A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability

We construct a two-variable model which describes the interaction between local baroclinicity and eddy heat flux in order to understand aspects of the variance in storm tracks. It is a heuristic model for diabatically forced baroclinic instability close to baroclinic neutrality. The two-variable model has the structure of a nonlinear oscillator. It exhibits some realistic properties of observed storm track variability, most notably the intermittent nature of eddy activity. This suggests that apparent threshold behaviour can be more accurately and succinctly described by a simple nonlinearity. An analogy is drawn with triggering of convective events.

An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

The lifecycle of the North Atlantic storm track

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet exhibits latitudinal variability, with evidence of three preferred latitudinal locations: south, middle and north. Here we examine the drivers of this variability and the variability of the associated storm track. We investigate the changes in the storm track characteristics for the three jet locations, and propose a mechanism by which enhanced storm track activity, as measured by upstream heat flux, is responsible for cyclical downstream latitudinal shifts in the jet. This mechanism is based on a nonlinear oscillator relationship between the enhanced meridional temperature gradient (and thus baroclinicity) and the meridional high-frequency (periods of shorter than 10 days) eddy heat flux. Such oscillations in baroclinicity and heat flux induce variability in eddy anisotropy which is associated with the changes in the dominant type of wave breaking and a different latitudinal deflection of the jet. Our results suggest that high heat flux is conducive to a northward deflection of the jet, whereas low heat flux is conducive to a more zonal jet. This jet deflecting effect was found to operate most prominently downstream of the storm track maximum, while the storm track and the jet remain anchored at a fixed latitudinal location at the beginning of the storm track. These cyclical changes in storm track characteristics can be viewed as different stages of the storm track’s spatio-temporal lifecycle.

On the clustering of winter storm loss events over Germany

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series for Germany are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Two reanalysis data sets and observations from German weather stations are considered for 30 winters. Histograms of events exceeding selected return levels (1-, 2- and 5-year) are derived. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Over 4000 years of general circulation model (GCM) simulations forced with current climate conditions are analysed to provide a better assessment of historical return periods. Estimations differ between distributions, for example 40 to 65 years for the 1990 series. For such less frequent series, estimates obtained with the Poisson distribution clearly deviate from empirical data. The negative binomial distribution provides better estimates, even though a sensitivity to return level and data set is identified. The consideration of GCM data permits a strong reduction of uncertainties. The present results support the importance of considering explicitly clustering of losses for an adequate risk assessment for economical applications.

Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks

There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference.

Caught in the eye of the storm: a qualitative study of views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate in child and adolescent ADHD treatment

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) can be treated with stimulant medication such as methylphenidate. Although effective, methylphenidate can cause serious side-effects, including suppressed appetite, growth retardation and sleep problems. A drug holiday is a deliberate interruption of pharmacotherapy for a defined period of time and for a specific clinical purpose, for example for appeasing side-effects. Whilst some international guidelines recommend introducing drug holidays in ADHD treatment, this is not practised routinely. Our aim was to examine the views and experiences of planned drug holidays from methylphenidate with adults who have responsibility for treatment decisions in children and adolescents with ADHD. Method: In-depth interviews were carried out. Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) practitioners (n=8), General Practitioners (n=8), teachers (n=5), and mothers of children with ADHD (n=4) were interviewed in a UK setting. Interview transcripts were analysed using grounded theory. Results: Methylphenidate eases the experience of the child amid problems at home and at school and once started is mostly continued long-term. Some families do practise short-term drug holidays at weekends and longer-term ones during school holidays. The decision to introduce drug holidays is influenced by the child’s academic progress, the parents’ ability to cope with the child, as well as medication beliefs. Trialling a drug holiday is thought to allow older children to self-assess their ability to manage without medication when they show signs of wanting to discontinue treatment prematurely. Conclusions: Planned drug holidays could address premature treatment cessation by enabling adolescents to assess repercussions under medical supervision.

Climatology, storm morphologies, and environments of tornadoes in the British Isles: 1980–2012

A climatology is developed for tornadoes during 1980–2012 in the British Isles, defined in this article as England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and the Isle of Man. The climatology includes parent storm type, interannual variability, annual and diurnal cycles, intensities, oc- currence of outbreaks (defined as three or more tornadoes in the same day), geographic distribution, and environmental conditions derived from proximity soundings of tornadoes. Tornado reports are from the Tornado and Storm Research Organization (TORRO). Over the 33 years, there were a mean of 34.3 tor- nadoes and 19.5 tornado days (number of days in which at least one tornado occurred) annually. Tornadoes and tornado outbreaks were most commonly produced from linear storms, defined as radar signatures at least 75 km long and approximately 3 times as long as wide. Most (78%) tornadoes occurred in England. The probability of a tornado within 10 km of a point was highest in the south, southeast, and west of England. On average, there were 2.5 tornado outbreaks every year. Where intensity was known, 95% of tornadoes were classified as F0 or F1 with the remainder classified as F2. There were no tornadoes rated F3 or greater during this time period. Tornadoes occurred throughout the year with a maximum from May through October. Finally, tornadoes tended to occur in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Tornadoes in the British Isles were difficult to predict using only sounding-derived parameters because there were no clear thresholds between null, tornadic, outbreak, and significant tornado cases.

Dyrbara experimenter : Införandet av modernare gatubelysning i Falu stad 1863-1888

Syftet med uppsatsen är att belysa en aspekt av Faluns omvandling till modern stad. Den del i denna modernisering som vidrörs i uppsatsen är införandet av elektrisk gatubelysning. Frågeställningarna i uppsatsen rör diskussionen som föregicks i stadsförvaltningen då man införde elektrisk gatubelysning i Falun och anledningarna till införandet av elektrisk belysning. Materialet som har använts för undersökningen är protokoll från stadsfullmäktige och drätselkammare i Falun under perioden 1863-1888. Gatubelysningen i Falun har sedan 1849 varit i stadsförvaltningens regi. Flera olika metoder av gatubelysning har sedan dess tillämpats och ännu fler metoder har diskuterats men aldrig kommit till stånd. Denna uppsats rör också anledningarna till gatubelysning i Falun vilka var flera utöver att få gatorna belysta för nattvandrarna. Stävjandet av brottsligheten var en av dem, estetiken en annan men även ett självändamål tycks också skönjbart. Byggandet av den moderna staden krävde moderna metoder och material. Elektriciteten som metod för belysning av gator var i högsta grad modernt och Falun var bland de första städerna som antog elektrisk gatubelysning i Sverige.

Comparação entre os métodos de coloração panótico rápido e giemsa para o diagnóstico de protozoários do gênero Babesia (Starcovici, 1893) e de riquétsias do gênero Ehrlichia (Ehrlich, 1888) em cães (Canis familiaris) no município de Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil.

O trabalho realizado determinou a freqüência dos gêneros Babesia e Ehrlichia, em 250 caninos com suspeita clínica de hemoparasitose, atendidos no Hospital de Clínicas Veterinárias da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (HCV–UFRGS), clínicas e hospitais veterinários particulares. Foi analisada a influência da faixa etária e do gênero dos animais na positividade, assim como comparadas as colorações de Giemsa e Panótico Rápido. A pesquisa dos parasitas no sangue de caninos foi realizada através de esfregaços sangüíneos corados pelos métodos Giemsa e Panóptico Rápido. Das 250 amostras analisadas, 45 (18%) foram positivas para hemoparasitas, sendo que 7 (3%) eram animais com idade igual ou inferior a 1 ano (grupo I) e 38 (15%) animais a partir de 1 ano de idade (grupo II). O Teste Exato de Fisher aplicado aos dados revelou não haver diferença significativa entre os resultados encontrados nos animais do grupo I e do grupo II. A Odds ratio calculada para os dois grupos foi igual a 2,142. Os resultados obtidos através da metodologia proposta em função do gênero dos 250 animais pesquisados, envolveram 144 fêmeas, sendo 29 positivas e 106 machos, sendo 16 positivos. O Teste Exato de Fisher aplicado aos dados revelou também não haver diferença significativa entre os resultados encontrados entre machos e fêmeas de todas as idades. A Odds ratio calculada a partir dos dados encontrados foi igual a 0,7050. Em relação aos resultados obtidos com as colorações utilizadas, das 250 amostras analisadas, 26 amostras foram positivas com o kit Panótico Rápido, sendo 19 (7,6%) positivas para Ehrlichia spp e 7 (2,8%) para Babesia spp. Com a coloração de Giemsa, obteve-se 22 amostras positivas: 21 (8,4%) para Babesia spp e 1 (0,4%) para Ehrlichia spp. Apenas 3 amostras (1,2%) apresentaram-se positivas para Babesia spp nas duas colorações e nenhuma amostra foi positiva para Ehrlichia spp com as duas colorações. O teste de Mc Nemar aplicado a estes dados revelou que houve diferença significativa em relação às amostras positivas para Babesia spp pela coloração de Giemsa e pelo Panótico Rápido. A porcentagem de co-positividade e co-negatividade para as duas colorações foi de 14,3% e 98,2%, respectivamente, perfazendo uma porcentagem de concordância total de 91,2%, enquanto o valor Kappa calculado foi de 0,18. O teste de Mc Nemar apresentou uma diferença extremamente significativa nos esfregaços de animais positivos para Ehrlichia spp com as duas colorações utilizadas. A porcentagem de co-positividade e co-negatividade para as duas colorações foi de 0% e 92,3%, respectivamente, perfazendo uma porcentagem de concordância total de 92%, enquanto o valor Kappa calculado foi de 0 (zero). Com base nesses resultados, pode-se concluir que 18% dos animais analisados foram positivos para os hemoparasitos Babesia ou Ehrlichia e que tanto a variável gênero quanto a idade não apresentaram associação com a positividade. Além disso, o corante de Giemsa mostrou-se mais eficiente para o diagnóstico de babesiose canina, enquanto o kit Panótico Rápido foi mais eficiente para a detecção de erliquiose canina.

Um século de tradição: a banda de música do Colégio Salesiano de Santa Rosa (1888-1988)

A música nos colégios salesianos sempre ocupou um lugar de destaque, pois na pedagogiade Dom Bosco é considerada importante fator educativo, devido a seu grande poder deinfluência no espírito dos jovens. Para Dom Bosco, uma escola sem música é um corposem alma , afirmação que explicita o valor pedagógico da música. Ainda segundo ele, aalegria é o elemento básico da educação, e a música expressa esse estado da alma. Estetrabalho visa valorizar a Banda de Música do Colégio Salesiano Santa Rosa, de Niterói,RJ, em sua trajetória de mais de 100 anos de atividade ininterrupta, e resgatar umamemória que tende a se perder. A banda sempre esteve à frente das festas cívicas,contagiando o público com marchas e hinos patrióticos, comandando desfiles escolares,impondo sua cadência e expressando através da música o sentimento de sua comunidade.Esta pesquisa surgiu da observação de que os trabalhos sobre bandas tinham como pontoprincipal a questão do ensino musical, mas não o valor pedagógico da música. Tambémnada havia sido escrito sobre a Banda de Música do Colégio Salesiano Santa Rosa. Assim,por meio da documentação histórica e da memória como suportes de reconstrução dahistória dessa banda secular, este trabalho lança um novo olhar sobre o tema.

O papel do capital financeiro na emergência do modo de produção capitalista no Brasil (1888-1913): análise da economia política brasileira

Discutir o problema do capital financeiro na formação dos estágios iniciais do modo capitalista de produção no Brasil: eis a problemática que esta monografia se dispõe a enfocar. Discutir o capital financeiro é, paralelamente, discutir o Estado e o seu controle pelos diversos segmentos sociais que, frequentemente, possuem interesses antagônicos.