Social cleavages and electoral support in Turkey -- toward convergence?

Studies on Western democracies have shown that deep-seated social cleavages stabilize the electoral behavior and thus reduce electoral volatility. But how do social cleavages affect a party system that is undergoing democratic consolidation, such as in Turkey? In this study, investigations were carried out on long- and short-term relationships between social cleavages (religiosity, ethnicity, and sectarism) and electoral volatility in Turkey during the 1961-2002 period. Cross-sectional multiple regressions were applied to electoral and demographic data at the provincial level. The results showed that in the long-term, social cleavages on the whole have increased volatility rather than reduced it. The cleavage-volatility relationship, however, has changed over time. Repeated elections have mitigated the volatile effect of social cleavages on the voting behavior, as political parties have become more representative of the existent social cleavages.

Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of viruses are differentially affected by parasitoids depending on the mode of transmission by their insect vectors.

Relationships between agents in multitrophic systems are complex and very specific. Insect-transmitted plant viruses are completely dependent on the behaviour and distribution patterns of their vectors. The presence of natural enemies may directly affect aphid behaviour and spread of plant viruses, as the escape response of aphids might cause a potential risk for virus dispersal. The spatio-temporal dynamics of Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) and Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus (CABYV), transmitted by Aphis gossypii in a non-persistent and persistent manner, respectively, were evaluated at short and long term in the presence and absence of the aphid parasitoid, Aphidius colemani. SADIE methodology was used to study the distribution patterns of both the virus and its vector, and their degree of association. Results suggested that parasitoids promoted aphid dispersion at short term, which enhanced CMV spread, though consequences of parasitism suggest potential benefits for disease control at long term. Furthermore, A. colemani significantly limited the spread and incidence of the persistent virus CABYV at long term. The impact of aphid parasitoids on the dispersal of plant viruses with different transmission modes is discussed.

Design energy spectra for Turkey

This work proposes design energy spectra in terms of velocity, derived through linear dynamic analyses on Turkish registers and intended for regions with design peak acceleration 0.3 g or higher. In the long and mid period ranges the analyses are linear, taking profit of the rather insensitivity of the spectra to the structural parameters other than the fundamental period; in the short period range, the spectra are more sensitive to the structural parameters and nonlinear analyses would be required. The selected records are classified in eight groups according to the design input acceleration, the soil type, the earthquake magnitude and the near-source effects. For each of these groups, median and characteristic spectra are proposed (50% and 95% percentiles). These spectra have an initial linear growing branch in the short period range, a horizontal branch in the mid period range and a descending branch in the long period range.

Control of insect vectors and plant viruses in protected crops by novel pyrethroid-treated nets

Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLITNs) constitute a novel alternative that combines physical and chemical tactics to prevent insect access and the spread of insect-transmitted plant viruses in protected enclosures. This approach is based on a slow-release insecticide-treated net with large hole sizes that allow improved ventilation of greenhouses. The efficacy of a wide range of LLITNs was tested under laboratory conditions against Myzus persicae, Aphis gossypii and Bemisia tabaci. Two nets were selected for field tests under a high insect infestation pressure in the presence of plants infected with Cucumber mosaic virus and Cucurbit aphid-borne yellows virus. The efficacy of Aphidius colemani, a parasitoid commonly used for biological control of aphids, was studied in parallel field experiments.