Predictive value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.

Estimation of statistical cure from cancer using population-based data

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP)

OBJECTIVE: To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS: We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged ³60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS: We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownerrship) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.

Determination of the importance of iron acquisition for Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilm survival in human blood

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioengenharia

Retrospective Study of the Survival of Patients who Underwent Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in an Intensive Care Unit

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical and evolutive characteristics of patients admitted in an intensive care unit after cardiopulmonary resuscitation, identifying prognostic survival factors.METHODS: A retrospective study of 136 patients admitted between 1995 and 1999 to an intensive care unit, evaluating clinical conditions, mechanisms and causes of cardiopulmonary arrest, and their relation to hospital mortality.RESULTS: A 76% mortality rate independent of age and sex was observed. Asystole was the most frequent mechanism of death, and seen in isolation pulmonary arrest was the least frequent. Cardiac failure, need for mechanical ventilation, cirrhosis and previous stroke were clinically significant (p<0.01) death factors.CONCLUSION: Prognostic factors supplement the doctor's decision as to whether or not a patient will benefit from cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Effect of oscillatory breathing on the variability of the RR Intervals and its prognostic importance in individuals with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of the oscillatory breathing on the variability of RR intervals (VRR) and on prognostic significance after one year follow-up in subjects with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction. METHODS: We studied 76 subjects, whose age ranged from 40 to 80 years, paired for age and gender, divided into two groups: group I - 34 healthy subjects; group II - 42 subjects with left ventricular global systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction < 0.40). The ECG signals were acquired during 600s in supine position, and analyzed the variation of the thoracic amplitude and the VRR. Clinical and V-RR variables were applied into a logistic multivariate model to foretell survival after one year follow-up. RESULTS: Oscillatory breathing was detected in 35.7% of subjects in vigil state of group II, with a concentration of the spectral power in the very low frequency band, and was independent of the presence of diabetes, functional class, ejection fraction, cause of ventricular dysfunction and survival after one year follow-up. In the logistic regression model, ejection fraction was the only independent variable to predict survival. CONCLUSION: 1) Oscillatory breathing pattern is frequent during wakefulness in the left ventricular global systolic dysfunction and concentrates spectral power in the very low band of V-RR; 2) it does not relate to severity and cause of left ventricular dysfunction; 3) ejection fraction is the only independent predictive variable for survival in this group of subjects.

Búsqueda de nuevos extractos y compuestos obtenidos a partir de plantas del centro de Argentina con acción inhibidora de enzimas asociadas a patologías y a la supervivencia de organismos perjudiciales. Search for new extracts and compounds obtained from plants of central Argentina with inhibitoryactivity on enzymes associated with diseases and survival of harmful organisms.

La inhibición en la actividad de ciertas enzimas esenciales puede generar disturbios en la fisiología de algunos organismos como insectos, plantas y microorganismos y en muchos casos puede conducir a su muerte. Por otro lado, la inhibición de estas proteínas logra modificar factores implicados en la manifestación de determinadas enfermedades. Entre las enzimas que muestran estas características podemos mencionar a tirosinasa, p-hidroxifenilpiruvato dioxigenasa (HPPD) y acetilcolinesterasa (AChE). Debido a la necesidad de nuevas drogas con acción inhibidora de las mencionadas enzimas,los investigadores están explorando el mundo vegetal con el fin de obtenerlas,ya que se ha comprobado que las plantas son capaces de sintetizar esta clase de moléculas. Plantas nativas de nuestra región presentan esta propiedad. Continuando con la búsqueda de compuestos bioactivos obtenidos de plantas, se propone en este proyecto obtener nuevos agentes naturales altamente efectivos en inhibir las nombradas enzimas a partir de 100 plantas nativas de la región central de Argentina. Los compuestos aislados pueden ser utilizados directamente o servir como modelo para la síntesis de análogos. En primer lugar se determinará la efectividad de los extractos obtenidos a partir de las plantas seleccionadas como inhibidores de HPPD (utilizando el método del enol-borato) con el fin de seleccionar el más potente. A partir de este extracto y de aquellos seleccionados como más potentes en inhibir tirosinasa y AChE se aislarán, mediante aislamiento bioguiado, e identificarán el/los compuesto/s responsables. Este proceso será llevado a cabo por técnicas cromatográficas y espectroscópicas y el seguimiento de actividad se realizará mediante el método de enol-borato, dopacromo y Ellman para HPPD, tirosinasa y AChE,respectivamente. Posterior a determinar el nivel de actividad (IC50) de cada compuesto aislado se estudiará el posible efecto sinergista que pudieran ejercer al combinarlos entre ellos (si más de un compuesto es aislado de una planta) y con compuestos comerciales. Si los resultados muestran que los extractos ensayados y los metabolitos activos presentes en ellos exhiben alta efectividad en inhibir las enzimas, ellos pueden surgir como agentes terapéuticos eficaces para el tratamiento de ciertas enfermedades que las involucran y de esta manera mejorar la calidad de vida de los pacientes afectados. Estos productos pueden dar lugar a las compañías farmaceúticas a producir drogas no convencionales como nuevas alternativas medicinales. Por otro lado estas sustancias pueden derivar en novedosos herbicidas, antimicrobianos o insecticidas.Dado que todas las plantas propuestas crecen fácilmente en Argentina, la producción de estos medicamentos significaría nuevas fuentes laborales para nuestro país. El hecho de poder obtener y posteriormente utilizar estos productos aumenta en forma sustancial el aprovechamiento que podemos darle a nuestra rica flora nativa.

Validation of the Killip-Kimball Classification and Late Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: The classification or index of heart failure severity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) was proposed by Killip and Kimball aiming at assessing the risk of in-hospital death and the potential benefit of specific management of care provided in Coronary Care Units (CCU) during the decade of 60. Objective: To validate the risk stratification of Killip classification in the long-term mortality and compare the prognostic value in patients with non-ST-segment elevation MI (NSTEMI) relative to patients with ST-segment elevation MI (STEMI), in the era of reperfusion and modern antithrombotic therapies. Methods: We evaluated 1906 patients with documented AMI and admitted to the CCU, from 1995 to 2011, with a mean follow-up of 05 years to assess total mortality. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were developed for comparison between survival distributions according to Killip class and NSTEMI versus STEMI. Cox proportional regression models were developed to determine the independent association between Killip class and mortality, with sensitivity analyses based on type of AMI. Results: The proportions of deaths and the KM survival distributions were significantly different across Killip class >1 (p <0.001) and with a similar pattern between patients with NSTEMI and STEMI. Cox models identified the Killip classification as a significant, sustained, consistent predictor and independent of relevant covariables (Wald χ2 16.5 [p = 0.001], NSTEMI) and (Wald χ2 11.9 [p = 0.008], STEMI). Conclusion: The Killip and Kimball classification performs relevant prognostic role in mortality at mean follow-up of 05 years post-AMI, with a similar pattern between NSTEMI and STEMI patients.

BNP was Associated with Ischemic Myocardial Scintigraphy and Death in Patients at Chest Pain Unit

Background:Recent studies have suggested that B-type Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) is an important predictor of ischemia and death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Increased levels of BNP are seen after episodes of myocardial ischemia and may be related to future adverse events.Objectives:To determine the prognostic value of BNP for major cardiac events and to evaluate its association with ischemic myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS).Methods:This study included retrospectively 125 patients admitted to the chest pain unit between 2002 and 2006, who had their BNP levels measured on admission and underwent CPM for risk stratification. BNP values were compared with the results of the MPS. The chi-square test was used for qualitative variables and the Student t test, for quantitative variables. Survival curves were adjusted using the Kaplan-Meier method and analyzed by using Cox regression. The significance level was 5%.Results:The mean age was 63.9 ± 13.8 years, and the male sex represented 51.2% of the sample. Ischemia was found in 44% of the MPS. The mean BNP level was higher in patients with ischemia compared to patients with non-ischemic MPS (188.3 ± 208.7 versus 131.8 ± 88.6; p = 0.003). A BNP level greater than 80 pg/mL was the strongest predictor of ischemia on MPS (sensitivity = 60%, specificity = 70%, accuracy = 66%, PPV = 61%, NPV = 70%), and could predict medium-term mortality (RR = 7.29, 95% CI: 0.90-58.6; p = 0.045) independently of the presence of ischemia.Conclusions:BNP levels are associated with ischemic MPS findings and adverse prognosis in patients presenting with acute chest pain to the emergency room, thus, providing important prognostic information for an unfavorable clinical outcome.

Association between LDL-C, Non HDL-C, and Apolipoprotein B Levels with Coronary Plaque Regression

Background:Previous reports have inferred a linear relationship between LDL-C and changes in coronary plaque volume (CPV) measured by intravascular ultrasound. However, these publications included a small number of studies and did not explore other lipid markers.Objective:To assess the association between changes in lipid markers and regression of CPV using published data.Methods:We collected data from the control, placebo and intervention arms in studies that compared the effect of lipidlowering treatments on CPV, and from the placebo and control arms in studies that tested drugs that did not affect lipids. Baseline and final measurements of plaque volume, expressed in mm3, were extracted and the percentage changes after the interventions were calculated. Performing three linear regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between percentage and absolute changes in lipid markers and percentage variations in CPV.Results:Twenty-seven studies were selected. Correlations between percentage changes in LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and percentage changes in CPV were moderate (r = 0.48, r = 0.47, and r = 0.44, respectively). Correlations between absolute differences in LDL-C, non‑HDL-C, and ApoB with percentage differences in CPV were stronger (r = 0.57, r = 0.52, and r = 0.79). The linear regression model showed a statistically significant association between a reduction in lipid markers and regression of plaque volume.Conclusion:A significant association between changes in different atherogenic particles and regression of CPV was observed. The absolute reduction in ApoB showed the strongest correlation with coronary plaque regression.

One-year Mortality after an Acute Coronary Event and its Clinical Predictors: The ERICO Study

Background:Information about post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) survival have been mostly short-term findings or based on specialized, cardiology referral centers.Objectives:To describe one-year case-fatality rates in the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ERICO) cohort, and to study baseline characteristics as predictors.Methods:We analyzed data from 964 ERICO participants enrolled from February 2009 to December 2012. We assessed vital status by telephone contact and official death certificate searches. The cause of death was determined according to the official death certificates. We used log-rank tests to compare the probabilities of survival across subgroups. We built crude and adjusted (for age, sex and ACS subtype) Cox regression models to study if the ACS subtype or baseline characteristics were independent predictors of all-cause or cardiovascular mortality.Results:We identified 110 deaths in the cohort (case-fatality rate, 12.0%). Age [Hazard ratio (HR) = 2.04 per 10 year increase; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) = 1.75–2.38], non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 3.82 ; 95%CI = 2.21–6.60) or ST elevation myocardial infarction (HR = 2.59; 95%CI = 1.38–4.89) diagnoses, and diabetes (HR = 1.78; 95%CI = 1.20‑2.63) were significant risk factors for all-cause mortality in the adjusted models. We found similar results for cardiovascular mortality. A previous coronary artery disease diagnosis was also an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.61; 95%CI = 1.04–2.50), but not for cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion:We found an overall one-year mortality rate of 12.0% in a sample of post-ACS patients in a community, non-specialized hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Age, ACS subtype, and diabetes were independent predictors of poor one‑year survival for overall and cardiovascular-related causes.

Myocardial Scintigraphy in the Evaluation of Cardiac Events in Patients without Typical Symptoms

AbstractBackground:Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death in the world and in Brazil. Myocardial scintigraphy is an important noninvasive method for detecting ischemia in symptomatic patients, but its use in asymptomatic ones or those with atypical symptoms is yet to be defined.Objective:To verify the presence of major cardiac events in asymptomatic patients or those with atypical symptoms (atypical chest pain or dyspnea) that underwent myocardial scintigraphy (MS), over a period of 8 years. Secondary objectives were to identify cardiac risk factors associated with myocardial scintigraphy abnormalities and possible predictors for major cardiac events in this group.Methods:This was a retrospective, observational study using the medical records of 892 patients that underwent myocardial scintigraphy between 2005 and 2011 and who were followed until 2013 for assessment of major cardiac events and risk factors associated with myocardial scintigraphy abnormalities. Statistical analysis was performed by Fisher’s exact test, logistic regression and Kaplan-Meyer survival curves, with statistical significance being set at p ≤ 0.05.Results:Of the total sample, 52.1% were men, 86.9% were hypertensive, 72.4% had hyperlipidemia, 33.6% were diabetic, and 12.2% were smokers; 44.5% had known coronary artery disease; and 70% had high Framingham score, 21.8% had moderate and 8% had low risk. Of the myocardial scintigraphies, 58.6% were normal, 26.1% suggestive of fibrosis and 15.3% suggestive of ischemia. At evolution, 13 patients (1.5%) had non-fatal myocardial infarction and six individuals (0.7%) died. The group with normal myocardial scintigraphy showed longer period of time free of major cardiac events, non-fatal myocardial infarction (p = 0.036) and death. Fibrosis in the myocardial scintigraphy determined a 2.4-fold increased risk of non-fatal myocardial infarction and five-fold higher risk of death (odds ratio: 2.4 and 5.7, respectively; p = 0.043).Conclusion:The occurrence of major cardiac events in 8 years was small. Patients with fibrosis at MS had more major events, whereas patients with normal MS result had fewer major cardiac events, with higher survival.

Reduced Progression of Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy with Routine Use of Induction Therapy with Basiliximab

AbstractIntroduction:Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is a major limitation for long-term survival of patients undergoing heart transplantation (HT). Some immunosuppressants can reduce the risk of CAV.Objectives:The primary objective was to evaluate the variation in the volumetric growth of the intimal layer measured by intracoronary ultrasound (IVUS) after 1 year in patients who received basiliximab compared with that in a control group.Methods:Thirteen patients treated at a single center between 2007 and 2009 were analyzed retrospectively. Evaluations were performed with IVUS, measuring the volume of a coronary segment within the first 30 days and 1 year after HT. Vasculopathy was characterized by the volume of the intima of the vessel.Results:Thirteen patients included (7 in the basiliximab group and 6 in the control group). On IVUS assessment, the control group was found to have greater vessel volume (120–185.43 mm3 vs. 127.77–131.32 mm3; p = 0.051). Intimal layer growth (i.e., CAV) was also higher in the control group (27.30–49.15 mm3 [∆80%] vs. 20.23–26.69 mm3[∆33%]; p = 0.015). Univariate regression analysis revealed that plaque volume and prior atherosclerosis of the donor were not related to intima growth (r = 0.15, p = 0.96), whereas positive remodeling was directly proportional to the volumetric growth of the intima (r = 0.85, p < 0.001).Conclusion:Routine induction therapy with basiliximab was associated with reduced growth of the intima of the vessel during the first year after HT.

Optimal designs for mixed effects poisson regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Optimal designs for the prediction in hierarchical random coefficient regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2015