review of the scientific literature performed by a Working Group of the European Society for Clinical and Economic Aspects of Osteoporosis and Osteoarthritis. Low TBS is consistently associated with an increase in both prevalent and incident fractures that is partly independent of both clinical risk factors and areal BMD (aBMD) at the lumbar spine and proximal femur. More recently, TBS has been shown to have predictive value for fracture independent of fracture probabilities using the FRAX® algorithm. Although TBS changes with osteoporosis treatment, the magnitude is less than that of aBMD of the spine, and it is not clear how change in TBS relates to fracture risk reduction. TBS may also have a role in the assessment of fracture risk in some causes of secondary osteoporosis (e.g., diabetes, hyperparathyroidism and glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis). In conclusion, there is a role for TBS in fracture risk assessment in combination with both aBMD and FRAX.

CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV), the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR), and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

Translation and psychometric evaluation of a French version of the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the reliability and the factor structure of the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale - French version. BACKGROUND: The patient's perspective is essential when assessing risk for adverse events at hospital discharge. Developed in the USA, the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale is the only instrument that measures an individual's self-perception of readiness before leaving the hospital. A French version of the Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale was developed and validated. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: A convenience sample of 265 older inpatients from four medical units was selected. The translation and cultural adaptation of the scale involved experts in gerontology and the French language and included back translation. The items were semantically evaluated and pretested in 10 older inpatients. The scale's psychometric properties were internally validated by using confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses. Reliability was assessed by examining the internal consistency of its items. RESULTS: Goodness-of-fit indices of the confirmatory factor analyses were not adequate, but reliability was acceptable (Cronbach's α = 0·80). Exploratory factor analysis of the French version provided results close to those described for the English version, with three similar subscales (physical and emotional readiness, coping with medical treatment and personal care), whereas the initially described Expected Support subscale was not identified in the French version. CONCLUSION: The Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale - French version appears to be partially consistent with its original English version, but requires additional adaptation to fully take into account the Swiss context and culture to achieve its original aim. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Assessing patient readiness for hospital discharge before leaving hospital could help nurses to improve the discharge planning process and achieve better patient preparedness and care coordination.

Prototype of a web-based participative decision support platform in natural hazards and risk management

This paper presents the current state and development of a prototype web-GIS (Geographic Information System) decision support platform intended for application in natural hazards and risk management, mainly for floods and landslides. This web platform uses open-source geospatial software and technologies, particularly the Boundless (formerly OpenGeo) framework and its client side software development kit (SDK). The main purpose of the platform is to assist the experts and stakeholders in the decision-making process for evaluation and selection of different risk management strategies through an interactive participation approach, integrating web-GIS interface with decision support tool based on a compromise programming approach. The access rights and functionality of the platform are varied depending on the roles and responsibilities of stakeholders in managing the risk. The application of the prototype platform is demonstrated based on an example case study site: Malborghetto Valbruna municipality of North-Eastern Italy where flash floods and landslides are frequent with major events having occurred in 2003. The preliminary feedback collected from the stakeholders in the region is discussed to understand the perspectives of stakeholders on the proposed prototype platform.

Evaluation of a revision of the BSPcast decision support system for control of brown spot of pear

Control of brown spot of pear requires fungicide treatments of pear trees during the growing season. Scheduling fungicide sprays with the Brown spot of pear forecasting system (BSPcast) provides significantfungicide savings but does not increase the efficacy of disease control. Modifications in BSPcast wereintroduced in order to increase system performance. The changes consisted of: (1) the use of a daily infectionrisk (Rm≥0.2) instead of the 3-day cumulative risk (CR≥0.4) to guide the fungicide scheduling, and (2) theinclusion of the effect of relative humidity during interrupted wetness periods. Trials were performed during2 years in an experimental pear orchard in Spain. The modifications introduced did not result in increaseddisease control efficacy, compared with the original BSPcast system. In one year, no reduction in the numberof fungicide applications was obtained using the modified BSPcast system in comparison to the original system, but in the second year the number of treatments was reduced from 15 to 13. The original BSPcast model overestimated the daily infection risk in 6.5% of days with wetness periods with low relative humidity during the wetness interruption, and in these cases the modified version was more adequate

High Prevalence of Signs of Renal Damage Despite Normal Renal Function in a Cohort of HIV-Infected Patients: Evaluation of Associated Factors

Renal disorders are an emerging problem in HIV-infected patients. We performed a cross-sectional study of the first 1000 HIV-infected patients attended at our HIV unit who agreed to participate. We determined the frequency of renal alterations and its related risk factors. Summary statistics and logistic regression were applied. The study sample comprised 970 patients with complete data. Most were white (94%) and men (76%). Median (IQR) age was 48 (42–53) years. Hypertension was diagnosed in 19%, dyslipidemia in 27%, and diabetes mellitus in 3%. According to the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD EPI) equation, 29 patients (3%) had an eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m2; 18 of them (62%) presented altered albumin/creatinine and protein/creatinine (UPC or UAC) ratios. Of the patients with eGFR> 60mL/min, it was present in 293 (30%), 38 of whom (7.1%) had UPC> 300mg/g. Increased risk of renal abnormalities was correlated with hypertension (OR, 1.821 [95%CI, 1.292;2.564]; p = 0.001), age (OR, 1.015 [95%CI, 1.001;1.030], per one year; p = 0.040), and use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) plus protease inhibitor (PI), (OR, 1.401 [95%CI, 1.078;1.821]; p = 0.012). Current CD4 cell count was a protective factor (OR, 0.9995 [95%CI, 0.9991;0.9999], per one cell; p = 0.035). A considerable proportion of patients presented altered UPC or UAC ratios, despite having an eGFR > 60mL/min. CD4 cell count was a protective factor; age, hypertension, and use of TDF plus PIs were risk factors for renal abnormalities. Based on our results, screen of renal abnormalities should be considered in all HIV-infected patients to detect these alterations early.

Use of the nutritional risk score by surgeons and nutritionists.

BACKGROUND: The Nutritional Risk Score (NRS) is a validated tool to identify patients who should benefit of nutritional interventions. Nutritional screening however has not yet been widely adopted by surgeons. Furthermore, the question about reliability of nutritional assessment performed by surgeons is still unanswered. METHODS: Data was obtained from a recent randomised trial including 146 patients with an NRS ≥3 as assessed by the surgeons. Additional detailed nutritional assessment was performed for all patients by nutritional specialists and entered prospectively in a dedicated database. In this retrospective, surgeons' scoring of NRS and its components was compared to the assessment by nutritionists (considered as gold standard). RESULTS: Prospective NRS scores by surgeons and nutritionists were available for 141 patients (97%). Surgeons calculated a NRS of 7, 6, 5, 4 and 3 in 2, 8, 38, 21 and 72 patients respectively. Nutritionists calculated a NRS of 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 in 8, 26, 47, 57, 3 patients, respectively. Surgeons' assessment was entirely correct in 56 patients (40%), while at least the final score was consistent in 63 patients (45%). Surgeons overrated the NRS in 21% of patients and underestimated the score in 29%. Evaluation of the nutritional status showed most of the discrepancies (54%). CONCLUSION: Surgeon's assessment of nutritional status is modest at best. Close collaboration with nutritional specialists should be recommended in order to avoid misdiagnosis and under-treatment of patients at nutritional risk.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Microcalcification evaluation in computer assisted diagnosis for digital mammography

In order to develop applications for z;isual interpretation of medical images, the early detection and evaluation of microcalcifications in digital mammograms is verg important since their presence is oftenassociated with a high incidence of breast cancers. Accurate classification into benign and malignant groups would help improve diagnostic sensitivity as well as reduce the number of unnecessa y biopsies. The challenge here is the selection of the useful features to distinguish benign from malignant micro calcifications. Our purpose in this work is to analyse a microcalcification evaluation method based on a set of shapebased features extracted from the digitised mammography. The segmentation of the microcalcificationsis performed using a fixed-tolerance region growing method to extract boundaries of calcifications with manually selected seed pixels. Taking into account that shapes and sizes of clustered microcalcificationshave been associated with a high risk of carcinoma based on digerent subjective measures, such as whether or not the calcifications are irregular, linear, vermiform, branched, rounded or ring like, our efforts were addressed to obtain a feature set related to the shape. The identification of the pammeters concerning the malignant character of the microcalcifications was performed on a set of 146 mammograms with their real diagnosis known in advance from biopsies. This allowed identifying the following shape-based parameters as the relevant ones: Number of clusters, Number of holes, Area, Feret elongation, Roughness, and Elongation. Further experiments on a set of 70 new mammogmms showed that the performance of the classification scheme is close to the mean performance of three expert radiologists, which allows to consider the proposed method for assisting the diagnosis and encourages to continue the investigation in the senseof adding new features not only related to the shape

Transforming Maritime Safety Culture. Evaluation of the impacts of the ISM Code on maritime safety culture in Finland

The purpose of the METKU Project (Development of Maritime Safety Culture) is to study how the ISM Code has influenced the safety culture in the maritime industry. This literature review is written as a part of the Work Package 2 which is conducted by the University of Turku, Centre for Maritime Studies. The maritime traffic is rapidly growing in the Baltic Sea which leads to a growing risk of maritime accidents. Particularly in the Gulf of Finland, the high volume of traffic causes a high risk of maritime accidents. The growing risks give us good reasons for implementing the research project concerning maritime safety and the effectiveness of the safety measures, such as the safety management systems. In order to reduce maritime safety risks, the safety management systems should be further developed. The METKU Project has been launched to examine the improvements which can be done to the safety management systems. Human errors are considered as the most important reason for maritime accidents. The international safety management code (the ISM Code) has been established to cut down the occurrence of human errors by creating a safety-oriented organizational culture for the maritime industry. The ISM Code requires that a company should provide safe practices in ship operation and a safe working environment and establish safeguards against all identified risk. The fundamental idea of the ISM Code is that companies should continuously improve safety. The commitment of the top management is essential for implementing a safety-oriented culture in a company. The ISM Code has brought a significant contribution to the progress of maritime safety in recent years. Shipping companies and ships’ crews are more environmentally friendly and more safety-oriented than 12 years ago. This has been showed by several studies which have been analysed for this literature research. Nevertheless, the direct effect and influence of the ISM Code on maritime safety could not be isolated very well. No quantitative measurement (statistics/hard data) could be found in order to present the impacts of the ISM Code on maritime safety. In this study it has been discovered that safety culture has emerged and it is developing in the maritime industry. Even though the roots of the safety culture have been established there are still serious barriers to the breakthrough of the safety management. These barriers could be envisaged as cultural factors preventing the safety process. Even though the ISM Code has been effective over a decade, the old-established behaviour which is based on the old day’s maritime culture still occurs. In the next phase of this research project, these cultural factors shall be analysed in regard to the present safety culture of the maritime industry in Finland.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part II: risk analysis

Techniques of evaluation of risks coming from inherent uncertainties to the agricultural activity should accompany planning studies. The risk analysis should be carried out by risk simulation using techniques as the Monte Carlo method. This study was carried out to develop a computer program so-called P-RISCO for the application of risky simulations on linear programming models, to apply to a case study, as well to test the results comparatively to the @RISK program. In the risk analysis it was observed that the average of the output variable total net present value, U, was considerably lower than the maximum U value obtained from the linear programming model. It was also verified that the enterprise will be front to expressive risk of shortage of water in the month of April, what doesn't happen for the cropping pattern obtained by the minimization of the irrigation requirement in the months of April in the four years. The scenario analysis indicated that the sale price of the passion fruit crop exercises expressive influence on the financial performance of the enterprise. In the comparative analysis it was verified the equivalence of P-RISCO and @RISK programs in the execution of the risk simulation for the considered scenario.

Evaluation of common mental disorders in women with polycystic ovary syndrome and its relationship with body mass index

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prevalence of common mental disorders in women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome as compared with paired controls without this syndrome. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with a Control Group examining women between the ages of 18 and 30 who did not use antidepressants and who sought the Gynecology Service of the researched sites. For every woman diagnosed with the polycystic ovary syndrome, another with the same age, educational status and presence or absence of sexual partners was sought without this diagnosis. In total, 166 patients agreed to participate, consisting of 95 diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome and 71 in the Control Group. The diagnosis of polycystic ovary syndrome was made by the presence of two from three criteria: oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea, clinical or biochemical hyperandrogenism and polycystic ovaries on transvaginal ultrasound, following exclusion of patients with Cushing's syndrome, congenital adrenal hyperplasia, and androgen-secreting tumors. Weight and height were measured to calculate the body mass index. The Self-Reporting Questionnaire, which evaluated 20 items, was used as an indicator of common mental disorders. A χ² analysis stratified by the category of body mass index was used to compare the prevalence of common mental disorders, between the groups of women with and without the polycystic ovary syndrome. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in age, education, presence of sexual partners, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, use of psychiatric medication, and search for consultation in mental health between the studied groups. The prevalence of obese women with indications of common mental disorders was significantly higher in women with polycystic ovary syndrome than in the Control Group. In the group with healthy body mass index, the incidence of common mental disorders was statistically significant different between women with polycystic ovary syndrome and normal controls (p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Women with diagnosis of this disease have an almost three-fold increased likelihood of common mental disorders as compared with those without polycystic ovary syndrome. Although obesity is often observed in polycystic ovary syndrome, even women with a healthy body mass index have an increased risk of psychiatric comorbidity.

Metabolic evaluation of dairy cows submitted to three different strategies to decrease the effects of negative energy balance in early postpartum

In early lactation dairy cattle suffer metabolic alterations caused by negative energy balance, which predisposes to fatty liver and ketosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the metabolic condition of high yielding dairy cows subjected to three treatments for preventing severe lipomobilization and ketosis in early lactation. Fifty four multiparous Holstein cows yielding >30 L/day were divided into four groups: control (CN= no treatment), glucose precursor (PG= propylene-glycol), hepatic protector (Mp= Mercepton®), and energy supplement with salts of linolenic and linoleic faty acids (Mg-E= Megalac-E®). Treatments were administrated randomly at moment of calving until 8 weeks postpartum. Blood samples were collected on days 1, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42 and 49 postpartum. Body condition score (BCS) was evaluated at the same periods and milk yield was recorded at 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th weeks of lactation. Concentrations of non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), albumin, AST, ß-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), cholesterol, glucose, total protein, urea and triglycerides were analyzed in blood samples. Cut-off points for subclinical ketosis were defined when BHBA >1.4 mmol/L and NEFA >0.7 mmol/L. General occurrence of subclinical ketosis was 24% during the period. An ascendant curve of cholesterol and glucose was observed from the 1st to the 8th week of lactation, while any tendency was observed with BHBA and NEFA, although differences among treatments were detected (p<0.05). BCS decreased from a mean of 3.85 at 1st week to 2.53 at 8th week of lactation (p=0.001). Milk yield was higher in the Mg-E group compared with the other treatment groups (p<0.05) Compared with the CN group, the treatments with Mp and PG did not show significant differences in blood biochemistry and milk yield. Cows receiving PG and Mg-E showed higher values of BHBA and NEFA (P<0.05), indicating accentuated lipomobilization. Supplementation with Mg-E also resulted in significant higher concentrations of cholesterol, BHBA, urea, AST and lower values of glycemia. This performance may be explained by the highest milk yield observed with this treatment. Treatments with PG and Mp did not improve milk yield, compared with control cows, but did not show metabolic evidence of ketosis, fat mobilization or fatty liver. These results suggest that treatment with Mg-E improves milk production but induces a higher negative energy balance leading to moderated lipomobilization and ketone bodies production, increasing the risk of fatty liver.