Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.

Three-phase tri-state integrated boost inverter with special space vector and dq0 control

This paper presents a three-phase integrated inverter suitable for stand-alone and grid-connected applications. Furthermore, the utilization of the special features of the tri-state coupled with the new space vector modulation allows the converter to present an attractive degree of freedom for the designing of the controllers. Additionally, the control is derived through dq0 transformation, all the system is described and interesting simulation results are available to confirm the proposal. © 2012 IEEE.

Basic ingredients for mathematical modeling of tumor growth in vitro: Cooperative effects and search for space

Based on the literature data from HT-29 cell monolayers, we develop a model for its growth, analogous to an epidemic model, mixing local and global interactions. First, we propose and solve a deterministic equation for the progress of these colonies. Thus, we add a stochastic (local) interaction and simulate the evolution of an Eden-like aggregate by using dynamical Monte Carlo methods. The growth curves of both deterministic and stochastic models are in excellent agreement with the experimental observations. The waiting times distributions, generated via our stochastic model, allowed us to analyze the role of mesoscopic events. We obtain log-normal distributions in the initial stages of the growth and Gaussians at long times. We interpret these outcomes in the light of cellular division events: in the early stages, the phenomena are dependent each other in a multiplicative geometric-based process, and they are independent at long times. We conclude that the main ingredients for a good minimalist model of tumor growth, at mesoscopic level, are intrinsic cooperative mechanisms and competitive search for space. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Modeling of state machines in VHDL for encapsulation of DNP3 Protocol in P2P ZigBee Network

Several countries have invested in technologies for Smart Grids. Among such protocols designed cover this area, highlights the DNP3 (Distributed Network Protocol version 3). Although the DNP3 be developed for operation over the serial interface, there is a trend in the literature to the use of other interfaces. The Zigbee wireless interface has become more popular in the industrial applications. In order to study the challenges of integrating of these two protocols, this article is presented the analysis of DNP3 protocol stack through state machines The encapsulation of DNP3 messages in P2P (point-to-point) ZigBee Network, may assist in the discovery and solution of failures of availability and security of this integration. The ultimate goal is to merge the features of DNP3 and Zigbee stacks, and display a solution that provides the benefits of wireless environment, without impairment of security required for Smart Grid applications.

Estimation of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Height and Distribution in Nova Avanhandava Reservoir (São Paulo State, Brazil) Using Bio-Optical Modeling

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A squeezed state holomorphic phase space representation of equations of motion

A mapping scheme is presented which takes quantum operators associated to bosonic degrees of freedom into complex phase space integral kernel representatives. The procedure consists of using the Schrödinger squeezed state as the starting point for the construction of the integral mapping kernel which, due to its inherent structure, is suited for the description of second quantized operators. Products and commutators of operators have their representatives explicitly written which reveal new details when compared to the usual q-p phase space description. The classical limit of the equations of motion for the canonical pair q-p is discussed in connection with the effect of squeezing the quantum phase space cellular structure. © 1993.

The IDEOLOGY SPACE BRAZILIAN NATIONAL STATE OF CONSTITUTIVE

In the debate over the construction of the Brazilian national state, we assume that this process has established itself at the heart of a fragmentary appreciation of their aesthetic variants, forming a controversial ideology spatial sense of identity to the nation. progress, modernization and territorial integration emerge as slogans on the link between the imagined nation, Brazil Imperial, and the nation as concretized throughout the twentieth century, despite the discourse and actions in the rescue culture synthesis Brazilianness. It is evident, that scope, a tendency to think the nation more as a product of a cultural elite (fragments of baroque and colonial cities consecrated) than through symbols forming territories hybrids representatives of all of their constructors: the antagonistic protagonists.

Space-time cluster analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis in Bauru, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

A space-time analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in humans in the city of Bauru, Sao Paulo State, Brazil was carried out based on 239 cases diagnosed between June 2003 and October 2008. Spatial analysis of the disease showed that cases occurred especially in the city's urban areas. AVL annual incidence rates were calculated, demonstrating that the highest rate occurred in 2006 (19.55/100,000 inhabitants). This finding was confirmed by the time series analysis, which also showed a positive tendency over the period analyzed. The present study allows us to conclude that the disease was clustered in the Southwest side of the city in 2006, suggesting that this area may require special attention with regard to control and prevention measures.

Space-time cluster analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis in Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil

A space-time analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in humans in the city of Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil was carried out based on 239 cases diagnosed between June 2003 and October 2008. Spatial analysis of the disease showed that cases occurred especially in the city's urban areas. AVL annual incidence rates were calculated, demonstrating that the highest rate occurred in 2006 (19.55/100,000 inhabitants). This finding was confirmed by the time series analysis, which also showed a positive tendency over the period analyzed. The present study allows us to conclude that the disease was clustered in the Southwest side of the city in 2006, suggesting that this area may require special attention with regard to control and prevention measures.

Relationship between space distribution of the benthic macroinvertebrates community and trophic state in a Neotropical reservoir (Itupararanga, Brazil)

The purpose of this work was to verify the benthic macroinvertebrates community responses through environmental factors along a headwater tropical reservoir. Samplings were taken with a Van-Veen grab along the reservoir in littoral and profundal regions and in the headwater, next to the dam and the middle of the reservoir. Samples were taken during both wet and dry seasons. Dissolved oxygen concentrations, electric conductivity, temperature and pH near the sediment have been performed in situ, at every sampling station by using a multiprobe and Secchi disc. Total water phosphorus and chlorophyll a concentrations were analyzed to determine the trophic state index. Sediment's organic matter, total phosphorus, nitrogen concentrations and granulometric composition were measured. In order to verify which environmental variables would have more influence over the benthic macroinvertebrates community, a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) was performed. The total number of recorded taxa was 28. Among them, the family Chironomidae (Diptera) was the richest group (19 taxa). It can be proposed that the benthic macroinvertebrates community may be influenced by environmental conditions such as nutrient and organic matter availability, as well as dissolved oxygen concentration. Macroinvertebrates are adequate bioindicators of water quality due to their sensibility to environmental changes mentioned before. Chironomus sp, Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri and Branchiura sowerbyi comprises a group that can be considered bio-indicators of eutrophic conditions. A second group can be considered as indicator of mesotrophic conditions. The presence of two or more members from that group which comprises Tanytarsini spp, Fissimentum sp, Pelomus sp and Goeldichironomus sp, like predominant taxa, may indicates mesotrophic conditions.

Statistical Physics and Modeling of Human Mobility

In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

Many-Core Architectures: Hardware-Software Optimization and Modeling Techniques

During the last few decades an unprecedented technological growth has been at the center of the embedded systems design paramount, with Moore’s Law being the leading factor of this trend. Today in fact an ever increasing number of cores can be integrated on the same die, marking the transition from state-of-the-art multi-core chips to the new many-core design paradigm. Despite the extraordinarily high computing power, the complexity of many-core chips opens the door to several challenges. As a result of the increased silicon density of modern Systems-on-a-Chip (SoC), the design space exploration needed to find the best design has exploded and hardware designers are in fact facing the problem of a huge design space. Virtual Platforms have always been used to enable hardware-software co-design, but today they are facing with the huge complexity of both hardware and software systems. In this thesis two different research works on Virtual Platforms are presented: the first one is intended for the hardware developer, to easily allow complex cycle accurate simulations of many-core SoCs. The second work exploits the parallel computing power of off-the-shelf General Purpose Graphics Processing Units (GPGPUs), with the goal of an increased simulation speed. The term Virtualization can be used in the context of many-core systems not only to refer to the aforementioned hardware emulation tools (Virtual Platforms), but also for two other main purposes: 1) to help the programmer to achieve the maximum possible performance of an application, by hiding the complexity of the underlying hardware. 2) to efficiently exploit the high parallel hardware of many-core chips in environments with multiple active Virtual Machines. This thesis is focused on virtualization techniques with the goal to mitigate, and overtake when possible, some of the challenges introduced by the many-core design paradigm.

Advanced morphological 3D magnetic resonance observation of cartilage repair tissue (MOCART) scoring using a new isotropic 3D proton-density, turbo spin echo sequence with variable flip angle distribution (PD-SPACE) compared to an isotropic 3D steady-state free precession sequence (True-FISP) and standard 2D sequences

To evaluate a new isotropic 3D proton-density, turbo-spin-echo sequence with variable flip-angle distribution (PD-SPACE) sequence compared to an isotropic 3D true-fast-imaging with steady-state-precession (True-FISP) sequence and 2D standard MR sequences with regard to the new 3D magnetic resonance observation of cartilage repair tissue (MOCART) score.

Analysis and Prediction of Transient Opacity Spikes Using Dimensional Modeling

Dimensional modeling, GT-Power in particular, has been used for two related purposes-to quantify and understand the inaccuracies of transient engine flow estimates that cause transient smoke spikes and to improve empirical models of opacity or particulate matter used for engine calibration. It has been proposed by dimensional modeling that exhaust gas recirculation flow rate was significantly underestimated and volumetric efficiency was overestimated by the electronic control module during the turbocharger lag period of an electronically controlled heavy duty diesel engine. Factoring in cylinder-to-cylinder variation, it has been shown that the electronic control module estimated fuel-Oxygen ratio was lower than actual by up to 35% during the turbocharger lag period but within 2% of actual elsewhere, thus hindering fuel-Oxygen ratio limit-based smoke control. The dimensional modeling of transient flow was enabled with a new method of simulating transient data in which the manifold pressures and exhaust gas recirculation system flow resistance, characterized as a function of exhaust gas recirculation valve position at each measured transient data point, were replicated by quasi-static or transient simulation to predict engine flows. Dimensional modeling was also used to transform the engine operating parameter model input space to a more fundamental lower dimensional space so that a nearest neighbor approach could be used to predict smoke emissions. This new approach, intended for engine calibration and control modeling, was termed the "nonparametric reduced dimensionality" approach. It was used to predict federal test procedure cumulative particulate matter within 7% of measured value, based solely on steady-state training data. Very little correlation between the model inputs in the transformed space was observed as compared to the engine operating parameter space. This more uniform, smaller, shrunken model input space might explain how the nonparametric reduced dimensionality approach model could successfully predict federal test procedure emissions when roughly 40% of all transient points were classified as outliers as per the steady-state training data.

Advantages and Applications of Transforming Empirical Model Input Space with Dimensional Models

Model-based calibration of steady-state engine operation is commonly performed with highly parameterized empirical models that are accurate but not very robust, particularly when predicting highly nonlinear responses such as diesel smoke emissions. To address this problem, and to boost the accuracy of more robust non-parametric methods to the same level, GT-Power was used to transform the empirical model input space into multiple input spaces that simplified the input-output relationship and improved the accuracy and robustness of smoke predictions made by three commonly used empirical modeling methods: Multivariate Regression, Neural Networks and the k-Nearest Neighbor method. The availability of multiple input spaces allowed the development of two committee techniques: a 'Simple Committee' technique that used averaged predictions from a set of 10 pre-selected input spaces chosen by the training data and the "Minimum Variance Committee" technique where the input spaces for each prediction were chosen on the basis of disagreement between the three modeling methods. This latter technique equalized the performance of the three modeling methods. The successively increasing improvements resulting from the use of a single best transformed input space (Best Combination Technique), Simple Committee Technique and Minimum Variance Committee Technique were verified with hypothesis testing. The transformed input spaces were also shown to improve outlier detection and to improve k-Nearest Neighbor performance when predicting dynamic emissions with steady-state training data. An unexpected finding was that the benefits of input space transformation were unaffected by changes in the hardware or the calibration of the underlying GT-Power model.