Comparison of application of the ACC/AHA guidelines, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and European Society of Cardiology guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention in a European cohort.

IMPORTANCE: The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines introduced a prediction model and lowered the threshold for treatment with statins to a 7.5% 10-year hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Implications of the new guideline's threshold and model have not been addressed in non-US populations or compared with previous guidelines. OBJECTIVE: To determine population-wide implications of the ACC/AHA, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III), and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines using a cohort of Dutch individuals aged 55 years or older. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We included 4854 Rotterdam Study participants recruited in 1997-2001. We calculated 10-year risks for "hard" ASCVD events (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) (ACC/AHA), hard CHD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD mortality) (ATP-III), and atherosclerotic CVD mortality (ESC). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Events were assessed until January 1, 2012. Per guideline, we calculated proportions of individuals for whom statins would be recommended and determined calibration and discrimination of risk models. RESULTS: The mean age was 65.5 (SD, 5.2) years. Statins would be recommended for 96.4% (95% CI, 95.4%-97.1%; n = 1825) of men and 65.8% (95% CI, 63.8%-67.7%; n = 1523) of women by the ACC/AHA, 52.0% (95% CI, 49.8%-54.3%; n = 985) of men and 35.5% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.5%; n = 821) of women by the ATP-III, and 66.1% (95% CI, 64.0%-68.3%; n = 1253) of men and 39.1% (95% CI, 37.1%-41.2%; n = 906) of women by ESC guidelines. With the ACC/AHA model, average predicted risk vs observed cumulative incidence of hard ASCVD events was 21.5% (95% CI, 20.9%-22.1%) vs 12.7% (95% CI, 11.1%-14.5%) for men (192 events) and 11.6% (95% CI, 11.2%-12.0%) vs 7.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-9.2%) for women (151 events). Similar overestimation occurred with the ATP-III model (98 events in men and 62 events in women) and ESC model (50 events in men and 37 events in women). The C statistic was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71) in men and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) in women for hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in men and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in women for hard CHD (ATP-III), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) in men and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) in women for CVD mortality (ESC). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this European population aged 55 years or older, proportions of individuals eligible for statins differed substantially among the guidelines. The ACC/AHA guideline would recommend statins for nearly all men and two-thirds of women, proportions exceeding those with the ATP-III or ESC guidelines. All 3 risk models provided poor calibration and moderate to good discrimination. Improving risk predictions and setting appropriate population-wide thresholds are necessary to facilitate better clinical decision making.

Cyclooxygenase-2 in human and experimental ischemic proliferative retinopathy.

BACKGROUND: Intravitreal neovascular diseases, as in ischemic retinopathies, are a major cause of blindness. Because inflammatory mechanisms influence vitreal neovascularization and cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 promotes tumor angiogenesis, we investigated the role of COX-2 in ischemic proliferative retinopathy. METHODS AND RESULTS: We describe here that COX-2 is induced in retinal astrocytes in human diabetic retinopathy, in the murine and rat model of ischemic proliferative retinopathy in vivo, and in hypoxic astrocytes in vitro. Specific COX-2 but not COX-1 inhibitors prevented intravitreal neovascularization, whereas prostaglandin E2, mainly via its prostaglandin E receptor 3 (EP3), exacerbated neovascularization. COX-2 inhibition induced an upregulation of thrombospondin-1 and its CD36 receptor, consistent with the observed antiangiogenic effects of COX-2 inhibition; EP3 stimulation reversed effects of COX-2 inhibitors on thrombospondin-1 and CD36. CONCLUSIONS: These findings point to an important role for COX-2 in ischemic proliferative retinopathy, as in diabetes.

Magma generation at the easternmost section of the Hellenic arc: Hf, Nd, Pb and Sr isotope geochemistry of Nisyros and Yali volcanoes (Greece)

Geochemical and petrographical studies of lavas and ignimbrites from the Quaternary Nisyros-Yali volcanic system in the easternmost part of the Hellenic arc (Greece) reveal insight into magma generating processes. A compositional gap between 61 and 68 wt.% SiO2 is recognized that coincides with the stratigraphic distinction between pre-caldera and postcaldera volcanic units. Trace element systematics support the subdivision of Nisyros and Yali volcanic units into two distinct suites of rocks. The variation of Nd and Hf present day isotope data and the fact that they are distinct from the isotope compositions of MORB rule out an origin by pure differentiation and require assimilation of a crustal component. Lead isotope ratios of Nisyros and Yali volcanic rocks support mixing of mantle material with a lower crust equivalent. However, Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios of 0.7036-0.7048 are incompatible with a simple binary mixing scenario and give low depleted mantle extraction ages (< 0.1 Ga), in contrast with Pb model ages of 0.3 Ga and Hf and Nd model ages of ca. 0.8 Ga. The budget of fluid-mobile elements Sr and Pb is likely to be dominated by abundant hydrous fluids characterised by mantle-like Sr isotope ratios. Late stage fluids probably were enriched in CO2, needed to explain the high Th concentrations. The occurrence of hydrated minerals (e.g., amphibole) in the first post-caldera unit with the lowermost Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio of 0.7036 +/- 2 can be interpreted as the result of the increased water activity in the source. The presence of two different plagioclase phenocryst generations in the first lava subsequent to the caldera-causing event is indicative for a longer storage time of this magma at a shallower level. A model capable of explaining these observations involves three evolutionary stages. First stage, assimilation of lower crustal material by a primitive magma of mantle origin (as modelled by Nd-Hf isotope systematics). This stage ended by an interruption in replenishment that led to an increase of crystallization and, hence, an increase in viscosity, suppressing eruption. During this time gap, differentiation by fractional crystallization led to enrichment of incompatible species, especially aqueous fluids, to silica depolymerisation and to a decrease in viscosity, finally enabling eruption again in the third stage. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

The role of nonhematopoietic MHC class II expression in immune responses and tolerance

Si les rôles fonctionnels de diverses cellules immunitaires infiltrant des tissus enflammés sont assez bien compris, par contre, étonnamment, on connaît bien moins la capacité des cellules non hématopoïétiques résidant dans des tissus, à moduler l'activité biologique des cellules immunitaires immigrantes, et donc le résultat de la réponse immunitaire. La présentation des antigènes, dans le contexte des molécules du CMH de classe II (CMHII) à la surface des cellules présentatrices d'antigènes (CPA) professionnelles à une sous- population de lymphocytes T, est cruciale pour le développement des réponses immunitaires protectives spécifiques de l'antigène. En général, l'expression de CMHII est réservée aux CPAs. Toutefois, au cours des pathologies inflammatoires spécifiques d'organe, telles que l'auto-immunité ou la maladie inflammatoire de l'intestin, l'expression de CMHII est également induite par la cytokine interféron (IFN)-y sur des cellules non hématopoïétiques qui résident dans des tissus enflammés. Les conséquences de ce phénomène sont encore peu comprises. Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé une souche de souris génétiquement modifiées, qui n'a pas la capacité d'induire l'expression de CMHII sur les cellules non hématopoïétiques, mais a maintenu la régulation normale d'expression de CMHII sur les cellules hématopoïétiques. Nous avons appliqué ces souris à différents modèles d'inflammation intestinale et à un modèle de maladie qui imite la maladie auto-immune de l'inflammation du muscle cardiaque (myocardite) chez l'homme. Nous avons pu montrer que, au cours de l'inflammation intestinale, l'expression du CMHII nonhématopoïétique, ou encore l'expression du CMHII par les cellules épithéliales de l'intestin, confère une protection contre la maladie, en réduisant les cellules immunitaires inflammatoires et en augmentant les cellules Τ régulatrices anti-inflammatoires. Ces résultats pourraient expliquer l'échec des traitements d'anti-IFN-γ dans les maladies intestinales inflammatoires chez l'homme. En revanche, dans la myocardite auto-immune, nos résultats indiquent que la présentation d'antigènes par les cellules non hématopoïétiques du coeur est nécessaire pour l'apparition de la pathologie cardiaque, comme nos souris sont résistantes à la maladie. Toutefois, cela n'est pas dû à un défaut d'activation des lymphocytes T, car les lymphocytes Τ des souris mutantes sont parfaitement capables de promouvoir la maladie après le transfert adoptif dans des animaux de type naturel. Nos résultats suggèrent que, durant les maladies inflammatoires spécifiques d'organe, la présentation d'antigène par des cellules non hématopoïétiques module et contribue au résultat de la réponse immunitaire d'une manière opposée, conférant soit la protection contre la maladie ou sa promotion. Nos résultats pourraient ouvrir la voie à des thérapies qui prennent en compte la contribution de la présentation d'antigènes par les cellules non hématopoïétiques, au cours des maladies inflammatoires spécifiques d'organe. - Les molécules du CMH de classe II (CMHII) sont fondamentales pour la présentation des antigènes aux lymphocytes Τ CD4+, car elles permettent le développement des réponses immunitaires spécifiques de l'antigène. Il est largement admis que l'expression de CMHII est réservée aux cellules présentatrices d'antigènes (CPA). Cependant, dans des conditions inflammatoires, l'expression de CMHII est en principe également induite par l'interféron (IFN)-y sur les cellules non hématopoïétiques, telles que les cellules épithéliales et les cardiomyocytes. Une controverse existe jusqu'à présent au sujet de la fonction de cette présentation d'antigènes non professionnelle, pour savoir si elle favorise la tolérance ou l'immunité dépendante des lymphocytes Τ in vivo. Pour répondre à cette question, nous avons testé des souris qui ne sont pas capables d'induire l'expression du CMHII sur les cellules non hématopoïétiques (souris PIV-/- K14 CIITA Tg) parmi différents modèles murins de pathologies inflammatoires, à savoir les modèles de vaccination pour induire des réponses spécifiques d'antigènes des lymphocytes B, plusieurs modèles de colite et un modèle de myocardite auto-immune expérimental (EAM). Pour cela, nous avons administré à ces souris un modèle de colite atténuée, induite par une infection chronique à Helicobacter hepaticus et par l'administration d'anticorps monoclonaux bloquant le récepteur de l'interleukine (IL)-10 (anti-IL-10R). Dans ce système, nous avons pu observer que l'expression abrogée de CMHII a aggravé la colite bactérienne, soit par les cellules non hématopoïétiques, soit exclusivement par les cellules épithéliales intestinales (CEI) dans un autre modèle murin (souris plV_fl/fl vil-Cre Tg). Ce phénotype du côlon a été associé à une augmentation des fréquences de cellules immunitaires innées, de lymphocytes Th1 CD4+, et d'expression des cytokines et de chimiokines pro-inflammatoires, y compris l'IFN-γ. Notamment, l'expression défectueuse de CMHII non hématopoïétique a également réduit les cellules Τ régulatrices (Treg) Forkhead box P3 (FoxP3)+, sans influencer les fréquences des cellules innées lymphoïdes et des cellules Th17. Ces résultats suggèrent un rôle tolérogène de CEIs CMHII+ qui contribue à l'homéostasie immunitaire intestinale. En revanche, dans le modèle d'EAM, les souris ayant subi une ablation de CMHII non hématopoïétique étaient résistantes à l'induction de la maladie, alors que la progression de la pathologie cardiaque, dans les souris de type naturel ou hétérozygotes, a été accompagnée par une régulation positive de l'expression de CMHII du myocarde. Cependant, l'inflammation cardiaque pourrait être transférée de manière adoptive depuis des souris amorcées PIV-/- K14 CIITA Tg vers des souris de type naturel, indiquant l'absence de défaut intrinsèque d'amorçage des cellules T CD4+ dans notre modèle de souris. Ces observations impliquent un rôle à jouer pour des cellules CMHII+ non hématopoïétiques résidentes du coeur, dans la promotion active de ΙΈΑΜ. En conclusion, nos résultats, provenant de diverses pathologies inflammatoires spécifiques d'organes, suggèrent un rôle complexe et divergent, soit tolérogène, soit immunogène/ pathologique, pour l'expression de CMHII non hématopoïétique au cours des pathologies inflammatoires. L'expression non professionnelle de CMHII semble influencer le résultat des réponses immunitaires en fonction de différents facteurs, tels que le tissu cible, le(s) type(s) de cellule(s) non hématopoïétique(s) participante(s) et l'origine de l'inflammation. Nos résultats pourraient potentiellement ouvrir la voie à des applications thérapeutiques, qui tiennent compte de la contribution de la présentation d'antigènes par des CPAs non professionnelles, au cours de l'inflammation spécifique d'organe. - MHC class II (MHCII) molecules are fundamental for the presentation of antigens to CD4+ Τ cells, allowing the development of antigen-specific immune responses. It is widely accepted that MHCII expression is restricted to antigen-presenting cells (APC). However, under inflammatory conditions, MHCII expression is typically also induced by interferon (IFN)-y on nonhematopoietic cells such as epithelial cells and cardiomyocytes. So far, it remains controversial whether this nonprofessional antigen-presentation function promotes CD4+ Τ cell-dependent tolerance or immunity in vivo. To address this issue, we utilised mice which lack inducible MHCII expression on nonhematopoietic cells (pIV-/- K14 CIITA Tg mice) in different mouse models of inflammatory pathologies, namely immunisation models to induce antigen-specific Β cell responses, various colitis models and a model of experimental autoimmune myocarditis (EAM). In an attenuated model of colitis induced by chronic Helicobacter hepaticus infection and treatment with anti-interleukin (IL)-10 receptor (anti-IL-10R) monoclonal blocking antibody, we observed that abrogated MHCII expression by nonhematopoietic cells or, in an alternative tamoxifen-inducible mouse model (plV_fl/fl vil-Cre Tg mice), exclusively by intestinal epithelial cells (IEC), exacerbated bacterial-driven colitis, which was associated with increased colonic frequencies of innate immune cells, CD4+ Th1 cells and expression of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines, including IFN-γ. Notably, defective nonhematopoietic MHCII expression also resulted in reduced Forkhead box P3 (FoxP3)+ regulatory Τ (Treg) cells without influencing innate lymphoid cell (ILC) and Th17 cell frequencies. These findings suggest a tolerogenic role of MHClT lECs to contribute to intestinal immune homeostasis. In contrast, in the EAM model, mice ablated of nonhematopoietic MHCII were resistant to disease induction, whereas progression of cardiac pathology in WT and heterozygous control mice was accompanied by upregulation of myocardial MHCII expression. However, cardiac inflammation could be adoptively transferred from primed pIV-/- K14 CIITA Tg mice into WT mice, indicating no intrinsic defect of CD4+ Τ activation in our mouse model. These observations imply a role for MHCIT heart-resident nonhematopoietic cells in actively promoting EAM. In conclusion, our findings from different organ-specific inflammatory pathologies suggest a complex and diverging role - either tolerogenic or immunogenic/ pathologic - for nonhematopoietic MHCII expression during inflammatory pathologies: Nonprofessional MHCII expression appears to influence the outcome of immune responses depending on 7 factors such as the target tissue, participating non hematopoietic cell type(s) and the origin of inflammation. Our findings may potentially open the way to therapeutic applications taking into account the contribution of antigen presentation by nonprofessional, tissue-resident APCs during organ-specific inflammation.

Metabolomic insights into the intricate gut microbial-host interaction in the development of obesity and type 2 diabetes.

Gut microbiota has recently been proposed as a crucial environmental factor in the development of metabolic diseases such as obesity and type 2 diabetes, mainly due to its contribution in the modulation of several processes including host energy metabolism, gut epithelial permeability, gut peptide hormone secretion, and host inflammatory state. Since the symbiotic interaction between the gut microbiota and the host is essentially reflected in specific metabolic signatures, much expectation is placed on the application of metabolomic approaches to unveil the key mechanisms linking the gut microbiota composition and activity with disease development. The present review aims to summarize the gut microbial-host co-metabolites identified so far by targeted and untargeted metabolomic studies in humans, in association with impaired glucose homeostasis and/or obesity. An alteration of the co-metabolism of bile acids, branched fatty acids, choline, vitamins (i.e., niacin), purines, and phenolic compounds has been associated so far with the obese or diabese phenotype, in respect to healthy controls. Furthermore, anti-diabetic treatments such as metformin and sulfonylurea have been observed to modulate the gut microbiota or at least their metabolic profiles, thereby potentially affecting insulin resistance through indirect mechanisms still unknown. Despite the scarcity of the metabolomic studies currently available on the microbial-host crosstalk, the data-driven results largely confirmed findings independently obtained from in vitro and animal model studies, putting forward the mechanisms underlying the implication of a dysfunctional gut microbiota in the development of metabolic disorders.

From print to screen: changes and challenges facing the Brazilian publishing industry

The publishing industry is at a turning point. Facing the first major disruptive innovation in five centuries, its long-established structure and business model are at stake. Building on literature based on the pitfalls for incumbents, we interviewed key executives from the major publishers in Brazil to understand their perspective. We find that not only are they facing those pitfalls, but we also propose a new one, The Industry View Trap, concerning challenges created by convergence, the difficulty to deal with changes in the ecosystem and the fact that the very definition of the industry you're part of might have changed.

Forensic intelligence framework. Part II: study of the main generic building blocks and challenges through the examples of illicit drugs and false identity documents monitoring

The development of forensic intelligence relies on the expression of suitable models that better represent the contribution of forensic intelligence in relation to the criminal justice system, policing and security. Such models assist in comparing and evaluating methods and new technologies, provide transparency and foster the development of new applications. Interestingly, strong similarities between two separate projects focusing on specific forensic science areas were recently observed. These observations have led to the induction of a general model (Part I) that could guide the use of any forensic science case data in an intelligence perspective. The present article builds upon this general approach by focusing on decisional and organisational issues. The article investigates the comparison process and evaluation system that lay at the heart of the forensic intelligence framework, advocating scientific decision criteria and a structured but flexible and dynamic architecture. These building blocks are crucial and clearly lay within the expertise of forensic scientists. However, it is only part of the problem. Forensic intelligence includes other blocks with their respective interactions, decision points and tensions (e.g. regarding how to guide detection and how to integrate forensic information with other information). Formalising these blocks identifies many questions and potential answers. Addressing these questions is essential for the progress of the discipline. Such a process requires clarifying the role and place of the forensic scientist within the whole process and their relationship to other stakeholders.

Wage rigidity and job creation

Recent research in macroeconomics emphasizes the role of wage rigidity in accounting for the volatility of unemployment fluctuations. We use worker-level datafrom the CPS to measure the sensitivity of wages of newly hired workers to changesin aggregate labor market conditions. The wage of new hires, unlike the aggregatewage, is volatile and responds almost one-to-one to changes in labor productivity.We conclude that there is little evidence for wage stickiness in the data. We alsoshow, however, that a little wage rigidity goes a long way in amplifying the responseof job creation to productivity shocks.

Competitive location and pricing on networks

In this paper we consider a location and pricing model for a retail firm that wants to enter a spatial market where a competitor firm is already operating as a monopoly with several outlets. The entering firms seeks to determine the optimal uniform mill price and its servers' locations that maximizes profits given the reaction in price of the competitor firm to its entrance. A tabu search procedure is presentedto solve the model together with computational experience.

The optimum quantity of money: Theory and evidence

In this paper we propose a simple and general model for computing the Ramsey optimal inflation tax, which includes several models from the previous literature as special cases. We show that it cannot be claimed that the Friedman rule is always optimal (or always non--optimal) on theoretical grounds. The Friedman rule is optimal or not, depending on conditions related to the shape of various relevant functions. One contribution of this paper is to relate these conditions to {\it measurable} variables such as the interest rate or the consumption elasticity of money demand. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money when there are economies of scale in the demand for money (the scale elasticity is smaller than one) and/or when money is required for the payment of consumption or wage taxes. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money more heavily when the interest elasticity of money demand is small. We present empirical evidence on the parameters that determine the optimal inflation tax. Calibrating the model to a variety of empirical studies yields a optimal nominal interest rate of less than 1\%/year, although that finding is sensitive to the calibration.

Comment on "Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of the Samothraki mafic suite, NE Greece: Trace-element, isotopic and zircon age constraints'' by N. Koglin, D. Kostopoulos & T. Reischmann [Tectonophysics 473, 53-68 (doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2008.10.028)]

The work by Koglin et al. (Koglin, N., Kostopoulos, D., Reichmann, T., 2009. Geochemistry, petrogenesis and tectonic setting of the Samothraki mafic Suite, NE Greece: Trace-element, isotopic and zircon age constraints. Tectonophysics 473, 53-68. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2008.10.028), where the authors have proposed to nullify the scenario presented by Bonev and Stampfli (Bonev, N., Stampfli, G., 2008. Petrology, geochemistry and geodynamic implications of Jurassic island arc magmatism as revealed by mafic volcanic rocks in the Mesozoic low-grade sequence, eastern Rhodope, Bulgaria. Lithos 100, 210-233) is here Put under discussion. The arguments for this proposal are reviewed in the light of available stratigraphic and radiometric age constraints, geochemical signature and tectonics of highly relevant Jurassic ophiolitic suites occurring immediately north of the Samothraki mafic suite. Our conclusion is that the weak arguments and the lack of knowledge on the relevant constraints from the regional geologic information make inconsistent the Proposal and the model of these authors. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We findthat the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices.

Canine distemper virus : persistence and pathology in the central nervous system

Résumé : Le virus de la maladie de Carré (en anglais: canine distemper virus, CDV) qui est pathogène pour les chiens et autres carnivores, est très semblable au virus de la rougeole humaine (en anglais MV). Ces deux virus font partie du genre des Morbillivirus qui appartient à la famille des Paramyxoviridae. Ils induisent des complications dans le système nerveux central (SNC). Au stade précoce et aigu de l'infection du SNC, le CDV induit une démyélinisation (1). Ce stade évolue dans certains cas vers une infection chronique avec progression de la démyélinisation. Pendant le stade précoce, qui suit en général de trois semaines les premiers symptômes, le processus de démyélinisation est associé à la réplication du virus et n'est pas considéré comme inflammatoire (1). Par contre, au stade chronique, la progression des plaques de démyélinisation semble être plutôt liée à des processus immunogènes caractéristiques (2), retrouvés également dans la sclérose en plaques (SEP) chez les humains. Pour cette raison, le CDV est considéré comme un modèle pour la SEP humaine et aussi pour l'étude des maladies et complications induites par les Morbillivirus en général (3). Dans notre laboratoire, nous avons utilisé la souche A75/17-CDV, qui est considérée comme le modèle des souches neurovirulentes de CDV. Nous avons cherché en premier lieu à établir un système robuste pour infecter des cultures neuronales avec le CDV. Nous avons choisi les cultures primaires de l'hippocampe du nouveau-né de rat (4), que nous avons ensuite infecté avec une version modifiée du A75/17, appelée rgA75/17-V (5). Dans ces cultures, nous avons prouvé que le CDV infecte des neurones et des astrocytes. Malgré une infection qui se diffuse lentement entre les cellules, cette infection cause une mort massive aussi bien des neurones infectés que non infectés. En parallèle, les astrocytes perdent leur morphologie de type étoilé pour un type polygonal. Finalment, nous avons trouvé une augmentation importante de la concentration en glutamate dans le milieu de culture, qui laisse présumer une sécrétion de glutamate par les cultures infectées (6). Nous avons ensuite étudié le mécanisme des effets cytopathiques induits par le CDV. Nous avons d'abord démontré que les glycoprotéines de surface F et H du CDV s'accumulent massivement dans le réticulum endoplasmique (RE). Cette accumulation déclenche un stress du RE, qui est caractérisé par une forte expression du facteur de transcription proapoptotique CHOP/GADD 153 et de le la calreticuline (CRT). La CRT est une protéine chaperonne localisée dans le RE et impliquée dans l'homéostasie du calcium (Ca2+) et dans le repliement des protéines. En transfectant des cellules de Vero avec des plasmides codant pour plusieurs mutants de la glycoprotéine F de CDV, nous avons démontré une corrélation entre l'accumulation des protéines virales dans le RE et l'augmentation de l'expression de CRT, le stress du RE et la perte de l'homéostasie du Ca2+. Nous avons obtenu des résultats semblables avec des cultures de cellules primaires de cerveau de rat. Ces résultats suggèrent que la CRT joue un rôle crucial dans les phénomènes neurodégénératifs pendant l'infection du SNC, notamment par le relazgage du glutamate via le Ca2+. De manière intéressante, nous démontrons également que l'infection de CDV induit une fragmentation atypique de la CRT. Cette fragmentation induit une re-localisation et une exposition sélective de fragments amino-terminaux de la CRT, connus pour êtres fortement immunogènes à la surface des cellules infectées et non infectées. A partir de ce résultat et des résultats précédents, nous proposons le mécanisme suivant: après l'infection par le CDV, la rétention dans le RE des protéines F et H provoque un stress du RE et une perte de l'homéostasie du Ca2+. Ceci induit la libération du glutamate, qui cause une dégénération rapide du SNC (sur plusieurs jours ou semaines) correspondant à la phase aiguë de la maladie chez le chien. En revanche, les fragments amino-terminaux de la CRT libérés à la surface des cellules infectées peuvent avoir un rôle important dans l'établissement d'une démyélinisation d'origine immunogène, typique de la phase chronique de l'infection de CDV. Summary : The dog pathogen canine distemper virus (CDV), closely related to the human pathogen measles virus (MV), belongs to the Morbillivirus genus of the Paramyxoviridae family. Both CDV and NIV induce complications in the central nervous system (CNS). In the acute early stage of the infection in CNS, the CDV infection induces demyelination. This stage is sometimes followed by a late persistent stage of infection with a progression of the demyelinating lesions (1). The acute early stage occurs around three weeks after the infection and demyelinating processes are associated with active virus replication and are not associated to inflammation (1). In contrast during late persistent stage, the demyelination plaque progression seems to be mainly due to an immunopathological process (2), which characteristics are shared in many aspects with the human disease multiple sclerosis (MS). For these reasons, CDV is considered as a model for human multiple sclerosis, as well as for the study of Morbillivirus-mediated pathogenesis (3). In our laboratory, we used the A75/17-CDV strain that is considered to be the prototype of neurovirulent CDV strain. We first sought to establish a well characterized and robust model for CDV infection of a neuronal culture. We chose primary cultures from newborn rat hippocampes (4) that we infected with a modified version of A75/17, called rgA75/17-V (5). In these cultures, we showed that CDV infects both neurons and astrocytes. While the infection spreads only slowly to neighbouring cells, it causes a massive death of neurons, which includes also non-infected neurons. In parallel, astrocytes undergo morphological changes from the stellate type to the polygonal type. The pharmacological blocking of the glutamate receptors revealed an implication of glutamatergic signalling in the virus-mediated cytopathic effect. Finally, we found a drastic increase concentration of glutamate in the culture medium, suggesting that glutamate was released from the cultured cells (6). We further studied the mechanism of the CDV-induced cytopathic effects. We first demonstrated that the CDV surface glycoprotein F and H markedly accumulate in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). This accumulation triggers an ER stress, which is characterized by increased expression of the proapoptotic transcription factor CHOP/GADD 153 and calreticulin (CRT). CRT is an ER resident chaperon involved in the Ca2+ homeostasis and in the response to misfolded proteins. Transfections of Vero cells with plasmids encoding various CDV glycoprotein mutants reveal a correlation between accumulation of viral proteins in the ER, CRT overexpression, ER stress and alteration of ER Ca2+ homeostasis. Importantly, similar results are also obtained in primary cell cultures from rat brain. These results suggest that CRT plays a crucial role in CNS infection, particularly due to CRT involvement in Ca2+ mediated glutamate releases, and subsequent neurodegenerative disorders. Very intriguingly, we also demonstrated that CDV infection induces an atypical CRT fragmentation, with relocalisation and selective exposure of the highly immunogenic CRT N-terminal fragments at the surface of infected and neighbouring non-infected cells. Altogether our results combined with previous findings suggest the following scenario. After CDV infection, F and H retention alter Ca2+ homeostasis, and induce glutamate release, which in turn causes rapid CNS degeneration (within days or a week) corresponding to the acute phase of the disease in dogs. In contrast, the CRT N-terminal fragments released at the surface of infected cells may rather have an important role in the establishment of the autoimmune demyelination in the late stage of CDV infection.