Links between atmospheric carbon dioxide, the land carbon reservoir and climate over the past millennium

The stability of terrestrial carbon reservoirs is thought to be closely linked to variations in climate 1, but the magnitude of carbon–climate feedbacks has proved dificult to constrain for both modern 2–4 and millennial 5–13 timescales. Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the past thousand years have shown fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales 5–7, but the causes of these fluctuations are unclear. Here we report high-resolution carbon isotope measurements of CO2 trapped within the ice of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core for the past 1,000 years. We use a deconvolution approach 14 to show that changes in terrestrial organic carbon stores best explain the observed multidecadal variations in the 13 C of CO2 and in CO2 concentrations from 755 to 1850 CE. If significant long-term carbon emissions came from pre-industrial anthropogenic land-use changes over this interval, the emissions must have been offset by a natural terrestrial sink for 13 C-depleted carbon, such as peatlands. We find that on multidecadal timescales, carbon cycle changes seem to vary with reconstructed regional climate changes. We conclude that climate variability could be an important control of fluctuations in land carbon storage on these timescales.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Diet and mobility of an Iron Age population in Switzerland; Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of the human remains from Münsingen

The 220 abundantly equipped burials from the Late Iron Age cemetery of Münsingen (420 – 240 BC) marked a milestone for Iron Age research. The evident horizontal spread throughout the time of occupancy laid the foundation for the chronology system of the Late Iron Age. Today the skulls of 77 individuals and some postcranial bones are still preserved. The aim was to obtain information about nutrition, social stratification and migration of the individuals from Münsingen. Stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur were analysed. The results of 63 individuals show that all consumed C3 plants as staple food with significant differences between males and females in δ13C and δ15N values. The results indicate a gender restriction in access to animal protein. Stable isotope values of one male buried with weapons and meat as grave goods suggest a diet with more animal proteins than the other individuals. It is possible that he was privileged due to high status. Furthermore, the δ34S values indicate minor mobility. Assuming that the subadults represent the local signal of δ34S it is very likely that adults with enriched δ34S could have migrated to Münsingen at some point during their lives. This study presents stable isotope values of one of the most important Late Iron Age burial sites in Central Europe. The presented data provide new insight into diet, migration and social stratification of the population from Münsingen.

Life-long growth of Quercus ilex L. at natural CO2 springs acclimates sulphur, nitrogen and carbohydrate metabolism of the progeny to elevated pCO2

The aim of the present study was to analyse whether offspring of mature Quercus ilex trees grown under life-long elevated pCO2 show alterations in the physiological response to elevated pCO2 in comparison with those originating from mature trees grown at current ambient pCO2. To investigate changes in C- (for changes in photosynthesis, biomass and lignin see Polle, McKee & Blaschke Plant, Cell and Environment 24, 1075–1083, 2001), N-, and S-metabolism soluble sugar, soluble non-proteinogenic nitrogen compounds (TSNN), nitrate reductase (NR), thiols, adenosine 5′-phosphosulphate (APS) reductase, and anions were analysed. For this purpose Q. ilex seedlings were grown from acorns of mother tree stands at a natural spring site (elevated pCO2) and a control site (ambient pCO2) of the Laiatico spring, Central Italy. Short-term elevated pCO2 exposure of the offspring of control oaks lead to higher sugar contents in stem tissues, to a reduced TSNN content in leaves, and basipetal stem tissues, to diminished thiol contents in all tissues analysed, and to reduced APS reductase activity in both, leaves and roots. Most of the components of C-, N- and S-metabolism including APS reductase activity which were reduced due to short-term elevated pCO2 exposure were recovered by life-long growth under elevated pCO2 in the offspring of spring oaks. Still TSNN contents in phloem exudates increased, nitrate contents in lateral roots and glutathione in leaves and phloem exudates remained reduced in these plants. The present results demonstrated that metabolic adaptations of Q. ilex mother trees to elevated pCO2 can be passed to the next generation. Short- and long-term effects on source-to-sink relation and physiological and genetic acclimation to elevated pCO2 are discussed.

Nitrogen dioxide exposures among a selected group of residents of substandard housing in Houston, Texas

Nitrogen dioxide (NO$\sb2)$ levels in sixteen substandard houses located in Houston, Texas were examined. The classification of the houses as substandard was based on an assessment of structural integrity which would affect air exchange rates. In these homes, unvented gas space heaters were operated as the primary source of heat.^ The Ogawa passive sampling device was used to measure NO$\sb2$ concentrations over 24 to 48-hour periods during generally cold weather. A sampler was placed in the kitchen and bedroom of each house. The female head of household was asked to wear a monitor during area monitoring to assess her personal exposure. Outdoor levels of NO$\sb2$ were also measured.^ Mean (standard deviation) levels of kitchen, bedroom and personal exposures were 280 (125) ppb, 256 (155) ppb and 164 (102) ppb, respectively. Additional short-term ($<$24 hours) samples were measured in three houses. The mean level of NO$\sb2$ measured outdoors was 51 ppb over the course of the study.^ The measurements obtained with the Ogawa sampler were compared to those levels obtained using a reference method (chemiluminescence). Outdoor levels measured with the diffusion samplers were 48% higher.^ These results suggest that wintertime NO$\sb2$ levels within substandard houses using gas appliances for heating and cooking are extremely elevated. Further work is needed to investigate the prevalence of possible health effects associated with these exposures. ^