Region-wide changes in marine ecosystem dynamics: state-space models to distinguish trends from step changes

Regime shifts are sudden changes in ecosystem structure that can be detected across several ecosystem components. The concept that regime shifts are common in marine ecosystems has gained popularity in recent years. Many studies have searched for the step-like changes in ecosystem state expected under a simple interpretation of this idea. However, other kinds of change, such as pervasive trends, have often been ignored. We assembled over 300 ecological time series from seven UK marine regions, covering two to three decades. We developed state-space models for the first principal component of the time series in each region, a common measure of ecosystem state. Our models allowed both trends and step changes, possibly in combination. We found trends in three of seven regions and step changes in two of seven regions. Gradual and sudden changes are therefore important trajectories to consider in marine ecosystems.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

Finite-Element Time-Step Coupled Generator, Load, AVR and Brushless Exciter Modelling

This paper presented results from a details and comprehensive simulation using finite element method of the practical operation of an electrical machine. The results it displayed have been used in practice to design more efficient equipment.

Surface plasmon polariton propagation across a gentle silver step

Surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) are excited with light of wavelength lambda (1) = 632.8 nm on or near a gentle Ag/Ag step structure using focused beam, prism coupling and detected using a bare, sharpened fibre tip. The tip-sample separation is controlled by means of an evanescent optical field at wavelength lambda (2) = 543.5 nm in a photon scanning tunnelling microscope (PSTM). The SPP propagation properties are first characterised on both the thin and thick sections of the Ag film structure either side of the step, both macroscopically, using attenuated total reflection, and microscopically from the PSTM images; the two techniques yield very good agreement. It is found that the SPP propagation length is similar to 10-11 mum across the step in each direction (thick to thin and vice versa) as observed in the PSTM images. Thus, with reference to the propagation lengths of 14.2 and 11.7 mum for the thick and thin planar parts of the Ag film respectively, it is concluded that the SPPs negotiate the step reasonably successfully. Importantly, also, it is shown that images may be produced, displaying SPPs with either an artificially enhanced (similar to 15-20 mum) or truncated (5-8 mum) propagation length across the step. Consideration of such images leads us to suggest the possibility that the photon tunnelling occurs in a local water environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast heating of ultrahigh-density plasma as a step towards laser fusion ignition

ate studies(2) and fusion energy research(3,4). Laser-driven implosions of spherical polymer shells have, for example, achieved an increase in density of 1,000 times relative to the solid state(5). These densities are large enough to enable controlled fusion, but to achieve energy gain a small volume of compressed fuel (known as the 'spark') must be heated to temperatures of about 10(8) K (corresponding to thermal energies in excess of 10 keV). In the conventional approach to controlled fusion, the spark is both produced and heated by accurately timed shock waves(4), but this process requires both precise implosion symmetry and a very large drive energy. In principle, these requirements can be significantly relaxed by performing the compression and fast heating separately(6-10); however, this 'fast ignitor' approach(7) also suffers drawbacks, such as propagation losses and deflection of the ultra-intense laser pulse by the plasma surrounding the compressed fuel. Here we employ a new compression geometry that eliminates these problems; we combine production of compressed matter in a laser-driven implosion with picosecond-fast heating by a laser pulse timed to coincide with the peak compression. Our approach therefore permits efficient compression and heating to be carried out simultaneously, providing a route to efficient fusion energy production.

2D-drop model applied to the calculation of step formation energies on a (111) substrate

A model is presented for obtaining the step formation energy for metallic islands on (1 1 1) surfaces from Monte Carlo simulations. This model is applied to homo (Cu/Cu(1 1 1), Ag/Ag(1 1 1)) and heteroepitaxy (Ag/Pt(1 1 1)) systems. The embedded atom method is used to represent the interaction between the particles of the system, but any other type of potential could be used as well. The formulation can also be employed to consider the case of other single crystal surfaces, since the higher barriers for atom motion on other surfaces are not a hindrance for the simulation scheme proposed.

Rapid identification of precursor cDNAs encoding five structural classes of antimicrobial peptides from pickerel frog (Rana palustris) skin secretion by single step “shotgun” cloning.

The skin secretion of the North American pickerel frog (Rana palustris) has long been known to have pronounced noxious/toxic properties and to be highly effective in defence against predators and against other sympatric amphibians. As it consists largely of a complex mixture of peptides, it has been subjected to systematic peptidomic study but there has been little focus on molecular cloning of peptide-encoding cDNAs and by deduction, the biosynthetic precursors that they encode. Here, we demonstrate that the cDNAs encoding the five major structural families of antimicrobial peptides can be elucidated by a single step “shotgun” cloning approach using a cDNA library constructed from the source material of the peptidomic studies—the defensive skin secretion itself. Using a degenerate primer pool designed to a highly conserved nucleic acid sequence 5' to the initiation codon of known antimicrobial peptide precursor transcripts, we amplified cDNA sequences representing five major classes of antimicrobial peptides, such as esculentins, brevinins, ranatuerins, palustrins and temporins. Bioinformatic comparisons of precursor open-reading frames and nucleic acid sequences revealed high degrees of structural similarities between analogous peptides of R. palustris and the Chinese bamboo odorous frog, Rana versabilis. This approach thus constitutes a robust technique that can be used either alone or ideally, in parallel with peptidomic analysis of skin secretion, to rapidly extract primary structural information on amphibian skin secretion peptides and their biosynthetic precursors.

Double potential step chronoamperometry at microdisk electrodes: simulating the case of unequal diffusion coefficients

An efficient approach to the simulation of the double potential step chronoamperometry at a microdisk electrode based on an exponentially expanding time grid and conformal mapping of the space is presented. The dimensionless second potential step flux data are included as a function of the first potential step duration and the ratio of the diffusion coefficients of the reacting species allowing instant analysis of the experimental double potential step chronoamperograms without a need for simulation. The values of the diffusion coefficients are determined for several test systems and found to be in good agreement with existing literature data. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydroisomerisation of n-alkanes over partially reduced MoO3: Promotion by CoAlPO-11 and relations to reaction mechanism and rate-determining step

The reaction mechanism and the rate-determining step (RDS) of the isomerisation of n-alkanes (C-4-C-6) over partially reduced MoO3 catalysts were studied through the effects of the addition of an alkene isomerisation catalyst (i.e. CoAlPO- 11). When an acidic CoAlPO- 11 sample was mechanically mixed with the MoO3, a decrease of the induction period and an increase of the steady-state conversion of n-butane to isobutane were observed. These data support previous assumptions that a bifunctional mechanism occurred over the partially reduced MoO3 (a complex nanoscale mixture of oxide-based phases) during n-butane isomerisation and that the RDS was the skeletal isomerisation of the linear butene intermediates. The only promotional effect of CoAlPO-11 on the activity of partially reduced MoO3 for C-5-C-6 alkane hydroisomerisation was a reduction of the induction period, as the RDS at steady-state conditions appeared to be dehydrogenation of the alkane in this case. However, lower yields of branched isomers were observed in this case, the reason of which is yet unclear. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.