Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Desenvolvimento de um elemento combustível instrumentado para o reator de pesquisa IEA-R1

Após o aumento de potência do reator IEA-R1 de 2 MW para 5 MW observou-se um aumento da taxa de corrosão nas placas laterais de alguns elementos combustíveis e algumas dúvidas surgiram com relação ao valor de vazão utilizada nas análises termo-hidráulicas. A fim de esclarecer e medir a distribuição de vazão real pelos elementos combustíveis que compõe o núcleo do reator IEA-R1, um elemento combustível protótipo, sem material nuclear, chamado DMPV-01 (Dispositivo para Medida de Pressão e Vazão), em escala real, foi projetado e construído em alumínio. A vazão no canal entre dois elementos combustíveis é muito difícil de estimar ou ser medida. Esta vazão é muito importante no processo de resfriamento das placas laterais. Este trabalho apresenta a concepção e construção de um elemento combustível instrumentado para medir a temperatura real nestas placas laterais para melhor avaliar as condições de resfriamento do combustível. Quatorze termopares foram instalados neste elemento combustível instrumentado. Quatro termopares em cada canal lateral e quatro no canal central, além de um termopar no bocal de entrada e outro no bocal de saída do elemento. Existem três termopares para medida de temperatura do revestimento e um para a temperatura do fluido em cada canal. Três séries de experimentos, para três configurações distintas, foram realizadas com o elemento combustível instrumentado. Em dois experimentos uma caixa de alumínio foi instalada ao redor do núcleo para reduzir o escoamento transverso entre os elementos combustíveis e medir o impacto na temperatura das placas externas. Dada a tamanha quantidade de informações obtidas e sua utilidade no projeto, melhoria e capacitação na construção, montagem e fabricação de elementos combustíveis instrumentados, este projeto constitui um importante marco no estudo de núcleos de reatores de pesquisa. As soluções propostas podem ser amplamente utilizadas para outros reatores de pesquisa.

(Table 1) Carbon and isotopic composition of organic carbon in sediments from DSDP Leg 56 Holes

We have analyzed inorganic and organic carbons and determined the isotopic composition of both sedimentary organic carbon and inorganic carbon in carbonates contained in sediments recovered from Holes 434, 434A, 434B, 435, and 435A in the landward slope of Japan and from Hole 436 in the oceanic slope of the Japan Trench. Both inorganic and organic carbons were assayed at the P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, in the same sample, using the Knopp technique and measuring evolved CO2 gravimetrically. Each sample was analyzed twice in parallel. Measurements were of a ±0.05 per cent accuracy and a probability level of 0.95. Carbon isotopic analysis was carried out on a MI-1305 mass spectrometer at the I. M. Gubkin Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry and the results presented as dC13 values related to the PDB standard. The procedure for preparing samples for organic carbon isotopic analysis involved (1) drying damp sediments at 60°C; (2) treating samples, while heating, with 10 N HCl to remove carbonate carbon; and (3) evaporating surplus HCl at 60°C. The organic substance was turned to CO2 by oxidizing it in an oxygen atmosphere. To prepare samples for inorganic carbon isotopic analysis we decomposed the carbonates with orthophosphoric acid and refined the gas evolved. The dC13 measurements, including a full cycle of sample preparation, were of a ±0.5 per cent accuracy and a probability level of 0.95.

(Table 1) Concentration and geological parameters of n-alkanes and n-alkenes in surface sediments from the Gulf of Gabes, Tunisia

Abstract Hydrocarbons in surface sediments were studied quantitatively and qualitatively in 18 stations along the coastline of Gabes Gulf in Tunisia. The results show that the total hydrocarbon levels vary along a wide range from 90 to 1,800 ppm. The GC-MS profiles of aliphatic hydrocarbons vary according to the stations and show that the hydrocarbons were derived from various sources. A special feature prevalent in several stations was identified: aliphatic hydrocarbons with distinctive chemical features. This includes a high abundance of even-numbered n-alkanes (n-C14 - n-C26, maximizing at n-C18, n-C20 and n-C22) and n-alk-1-enes (n-C14:1 - n-C24:1, maximizing at n-C16:1, n-C18:1, n-C20:1 and n-C22:1). This unusual predominance of even-numbered n-alkanes/alkenes is reported for the first time in the Gulf of Gabes and it thus contributes to the information on the rare occurrence of such distributions in the geosphere.