Magnitude and frequency: challenges for the assessment of vulnerability to geomorphic hazards

In natural hazard research, risk is defined as a function of (1) the probability of occurrence of a hazardous process, and (2) the assessment of the related extent of damage, defined by the value of elements at risk exposed and their physical vulnerability. Until now, various works have been undertaken to determine vulnerability values for objects exposed to geomorphic hazards such as mountain torrents. Yet, many studies only provide rough estimates for vulnerability values based on proxies for process intensities. However, the deduced vulnerability functions proposed in the literature show a wide range, in particular with respect to medium and high process magnitudes. In our study, we compare vulnerability functions for torrent processes derived from studies in test sites located in the Austrian Alps and in Taiwan. Based on this comparison we expose needs for future research in order to enhance mountain hazard risk management with a particular focus on the question of vulnerability on a catchment scale.

The spatial distribution of water in the inner coma of Comet 9P/Tempel 1: Comparison between models and observations

The near nucleus coma of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 has been simulated with the 3D Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code PDSC++ (Su, C.-C. [2013]. Parallel Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) Methods for Modeling Rarefied Gas Dynamics. PhD Thesis, National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan) and the derived column densities have been compared to observations of the water vapour distribution found by using infrared imaging spectrometer on the Deep Impact spacecraft (Feaga, L.M., A’Hearn, M.F., Sunshine, J.M., Groussin, O., Farnham, T.L. [2007]. Icarus 191(2), 134–145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2007.04.038). Modelled total production rates are also compared to various observations made at the time of the Deep Impact encounter. Three different models were tested. For all models, the shape model constructed from the Deep Impact observations by Thomas et al. (Thomas, P.C., Veverka, J., Belton, M.J.S., Hidy, A., A’Hearn, M.F., Farnham, T.L., et al. [2007]. Icarus, 187(1), 4–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2006.12.013) was used. Outgassing depending only on the cosine of the solar insolation angle on each shape model facet is shown to provide an unsatisfactory model. Models constructed on the basis of active areas suggested by Kossacki and Szutowicz (Kossacki, K., Szutowicz, S. [2008]. Icarus, 195(2), 705–724. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2007.12.014) are shown to be superior. The Kossacki and Szutowicz model, however, also shows deficits which we have sought to improve upon. For the best model we investigate the properties of the outflow.

Evaluation and Comparison of Anatomical Landmark Detection Methods for Cephalometric X-Ray Images: A Grand Challenge

Cephalometric analysis is an essential clinical and research tool in orthodontics for the orthodontic analysis and treatment planning. This paper presents the evaluation of the methods submitted to the Automatic Cephalometric X-Ray Landmark Detection Challenge, held at the IEEE International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging 2014 with an on-site competition. The challenge was set to explore and compare automatic landmark detection methods in application to cephalometric X-ray images. Methods were evaluated on a common database including cephalograms of 300 patients aged six to 60 years, collected from the Dental Department, Tri-Service General Hospital, Taiwan, and manually marked anatomical landmarks as the ground truth data, generated by two experienced medical doctors. Quantitative evaluation was performed to compare the results of a representative selection of current methods submitted to the challenge. Experimental results show that three methods are able to achieve detection rates greater than 80% using the 4 mm precision range, but only one method achieves a detection rate greater than 70% using the 2 mm precision range, which is the acceptable precision range in clinical practice. The study provides insights into the performance of different landmark detection approaches under real-world conditions and highlights achievements and limitations of current image analysis techniques.

A variationist approach to the examination of insertion and deletion of /h/ in Kosraean English

I report on language variation in the unresearched variety of English emerging on Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia. English is spoken as the inter-island lingua franca throughout Micronesia and has been the official language of FSM since gaining its independence in 1986, though still retaining close ties with the US through and economic “compact” agreement. I present here an analysis of a corpus of over 90 Kosraean English speakers, compiled during a three month fieldwork trip to the island in the Western Pacific. The 45 minute sociolinguistically sensitive recordings are drawn from a corpus of old and young, with varying levels of education and occupations, and off-island experiences. In the paper I analyse two variables. The first variable is the realisation of /h/, often subject to deletion in both L1 and L2 varieties of English. Such occurrences are commonly associated with Cockney English, but also found in Caribbean English and the postcolonial English of Australia. For example:  Male, 31: yeah I build their house their local huts and they pay me /h/ deletion is frequent in Kosraean English, but, perhaps expectedly, occurs slightly less among people with higher contact with American English, through having spent longer periods off island. The second feature under scrutiny is the variable epenthesis of [h] to provide a consonantal onset to vowel-initial syllables.  Male, 31: that guy is really hold now This practice is also found beyond Kosraean English. Previous studies find h-epenthesis arising in L1 varieties including Newfoundland and Tristan de Cunha English, while similar manifestations are identified in Francophone L2 learners of English. My variationist statistical analysis has shown [h] insertion:  to disproportionately occur intervocalically;  to be constrained by both speaker gender and age: older males are much more likely to epenthesis [h] in their speech;  to be more likely in the onset of stressed as opposed to unstressed syllables. In light of the findings of my analysis, I consider the relationship between h-deletion and h-epenthesis, the plausibility of hypercorrection as a motivation for the variation, and the potential influence of the substrate language, alongside sociolinguistic factors such as attitudes towards the US based on mobility. The analysis sheds light on the extent to which different varieties share this characteristic and the comparability of them in terms of linguistic constraints and attributes. Clarke, S. (2010). Newfoundland and Labrador English. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press Hackert, S. (2004). Urban Bahamian Creole: System and Variation. Varieties of English Around the World G32. Amsterdam: Benjamins Milroy, J. (1983). On the Sociolinguistic History of H-dropping in English in Current topics in English historical linguistics: Odense UP

Development and evaluation of a cervical cancer screening program for Chinese women

Despite of the proven efficacy of the Pap test, Asian populations still have low Pap screening compliance. The purpose of this dissertation was to investigate factors that influencing women's decision to obtain a Pap test, and to describe the development and evaluation of a cervical cancer educational program promoting the Pap screening behavior among women in Taiwan. ^ The first study examined factors associated with Pap screening compliance. Psychometric properties of measurement instruments were also assessed. The scale reliabilities were as the follows: Cronbach alpha 0.70 for knowledge scale, 0.88 for pros scale, 0.68 for cons scale, and 0.72 for perceived norms scale. Results from multiple logistic regression analysis, after adjusted for marital status, showed women who compliant to Pap screening guidelines had significantly higher knowledge, higher perceived benefits (pros), lower perceived barriers (cons), and higher perceived norms to receive a Pap test. ^ The second study described the development of a program called “Love yourself before you take care of your family”, designed to increase Pap screening behavior among women in Taiwan. The development of this program was guided by Intervention Mapping (IM), an innovative process of intervention design. The program used methods such as information transmission, modeling, persuasion, and facilitation. Strategies included direct mail campaigns, role model stories with women's testimonials, and phone intervention. ^ The third study examined the effectiveness of a randomized trial of the carefully-designed intervention (N = 424). Participants were female family members of inpatients admitted to one of the major teaching hospitals in Taiwan during August and September 1999. Women in the intervention group reported a higher rate of receiving a Pap test than women in the control group (50% versus 32%) after a three-month intervention (p = 0.002). Women in the intervention group showed increased knowledge (p = .016), perceived pros (p = 0.008), and susceptibility (p = .011) between baseline and follow-up. They also showed higher perceived pros of Pap tests than women in control group at follow-up (p = .031). This result suggested that program development based on theories and evidences could maximize the intervention impact for a specific target population. ^

Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

THE BACON CHOW STUDY: THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INFECTIOUS ILLNESS AND GROWTH OF INFANTS

Multiple dietary deficiencies and high rates of infectious illness are major health problems leading to malnutrition and limitation of growth of children in developing countries. Longitudinal studies which provide information on illness incidence and growth velocity are needed in order to untangle the complex interrelationship between nutrition, illness and growth. From 1967 to 1973, researchers led by Dr. Bacon Chow of the Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene undertook a quasi-experimental prospective study in Suilin Township, Taiwan to determine the effects of a nutritional supplement to the diets of pregnant and lactating women on the growth, development and resistance to disease of their offspring. This dissertation presents results from the analysis of infant morbidity and postnatal growth.^ Maternal nutritional supplementation has no apparent effect on the postnatal growth or morbidity of infants. Significant sex differences exist in growth response to illness and in illness susceptibility. Male infants have more diarrhea and upper respiratory illness. Respiratory illness is positively associated with growth rate in weight in the first semester of life. Diarrhea is significantly negatively associated with growth in length in the second semester. Small-for-date infants are more susceptible to illness in general and have a different pattern of growth response than large-for-date infants.^ Principal components analysis of illness data is shown to be an effective technique for making more precise use of ambiguous morbidity data. Multiple regression with component scores is an accurate method for estimating variance in growth rate predicted by indepenent illness variables. A model is advanced in which initial postnatal growth rate determines subsequent susceptibility to nutritional stress and infection. Initial growth rate is a function of prenatal nutrition, but is not significantly affected by maternal supplementation during gestation or lactation. Critical evaluation is made of nutritional supplementation programs which do not afford disease control.^

Geochemical data and mineralogical properties of bulk sediment composition of ODP Hole 195-1202B

During Leg 195 of the Ocean Drilling Program, Site 1202 was drilled in the subtropical northwestern Pacific Ocean beneath the Kuroshio (Black Current) between northern Taiwan and the Ryukyu Island Arc on the northern flank of the I-Lan Ridge at 1274 m water depth. The upper 110 m of the Site 1202 section, composed of dark grey calcareous silty clay, provide an expanded record of environmental changes during the last 28 kyr. The sediments were deposited at high sedimentation rates between 3.0 and 5.0 m/kyr and peak values of 9.0 m/kyr between 15.1 and 11.2 ka BP. Variations in the modes and sources of detrital sediment input, as inferred from sediment granulometry, mineralogy, and elemental XRF-scanner data, reflect changes in environmental boundary conditions related to sea-level changes, Kuroshio variability, and the climate-driven modes of fluvial runoff. The provenance data point to increased sediment supply from northwestern Taiwan between 28 and 19.5 ka BP and from East China sources between 19.5 and 11.2 ka BP. The change in provenance at 19.5 ka BP reflects increased fluvial runoff from the Yangtze River and strong sediment reworking from the East China Sea shelf in the course of increased humidity and postglacial sea-level rise, particularly after 15.1 ka BP. The Holocene was dominated by sediments that originated from rivers in northeastern Taiwan. For the pre-Holocene period prior to 11.2 ka BP, low portions of sortable silt (63-10 ?m) show that the Kuroshio did not enter the Okinawa Trough, because of low sea-level. In turn, high proportions of sortable silt and sediment provenance from northeastern Taiwan point to strong ocean circulation under the direct and persistent influence of the Kuroshio during the Holocene. The reentrance of the Kuroshio to the Okinawa Trough was heralded by two pulses in relative current strengthening at 11.2 and 9.5 ka BP, as documented by stepwise increases in sortable silt in the lower Holocene section. From a global perspective, environmental changes in the southern Okinawa Trough show affinities to climate change in the western Pacific warm pool with little influence of climate teleconnections from the North Atlantic realm, otherwise seen in many other marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate records from southeastern Asia.

Fábrica de sueños

Es licenciado en Artes Plásticas de la Universidad Nacional de Cuyo Mendoza- Argentina Ha recibido 24 premios en su actividad como grabador, dibujante y pintor La pintura de Thormann puede enrolarse dentro de la corriente surrealista con un marcado expresionismo dado por líneas, texturas y colores que le otorgan fuertes y personales caracteristicas Es miembro de jurados de salones provinciales y nacionales Es profesor titular de la cátedra de dibujo en la carrera de diseño de la Universidad Champagnat y docente del colegio San Jorge, Mendoza Argentina Diseñó y realizó las cajas lumínicas de la fiesta nacional de la vendimia 2004 Su actividad incluye exposiciones, cursos y trabajos docentes en distintas ciudades de Latinoamérica. Sus obras se exponen y forman parte de colecciones privadas y públicas en Chile, Canada, Taiwán, Mexico, España, Inglaterra y USA Actualmente reside en Mendoza, Argentina

Benthic and planktonic foraminifera of sediment core GIK17957-2

A detailed age model for core 17957-2 of the southern South China Sea was developed based on delta18O, coarse fraction, magnetostratigraphy, and biostratigraphy for the last 1500 kyr. The delta18O record has clear ~100-kyr cycles after the Mid-Pleistocene Revolution (MPR) at the entrance of marine isotopic stage (MIS) 22. Planktonic foraminifera responded to the MPR immediately, showing the increased sea surface temperature (SST) and dissolution after the MPR. Benthic foraminifera did not respond to it until the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary. Since the MPR, the depth of thermocline gradually became shallower until MISs 6-5. This major change within MISs 6-5 was also reflected in the decreased SSTs and increased productivity and Deep Water Mass. Thus two major Pleistocene paleoceanographic changes were found: One was around the MPR; the other occurred within MISs 6-5, which speculatively might be ascribed to the reorganization of surface and deep circulation, possibly induced by tectonic forces.