Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Jurassic micropaleontology of the Grand Banks

Jurassic foraminifera in the marine deposits (up to 3km thick) of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland define eight biostratigraphic zones of Pliensbachian through Tithonian age. Jurassic marine deposition (~4cm/10k.y) kept pace with subsidence resulting in a relatively continuous, shallow marine sedimentation pattern. Central Grand Banks subsidence ceased in Late Jurassic time and the area became emergent with erosion taking place until Albian time. Grand Banks Jurassic foraminiferal assemblages are of a distinctly Old World affinity reflecting the contracted early Atlantic paleogeography. Compositional differences with Portuguese Middle-Late Jurassic microfauna are probably related to differences in depositional history of the Portuguese and Grand Banks Basin.

Main features of the labour policy in Portugal

In this working paper is presented information on the Portuguese labour market developed with the support of the European project WORKS-“Work organisation and restructuring in the knowledge society”. Is still a on the process article and thus commentaries are welcome. The structure is based on the following topics: a) The employment policy (Time regimes - time use, flexibility, part-time work, work-life balance -, and the work contracts regimes – wages, contract types, diversity); b) Education and training (skilling outcomes, rules on retraining and further training, employability schemes, transferability of skills); c) Equal opportunities (relevance of equal opportunity regulation for restructuring outcomes, the role of gender and age regulation); d) Restructuring effects (policy on transfer of personnel, policy on redundancies, and participation or voice in restructuring).

Flexicurity: Core Features of Portuguese Debate

According to the OECD, Portugal is an example of a country with a very high rigidity in the labour market. At the same time, Portugal is an example of a country with a high percentage or workers with short-term contracts. These conditions have led to an ongoing public discussion concerning the nee to introduce more flexibility while maintaining work security. In this paper we analyze the current situation concerning security and rigidity in the labour market and discuss the flexicurity in the Portuguese context.

The transformation of work? A quantitative evaluation of changes in work in Portugal

This report is made for the Work Package 15 of WORKS project and tries to develop more information on the Portuguese situation in the work structures changes in the recent years. It starts with an analysis of socio- economical indicators (Macro economical indicators, Employment indicators, Consumption, Technology at the workplace, Productivity), and then approaches the situation in terms of work flexibility in its dimensions of time use and New forms of work organisation. It traces employment in business functions with a sectoral and occupational approach, and analyses the occupational change in South Europe with particular relevance to Portugal (skill utilisation and job satisfaction, occupational and industrial mobility, quantitative evaluation of the shape of employment in Europe. Finaly are analysed the globalisation indicators.

Action, reaction and protest by publishers in 1960s Portugal: books and other publications in the Catholic opposition

The authoritarian regime of the Portuguese Estado Novo (New State), the longest dictatorship in twentieth-century Western Europe, suffered one of its most serious threats during the late 1950s and the whole of the following decade. An array of events and dynamics of opposition to the regime and condemnation of the political and social situation in Portugal appeared at that time. One of the core groups that displayed their dissidence in the 1960s, with the awakening of their critical conscience, originated in Catholic sectors that rallied the laity and the clergy to express their disagreement or even break with the government of Salazar (and, later, Marcelo Caetano). This article aims to establish the role of print culture and, in particular, publishing in the opposition’s mobilisation of Catholics who criticised the Estado Novo. It will also closely examine the contribution of certain publishers to the formulation of the terms of this mobilisation, in publishing new authors and topics and creating new printed forums (e.g. periodicals) for discussion and reflection. The most detailed case will be that of the publishing house Livraria Moraes Editora, under the command of the publisher António Alçada Baptista.

Market power analysis in the Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations model

In the last years the electricity industry has faced a restructuring process. Among the aims of this process was the increase in competition, especially in the generation activity where firms would have an incentive to become more efficient. However, the competitive behavior of generating firms might jeopardize the expected benefits of the electricity industry liberalization. The present paper proposes a conjectural variations model to study the competitive behavior of generating firms acting in liberalized electricity markets. The model computes a parameter that represents the degree of competition of each generating firm in each trading period. In this regard, the proposed model provides a powerful methodology for regulatory and competition authorities to monitor the competitive behavior of generating firms. As an application of the model, a study of the day-ahead Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) was conducted to analyze the impact of the integration of the Portuguese and Spanish electricity markets on the behavior of generating firms taking into account the hourly results of the months of June and July of 2007. The advantages of the proposed methodology over other methodologies used to address market power, namely Residual Supply index and Lerner index are highlighted. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An SEM investigation of the pozzolanic activity of a waste catalyst oil refinery

The most active phase of the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) catalyst, used in oil refinery, is zeolite-Y which is an aluminosilicate with a high internal and external surface area responsible for its high reactivity. Waste FCC catalyst is potentially able to be reused in cement-based materials - as an additive - undergoing a pozzolanic reaction with calcium hydroxide (Ca(OH)2) formed during cement hydration [1-3]. This reaction produces additional strength-providing reaction products i.e., calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) and hydrous calcium aluminates (C-A-H) which exact chemical formula and structure are still unknown. Partial replacement of cement by waste FCC catalyst has two key advantages: (1) lowering of cement production with the associated pollution reduction as this industry represents one of the largest sources of man-made CO2 emissions, and (2) improving the mechanical properties and durability of cement-based materials. Despite these advantages, there is a lack of fundamental knowledge on pozzolanic reaction mechanisms as well as spatial distribution of porosity and solid phases interactions at the microstructural level and consequently their relationship with macroscopical engineering properties of catalyst/cement blends. Within this scope, backscattered electron (BSE) images acquired in a scanning electron microscope (SEM) equipped with Energy-Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) and by X-ray diffraction were used to investigate chemical composition of hydration products and to analyse spatial information of the microstructure of waste FCC catalyst blended cement mortars. For this purpose mortars with different levels of cement substitution by waste catalyst as well as with different hydration ages, were prepared. The waste FCC catalyst used is produced by the Portuguese refinery company Petrogal S.A.

C3G - A portuguese collaboration for geology, geodesy and geophysics

Portugal joined the effort to create the EPOS infrastructure in 2008, and it became immediately apparent that a national network of Earth Sciences infrastructures was required to participate in the initiative. At that time, FCT was promoting the creation of a national infrastructure called RNG - Rede Nacional de Geofísica (National Geophysics Network). A memorandum of understanding had been agreed upon, and it seemed therefore straightforward to use RNG (enlarged to include relevant participants that were not RNG members) as the Portuguese partner to EPOS-PP. However, at the time of signature of the EPOS-PP contract with the European Commission (November 2010), RNG had not gained formal identity yet, and IST (one of the participants) signed the grant agreement on behalf of the Portuguese consortium. During 2011 no progress was made towards the formal creation of RNG, and the composition of the network – based on proposals submitted to a call issued in 2002 – had by then become obsolete. On February 2012, the EPOS national contact point was mandated by the representatives of the participating national infrastructures to request from FCT the recognition of a new consortium - C3G, Collaboratory for Geology, Geodesy and Geophysics - as the Portuguese partner to EPOS-PP. This request was supported by formal letters from the following institutions: ‐ LNEG. Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia (National Geological Survey); ‐ IGP ‐ Instituto Geográfico Português (National Geographic Institute); ‐ IDL, Instituto Dom Luiz – Laboratório Associado ‐ CGE, Centro de Geofísica de Évora; ‐ FCTUC, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade de Coimbra; ‐ Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa; ‐ Instituto Superior Técnico; ‐ Universidade da Beira Interior. While Instituto de Meteorologia (Meteorological Institute, in charge of the national seismographic network) actively supports the national participation in EPOS, a letter of support was not feasible in view of the organic changes underway at the time. C3G aims at the integration and coordination, at national level, of existing Earth Sciences infrastructures, namely: ‐ seismic and geodetic networks (IM, IST, IDL, CGE); ‐ rock physics laboratories (ISEL); ‐ geophysical laboratories dedicated to natural resources and environmental studies; ‐ geological and geophysical data repositories; ‐ facilities for data storage and computing resources. The C3G - Collaboratory for Geology, Geodesy and Geophysics will be coordinated by Universidade da Beira Interior, whose Department of Informatics will host the C3G infrastructure.

Soil erosion after forest fires: evaluation of mitigation measures applied to drainage channels in the northwest of Portugal

The development and implementation of measures which promote the reduction of the impacts of forest fires on soils is imperative and should be part of any strategy for forest and soil preservation and recovery, especially considering the actual scenario of continuous growth in the number of fires and burnt area. Consequently, with the dendrocaustologic reality that has characterized the Portuguese mainland in recent decades, a research project promoted by the Center for the Study of Geography and Spatial Planning (CEGOT) was implemented with the objective of applying several erosion mitigation measures in a burned area of the Peneda-Geres National Park in NW Portugal. This paper therefore seeks to present the measures applied in the study area within the project Soil Protec, relating to triggered channel processes and the results of preliminary observations concerning the evaluation of the effectiveness of erosion mitigation measures implemented, as well as their cost/benefit ratio.

Experimental and numerical study on the evaluation of ventilation efficiency

Buildings account for 40% of total energy consumption in the European Union. The reduction of energy consumption in the buildings sector constitute an important measure needed to reduce the Union's energy dependency and greenhouse gas emissions. The Portuguese legislation incorporate this principles in order to regulate the energy performance of buildings. This energy performance should be accompanied by good conditions for the occupants of the buildings. According to EN 15251 (2007) the four factors that affect the occupant comfort in the buildings are: Indoor Air Quality (IAQ), thermal comfort, acoustics and lighting. Ventilation directly affects all except the lighting, so it is crucial to understand the performance of it. The ventilation efficiency concept therefore earn significance, because it is an attempt to quantify a parameter that can easily distinguish the different options for air diffusion in the spaces. The two indicators most internationally accepted are the Air Change Efficiency (ACE) and the Contaminant Removal Effectiveness (CRE). Nowadays with the developed of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) the behaviour of ventilation can be more easily predicted. Thirteen strategies of air diffusion were measured in a test chamber through the application of the tracer gas method, with the objective to validate the calculation by the MicroFlo module of the IES-VE software for this two indicators. The main conclusions from this work were: that the values of the numerical simulations are in agreement with experimental measurements; the value of the CRE is more dependent of the position of the contamination source, that the strategy used for the air diffusion; the ACE indicator is more appropriate for quantifying the quality of the air diffusion; the solutions to be adopted, to maximize the ventilation efficiency should be, the schemes that operate with low speeds of supply air and small differences between supply air temperature and the room temperature.

The role of implicit contracts: Building public works in the 1840s in Portugal

Business History, Vol 50 No 2, p147-162

The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on international stock markets : contagion and long memory

Nesta tese estudamos os efeitos de contágio financeiro e de memória longa causados pelas crises financeiras de 2008 e 2010 em alguns mercados acionistas internacionais. A tese é composta por três ensaios interligados. No Ensaio 1, recorremos à teoria das cópulas para testar a existência de contágio e revelar os canais “investor induced” de transmissão da crise de 2008 aos mercados da Bélgica, França, Holanda e Portugal (grupo NYSE Euronext). Concluímos que existe contágio nestes mercados, que o canal “portfolio rebalancing” é o mecanismo mais importante de transmissão da crise, e que o fenómeno “flight to quality” está presente nos mercados. No Ensaio 2, usando novamente modelos de cópulas, avaliamos os efeitos de contágio provocados pelo mercado acionista grego nos mercados do grupo NYSE Euronext, no contexto da crise de 2010. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que durante a crise de 2010 apenas o mercado português foi objeto de contágio; além disso, conclui-se que os efeitos de contágio provocados pela crise de 2008 são claramente superiores aos efeitos provocados pela crise de 2010. No Ensaio 3, abordamos o tema da memória longa através do estudo do expoente de Hurst dos mercados acionistas da Bélgica, E.U.A., França, Grécia, Holanda, Japão, Reino Unido e Portugal. Verificamos que as propriedades de memória longa dos mercados foram afetadas pelas crises, especialmente a de 2008 – que aumentou a memória longa dos mercados e tornou-os mais persistentes. Finalmente, usando cópulas mais uma vez, verificamos que as crises provocaram, em geral, um aumento na correlação entre os expoentes de Hurst locais dos mercados foco das crises (E.U.A. e Grécia) e os expoentes de Hurst locais dos outros mercados da amostra, sugerindo que o expoente de Hurst pode ser utilizado para detetar efeitos de contágio financeiro. Em síntese, os resultados desta tese sugerem que comparativamente com períodos de acalmia, os períodos de crises financeiras tendem a provocar ineficiência nos mercados acionistas e a conduzi-los na direção da persistência e do contágio financeiro.

Study on the changes of soil chemical characteristics as result of prescribed fire

Every year, particularly during the summer period, the Portuguese forests are devastated by forest fire that destroys their ecosystems. So in order to prevent these forest fires, public and private authorities frequently use methods for the reduction of combustible mass as the prescribed fire and the mechanical vegetation pruning. All of these methods of prevention of forest fires alter the vegetation layer and/or soil [1-2]. This work aimed the study of the variation of some chemical characteristics of soil that suffered prescribed fire. The studied an area was located in the Serra of Cabreira (Figure 1) with 54.6 ha. Twenty sampling points were randomly selected and samples were collected with a shovel before, just after the prescribed fire, and 125 and 196 days after that event. The parameters that were studied were: pH, soil moisture, organic matter and iron, magnesium and potassium total concentration. All the analysis followed International Standard Methodologies. This work allowed to conclude that: a) after the prescribed fire; i) the pH remained practically equal to the the initial value; ii) occurred a slight increase of the average of the organic matter contents and iron total contents; b) at the end of the sampling period compared to the initial values; i) the pH didn´t change significantly; ii) the average of the contents of organic matter decreased; and iii) the average of the total contents of Fe, Mg and K increased.