923 resultados para Survival rate


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There is expanding interest in the culture of the Australian shortfin eel Anguilla australis Richardson; however, there is a lack of fundamental biology and husbandry information necessary to further develop an industry within Australia. The present study was undertaken to gain a preliminary understanding of basic husbandry requirements for rearing of juvenile A. australis (glass eels and elvers) in tanks and earthen ponds. Newly caught glass eels were successfully acclimated to culture conditions. During tank culture trials, specific growth rates (SGR) and survival rates ranged from −2.1 to 2.8% day−1 and 52% to 100% respectively. Glass eels weaned onto a commercial eel diet exhibited a significantly greater SGR and survival rate than those weaned onto a commercial trout diet. Glass eels weaned onto an eel diet over a 15-day period grew slightly faster than eels weaned over a 5-day period, but survival rates were not significantly different for each treatment. SGRs (up to 2.8% day−1) were significantly higher for glass eels fed at 9 and 12% day−1 than at 6% day−1. Stocking densities between 2.5 kg m−3 and 30 kg m−3 did not influence either SGR or survival rates. SGRs were significantly higher for glass eels cultured at 25 °C than at lower temperatures. During pond culture trials, SGRs and survival rates ranged from 1.36 to 1.65% day−1 and 39% to 77% respectively. The SGR and survival rates of juvenile eels stocked into ponds receiving supplementary feeding with a commercial eel diet were not significantly different to those of eels stocked into ponds that did not receive supplementary feeding.

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Artificial chick shelters might improve productivity of beach-nesting birds threatened by anthropogenic disturbance. We investigated the efficacy of three different chick shelter designs against four criteria: accessibility to chicks over time, thermal insulation, conspicuousness to beach-goers, and practicality (cost and ease of transport). One design (‘A-frame’) was selected because it offered the greatest thermal insulation, was the least conspicuous, most cost effective, and performed equally well in terms of accessibility. We deployed these artificial shelters on Hooded Plover Thinornis rubricollis territories where broods were present (n 5 11), and compared the behaviour and survival rate of chicks to that at control sites (n 5 10). We were unable to discern any difference in the behaviour of broods when artificial shelters were available. However, the survival rate of chicks to fledging was 71.8% higher where an artificial shelter was provided (n 5 21 broods). This was validated by analysing data from a larger sample of broods monitored as part of an active volunteer-based management programme; shelters conferred a 42.8%increase in survival to fledging (n 5 81 broods). Thus, artificial shelters have the potential to increase survival rates of threatened shorebird chicks, though the mechanisms through which survival is increased require further investigation.

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Nutrient discharge into coastal areas, such as the Great Barrier Reef can result in the degradation of coastal ecosystems. For example, excess nitrogen and phosphorus can damage corals through inducing algal bloom and subsequent shading. Excessive phosphorus can further weaken coral skeletons making them susceptible to damage. Land based industries such as aquaculture can contribute to such problems. This study set out to develop a system whereby water from aquaculture can be constantly reused resulting in minimized waste discharge. A three-stage filtration system utilizing floating media and activated carbon was designed to harness bacterial processes that could reduce both particulate and dissolved compounds to the extent whereby approximately 100% reuse of the wastewater became possible. This involved efficient and effective particulate and biological removal mechanisms in both aerobic and anaerobic zones of the filtration system. This design reduced dissolved nitrogen levels by up to 70% and maintained low phosphorus levels, which allowed the reuse of water for the successful culture of barramundi with a survival rate of 97% over 25 days. This pilot scale study demonstrated the potential of reusing aquaculture wastewater from the viewpoint of reducing nutrient input into coastal environments. Future research will refine these processes and assess the performance of the system at several commercial scale applications.

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Background In this phase II trial, we investigated the efficacy of a metronomic temozolomide schedule in the treatment of recurrent malignant gliomas (MGs).

Methods Eligible patients received daily temozolomide (50 mg/m2) continuously until progression. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival rate at 6 months in the glioblastoma cohort (N = 37). In an exploratory analysis, 10 additional recurrent grade III MG patients were enrolled. Correlative studies included evaluation of 76 frequent mutations in glioblastoma (iPLEX assay, Sequenom) aiming at establishing the frequency of potentially “drugable” mutations in patients entering recurrent MG clinical trials.

Results Among glioblastoma patients, median age was 56 y; median Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS) was 80; 62% of patients had been treated for ≥2 recurrences, including 49% of patients having failed bevacizumab. Treatment was well tolerated; clinical benefit (complete response + partial response + stable disease) was seen in 10 (36%) patients. Progression-free survival rate at 6 months was 19% and median overall survival was 7 months. Patients with previous bevacizumab exposure survived significantly less than bevacizumab-naive patients (median overall survival: 4.3 mo vs 13 mo; hazard ratio = 3.2; P = .001), but those patients had lower KPS (P = .04) and higher number of recurrences (P < .0001). Mutations were found in 13 of the 38 MGs tested, including mutations of EGFR (N = 10), IDH1 (N = 5), and ERBB2 (N = 1).

Conclusions In spite of a heavily pretreated population, including nearly half of patients having failed bevacizumab, the primary endpoint was met, suggesting that this regimen deserves further investigation. Results in bevacizumab-naive patients seemed particularly favorable, while results in bevacizumab-failing patients highlight the need to develop further treatment strategies for advanced MG.

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Considerable variability in survival rate after an acute myocardial infarction exists and accurate risk stratification is of significant importance. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association has recommended early risk stratification using several clinical risk scoring instruments to identify high risk patients. The aim of this paper is to identify secondary cardiovascular risk scoring instruments that could be utilized at the time of intervention for acute coronary syndromes and compare their psychometric properties as they were developed. A search using Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and the Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection data-bases identified studies published between January 1990 and January 2010 used to measure risk after intervention for acute coronary syndrome. Four validated secondary risk prediction scoring instruments were identified for comparison.Secondary risk prediction scoring instruments for the acute coronary syndrome patient population are evidence based, valid and reliable. Use of the instruments by cardiac focused clinicians will aid in the determination of treatment strategies, and estimation of short and long term events and mortality.

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 Some ground-nesting birds adopt a mixed strategy of nesting in the open, or under cover (e.g. vegetation). This may represent a trade-off between thermally favourable nest sites (covered) and those that enable the early detection and avoidance of predators (open). This study examined whether such a trade-off exists for Redcapped Plover Charadrius ruficapillus, whose eggs are preyed upon principally by Little Raven Corvus mellori. For real and artificial nests, nest temperatures under cover (real, 25.9 ± 0.1°C; false, 16.2 ± 0.5°C) were cooler than those in the open (real, 26.8 ± 0.1°C; false, 17.4 ± 0.9°C). Covered nests had more visual obstructions than open nests (covered, 65.5% ± 11.4%; open, 7.4% ± 2.8%) and a standardised measure of incubator escape distance, initiated by experimental human approaches, indicated incubators fled open nests at longer distances than for covered nests. Nests under cover showed a slightly (non-significant) higher probability of surviving one day (Daily Survival Rate [DSR] = 0.978) than those in the open (DSR = 0.950). For false nests containing model eggs, covered nests exhibited better survival to 10 days compared with open nests (20.4% vs. 4.7%). Thus, covered nests are associated with enhanced thermal environments and egg survival, but predators can approach the incubator more closely. Overall, the proposed trade-off between thermal and predation risks associated with nest sites appears to exist and explains the ongoing occurrence of nests in open and covered locations.

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This is the first ever attempt to combine anti-cancer therapeutic effects of emerging anticancer biodrug bovine lactoferrin (bLf), and multimodal imaging efficacy of Fe3O4 nanoparticles (NPs) together, as a saturated Fe3O4-bLf. For cancer stem cell specific uptake of nanocapsules/nanocarriers (NCs), Fe3O4-bLf was encapsulated in alginate enclosed chitosan coated calcium phosphate (AEC-CP) NCs targeted (Tar) with locked nucleic acid (LNA) modified aptamers against epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM) and nucleolin markers. The nanoformulation was fed orally to mice injected with triple positive (EpCAM, CD133, CD44) sorted colon cancer stem cells in the xenograft cancer stem cell mice model. The complete regression of tumor was observed in 70% of mice fed on non-targeted (NT) NCs, with 30% mice showing tumor recurrence after 30 days, while only 10% mice fed with Tar NCs showed tumor recurrence indicating a significantly higher survival rate. From tumor tissue analyses of 35 apoptotic markers, 55 angiogenesis markers, 40 cytokines, 15 stem cell markers and gene expression studies of important signaling molecules, it was revealed that the anti-cancer mechanism of Fe3O4-bLf was intervened through TRAIL, Fas, Fas-associated protein with death domain (FADD) mediated phosphorylation of p53, to induce activation of second mitochondria-derived activator of caspases (SMAC)/DIABLO (inhibiting survivin) and mitochondrial depolarization leading to release of cytochrome C. Induction of apoptosis was observed by inhibition of the Akt pathway and activation of cytokines released from monocytes/macrophages and dendritic cells (interleukin (IL) 27, keratinocyte chemoattractant (KC)). On the other hand, the recurrence of tumor in AEC-CP-Fe3O4-bLf NCs fed mice mainly occurred due to activation of alternative pathways such as mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPK)/extracellular signal-regulated kinases (ERK) and Wnt signaling leading to an increase in expression of survivin, survivin splice variant (survivin 2B) and other anti-apoptotic proteins Bad, Bcl-2 and XIAP. Apart from the promising anti-cancer efficacy and the exceptional tumor targeting ability observed by multimodal imaging using near-infrared (NIR) imaging, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computerized tomographic (CT) techniques, these NCs also maintained the immunomodulatory benefits of bLf as they were able to increase the RBC, hemoglobin, iron calcium and zinc levels in mice.

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OBJETIVO: Determinar o impacto de fatores prognósticos na sobrevida de pacientes com metástases hepáticas ressecadas e originadas de câncer colorretal. CASUISTICA E MÉTODOS: Foram analisados os prontuários de 28 pacientes submetidos a ressecção hepática de metástases de câncer colorretal de Abril /1992 a Setembro /2001. Foram realizadas 38 ressecções (8 pacientes com mais de uma ressecção no mesmo tempo cirúrgico e 2 pacientes submetidos a re-ressecções). Todos haviam sido submetidos previamente à ressecção do tumor primário. Utilizou-se um protocolo de rastreamento de metástases hepáticas que incluiu revisões clinicas trimestrais, ecografia abdominal e dosagem de CEA até completarem-se 5 anos de seguimento e, após, semestralmente. Os fatores prognósticos estudados foram: estágio do tumor primário, tamanho das metástases > 5cm, intervalo entre ressecção do tumor primário e surgimento da metástase <1 ano, CEA>100ng/ml, margens cirúrgicas <1cm e doença metastática extra-hepática. O estudo foi retrospectivo e a análise estatística foi feita através da curva de Kaplan-Meier, do log rank e da regressão de Cox. RESULTADOS: A morbidade foi 39,3% e a mortalidade operatória foi 3,6%.A sobrevida em 5 anos foi de 35%. Os fatores prognósticos independentes adversos foram: intervalo <1 ano entre ressecção do tumor primário e surgimento da metástase (p=0,047 e RR 11,56) e doença metastática extra-hepática (p=0,004 e RR=57,28). CONCLUSÕES: A ressecção hepática de metástases de câncer colorretal é um procedimento seguro com sobrevida em 5 anos acima dos 30%. Foram fatores prognósticos independentes adversos: doença metastática extra-hepática e intervalo<1ano entre ressecção do tumor primário e surgimento da metástase.

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Os experimentos tiveram como objetivo determinar a taxa de eclosão dos embriões vitrificados em volumes diferentes de 9,0 M de etileno glicol. Simultaneamente, testou-se dois procedimentos de estocagem dos fios de teflon, denominados caixa de aço inoxidável e globete/raque. No experimento I, os 881 embriões coletados foram distribuídos em 4 tratamentos: tratamento 1 (T1= controle): 307 embriões foram cultivados in vitro em meio PBSm, acrescido de 0,4% de BSA; tratamento 2 (T2): 292 embriões foram expostos à solução de glicerol 10% acrescida de 0,4% de BSA, envasados em palhetas de 0,25 mL e submetidos ao congelamento pelo método rápido em Biocool; tratamento 3 (T3): 138 embriões foram expostos durante 2 minutos à solução de desidratação (10% de EG + 6% BSA em PBSm) e então transferidos para a solução de vitrificação (50% de EG + 6% de BSA em PBSm), onde permaneceram por 30 segundos e foram colocados em volume de 1 μL no interior de um fio de teflon, medindo 0,4 mm de diâmetro, 2,0 cm de comprimento e 0,05 mm de espessura. Os fios foram acondicionados em uma caixa de aço inoxidável para serem armazenados em nitrogênio líquido; tratamento 4 (T4): 144 embriões foram expostos à solução de desidratação (10% de EG + 6% BSA em PBSm) e após 2 minutos, foram transferidos para a solução de vitrificação (50% de EG + 6% BSA em PBSm), onde permaneceram por 30 segundos, sendo após transferidos para um volume de 1 μL no interior do fio de teflon. Os fios de teflon foram estocados em globetes unidos às raques e mantidos em nitrogênio líquido. Após o aquecimento, os embriões foram cultivados em PBSm suplementado com 0,4% de BSA. As taxas de eclosão embrionária observadas foram: T1=76,29% (245/307); T2=41,05% (117/292); T3=37,98% (54/138) e T4=26,78% (37/144). No segundo experimento, 747 embriões foram distribuídos em 3 tratamentos: tratamento 1 (T1= controle): 80 embriões foram cultivados in vitro em meio KSOM acrescido de 0,4% de BSA; tratamento 2 (T2): 334 embriões expostos em solução de glicerol 10% acrescida de 0,4% de BSA, foram envasados em palhetas de 0,25 mL e submetidos ao congelamento pelo método rápido em Biocool; tratamento 3 (T3): 333 blastocistos foram expostos durante 2 minutos à solução de desidratação (10% de EG + 0,4% BSA em PBSm) e então transferidos para tubos eppendorf de 2,0 mL em contato com a solução de vitrificação (50% de EG + 0,4% BSA em PBSm). Após o cultivo in vitro, as taxas de eclosão embrionária observadas nos 3 tratamentos foram respectivamente: 88,75% (71/80), 40,44% (141/334) e 19,70% (66/333). Baseado nesses resultados conclui-se que embriões Mus domesticus domesticus submetidos à técnica de vitrificação após exposição à solução de 9,0 M de etileno glicol e envase em fios de teflon assegurou índices satisfatórios de sobrevivência embrionária. As taxas de sobrevivência dos embriões Mus domesticus domesticus foi independente do procedimento de estocagem em botijão de nitrogênio líquido. A vitrificação em solução de 9,0 M de etileno glicol com envase em tubos eppendorf não foi eficiente para promover altas taxas de sobrevivência embrionária, mas proporcionou segurança biológica aos embriões, durante o armazenamento.

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O câncer colorretal é um tumor maligno freqüente no mundo ocidental. É o terceiro em freqüência e o segundo em mortalidade nos países desenvolvidos. No Brasil está entre as seis neoplasias malignas mais encontradas e a quinta em mortalidade. Dos tumores colorretais, aproximadamente 40% estão localizados no reto. A sobrevida, em cinco anos, dos pacientes operados por câncer do reto varia entre 40% e 50%, estando os principais fatores prognósticos, utilizados na prática clínica corrente, baseados em critérios de avaliação clínico-patológicos. A avaliação das alterações morfométricas e densimétricas nas neoplasias malignas tem, recentemente, sido estudadas e avaliadas através da análise de imagem digital e demonstrado possibilidades de utilização diagnóstica e prognóstica. A assinatura digital é um histograma representativo de conjuntos de características de textura da cromatina do núcleo celular obtida através da imagem computadorizada. O objetivo deste estudo foi a caracterização dos núcleos celulares neoplásicos no adenocarcinoma primário de reto pelo método da assinatura digital e verificar o valor prognóstico das alterações nucleares da textura da cromatina nuclear para esta doença. Foram avaliados, pelo método de análise de imagem digital, 51 casos de pacientes operados no Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA) entre 1988 e 1996 e submetidos à ressecção eletiva do adenocarcinoma primário de reto, com seguimento de cinco anos pós-operatório, ou até o óbito antes deste período determinado pela doença, e 22 casos de biópsias normais de reto obtidas de pacientes submetidos a procedimentos endoscópicos, para controle do método da assinatura digital. A partir dos blocos de parafina dos espécimes estocados no Serviço de Patologia do HCPA, foram realizadas lâminas coradas com hematoxilina e eosina das quais foram selecionados 3.635 núcleos dos adenocarcinomas de reto e 2.366 núcleos dos controles da assinatura digital, totalizando 6.001 núcleos estudados por análise de imagem digital. De cada um destes núcleos foram verificadas 93 características, sendo identificadas 11 características cariométricas com maior poder de discriminação entre as células normais e neoplásicas. Desta forma, através da verificação da textura da cromatina nuclear, foram obtidos os histogramas representativos de cada núcleo ou conjunto de núcleos dos grupos ou subgrupos estudados, também no estadiamento modificado de Dukes, dando origem às assinaturas digitais correspondentes. Foram verificadas as assinaturas nucleares, assinaturas de padrão histológico ou de lesões e a distribuição da Densidade Óptica Total. Houve diferença significativa das características entre o grupo normal e o grupo com câncer, com maior significância para três delas, a Área, a Densidade Óptica Total e a Granularidade nuclear. Os valores das assinaturas médias nucleares foram: no grupo normal 0,0009 e nos estadiamentos; 0,9681 no A, 4,6185 no B, 2,3957 no C e 2,1025 no D e diferiram com significância estatística (P=0,001). A maior diferença do normal ocorreu no subgrupo B de Dukes-Turnbull. As assinaturas nucleares e de padrão histológico mostraram-se distintas no grupo normal e adenocarcinoma, assim como a distribuição da Densidade Óptica Total a qual mostra um afastamento progressivo da normalidade no grupo com câncer. Foi possível a caracterização do adenocarcinoma de reto, que apresentou assinaturas digitais específicas. Em relação ao prognóstico, a Densidade Óptica Total representou a variável que obteve o melhor desempenho, além do estadiamento, como preditor do desfecho.

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A leucemia mielóide aguda (LMA) acomete pacientes de todas as faixas etárias com freqüência aumentada em idosos. Nosso estado não apresenta registros sistemáticos da patologia, justificando-se desta forma o levantamento através dos centros de diagnóstico e tratamento, os quais concentram a maioria dos casos. Foram incluídos todos os pacientes com diagnóstico de LMA “de novo” levantados a partir dos registros dos centros de diagnóstico e tratamento da patologia no estado no período entre 1996 e 2000. Foram computados no período 532 pacientes (taxa estimada de 1,04 casos / 100.000 habitantes / ano). A idade média ao diagnóstico foi 41,0 anos e 46,6 % dos casos eram do sexo masculino. Houve distribuição semelhante nas 7 mesorregiões geográficas do estado. Em relação ao número de casos por faixa etária, observou-se uma taxa estimada em 0,5 – 1 caso / 100.000 habitantes até a faixa etária dos 45 anos, atingindo 3,5 casos / 100.000 habitantes na faixa etária igual ou superior a 70 anos. A sobrevida média considerando todos os casos foi de 17%, aumentando para 25% considerando a população abaixo de 60 anos e alcançando 40% na população entre 10 e 20 anos. Tais dados evidenciam uma distribuição semelhante por região, estimativa de incidência na faixa infantil semelhante a países desenvolvidos e bastante menor na população idosa. A mortalidade geral foi semelhante àquela relatada na literatura.

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This thesis provides information on the grouping structure, survival, abundance, dive characteristics and habitat preferences of short-finned pilot whales occurring in the oceanic archipelago of Madeira (Portugal, NE Atlantic), based on data collected between 2001-2011, and contributes for its conservation. Photo-identification methods and genetic analyses demonstrated that there is a large degree of variability in site fidelity, including resident, regular visitor and transient whales, and that they may not be genetically isolated. It is proposed that the pilot whales encountered in Madeira belong to a single population encompassing several clans, possibly three clans of island-associated (i.e. resident and regular visitor) whales and others of transients, each containing two to three matrilineal pods. Mark-recapture methods estimated that the island-associated community is composed of less than 150 individuals and that their survival rate is within the range of other long-lived cetacean species, and that around 300 whales of different residency patterns uses the southern area of the island of Madeira from mid-summer to mid-autumn. No significant trend was observed between years. Time-depth recorders deployed in adult whales during daytime revealed that they spend over ¾ of their time at the surface, that they have a low diving rate, and that transient whales also forage during their passage. The analyses of visual data collected from nautical and aerial line-transect surveys indicate a core/preferred habitat area in the south-east of the island of Madeira. That area is used for resting, socializing, foraging, breeding, calving and birthing. Thus, that area should be considered as an important habitat for this species, at least seasonally (during autumn) when the species is more abundant, and included in conservation plans. No direct threat needing urgent measures was identified, although the impact of some activities like whale-watching or marine traffic should be assessed.

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This study aimed to provide an insight on the ecology of the bottlenose dolphin population in Madeira archipelago. To achieve this, population structure; group dynamics, site-fidelity, residency and movement patterns within and out of the study area; survival and abundance estimates and spatial and temporal distribution and habitat preferences related to physiographic parameters using data collected between 2001-2011, were investigated. Photo-identification data analysis revealed strong evidences that bottlenose dolphins seen in the archipelago of Madeira belong to an open population with regular recruitment of new animals to the area. This population exhibited a typical fission-fusion society, in which short-term acquaintances prevail, with only a few long-lasting associations. Photo-identification methods demonstrated that there is a large variability in residency pattern, with resident, transient and migrant individuals. Only a small number of dolphins were found to be resident (4.3%). Social network diagram as well as SLAR analysis supported the existence of a mixed population of residents, migrants and transients. Mark-recapture methods estimated a high survival rate, within the range of other long-lived cetacean species. The resident community is composed of app. 180 individuals. In addition, around 400 dolphins of different residency patterns were found to use the south area of Madeira Island. Spatial distribution indicated that bottlenose dolphins were regularly found in shallow and closer to shore areas, suggesting the existence of biological processes influenced by bathymetry. Moreover, temporal patterns revealed no strong seasonal fluctuation in the presence of bottlenose dolphins in Madeira archipelago waters. Bottlenose dolphins are listed under the Annex II of the EU habitats Directive that requires the designation of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) for this species; as such, the knowledge gained through this work can be used by governmental authorities to the establishment and management of areas for the conservation of bottlenose dolphin in Madeira archipelago.

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Amphotericin B (AmB), an antifungal agent that presents a broad spectrum of activity, remains the gold standard in the antifungal therapy. However, sometimes the high level of toxicity forbids its clinical use. The aim of this work was to evaluate and compare the efficacy and toxicity in vitro of Fungizon™ (AmB-D) and two new different AmB formulations. Methods: three products were studied: Fungizon™, and two Fungizon™ /Lipofundin™ admixtures, which were diluted through two methods: in the first one, Fungizon™ was previously diluted with water for injection and then, in Lipofundin™ (AmB-DAL); the second method consisted of a primary dilution of AmB-D as a powder in the referred emulsion (AmB-DL). For the in vitro assay, two cell models were used: Red Blood Cells (RBC) from human donors and Candida tropicallis (Ct). The in vitro evaluation (K+ leakage, hemoglobin leakage and cell survival rate-CSR) was performed at four AmB concentrations (from 50 to 0.05mg.L-1). Results: The results showed that the action of AmB was not only concentration dependent, but also cellular type and vehicle kind dependent. At AmB concentrations of 50 mg.L-1, although the hemoglobin leakage for AmB-D was almost complete (99.51), for AmB-DAL and AmB-DL this value tended to zero. The p = 0.000 showed that AmB-D was significantly more hemolytic. Conclusion: The Fungizon™- Lipofundin™ admixtures seem to be the more valuable AmB carrier systems due to their best therapeutic index presented

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The aging process if characterizes for a complex events network, from multidimensional nature, that encloses biological, social, psychic and functional aspects. The alteration of one or more aspects can speed up the aging process, anticipating limitations and until the death in the aged. For an adjusted confrontation of this question is necessary an interdisciplinary vision, in which the some areas of the knowledge can interact and with this to intervenes of the best possible form. Then, information derived from studies of aspects related to incidence, morbidity-mortality and transition patterns, involved in the health-illness process can more accurately identify risk groups thereby establishing links between social factors, illness, incapacity and death. Thus, this study aimed to identify, by a multidimensional vision, the risk factors of mortality in a coorth of elderly in a city in the interior of the state of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. A prospective study carried out in Santa Cruz RN, where 310 elderly were randomly selected to form a baseline. The follow-up was 53 months. The predictive variables were divided into sociodemographic, physical health, neuropsychiatric and functional capacity. The statistical analysis carried out by bivariate analysis, survival analysis, followed by binary logistic regression and Cox regression, in the multivariate analysis, considering significant levels p < 0.05 and confidence interval (CI) of 95%. A total of 60 (19.3%) elderly died during the follow-up, where cardiovascular disease was the main cause. The survival was approximately 24.8 months. The study of general survival showed, at 12, 24, 36, and 48 months of observation, a survival rate of 97%, 54%, 31%, and 5% respectively, with a statistical difference in survival only observed for the variables of cognitive function and Basic Activities of Daily Living. In the logistic regression analysis, the risk factors identified were cognitive deficits (OR = 8.74), poor perception of health (OR = 3.89) and dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (OR = 3.96). In the Cox analysis, as well as dependence for Basic Activities of Daily Living (HR = 3.17), cognitive deficit (HR = 4.30) and stroke (CVA) (HR = 3.49) continued as independent risk factors for death. The risk factors found in the study can be interpreted as the primary predictors for death among elderly members of the community. Therefore, improvements in health conditions, with actions towards sustaining an autonomous life with special attention for elderly with cognitive impairment, could mean additional healthy quality of life, resulting in the reduction of premature mortality in this population