The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Deficit in memory consolidation (abnormal forgetting rate) in childhood temporal lobe epilepsy. Pre and postoperative long-term observation.

Deficits in memory consolidation have been reported in adult patients with epilepsy but, not to our knowledge, in children. We report the long-term follow-up (9 y. o. to 18 y. o.) of a boy who suffered from temporal lobe epilepsy and underwent a left temporal lobectomy with amygdalo-hippocampal resection at the age of 10. He showed an abnormal forgetting rate when trying to encode new information and a significant deficit for retrieving remote episodic memories (when compared with his twin brother), both consistent with a consolidation disorder. His memory condition slightly improved after cessation of the epilepsy, nevertheless did not normalize. No standard memory assessment could pinpoint his memory problem, hence an adapted methodology was needed. We discuss the nature of the memory deficit, its possible causes and its clinical implications.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

Short- and long-term changes in chromosomal inversion polymorphism and global warming: Drosophila subobscura from the Balkans

The chromosomal inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura is adaptive to environmental changes. The population of Petnica, Serbia, was chosen to analyze short- and long-term changes in this polymorphism. Short-term changes were studied in the samples collected in May, June, and August of 1995. The inversion polymorphism varied over these months, although various interpretations are possible. To analyze long-term changes, samples obtained in May 1995 and May 2010 were compared. The frequency of the 'cold' adapted inversions (Ast, Jst, Ust, Est, and Ost) decreased and that of the 'warm' adapted inversions (A2, J1, U1+2, and O3+4) increased, from 1995 to 2010. These changes are consistent with the general increase in temperature recorded in Petnica for the same period. Finally, the possible response of chromosomal polymorphism to global warming was analyzed at the regional level (Balkan peninsula). This polymorphism depends on the ecological conditions of the populations, and the changes observed appear to be consistent with global warming expectations. Natural selection seems to be the main mechanism responsible for the evolution of this chromosomal polymorphism.

The psychosocial difficulties in brain disorders that explain short term changes in health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: This study identifies a set of psychosocial difficulties that are associated with short term changes in health outcomes across a heterogeneous set of brain disorders, neurological and psychiatric. METHODS: Longitudinal observational study over approximately 12 weeks with three time points of assessment and 741 patients with depression, bipolar disorders, multiple sclerosis, parkinson's disease, migraine, traumatic brain injury and stroke. The data on disability was collected with the checklist of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. The selected health outcomes were the Short Form 36 and the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule. Multilevel models for change were applied controlling for age, gender and disease severity. RESULTS: The psychosocial difficulties that explain the variability and change over time of the selected health outcomes were energy and drive, sleep, and emotional functions, and a broad range of activities and participation domains, such as solving problems, conversation, areas of mobility and self-care, relationships, community life and recreation and leisure. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are of interest to researchers and clinicians for interventions and health systems planning as they show that in addition to difficulties that are diagnostic criteria of these disorders, there are other difficulties that explain small changes in health outcomes over short periods of time.

Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs

We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

Long-term changes in synaptic transmission of the lateral amygdala induced by strong "in vitro" activation

Résumé : L'amygdale latérale (AL) joue un .rôle essentiel dans la plasticité synaptique à la base du conditionnement de la peur. Malgré le faite que la majorité des cellules de l'AL reçoivent les afférentes nécessaires, une potentialisation dans seulement une partie d'entre elles est obligatoire afin que l'apprentissage de la peur ait lieu. Il a été montré que ces cellules expriment la forme active de CREB, et celui-ci a été associé aux cellules dites de type 'nonaccomrnodating' (nAC). Très récemment, une étude a impliqué les circuits récurrents de l'AL dans le conditionnement de la peur. Un lien entre ces deux observations n'a toutefois jamais été établi. t Nous avons utilisé un protocole in vitro de forte activation de l'AL, résultant dans l'induction de 'bursts' provenant de l'hippocampe et se propageant jusqu'à l'AL. Dans l'AL ces 'bursts' atteignent toutes les cellules et se propagent à travers plusieurs chemins. Utilisant ce protocole, nous avons, pour la première fois pu associer dans l'AL, des cellules connectées de manière récurrente avec des cellules de type nAC. Aussi bien dans ces dernières que dans les cellules de type 'accommodating' (AC), une diminution dans la transmission inhibitrice, à la fois exprimée de manière pré synaptique mais également indépendant de la synthèse de protéine a pu être observé. Au contraire, une potentialisation induite et exprimée au niveau pré synaptique ainsi que dépendante de la synthèse de protéine a pu être trouvé uniquement dans les cellules de type nAC. De plus, une hyperexcitabilité, dépendante des récepteurs NMDA a pu être observé, avec une sélection préférentielle des cellules du type nAC dans la génération de bursts. Nous avons également pu démontrer que la transformation d'un certain nombre de cellules de type AC en cellules dites nAC accompagnait cette augmentation générale de l'excitabilité de l'AL. Du faite da la grande quantité d'indices suggérant une connexion entre le système noradrénergique et les états de peur/d'anxiété, les effets d'une forte activation de l'AL sur ce dernier ont été investigués et ont révélés une perte de sa capacité de modulation du 'spiking pattern'. Finalement, des changements au niveau de l'expression d'un certain nombre de gènes, incluant celui codant pour le BDNF, a pu être trouvé à la suite d'une forte activation de l'AL. En raison du lien récemment décrit entre l'expression de la forme active de CREB et des cellules de type nAC ainsi que celui de l'implication des cellules de l'AL connectés de manière récurrente dans l'apprentissage de la peur, nos résultats nous permettent de suggérer un modèle expliquant comment la potentialisation des connections récurrentes entre cellules de type nAC pourrait être à la base de leur recrutement sélectif pendant le conditionnement de la peur. De plus, ils peuvent offrir des indices par rapport aux mécanismes à travers lesquels une sous population de neurones peut être réactivée par une stimulation externe précédemment inefficace, et induire ainsi un signal suffisamment fort pour qu'il soit transmit aux structures efférentes de l'AL. Abstract : The lateral nucleus of the amygdala (LA) is critically involved in the plasticity underlying fear-conditioned learning (Sah et al., 2008). Even though the majority of cells in the LA receive the necessary sensory inputs, potentiation in only a subset is required for fear learning to occur (Repa et al., 2001; Rumpel et al., 2005). These cells express active CREB (CAMP-responsive element-binding protein) (Han et al., 200, and this was related to the non-accommodating (nAC) spiking phenotype (Viosca et al., 2009; Zhou et al., 2009). In addition, a very recent study implicated recurrently connected cells of the LA in fear conditioned learning (Johnson et al., 2008). A link between the two observations has however never been made. In rats, we used an in vitro protocol of strong activation of the LA, resulting in bursting activity, which spread from the hippocampus to the LA. Within the LA, this activity reached all cells and spread via a multitude of pathways. Using this model, we were able to link, for the first time, recurrently connected cells in the LA with cells of the nAC phenotype. While we found a presynaptically expressed, protein synthesis independent decrease in inhibitory synaptic transmission in both nAC and accommodating (AC) cells, only nAC cells underwent a presynaptically induced and expressed, protein synthesis dependent potentiation. Moreover we observed an NMDA dependent hyperexcitability of the LA, with a preferential selection of nAC cells into burst generation. The transformation of a subset of AC cells into nAC cells accompanied this general increase in LA excitability. Given the considerable evidence suggesting a relationship between the central noradrenergic (NA) system and fear/anxiety states (Itoi, 2008), the effects of strong activation of the LA on the noradrenergic system were investigated, which revealed a loss of its modulatory actions on cell spiking patterns. Finally, we found changes in the expression levels of a number of genes; among which the one coding for $DNF, to be induced by strong activation of the LA. In view of the recently described link between nAC cells and expression of pCREB (phosphorylated cAMP-responsive element-binding protein) as well as the involvement of recurrently connected cells of the LA in fear-conditioned learning, our findings may provide a model of how potentiation of recurrent connections between nAC neurons underlies their recruitment into the fear memory trace. Additionally, they may offer clues as to the mechanisms through which a selected subset of neurons can be reactivated by smaller, previously ineffective external stimulations to respond with a sufficiently strong signal, which can be transmitted to downstream targets of the LA.

Long-term changes in rice development in Southern Brazil, during the last ten decades

The objective of this work was to test long-term trends in the duration of rice development phases in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. The duration from emergence to V3 (EM-V3), emergence to panicle differentiation (EM-R1), emergence to anthesis (EM-R4), and emergence to all grains with brown hull (EM-R9) was calculated using leaf appearance and developmental models for four rice cultivars (IRGA 421, IRGA 417, EPAGRI 109, and EEA 406), for the period from 1912 to 2011, considering three emergence dates (early, mid, and late). The trend of the time series was tested with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated with simple linear regression. Rice development has changed over the last ten decades in this location, leading to an anticipation of harvest time of 17 to 31 days, depending on the cultivar maturity group and emergence date, which is related to trends of temperature increase during the growing season. Warmer temperatures over the evaluated time period are responsible for changing rice phenology in this location, since minimum and maximum daily temperature drive the rice developmental models used.

Inversion polymorphism in two Serbian natural populations of Drosophila subobscura: Analysis of long-term changes

To study whether inversions (or arrangements) by themselves or karyotypes are the main global warming adaptive target of natural selection, two Drosophila subobscura Serbian populations (Apatin and Petnica) were re analyzed using different statistical approaches. Both populations were sampled in an approximately 15 years period: Apatin in 1994 and 2008 + 2009 and Petnica in 1995 and 2010. For all chromosomes, the four collections studied were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Thus, it seems that inversions (or arrangements) combined at random to constitute populations" karyotypes. However, there were differences in karyotypic fre quencies along the years, although they were significant only for Apatin population. It is possible to conclude that inversions (or arrangements) are likely the target of natural selection, because they presented long term changes, but combine at random to generate the corresponding karyotypic combinations. As a consequence, the frequencies of karyotypes also change along time.

Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs

We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

Importance of early weight changes to predict long-term weight gain during psychotropic drug treatment.

BACKGROUND: Psychotropic drugs can induce substantial weight gain, particularly during the first 6 months of treatment. The authors aimed to determine the potential predictive power of an early weight gain after the introduction of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs on long-term weight gain. METHOD: Data were obtained from a 1-year longitudinal study ongoing since 2007 including 351 psychiatric (ICD-10) patients, with metabolic parameters monitored (baseline and/or 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 months) and with compliance ascertained. International Diabetes Federation and World Health Organization definitions were used to define metabolic syndrome and obesity, respectively. RESULTS: Prevalences of metabolic syndrome and obesity were 22% and 17%, respectively, at baseline and 32% and 24% after 1 year. Receiver operating characteristic analyses indicated that an early weight gain > 5% after a period of 1 month is the best predictor for important long-term weight gain (≥ 15% after 3 months: sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 88%; ≥ 20% after 12 months: sensitivity, 47%; specificity, 89%). This analysis identified most patients (97% for 3 months, 93% for 12 months) who had weight gain ≤ 5% after 1 month as continuing to have a moderate weight gain after 3 and 12 months. Its predictive power was confirmed by fitting a longitudinal multivariate model (difference between groups in 1 year of 6.4% weight increase as compared to baseline, P = .0001). CONCLUSION: Following prescription of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs, a 5% threshold for weight gain after 1 month should raise clinician concerns about weight-controlling strategies.

Temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after conventional and reduced tillage described by an exponential decay in time model

To study Assessing the impact of tillage practices on soil carbon losses dependents it is necessary to describe the temporal variability of soil CO2 emission after tillage. It has been argued that large amounts of CO2 emitted after tillage may serve as an indicator for longer-term changes in soil carbon stocks. Here we present a two-step function model based on soil temperature and soil moisture including an exponential decay in time component that is efficient in fitting intermediate-term emission after disk plow followed by a leveling harrow (conventional), and chisel plow coupled with a roller for clod breaking (reduced) tillage. Emission after reduced tillage was described using a non-linear estimator with determination coefficient (R²) as high as 0.98. Results indicate that when emission after tillage is addressed it is important to consider an exponential decay in time in order to predict the impact of tillage in short-term emissions.

Short-term changes in handgrip strength, body composition, and lymphedema induced by breast cancer surgery

PURPOSE: This study investigated short-term changes in body composition, handgrip strength, and presence of lymphedema in women who underwent breast cancer surgery.METHODS: Ninety-five women participated in a cross-sectional study, divided into two groups: Control (n=46), with healthy women, and Experimental (n=49), with women six months after breast cancer surgery . The Experimental Group was subdivided into right total mastectomy (RTM, n=15), left total mastectomy (LTM, n=11), right quadrant (RQ, n=13), and left quadrant (LQ, n=10). It was also redistributed among women with presence (n=10) or absence (n=39) of lymphedema. Presence of lymphedema, handgrip strength, and body composition were assessed.RESULTS: Trunk lean mass and handgrip strength were decreased in the Experimental Group. Total lean mass was increased in the LTM compared to RTM or LQ. Left handgrip strength in LTM was decreased compared to RTM and RQ and in LQ compared to RTM and RQ. Finally, total lean mass, trunk fat mass, trunk lean mass, right and left arm lean mass were increased in women with lymphedema.CONCLUSIONS: Breast cancer survivors have changes in their body composition and in handgrip strength six months after surgery; however, the interaction between the type of surgery and its impact is unclear. Furthermore, women who developed lymphedema in this period showed more significant changes in the body composition, but they were not enough to cause impairment in handgrip strength.

Disturbance and ecosystem functioning : the role of changes in benthic biological traits

Rapid changes in biodiversity are occurring globally, as a consequence of anthropogenic disturbance. This has raised concerns, since biodiversity is known to significantly contribute to ecosystem functions and services. Marine benthic communities participate in numerous functions provided by soft-sedimentary ecosystems. Eutrophication-induced oxygen deficiency is a growing threat against infaunal communities, both in open sea areas and in coastal zones. There is thus a need to understand how such disturbance affects benthic communities, and what is lost in terms of ecosystem functioning if benthic communities are harmed. In this thesis, the status of benthic biodiversity was assessed for the open Baltic Sea, a system severely affected by broad-scale hypoxia. Long-term monitoring data made it possible to establish quantitative biodiversity baselines against which change could be compared. The findings show that benthic biodiversity is currently severely impaired in large areas of the open Baltic Sea, from the Bornholm Basin to the Gulf of Finland. The observed reduction in biodiversity indicates that benthic communities are structurally and functionally impoverished in several of the sub-basins due to the hypoxic stress. A more detailed examination of disturbance impacts (through field studies and -experiments) on benthic communities in coastal areas showed that changes in benthic community structure and function took place well before species were lost from the system. The degradation of benthic community structure and function was directed by the type of disturbance, and its specific temporal and spatial characteristics. The observed shifts in benthic trait composition were primarily the result of reductions in species’ abundances, or of changes in demographic characteristics, such as the loss of large, adult bivalves. Reduction in community functions was expressed as declines in the benthic bioturbation potential and in secondary biomass production. The benthic communities and their degradation accounted for a substantial proportion of the changes observed in ecosystem multifunctionality. Individual ecosystem functions (i.e. measures of sediment ecosystem metabolism, elemental cycling, biomass production, organic matter transformation and physical structuring) were observed to differ in their response to increasing hypoxic disturbance. Interestingly, the results suggested that an impairment of ecosystem functioning could be detected at an earlier stage if multiple functions were considered. Importantly, the findings indicate that even small-scale hypoxic disturbance can reduce the buffering capacity of sedimentary ecosystem, and increase the susceptibility of the system towards further stress. Although the results of the individual papers are context-dependent, their combined outcome implies that healthy benthic communities are important for sustaining overall ecosystem functioning as well as ecosystem resilience in the Baltic Sea.

Electrocardiographic changes during low-dose, short-term therapy of cutaneous leishmaniasis with the pentavalent antimonial meglumine

The pentavalent antimonial (Sb5+) meglumine is the drug of choice for the treatment of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Brazil. Although the cardiotoxicity of high-dose, long-term Sb5+ therapy is well known, the use of low-dose, short-term meglumine has been considered to be safe and relatively free from significant cardiac effects. In order to investigate the cardiotoxicity of low-dose, short-term therapy with meglumine in cutaneous leishmaniasis, 62 CL patients treated with meglumine were studied. A standard ECG was obtained before and immediately after the first cycle of treatment (15 mg Sb5+ kg-1 day-1). The electrocardiographic interpretation was carried out blindly by two investigators using the Minnesota Code. There were no significant differences in qualitative ECG variables before and after meglumine treatment. However, the corrected QT interval was clearly prolonged after antimonial therapy (420.0 vs 429.3 ms, P<10-6). QTc augmentation exceeded 40 ms in 12 patients, 7 of whom developed marked QTc interval enlargement (500 ms) after meglumine therapy. This previously unrecognized cardiac toxicity induced by short-term, low-dose antimonial therapy has potentially important clinical implications. Since sudden death has been related to QTc prolongation over 500 ms induced by high-dose antimonial therapy, routine electrocardiographic monitoring is probably indicated even in CL patients treated with short-term, low-dose meglumine schedules. Until further studies are conducted to establish the interactions between pentavalent antimonials and other drugs, special care is recommended when using meglumine in combination with other medications, in particular with drugs that also increase the QTc interval.