Spatial Patterns in Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Chlorophyll and Sea Surface Temperature in the California Current

Physical forcing and biological response within the California Current System (CCS) are highly variable over a wide range of scales. Satellite remote sensing offers the only feasible means of quantifying this variability over the full extent of the CCS. Using six years (1997-2003) of daily SST and chlorophyll imagery, we map the spatial dependence of dominant temporal variability at resolutions sufficient to identify recurrent mesoscale circulation and local pattern associated with coastal topography. Here we describe mean seasonal cycles and interannual variation; intraseasonal variability is left to a companion paper ( K. R. Legaard and A. C. Thomas, manuscript in preparation, 2006). Coastal upwelling dictates seasonality along north-central California, where weak cycles of SST fluctuate between spring minima and late summer maxima and chlorophyll peaks in early summer. Off northern California, chlorophyll maxima are bounded offshore by the seasonally recurrent upwelling jet. Seasonal cycles differ across higher latitudes and in the midlatitude Southern California Bight, where upwelling winds are less vigorous and/or persistent. Seasonality along south-central Baja is strongly affected by processes other than upwelling, despite year-round upwelling-favorable winds. Interannual variation is generally dominated by El Nino and La Nina conditions. Interannual SST variance is greatest along south-central Baja, although interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total variance inshore along southern Oregon and much of California. Patterns of interannual chlorophyll variance are consistent with dominant forcing through the widespread depression and elevation of the nutricline during El Nino and La Nina, respectively. Interannual variability constitutes a greater fraction of total chlorophyll variance offshore.

A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Temporal and small-scale spatial variation in grassland productivity, biomass quality, and nutrient limitation

Characterization of spatial and temporal variation in grassland productivity and nutrition is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of ecosystem function. Although within-site heterogeneity in soil and plant properties has been shown to be relevant for plant community stability, spatiotemporal variability in these factors is still understudied in temperate grasslands. Our study aimed to detect if soil characteristics and plant diversity could explain observed small-scale spatial and temporal variability in grassland productivity, biomass nutrient concentrations, and nutrient limitation. Therefore, we sampled 360 plots of 20 cm × 20 cm each at six consecutive dates in an unfertilized grassland in Southern Germany. Nutrient limitation was estimated using nutrient ratios in plant biomass. Absolute values of, and spatial variability in, productivity, biomass nutrient concentrations, and nutrient limitation were strongly associated with sampling date. In April, spatial heterogeneity was high and most plots showed phosphorous deficiency, while later in the season nitrogen was the major limiting nutrient. Additionally, a small significant positive association between plant diversity and biomass phosphorus concentrations was observed, but should be tested in more detail. We discuss how low biological activity e.g., of soil microbial organisms might have influenced observed heterogeneity of plant nutrition in early spring in combination with reduced active acquisition of soil resources by plants. These early-season conditions are particularly relevant for future studies as they differ substantially from more thoroughly studied later season conditions. Our study underlines the importance of considering small spatial scales and temporal variability to better elucidate mechanisms of ecosystem functioning and plant community assembly.

Distributions and Variability of Particulate Organic Matter in a Coastal Upwelling System

In this study we examined the spatial and temporal variability of particulate organic material (POM) off Oregon during the upwelling season. High-resolution vertical profiling of beam attenuation was conducted along two cross-shelf transects. One transect was located in a region where the shelf is relatively uniform and narrow (off Cascade Head (CH)); the second transect was located in a region where the shelf is shallow and wide (off Cape Perpetua (CP)). In addition, water samples were collected for direct analysis of chlorophyll, particulate organic carbon (POC), and particulate organic nitrogen (PON). Beam attenuation was highly correlated with POC and PON. Striking differences in distribution patterns and characteristics of POM were observed between CH and CP. Off CH, elevated concentrations of chlorophyll and POC were restricted to the inner shelf and were highly variable in time. The magnitude of the observed short-term temporal variability was of the same order as that of the seasonal variability reported in previous studies. Elevated concentrations of nondegraded chlorophyll and POM were observed near the bottom. Downwelling and rapid sinking are two mechanisms by which phytoplankton cells can be delivered to the bottom before being degraded. POM may be then transported across the shelf via the benthic nepheloid layer. Along the CP transect, concentrations of POM were generally higher than they were along the CH transect and extended farther across the shelf. Characteristics of surface POM, namely, C: N ratios and carbon: chlorophyll ratios, differed between the two sites. These differences can be attributed to differences in shelf circulation.

Lake Son Kol geochemistry, µXRF, biogeochemistry and pollen record

In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100-4350, 3450-2850, and 1900-1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct ~1500-year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.

Snow depths of volcanic events and accumulation rates of firn cores from the IPY traverse, Antarctica

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963-2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Coevolución virus-planta: impacto de las infecciones virales en poblaciones silvestres de Chiltepín (capsicum annuum var. Aviculare (dierbach) d’arcy & eshbaugh) en México.

El impacto negativo que tienen los virus en las plantas hace que estos puedan ejercer un papel ecológico como moduladores de la dinámica espacio-temporal de las poblaciones de sus huéspedes. Entender cuáles son los mecanismos genéticos y los factores ambientales que determinan tanto la epidemiología como la estructura genética de las poblaciones de virus puede resultar de gran ayuda para la comprensión del papel ecológico de las infecciones virales. Sin embargo, existen pocos trabajos experimentales que hayan abordado esta cuestión. En esta tesis, se analiza el efecto de la heterogeneidad del paisaje sobre la incidencia de los virus y la estructura genética de sus poblaciones. Asimismo, se explora como dichos factores ambientales influyen en la importancia relativa que los principales mecanismos de generación de variabilidad genética (mutación, recombinación y migración) tienen en la evolución de los virus. Para ello se ha usado como sistema los begomovirus que infectan poblaciones de chiltepín (Capsicum annuum var. aviculare (Dierbach) D´Arcy & Eshbaugh) en México. Se analizó la incidencia de diferentes virus en poblaciones de chiltepín distribuidas a lo largo de seis provincias biogeográficas, representando el área de distribución de la especie en México, y localizadas en hábitats con diferente grado de intervención humana: poblaciones sin intervención humana (silvestres); poblaciones toleradas (lindes y pastizales), y poblaciones manejadas por el hombre (monocultivos y huertos familiares). Entre los virus analizados, los begomovirus mostraron la mayor incidencia, detectándose en todas las poblaciones y años de muestreo. Las únicas dos especies de begomovirus que se encontraron infectando al chiltepín fueron: el virus del mosaico dorado del chile (Pepper golden mosaic virus, PepGMV) y el virus huasteco del amarilleo de venas del chile (Pepper huasteco yellow vein virus, PHYVV). Por ello, todos los análisis realizados en esta tesis se centran en estas dos especies de virus. La incidencia de PepGMV y PHYVV, tanto en infecciones simples como mixtas, aumento cuanto mayor fue el nivel de intervención humana en las poblaciones de chiltepín, lo que a su vez se asoció con una menor biodiversidad y una mayor densidad de plantas. Además, la incidencia de infecciones mixtas, altamente relacionada con la presencia de síntomas, fue también mayor en las poblaciones cultivadas. La incidencia de estos dos virus también varió en función de la población de chiltepín y de la provincia biogeográfica. Por tanto, estos resultados apoyan una de las hipótesis XVI clásicas de la Patología Vegetal según la cual la simplificación de los ecosistemas naturales debida a la intervención humana conduce a un mayor riesgo de enfermedad de las plantas, e ilustran sobre la importancia de la heterogeneidad del paisaje a diferentes escalas en la determinación de patrones epidemiológicos. La heterogeneidad del paisaje no solo afectó a la epidemiología de PepGMV y PHYVV, sino también a la estructura genética de sus poblaciones. En ambos virus, el nivel de diferenciación genética mayor fue la población, probablemente asociado a la capacidad de migración de su vector Bemisia tabaci; y en segundo lugar la provincia biogeográfica, lo que podría estar relacionado con el papel del ser humano como agente dispersor de PepGMV y PHYVV. La estima de las tasas de sustitución nucleotídica de las poblaciones de PepGMV y PHYVV mostró una rápida dinámica evolutiva. Los árboles filogenéticos de ambos virus presentaron una topología en estrella, lo que sugiere una expansión reciente en las poblaciones de chiltepín. La reconstrucción de los patrones de migración de ambos virus indicó que ésta expansión parece haberse producido desde la zona central de México siguiendo un patrón radial, y en los últimos 30 años. Es importante tener en cuenta que el patrón espacial de la diversidad genética de las poblaciones de PepGMV y PHYVV es similar al descrito previamente para el chiltepín lo que podría dar lugar a la congruencia de las genealogías del huésped y la de los virus. Dicha congruencia se encontró cuando se tuvieron en cuenta únicamente las poblaciones de hábitats silvestres y tolerados, lo que probablemente se debe a una codivergencia en el espacio pero no en el tiempo, dado que la evolución de virus y huésped han ocurrido a escalas temporales muy diferentes. Finalmente, el análisis de la frecuencia de recombinación en PepGMV y PHYVV indicó que esta juega un papel importante en la evolución de ambos virus, dependiendo su importancia del nivel de intervención humana de la población de chiltepín. Este factor afectó también a la intensidad de la selección a la que se ven sometidos los genomas de PepGMV y PHYVV. Los resultados de esta tesis ponen de manifiesto la importancia que la reducción de la biodiversidad asociada al nivel de intervención humana de las poblaciones de plantas y la heterogeneidad del paisaje tiene en la emergencia de nuevas enfermedades virales. Por tanto, es necesario considerar estos factores ambientales a la hora de comprender la epidemiologia y la evolución de los virus de plantas.XVII SUMMARY Plant viruses play a key role as modulators of the spatio-temporal dynamics of their host populations, due to their negative impact in plant fitness. Knowledge on the genetic and environmental factors that determine the epidemiology and the genetic structure of virus populations may help to understand the ecological role of viral infections. However, few experimental works have addressed this issue. This thesis analyses the effect of landscape heterogeneity in the prevalence of viruses and the genetic structure of their populations. Also, how these environmental factors influence the relative importance of the main mechanisms for generating genetic variability (mutation, recombination and migration) during virus evolution is explored. To do so, the begomoviruses infecting chiltepin (Capsicum annuum var. aviculare (Dierbach) D'Arcy & Eshbaugh) populations in Mexico were used. Incidence of different viruses in chiltepin populations of six biogeographical provinces representing the species distribution in Mexico was determined. Populations belonged to different habitats according to the level of human management: populations with no human intervention (Wild); populations naturally dispersed and tolerated in managed habitats (let-standing), and human managed populations (cultivated). Among the analyzed viruses, the begomoviruses showed the highest prevalence, being detected in all populations and sampling years. Only two begomovirus species infected chiltepin: Pepper golden mosaic virus, PepGMV and Pepper huasteco yellow vein virus, PHYVV. Therefore, all the analyses presented in this thesis are focused in these two viruses. The prevalence of PepGMV and PHYVV, in single and mixed infections, increased with higher levels of human management of the host population, which was associated with decreased biodiversity and increased plant density. Furthermore, cultivated populations showed higher prevalence of mixed infections and symptomatic plants. The prevalence of the two viruses also varied depending on the chiltepin population and on the biogeographical province. Therefore, these results support a classical hypothesis of Plant Pathology stating that simplification of natural ecosystems due to human management leads to an increased disease risk, and illustrate on the importance of landscape heterogeneity in determining epidemiological patterns. Landscape heterogeneity not only affected the epidemiology of PepGMV and PHYVV, but also the genetic structure of their populations. Both viruses had the highest level of genetic differentiation at the population scale, probably associated with the XVIII migration patterns of its vector Bemisia tabaci, and a second level at the biogeographical province scale, which could be related to the role of humans as dispersal agents of PepGMV and PHYVV. The estimates of nucleotide substitution rates of the virus populations indicated rapid evolutionary dynamics. Accordingly, phylogenetic trees of both viruses showed a star topology, suggesting a recent diversification in the chiltepin populations. Reconstruction of PepGMV and PHYVV migration patterns indicated that they expanded from central Mexico following a radial pattern during the last 30 years. Importantly, the spatial genetic structures of the virus populations were similar to that described previously for the chiltepin, which may result in the congruence of the host and virus genealogies. Such congruence was found only in wild and let-standing populations. This is probably due to a co-divergence in space but not in time, given the different evolutionary time scales of the host and virus populations. Finally, the frequency of recombination detected in the PepGMV and PHYVV populations indicated that this mechanism plays an important role in the evolution of both viruses at the intra-specific scale. The level of human management had a minor effect on the frequency of recombination, but influenced the strength of negative selective pressures in the viral genomes. The results of this thesis highlight the importance of decreased biodiversity in plant populations associated with the level of human management and of landscape heterogeneity on the emergence of new viral diseases. Therefore it is necessary to consider these environmental factors in order to fully understand the epidemiology and evolution of plant viruses.

Integration of temporal and semantic components into the Geographic Information. Part II: Methodology

The overall objective of this research project is to enrich geographic data with temporal and semantic components in order to significantly improve spatio-temporal analysis of geographic phenomena. To achieve this goal, we intend to establish and incorporate three new layers (structures) into the core of the Geographic Information by using mark-up languages as well as defining a set of methods and tools for enriching the system to make it able to retrieve and exploit such layers (semantic-temporal, geosemantic, and incremental spatio-temporal). Besides these layers, we also propose a set of models (temporal and spatial) and two semantic engines that make the most of the enriched geographic data. The roots of the project and its definition have been previously presented in Siabato & Manso-Callejo 2011. In this new position paper, we extend such work by delineating clearly the methodology and the foundations on which we will base to define the main components of this research: the spatial model, the temporal model, the semantic layers, and the semantic engines. By putting together the former paper and this new work we try to present a comprehensive description of the whole process, from pinpointing the basic problem to describing and assessing the solution. In this new article we just mention the methods and the background to describe how we intend to define the components and integrate them into the GI.

Reconstructing the Timing and Dispersion Routes of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemics in The Caribbean and Central America: A Phylogenetic Story.

The Caribbean and Central America are among the regions with highest HIV-1B prevalence worldwide. Despite of this high virus burden, little is known about the timing and the migration patterns of HIV-1B in these regions. Migration is one of the major processes shaping the genetic structure of virus populations. Thus, reconstruction of epidemiological network may contribute to understand HIV-1B evolution and reduce virus prevalence. We have investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of the HIV-1B epidemic in The Caribbean and Central America using 1,610 HIV-1B partial pol sequences from 13 Caribbean and 5 Central American countries. Timing of HIV-1B introduction and virus evolutionary rates, as well as the spatial genetic structure of the HIV-1B populations and the virus migration patterns were inferred. Results revealed that in The Caribbean and Central America most of the HIV-1B variability was generated since the 80 s. At odds with previous data suggesting that Haiti was the origin of the epidemic in The Caribbean, our reconstruction indicated that the virus could have been disseminated from Puerto Rico and Antigua. These two countries connected two distinguishable migration areas corresponding to the (mainly Spanish-colonized) Easter and (mainly British-colonized) Western islands, which indicates that virus migration patterns are determined by geographical barriers and by the movement of human populations among culturally related countries. Similar factors shaped the migration of HIV-1B in Central America. The HIV-1B population was significantly structured according to the country of origin, and the genetic diversity in each country was associated with the virus prevalence in both regions, which suggests that virus populations evolve mainly through genetic drift. Thus, our work contributes to the understanding of HIV-1B evolution and dispersion pattern in the Americas, and its relationship with the geography of the area and the movements of human populations.

Predicción espacio-temporal de la irradiancia solar global a corto plazo en España mediante geoestadística y redes neuronales artificiales

El enriquecimiento del conocimiento sobre la Irradiancia Solar (IS) a nivel de superficie terrestre, así como su predicción, cobran gran interés para las Energías Renovables (ER) - Energía Solar (ES)-, y para distintas aplicaciones industriales o ecológicas. En el ámbito de las ER, el uso óptimo de la ES implica contar con datos de la IS en superficie que ayuden tanto, en la selección de emplazamientos para instalaciones de ES, como en su etapa de diseño (dimensionar la producción) y, finalmente, en su explotación. En este último caso, la observación y la predicción es útil para el mercado energético, la planificación y gestión de la energía (generadoras y operadoras del sistema eléctrico), especialmente en los nuevos contextos de las redes inteligentes de transporte. A pesar de la importancia estratégica de contar con datos de la IS, especialmente los observados por sensores de IS en superficie (los que mejor captan esta variable), estos no siempre están disponibles para los lugares de interés ni con la resolución espacial y temporal deseada. Esta limitación se une a la necesidad de disponer de predicciones a corto plazo de la IS que ayuden a la planificación y gestión de la energía. Se ha indagado y caracterizado las Redes de Estaciones Meteorológicas (REM) existentes en España que publican en internet sus observaciones, focalizando en la IS. Se han identificado 24 REM (16 gubernamentales y 8 redes voluntarios) que aglutinan 3492 estaciones, convirtiéndose éstas en las fuentes de datos meteorológicos utilizados en la tesis. Se han investigado cinco técnicas de estimación espacial de la IS en intervalos de 15 minutos para el territorio peninsular (3 técnicas geoestadísticas, una determinística y el método HelioSat2 basado en imágenes satelitales) con distintas configuraciones espaciales. Cuando el área de estudio tiene una adecuada densidad de observaciones, el mejor método identificado para estimar la IS es el Kriging con Regresión usando variables auxiliares -una de ellas la IS estimada a partir de imágenes satelitales-. De este modo es posible estimar espacialmente la IS más allá de los 25 km identificados en la bibliografía. En caso contrario, se corrobora la idoneidad de utilizar estimaciones a partir de sensores remotos cuando la densidad de observaciones no es adecuada. Se ha experimentado con el modelado de Redes Neuronales Artificiales (RNA) para la predicción a corto plazo de la IS utilizando observaciones próximas (componentes espaciales) en sus entradas y, los resultados son prometedores. Así los niveles de errores disminuyen bajo las siguientes condiciones: (1) cuando el horizonte temporal de predicción es inferior o igual a 3 horas, las estaciones vecinas que se incluyen en el modelo deben encentrarse a una distancia máxima aproximada de 55 km. Esto permite concluir que las RNA son capaces de aprender cómo afectan las condiciones meteorológicas vecinas a la predicción de la IS. ABSTRACT ABSTRACT The enrichment of knowledge about the Solar Irradiance (SI) at Earth's surface and its prediction, have a high interest for Renewable Energy (RE) - Solar Energy (SE) - and for various industrial and environmental applications. In the field of the RE, the optimal use of the SE involves having SI surface to help in the selection of sites for facilities ES, in the design stage (sizing energy production), and finally on their production. In the latter case, the observation and prediction is useful for the market, planning and management of the energy (generators and electrical system operators), especially in new contexts of smart transport networks (smartgrid). Despite the strategic importance of SI data, especially those observed by sensors of SI at surface (the ones that best measure this environmental variable), these are not always available to the sights and the spatial and temporal resolution desired. This limitation is bound to the need for short-term predictions of the SI to help planning and energy management. It has been investigated and characterized existing Networks of Weather Stations (NWS) in Spain that share its observations online, focusing on SI. 24 NWS have been identified (16 government and 8 volunteer networks) that implies 3492 stations, turning it into the sources of meteorological data used in the thesis. We have investigated five technical of spatial estimation of SI in 15 minutes to the mainland (3 geostatistical techniques and HelioSat2 a deterministic method based on satellite images) with different spatial configurations. When the study area has an adequate density of observations we identified the best method to estimate the SI is the regression kriging with auxiliary variables (one of them is the SI estimated from satellite images. Thus it is possible to spatially estimate the SI beyond the 25 km identified in the literature. Otherwise, when the density of observations is inadequate the appropriateness is using the estimates values from remote sensing. It has been experimented with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) modeling for predicting the short-term future of the SI using observations from neighbor’s weather stations (spatial components) in their inputs, and the results are promising. The error levels decrease under the following conditions: (1) when the prediction horizon is less or equal than 3 hours the best models are the ones that include data from the neighboring stations (at a maximum distance of 55 km). It is concluded that the ANN is able to learn how weather conditions affect neighboring prediction of IS at such Spatio-temporal horizons.

Methods for the analysis of multi-scale cell dynamics from fluorescence microscopy images

La embriogénesis es el proceso mediante el cual una célula se convierte en un ser un vivo. A lo largo de diferentes etapas de desarrollo, la población de células va proliferando a la vez que el embrión va tomando forma y se configura. Esto es posible gracias a la acción de varios procesos genéticos, bioquímicos y mecánicos que interaccionan y se regulan entre ellos formando un sistema complejo que se organiza a diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales. Este proceso ocurre de manera robusta y reproducible, pero también con cierta variabilidad que permite la diversidad de individuos de una misma especie. La aparición de la microscopía de fluorescencia, posible gracias a proteínas fluorescentes que pueden ser adheridas a las cadenas de expresión de las células, y los avances en la física óptica de los microscopios han permitido observar este proceso de embriogénesis in-vivo y generar secuencias de imágenes tridimensionales de alta resolución espacio-temporal. Estas imágenes permiten el estudio de los procesos de desarrollo embrionario con técnicas de análisis de imagen y de datos, reconstruyendo dichos procesos para crear la representación de un embrión digital. Una de las más actuales problemáticas en este campo es entender los procesos mecánicos, de manera aislada y en interacción con otros factores como la expresión genética, para que el embrión se desarrolle. Debido a la complejidad de estos procesos, estos problemas se afrontan mediante diferentes técnicas y escalas específicas donde, a través de experimentos, pueden hacerse y confrontarse hipótesis, obteniendo conclusiones sobre el funcionamiento de los mecanismos estudiados. Esta tesis doctoral se ha enfocado sobre esta problemática intentando mejorar las metodologías del estado del arte y con un objetivo específico: estudiar patrones de deformación que emergen del movimiento organizado de las células durante diferentes estados del desarrollo del embrión, de manera global o en tejidos concretos. Estudios se han centrado en la mecánica en relación con procesos de señalización o interacciones a nivel celular o de tejido. En este trabajo, se propone un esquema para generalizar el estudio del movimiento y las interacciones mecánicas que se desprenden del mismo a diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales. Esto permitiría no sólo estudios locales, si no estudios sistemáticos de las escalas de interacción mecánica dentro de un embrión. Por tanto, el esquema propuesto obvia las causas de generación de movimiento (fuerzas) y se centra en la cuantificación de la cinemática (deformación y esfuerzos) a partir de imágenes de forma no invasiva. Hoy en día las dificultades experimentales y metodológicas y la complejidad de los sistemas biológicos impiden una descripción mecánica completa de manera sistemática. Sin embargo, patrones de deformación muestran el resultado de diferentes factores mecánicos en interacción con otros elementos dando lugar a una organización mecánica, necesaria para el desarrollo, que puede ser cuantificado a partir de la metodología propuesta en esta tesis. La metodología asume un medio continuo descrito de forma Lagrangiana (en función de las trayectorias de puntos materiales que se mueven en el sistema en lugar de puntos espaciales) de la dinámica del movimiento, estimado a partir de las imágenes mediante métodos de seguimiento de células o de técnicas de registro de imagen. Gracias a este esquema es posible describir la deformación instantánea y acumulada respecto a un estado inicial para cualquier dominio del embrión. La aplicación de esta metodología a imágenes 3D + t del pez zebra sirvió para desvelar estructuras mecánicas que tienden a estabilizarse a lo largo del tiempo en dicho embrión, y que se organizan a una escala semejante al del mapa de diferenciación celular y con indicios de correlación con patrones de expresión genética. También se aplicó la metodología al estudio del tejido amnioserosa de la Drosophila (mosca de la fruta) durante el cierre dorsal, obteniendo indicios de un acoplamiento entre escalas subcelulares, celulares y supracelulares, que genera patrones complejos en respuesta a la fuerza generada por los esqueletos de acto-myosina. En definitiva, esta tesis doctoral propone una estrategia novedosa de análisis de la dinámica celular multi-escala que permite cuantificar patrones de manera inmediata y que además ofrece una representación que reconstruye la evolución de los procesos como los ven las células, en lugar de como son observados desde el microscopio. Esta metodología por tanto permite nuevas formas de análisis y comparación de embriones y tejidos durante la embriogénesis a partir de imágenes in-vivo. ABSTRACT The embryogenesis is the process from which a single cell turns into a living organism. Through several stages of development, the cell population proliferates at the same time the embryo shapes and the organs develop gaining their functionality. This is possible through genetic, biochemical and mechanical factors that are involved in a complex interaction of processes organized in different levels and in different spatio-temporal scales. The embryogenesis, through this complexity, develops in a robust and reproducible way, but allowing variability that makes possible the diversity of living specimens. The advances in physics of microscopes and the appearance of fluorescent proteins that can be attached to expression chains, reporting about structural and functional elements of the cell, have enabled for the in-vivo observation of embryogenesis. The imaging process results in sequences of high spatio-temporal resolution 3D+time data of the embryogenesis as a digital representation of the embryos that can be further analyzed, provided new image processing and data analysis techniques are developed. One of the most relevant and challenging lines of research in the field is the quantification of the mechanical factors and processes involved in the shaping process of the embryo and their interactions with other embryogenesis factors such as genetics. Due to the complexity of the processes, studies have focused on specific problems and scales controlled in the experiments, posing and testing hypothesis to gain new biological insight. However, methodologies are often difficult to be exported to study other biological phenomena or specimens. This PhD Thesis is framed within this paradigm of research and tries to propose a systematic methodology to quantify the emergent deformation patterns from the motion estimated in in-vivo images of embryogenesis. Thanks to this strategy it would be possible to quantify not only local mechanisms, but to discover and characterize the scales of mechanical organization within the embryo. The framework focuses on the quantification of the motion kinematics (deformation and strains), neglecting the causes of the motion (forces), from images in a non-invasive way. Experimental and methodological challenges hamper the quantification of exerted forces and the mechanical properties of tissues. However, a descriptive framework of deformation patterns provides valuable insight about the organization and scales of the mechanical interactions, along the embryo development. Such a characterization would help to improve mechanical models and progressively understand the complexity of embryogenesis. This framework relies on a Lagrangian representation of the cell dynamics system based on the trajectories of points moving along the deformation. This approach of analysis enables the reconstruction of the mechanical patterning as experienced by the cells and tissues. Thus, we can build temporal profiles of deformation along stages of development, comprising both the instantaneous events and the cumulative deformation history. The application of this framework to 3D + time data of zebrafish embryogenesis allowed us to discover mechanical profiles that stabilized through time forming structures that organize in a scale comparable to the map of cell differentiation (fate map), and also suggesting correlation with genetic patterns. The framework was also applied to the analysis of the amnioserosa tissue in the drosophila’s dorsal closure, revealing that the oscillatory contraction triggered by the acto-myosin network organized complexly coupling different scales: local force generation foci, cellular morphology control mechanisms and tissue geometrical constraints. In summary, this PhD Thesis proposes a theoretical framework for the analysis of multi-scale cell dynamics that enables to quantify automatically mechanical patterns and also offers a new representation of the embryo dynamics as experienced by cells instead of how the microscope captures instantaneously the processes. Therefore, this framework enables for new strategies of quantitative analysis and comparison between embryos and tissues during embryogenesis from in-vivo images.

Relações espaço-temporais como restrições de tomadas de decisões na grande área no futebol

Este estudo investigou as tomadas de decisões de jogadores dentro da grande área do futebol com base em variáveis espaciais e espaço-temporais de coordenações interpessoal e extrapessoal. Participaram do estudo 150 jogadores do sexo masculino, com idade entre 18 e 38 anos, e experiência de prática neste esporte de, no mínimo, 7 anos. Foram filmados 12 jogos de futebol de um campeonato amador na Colômbia. As imagens capturadas foram analisadas através do software TACTO, e as variáveis consideradas para análise foram as seguintes: i) ângulo de chute, formado por vetores ligando o jogador com posse de bola a dois componentes do jogo que geravam uma lacuna no gol; ii) ângulo A de passe, composto por vetores conectando o portador da bola ao seu marcador mais próximo e ao seu companheiro de equipe; iii) ângulo B de passe, formado por vetores ligando o portador da bola ao seu companheiro de equipe e ao marcador mais próximo dele; iv) distância interpessoal, caracterizada pela distância entre o jogador com posse de bola e seu defensor mais próximo; v) velocidade e variabilidade relacionadas às mudanças em cada uma dessas medidas. Essas variáveis foram comparadas em relação a situações de chute, passe e drible. Os resultados revelaram que, em relação à decisão de chutar, o ângulo de chute representando a interação entre as possibilidades de completá-lo e de o mesmo ser interceptado, diferiu do mesmo ângulo em que as decisões de passe e drible foram tomadas; e, na decisão de driblar, a distância interpessoal apresentou diferenças com as situações em que o passe foi executado. Concluiu-se que, no caso do chute ao gol e o drible, os ângulos de chute e distâncias interpessoais, respectivamente, funcionaram como variáveis informacionais de coordenações interpessoal e extrapessoal importantes para as tomadas de decisão

Heterogeneidade espacial e variabilidade temporal de dois reservatórios com diferentes graus de trofia, no Estado de São Paulo

O entendimento da comunidade fitoplanctônica em sistemas instáveis, como por exemplo reservatórios, necessita conhecimento de escalas de variabilidade. Com base nisso, um estudo sobre a heterogeneidade espacial e variabilidade temporal de dois reservatórios com diferentes graus de trofia, no Estado de São Paulo foi realizado em 20 estações no reservatório de Salto Grande e em 19 no reservatório do Lobo, em 3 dias consecutivos, em quatro períodos: outubro de 1999, janeiro, abril e junho e julho de 2000. Para tanto foram determinadas as concentrações de nutrientes totais e dissolvidos, material em suspensão, carbono inorgânico, clorofila a, biomassa, densidade, composição e produtividade primária da comunidade fitoplanctônica e os perfis de oxigênio dissolvido, temperatura, pH e condutividade. Os dois reservatórios tiveram estruturas espaciais semelhantes com a formação de três zonas distintas. A zona de rio, misturada, com menor penetração de luz e maior concentração de nutrientes, a zona de transição, e a zona lacustre, mais estratificada, com maior penetração de luz e menor concentração de nutrientes. Apesar dessa compartimentalização a heterogeneidade espacial no reservatório de Salto Grande foi maior que no reservatório do Lobo, sobretudo em função do gradiente longitudinal de nutrientes e luz. A variabilidade diária (3 dias) nos dois reservatórios não foi significativa na determinação da comunidade fitoplanctônica. A escala de variabilidade sazonal, nos dois reservatórios, foi determinada, principalmente pela variação nos padrões de estratificação e mistura sendo, assim, determinante na composição da comunidade fitoplanctônica. Essa influência foi mais evidente no reservatório do Lobo. A variação temporal e heterogeneidade espacial das mais abundantes espécies e grupos taxonômicos da comunidade fitoplanctônica, (Microcystis aeruginosa, Anabaena crassa e Anabaena circinalis em Salto Grande e Aphanocapsa delicatissima, Coelastrum reticulatum e Aulacoseira granulata no Lobo) nos dois reservatórios foram determinados pelos complexos processos de estratificação e mistura e da disponibilidade de luz. Os resultados obtidos são importantes para o entendimento da variabilidade ambiental de reservatórios tropicais e no planejamento de amostragens que visem o gerenciamento desses sistemas.