Numerical simulations of magma chamber dynamics at Campi Flegrei, and associated seismicity, deformation and gravity changes

Understanding the complex relationships between quantities measured by volcanic monitoring network and shallow magma processes is a crucial headway for the comprehension of volcanic processes and a more realistic evaluation of the associated hazard. This question is very relevant at Campi Flegrei, a volcanic quiescent caldera immediately north-west of Napoli (Italy). The system activity shows a high fumarole release and periodic ground slow movement (bradyseism) with high seismicity. This activity, with the high people density and the presence of military and industrial buildings, makes Campi Flegrei one of the areas with higher volcanic hazard in the world. In such a context my thesis has been focused on magma dynamics due to the refilling of shallow magma chambers, and on the geophysical signals detectable by seismic, deformative and gravimetric monitoring networks that are associated with this phenomenologies. Indeed, the refilling of magma chambers is a process frequently occurring just before a volcanic eruption; therefore, the faculty of identifying this dynamics by means of recorded signal analysis is important to evaluate the short term volcanic hazard. The space-time evolution of dynamics due to injection of new magma in the magma chamber has been studied performing numerical simulations with, and implementing additional features in, the code GALES (Longo et al., 2006), recently developed and still on the upgrade at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia in Pisa (Italy). GALES is a finite element code based on a physico-mathematical two dimensional, transient model able to treat fluids as multiphase homogeneous mixtures, compressible to incompressible. The fundamental equations of mass, momentum and energy balance are discretised both in time and space using the Galerkin Least-Squares and discontinuity-capturing stabilisation technique. The physical properties of the mixture are computed as a function of local conditions of magma composition, pressure and temperature.The model features enable to study a broad range of phenomenologies characterizing pre and sin-eruptive magma dynamics in a wide domain from the volcanic crater to deep magma feeding zones. The study of displacement field associated with the simulated fluid dynamics has been carried out with a numerical code developed by the Geophysical group at the University College Dublin (O’Brien and Bean, 2004b), with whom we started a very profitable collaboration. In this code, the seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous media with free surface (e.g. the Earth’s surface) is simulated using a discrete elastic lattice where particle interactions are controlled by the Hooke’s law. This method allows to consider medium heterogeneities and complex topography. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations have been defined within a coordinate project (INGV-DPC 2004-06 V3_2 “Research on active volcanoes, precursors, scenarios, hazard and risk - Campi Flegrei”), to which this thesis contributes, and many researchers experienced on Campi Flegrei in volcanological, seismic, petrological, geochemical fields, etc. collaborate. Numerical simulations of magma and rock dynamis have been coupled as described in the thesis. The first part of the thesis consists of a parametric study aimed at understanding the eect of the presence in magma of carbon dioxide in magma in the convection dynamics. Indeed, the presence of this volatile was relevant in many Campi Flegrei eruptions, including some eruptions commonly considered as reference for a future activity of this volcano. A set of simulations considering an elliptical magma chamber, compositionally uniform, refilled from below by a magma with volatile content equal or dierent from that of the resident magma has been performed. To do this, a multicomponent non-ideal magma saturation model (Papale et al., 2006) that considers the simultaneous presence of CO2 and H2O, has been implemented in GALES. Results show that the presence of CO2 in the incoming magma increases its buoyancy force promoting convection ad mixing. The simulated dynamics produce pressure transients with frequency and amplitude in the sensitivity range of modern geophysical monitoring networks such as the one installed at Campi Flegrei . In the second part, simulations more related with the Campi Flegrei volcanic system have been performed. The simulated system has been defined on the basis of conditions consistent with the bulk of knowledge of Campi Flegrei and in particular of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 B.P.), commonly considered as reference for a future high intensity eruption in this area. The magmatic system has been modelled as a long dyke refilling a small shallow magma chamber; magmas with trachytic and phonolitic composition and variable volatile content of H2O and CO2 have been considered. The simulations have been carried out changing the condition of magma injection, the system configuration (magma chamber geometry, dyke size) and the resident and refilling magma composition and volatile content, in order to study the influence of these factors on the simulated dynamics. Simulation results allow to follow each step of the gas-rich magma ascent in the denser magma, highlighting the details of magma convection and mixing. In particular, the presence of more CO2 in the deep magma results in more ecient and faster dynamics. Through this simulations the variation of the gravimetric field has been determined. Afterward, the space-time distribution of stress resulting from numerical simulations have been used as boundary conditions for the simulations of the displacement field imposed by the magmatic dynamics on rocks. The properties of the simulated domain (rock density, P and S wave velocities) have been based on data from literature on active and passive tomographic experiments, obtained through a collaboration with A. Zollo at the Dept. of Physics of the Federici II Univeristy in Napoli. The elasto-dynamics simulations allow to determine the variations of the space-time distribution of deformation and the seismic signal associated with the studied magmatic dynamics. In particular, results show that these dynamics induce deformations similar to those measured at Campi Flegrei and seismic signals with energies concentrated on the typical frequency bands observed in volcanic areas. The present work shows that an approach based on the solution of equations describing the physics of processes within a magmatic fluid and the surrounding rock system is able to recognise and describe the relationships between geophysical signals detectable on the surface and deep magma dynamics. Therefore, the results suggest that the combined study of geophysical data and informations from numerical simulations can allow in a near future a more ecient evaluation of the short term volcanic hazard.

Catalytic liquid- and gas-phase oxidations for the synthesis of intermediates and specialty chemicals: some examples of industrial relevance

Nowadays, it is clear that the target of creating a sustainable future for the next generations requires to re-think the industrial application of chemistry. It is also evident that more sustainable chemical processes may be economically convenient, in comparison with the conventional ones, because fewer by-products means lower costs for raw materials, for separation and for disposal treatments; but also it implies an increase of productivity and, as a consequence, smaller reactors can be used. In addition, an indirect gain could derive from the better public image of the company, marketing sustainable products or processes. In this context, oxidation reactions play a major role, being the tool for the production of huge quantities of chemical intermediates and specialties. Potentially, the impact of these productions on the environment could have been much worse than it is, if a continuous efforts hadn’t been spent to improve the technologies employed. Substantial technological innovations have driven the development of new catalytic systems, the improvement of reactions and process technologies, contributing to move the chemical industry in the direction of a more sustainable and ecological approach. The roadmap for the application of these concepts includes new synthetic strategies, alternative reactants, catalysts heterogenisation and innovative reactor configurations and process design. Actually, in order to implement all these ideas into real projects, the development of more efficient reactions is one primary target. Yield, selectivity and space-time yield are the right metrics for evaluating the reaction efficiency. In the case of catalytic selective oxidation, the control of selectivity has always been the principal issue, because the formation of total oxidation products (carbon oxides) is thermodynamically more favoured than the formation of the desired, partially oxidized compound. As a matter of fact, only in few oxidation reactions a total, or close to total, conversion is achieved, and usually the selectivity is limited by the formation of by-products or co-products, that often implies unfavourable process economics; moreover, sometimes the cost of the oxidant further penalizes the process. During my PhD work, I have investigated four reactions that are emblematic of the new approaches used in the chemical industry. In the Part A of my thesis, a new process aimed at a more sustainable production of menadione (vitamin K3) is described. The “greener” approach includes the use of hydrogen peroxide in place of chromate (from a stoichiometric oxidation to a catalytic oxidation), also avoiding the production of dangerous waste. Moreover, I have studied the possibility of using an heterogeneous catalytic system, able to efficiently activate hydrogen peroxide. Indeed, the overall process would be carried out in two different steps: the first is the methylation of 1-naphthol with methanol to yield 2-methyl-1-naphthol, the second one is the oxidation of the latter compound to menadione. The catalyst for this latter step, the reaction object of my investigation, consists of Nb2O5-SiO2 prepared with the sol-gel technique. The catalytic tests were first carried out under conditions that simulate the in-situ generation of hydrogen peroxide, that means using a low concentration of the oxidant. Then, experiments were carried out using higher hydrogen peroxide concentration. The study of the reaction mechanism was fundamental to get indications about the best operative conditions, and improve the selectivity to menadione. In the Part B, I explored the direct oxidation of benzene to phenol with hydrogen peroxide. The industrial process for phenol is the oxidation of cumene with oxygen, that also co-produces acetone. This can be considered a case of how economics could drive the sustainability issue; in fact, the new process allowing to obtain directly phenol, besides avoiding the co-production of acetone (a burden for phenol, because the market requirements for the two products are quite different), might be economically convenient with respect to the conventional process, if a high selectivity to phenol were obtained. Titanium silicalite-1 (TS-1) is the catalyst chosen for this reaction. Comparing the reactivity results obtained with some TS-1 samples having different chemical-physical properties, and analyzing in detail the effect of the more important reaction parameters, we could formulate some hypothesis concerning the reaction network and mechanism. Part C of my thesis deals with the hydroxylation of phenol to hydroquinone and catechol. This reaction is already industrially applied but, for economical reason, an improvement of the selectivity to the para di-hydroxilated compound and a decrease of the selectivity to the ortho isomer would be desirable. Also in this case, the catalyst used was the TS-1. The aim of my research was to find out a method to control the selectivity ratio between the two isomers, and finally to make the industrial process more flexible, in order to adapt the process performance in function of fluctuations of the market requirements. The reaction was carried out in both a batch stirred reactor and in a re-circulating fixed-bed reactor. In the first system, the effect of various reaction parameters on catalytic behaviour was investigated: type of solvent or co-solvent, and particle size. With the second reactor type, I investigated the possibility to use a continuous system, and the catalyst shaped in extrudates (instead of powder), in order to avoid the catalyst filtration step. Finally, part D deals with the study of a new process for the valorisation of glycerol, by means of transformation into valuable chemicals. This molecule is nowadays produced in big amount, being a co-product in biodiesel synthesis; therefore, it is considered a raw material from renewable resources (a bio-platform molecule). Initially, we tested the oxidation of glycerol in the liquid-phase, with hydrogen peroxide and TS-1. However, results achieved were not satisfactory. Then we investigated the gas-phase transformation of glycerol into acrylic acid, with the intermediate formation of acrolein; the latter can be obtained by dehydration of glycerol, and then can be oxidized into acrylic acid. Actually, the oxidation step from acrolein to acrylic acid is already optimized at an industrial level; therefore, we decided to investigate in depth the first step of the process. I studied the reactivity of heterogeneous acid catalysts based on sulphated zirconia. Tests were carried out both in aerobic and anaerobic conditions, in order to investigate the effect of oxygen on the catalyst deactivation rate (one main problem usually met in glycerol dehydration). Finally, I studied the reactivity of bifunctional systems, made of Keggin-type polyoxometalates, either alone or supported over sulphated zirconia, in this way combining the acid functionality (necessary for the dehydrative step) with the redox one (necessary for the oxidative step). In conclusion, during my PhD work I investigated reactions that apply the “green chemistry” rules and strategies; in particular, I studied new greener approaches for the synthesis of chemicals (Part A and Part B), the optimisation of reaction parameters to make the oxidation process more flexible (Part C), and the use of a bioplatform molecule for the synthesis of a chemical intermediate (Part D).

Ein, zwei Punkte zu Nichtkommutativer Geometrie und Quantenfeldtheorie auf diskreten Räumen

Über viele Jahre hinweg wurden wieder und wieder Argumente angeführt, die diskreten Räumen gegenüber kontinuierlichen Räumen eine fundamentalere Rolle zusprechen. Unser Zugangzur diskreten Welt wird durch neuere Überlegungen der Nichtkommutativen Geometrie (NKG) bestimmt. Seit ca. 15Jahren gibt es Anstrengungen und auch Fortschritte, Physikmit Hilfe von Nichtkommutativer Geometrie besser zuverstehen. Nur eine von vielen Möglichkeiten ist dieReformulierung des Standardmodells derElementarteilchenphysik. Unter anderem gelingt es, auch denHiggs-Mechanismus geometrisch zu beschreiben. Das Higgs-Feld wird in der NKG in Form eines Zusammenhangs auf einer zweielementigen Menge beschrieben. In der Arbeit werden verschiedene Ziele erreicht:Quantisierung einer nulldimensionalen ,,Raum-Zeit'', konsistente Diskretisierungf'ur Modelle im nichtkommutativen Rahmen.Yang-Mills-Theorien auf einem Punkt mit deformiertemHiggs-Potenzial. Erweiterung auf eine ,,echte''Zwei-Punkte-Raum-Zeit, Abzählen von Feynman-Graphen in einer nulldimensionalen Theorie, Feynman-Regeln. Eine besondere Rolle werden Termini, die in derQuantenfeldtheorie ihren Ursprung haben, gewidmet. In diesemRahmen werden Begriffe frei von Komplikationen diskutiert,die durch etwaige Divergenzen oder Schwierigkeitentechnischer Natur verursacht werden könnten.Eichfixierungen, Geistbeiträge, Slavnov-Taylor-Identität undRenormierung. Iteratives Lösungsverfahren derDyson-Schwinger-Gleichung mit Computeralgebra-Unterstützung,die Renormierungsprozedur berücksichtigt.

Characterization of geothermal reservoirs’ parameters by inverse problem resolution and geostatistical simulations

BTES (borehole thermal energy storage)systems exchange thermal energy by conduction with the surrounding ground through borehole materials. The spatial variability of the geological properties and the space-time variability of hydrogeological conditions affect the real power rate of heat exchangers and, consequently, the amount of energy extracted from / injected into the ground. For this reason, it is not an easy task to identify the underground thermal properties to use when designing. At the current state of technology, Thermal Response Test (TRT) is the in situ test for the characterization of ground thermal properties with the higher degree of accuracy, but it doesn’t fully solve the problem of characterizing the thermal properties of a shallow geothermal reservoir, simply because it characterizes only the neighborhood of the heat exchanger at hand and only for the test duration. Different analytical and numerical models exist for the characterization of shallow geothermal reservoir, but they are still inadequate and not exhaustive: more sophisticated models must be taken into account and a geostatistical approach is needed to tackle natural variability and estimates uncertainty. The approach adopted for reservoir characterization is the “inverse problem”, typical of oil&gas field analysis. Similarly, we create different realizations of thermal properties by direct sequential simulation and we find the best one fitting real production data (fluid temperature along time). The software used to develop heat production simulation is FEFLOW 5.4 (Finite Element subsurface FLOW system). A geostatistical reservoir model has been set up based on literature thermal properties data and spatial variability hypotheses, and a real TRT has been tested. Then we analyzed and used as well two other codes (SA-Geotherm and FV-Geotherm) which are two implementation of the same numerical model of FEFLOW (Al-Khoury model).

Luis Cernuda: la realizzazione del desiderio

Le traduzioni di Luis Cernuda, poeta spagnolo della Generazione del '27, da testi poetici di autori francesi, tedeschi ed inglesi, la cui scelta è dettata da ragioni di coerenza artistica, non hanno valore secondario rispetto alla produzione poetica autoriale. Nel presente studio si delinea l'uniformità del percorso creativo di Luis Cernuda nel ruolo duplice ed apparentemente contraddittorio di poeta-traduttore, attraverso un tracciato spazio-temporale, al contempo realistico e metaforico, che si svolge lungo gran parte della vita del misconosciuto poeta sivigliano. Ad una preliminare presentazione analitica del concetto di traduzione, della funzione che la stessa riveste nel genere letterario specifico della poesia e nell'attività creativa di Cernuda, segue l'analisi comparativa delle traduzioni cernudiane con le rispettive fonti straniere. L'argomento si svolge in tre capitoli successivi, organizzati rispettando lo svolgimento cronologico del percorso traduttorio cernudiano, svolto in parallelo alla produzione poetica personale. Il secondo capitolo verte sulla traduzione da testi poetici in francese. Il terzo capitolo, sul periodo immediatamente successivo agli anni della sperimentazione francese, analizza lo studio della poesia tedesca e della sperimentazione in traduzione. Tale incontro si propone anche come momento di scissione definitiva dalla lirica romanza, piuttosto esornativa, e di accostamento alla più essenziale lirica germanica. Il quarto capitolo raccoglie le versioni poetiche da autori inglesi, che si contraddistinguono per la grande somiglianza alla poesia di Cernuda nelle scelte contenutistico-formali. Le conclusioni vertono sulla coesione perseguita nel tradurre, per cui contenuto e forma acquisiscono pari importanza nella “ricreazione poetica” realizzata da Cernuda.

Factorization and non-local 1/m b corrections in the decay B X s gamma

In this thesis, a systematic analysis of the bar B to X_sgamma photon spectrum in the endpoint region is presented. The endpoint region refers to a kinematic configuration of the final state, in which the photon has a large energy m_b-2E_gamma = O(Lambda_QCD), while the jet has a large energy but small invariant mass. Using methods of soft-collinear effective theory and heavy-quark effective theory, it is shown that the spectrum can be factorized into hard, jet, and soft functions, each encoding the dynamics at a certain scale. The relevant scales in the endpoint region are the heavy-quark mass m_b, the hadronic energy scale Lambda_QCD and an intermediate scale sqrt{Lambda_QCD m_b} associated with the invariant mass of the jet. It is found that the factorization formula contains two different types of contributions, distinguishable by the space-time structure of the underlying diagrams. On the one hand, there are the direct photon contributions which correspond to diagrams with the photon emitted directly from the weak vertex. The resolved photon contributions on the other hand arise at O(1/m_b) whenever the photon couples to light partons. In this work, these contributions will be explicitly defined in terms of convolutions of jet functions with subleading shape functions. While the direct photon contributions can be expressed in terms of a local operator product expansion, when the photon spectrum is integrated over a range larger than the endpoint region, the resolved photon contributions always remain non-local. Thus, they are responsible for a non-perturbative uncertainty on the partonic predictions. In this thesis, the effect of these uncertainties is estimated in two different phenomenological contexts. First, the hadronic uncertainties in the bar B to X_sgamma branching fraction, defined with a cut E_gamma > 1.6 GeV are discussed. It is found, that the resolved photon contributions give rise to an irreducible theory uncertainty of approximately 5 %. As a second application of the formalism, the influence of the long-distance effects on the direct CP asymmetry will be considered. It will be shown that these effects are dominant in the Standard Model and that a range of -0.6 < A_CP^SM < 2.8 % is possible for the asymmetry, if resolved photon contributions are taken into account.

Electroweak precision observables and effective four-fermion interactions in warped extra dimensions

In this thesis, we study the phenomenology of selected observables in the context of the Randall-Sundrum scenario of a compactified warpedrnextra dimension. Gauge and matter fields are assumed to live in the whole five-dimensional space-time, while the Higgs sector is rnlocalized on the infrared boundary. An effective four-dimensional description is obtained via Kaluza-Klein decomposition of the five dimensionalrnquantum fields. The symmetry breaking effects due to the Higgs sector are treated exactly, and the decomposition of the theory is performedrnin a covariant way. We develop a formalism, which allows for a straight-forward generalization to scenarios with an extended gauge group comparedrnto the Standard Model of elementary particle physics. As an application, we study the so-called custodial Randall-Sundrum model and compare the resultsrnto that of the original formulation. rnWe present predictions for electroweak precision observables, the Higgs production cross section at the LHC, the forward-backward asymmetryrnin top-antitop production at the Tevatron, as well as the width difference, the CP-violating phase, and the semileptonic CP asymmetry in B_s decays.

Spatial and temporal flower presentation in Apiaceae-Apioideae

Alle Doldengewächse (Apiaceae), darunter die größte, weltweit verbreitete Unterfamilie der Apioideen, weisen in ihren Blütenständen sehr einheitliche Merkmale auf. Die ‚Doppeldolden´ werden aus kleinen, weißen oder gelben Blüten gebildet und von vielen unspezialisierten Insekten besucht. Der uniforme Eindruck, der damit erweckt wird, ist unter Umständen ein Grund, dass die zugrundeliegende Morphologie bislang wenig untersucht wurde. Gegenstand der vorliegenden Dissertation ist es daher, die ‚verborgene Diversität´ im Blütenstandsbereich der Apiaceae -Apioideen mit dem Ziel darzustellen, den Einfluss der Architektur der Pflanzen auf die Art der Blütenpräsentation in Raum und Zeit und damit auf das Reproduktionssystem der Art zu ermitteln. Im ersten Kapitel zeigt der Vergleich von neun ausgewählten Arten, dass in den selbstfertilen und unspezifisch bestäubten Pflanzen durch Synchronisation und Rhythmik in der Präsentation von Blüten Fremdbefruchtung gefördert wird. Entweder durchlaufen die Pflanzen dabei nur eine getrennte männliche und weibliche Blühphase (Xanthoselinum alsaticum) oder der moduläre Bau der Pflanzen führt zu einer Folge männlicher und weiblicher Blühphasen (multizyklische Dichogamie). Die Diözie in Trinia glauca kann in diesem Zusammenhang als eine Trennung der Blühphasen auf verschiedengeschlechtliche Individuen gesehen werden. Für die andromonözischen Arten wird gezeigt, dass der Anteil funktional männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung nicht einheitlich zu- oder abnimmt. Dadurch fungieren die Pflanzen zu verschiedenen Zeiten und mit unterschiedlicher Stärke eher als Pollenrezeptoren oder Pollendonatoren. Es wird deutlich, dass das ‚uniforme Muster‘ der Apioideen mit Dolden verschiedener Ordnungen, dichogamen Blüten und deren diversen Geschlechtsausbildungen ein komplexes Raum-Zeit-Gefüge zur Optimierung des Reproduktionssystems darstellt. Das zweite Kapitel stellt die Ergebnisse von Manipulationsexperimenten (Handbestäubung, Bestäuberabschirmung, Entfernen von Dolden niedriger Ordnung) an Chaerophyllum bulbosum dar, die zeigen, dass das Raum-Zeit-Gefüge in der Präsentation der Blüten der Art erlaubt, flexibel auf Umwelteinflüsse zu reagieren. Es stellt sich heraus, dass mechanische Beschädigungen kaum Einfluss auf den Andromonöziegrad und prozentualen Fruchtansatz der Individuen nehmen. Grundvoraussetzung der Reaktionsfähigkeit ist wiederum deren modulärer Bau. Dieser erlaubt es den Pflanzen, zusammen mit dem andromonöziebedingten Reservoir an - geschlechtlich flexiblen - männlichen Blüten, in den später angelegten Dolden fehlenden Fruchtansatz der Blüten früh blühender Dolden zu kompensieren. Im dritten Kapitel wird eine vergleichende Merkmalsanalyse an 255 Apioideen-Arten vorgelegt, die alle Verwandtschaftskreise, Wuchsformen und Verbreitungsgebiete der Gruppe repräsentieren. Ziel der Analyse war die Identifizierung von Merkmalssyndromen, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Architektur und Reproduktionssystem verdeutlichen sollten. Interessanterweise sind die einzigen Merkmale, die miteinander einhergehen, Protogynie und die graduelle Abnahme männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung. Alle anderen Merkmale variieren unabhängig voneinander und erzeugen auf vielen verschiedenen Wegen immer wieder das gleiche Funktionsmuster, das als ‚breeding syndrome‘ der Apioideae gedeutet werden kann. Die Arbeit leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Verständnis der Blütenstände der Apiaceen und darüber hinaus zu morphologischer Variation in ‚unspezialisierten‘ Reproduktionssystemen. Offensichtlich liegt in den Apioideen der Selektionsdruck auf der Aufrechterhaltung der generalisistischen Bestäubung und überprägt alle morphologisch-phylogenetischen Merkmalsvarianten.

Raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität anhand von hochaufgelösten interpolierten Klimakarten am Beispiel von Europa (Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie)

Klimamontoring benötigt eine operative, raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität. Mit dieser Zielsetzung, funktionsbereite Karten regelmäßig zu erstellen, ist es hilfreich auf einen Blick, die räumliche Variabilität der Klimaelemente in der zeitlichen Veränderungen darzustellen. Für aktuelle und kürzlich vergangene Jahre entwickelte der Deutsche Wetterdienst ein Standardverfahren zur Erstellung solcher Karten. Die Methode zur Erstellung solcher Karten variiert für die verschiedenen Klimaelemente bedingt durch die Datengrundlage, die natürliche Variabilität und der Verfügbarkeit der in-situ Daten.rnIm Rahmen der Analyse der raum-zeitlichen Variabilität innerhalb dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Interpolationsverfahren auf die Mitteltemperatur der fünf Dekaden der Jahre 1951-2000 für ein relativ großes Gebiet, der Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie (Europa und Naher Osten) angewendet. Die Region deckt ein relativ heterogenes Arbeitsgebiet von Grönland im Nordwesten bis Syrien im Südosten hinsichtlich der Klimatologie ab.rnDas zentrale Ziel der Dissertation ist eine Methode zur räumlichen Interpolation der mittleren Dekadentemperaturwerte für die Region VI zu entwickeln. Diese Methode soll in Zukunft für die operative monatliche Klimakartenerstellung geeignet sein. Diese einheitliche Methode soll auf andere Klimaelemente übertragbar und mit der entsprechenden Software überall anwendbar sein. Zwei zentrale Datenbanken werden im Rahmen dieser Dissertation verwendet: So genannte CLIMAT-Daten über dem Land und Schiffsdaten über dem Meer.rnIm Grunde wird die Übertragung der Punktwerte der Temperatur per räumlicher Interpolation auf die Fläche in drei Schritten vollzogen. Der erste Schritt beinhaltet eine multiple Regression zur Reduktion der Stationswerte mit den vier Einflussgrößen der Geographischen Breite, der Höhe über Normalnull, der Jahrestemperaturamplitude und der thermischen Kontinentalität auf ein einheitliches Niveau. Im zweiten Schritt werden die reduzierten Temperaturwerte, so genannte Residuen, mit der Interpolationsmethode der Radialen Basis Funktionen aus der Gruppe der Neuronalen Netzwerk Modelle (NNM) interpoliert. Im letzten Schritt werden die interpolierten Temperaturraster mit der Umkehrung der multiplen Regression aus Schritt eins mit Hilfe der vier Einflussgrößen auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau hochgerechnet.rnFür alle Stationswerte wird die Differenz zwischen geschätzten Wert aus der Interpolation und dem wahren gemessenen Wert berechnet und durch die geostatistische Kenngröße des Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) wiedergegeben. Der zentrale Vorteil ist die wertegetreue Wiedergabe, die fehlende Generalisierung und die Vermeidung von Interpolationsinseln. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist auf andere Klimaelemente wie Niederschlag, Schneedeckenhöhe oder Sonnenscheindauer übertragbar.

Bianchi type II cosmology in Hořava–Lifshitz gravity

In this work a Bianchi type II space-time within the framework of projectable Horava Lifshitz gravity was investigated; the resulting field equations in the infrared limit λ = 1 were analyzed qualitatively. We have found the analytical solutions for a toy model in which only the higher curvature terms cubic in the spatial Ricci tensor are considered. The resulting behavior is still described by a transition among two Kasner epochs, but we have found a different transformation law of the Kasner exponents with respect to the one of Einstein's general relativity.

Point Process Methodology for On-line Spatio-temporal Disease Surveillance

The AEGISS (Ascertainment and Enhancement of Gastrointestinal Infection Surveillance and Statistics) project aims to use spatio-temporal statistical methods to identify anomalies in the space-time distribution of non-specific, gastrointestinal infections in the UK, using the Southampton area in southern England as a test-case. In this paper, we use the AEGISS project to illustrate how spatio-temporal point process methodology can be used in the development of a rapid-response, spatial surveillance system. Current surveillance of gastroenteric disease in the UK relies on general practitioners reporting cases of suspected food-poisoning through a statutory notification scheme, voluntary laboratory reports of the isolation of gastrointestinal pathogens and standard reports of general outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease by public health and environmental health authorities. However, most statutory notifications are made only after a laboratory reports the isolation of a gastrointestinal pathogen. As a result, detection is delayed and the ability to react to an emerging outbreak is reduced. For more detailed discussion, see Diggle et al. (2003). A new and potentially valuable source of data on the incidence of non-specific gastro-enteric infections in the UK is NHS Direct, a 24-hour phone-in clinical advice service. NHS Direct data are less likely than reports by general practitioners to suffer from spatially and temporally localized inconsistencies in reporting rates. Also, reporting delays by patients are likely to be reduced, as no appointments are needed. Against this, NHS Direct data sacrifice specificity. Each call to NHS Direct is classified only according to the general pattern of reported symptoms (Cooper et al, 2003). The current paper focuses on the use of spatio-temporal statistical analysis for early detection of unexplained variation in the spatio-temporal incidence of non-specific gastroenteric symptoms, as reported to NHS Direct. Section 2 describes our statistical formulation of this problem, the nature of the available data and our approach to predictive inference. Section 3 describes the stochastic model. Section 4 gives the results of fitting the model to NHS Direct data. Section 5 shows how the model is used for spatio-temporal prediction. The paper concludes with a short discussion.

Practical Large-Scale Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Particulate Matter Concentrations

The last two decades have seen intense scientific and regulatory interest in the health effects of particulate matter (PM). Influential epidemiological studies that characterize chronic exposure of individuals rely on monitoring data that are sparse in space and time, so they often assign the same exposure to participants in large geographic areas and across time. We estimate monthly PM during 1988-2002 in a large spatial domain for use in studying health effects in the Nurses' Health Study. We develop a conceptually simple spatio-temporal model that uses a rich set of covariates. The model is used to estimate concentrations of PM10 for the full time period and PM2.5 for a subset of the period. For the earlier part of the period, 1988-1998, few PM2.5 monitors were operating, so we develop a simple extension to the model that represents PM2.5 conditionally on PM10 model predictions. In the epidemiological analysis, model predictions of PM10 are more strongly associated with health effects than when using simpler approaches to estimate exposure. Our modeling approach supports the application in estimating both fine-scale and large-scale spatial heterogeneity and capturing space-time interaction through the use of monthly-varying spatial surfaces. At the same time, the model is computationally feasible, implementable with standard software, and readily understandable to the scientific audience. Despite simplifying assumptions, the model has good predictive performance and uncertainty characterization.

Multi-antenna non-line-of-sight identification techniques for target localization in mobile ad-hoc networks

Target localization has a wide range of military and civilian applications in wireless mobile networks. Examples include battle-field surveillance, emergency 911 (E911), traffc alert, habitat monitoring, resource allocation, routing, and disaster mitigation. Basic localization techniques include time-of-arrival (TOA), direction-of-arrival (DOA) and received-signal strength (RSS) estimation. Techniques that are proposed based on TOA and DOA are very sensitive to the availability of Line-of-sight (LOS) which is the direct path between the transmitter and the receiver. If LOS is not available, TOA and DOA estimation errors create a large localization error. In order to reduce NLOS localization error, NLOS identifcation, mitigation, and localization techniques have been proposed. This research investigates NLOS identifcation for multiple antennas radio systems. The techniques proposed in the literature mainly use one antenna element to enable NLOS identifcation. When a single antenna is utilized, limited features of the wireless channel can be exploited to identify NLOS situations. However, in DOA-based wireless localization systems, multiple antenna elements are available. In addition, multiple antenna technology has been adopted in many widely used wireless systems such as wireless LAN 802.11n and WiMAX 802.16e which are good candidates for localization based services. In this work, the potential of spatial channel information for high performance NLOS identifcation is investigated. Considering narrowband multiple antenna wireless systems, two xvNLOS identifcation techniques are proposed. Here, the implementation of spatial correlation of channel coeffcients across antenna elements as a metric for NLOS identifcation is proposed. In order to obtain the spatial correlation, a new multi-input multi-output (MIMO) channel model based on rough surface theory is proposed. This model can be used to compute the spatial correlation between the antenna pair separated by any distance. In addition, a new NLOS identifcation technique that exploits the statistics of phase difference across two antenna elements is proposed. This technique assumes the phases received across two antenna elements are uncorrelated. This assumption is validated based on the well-known circular and elliptic scattering models. Next, it is proved that the channel Rician K-factor is a function of the phase difference variance. Exploiting Rician K-factor, techniques to identify NLOS scenarios are proposed. Considering wideband multiple antenna wireless systems which use MIMO-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signaling, space-time-frequency channel correlation is exploited to attain NLOS identifcation in time-varying, frequency-selective and spaceselective radio channels. Novel NLOS identi?cation measures based on space, time and frequency channel correlation are proposed and their performances are evaluated. These measures represent a better NLOS identifcation performance compared to those that only use space, time or frequency.

Topographic and meteorological influences on spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

Characterizing the spatial scaling and dynamics of convective precipitation in mountainous terrain and the development of downscaling methods to transfer precipitation fields from one scale to another is the overall motivation for this research. Substantial progress has been made on characterizing the space-time organization of Midwestern convective systems and tropical rainfall, which has led to the development of statistical/dynamical downscaling models. Space-time analysis and downscaling of orographic precipitation has received less attention due to the complexities of topographic influences. This study uses multiscale statistical analysis to investigate the spatial scaling of organized thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall and flooding in mountainous regions. Focus is placed on the eastern and western slopes of the Appalachian region and the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Parameter estimates are analyzed over time and attention is given to linking changes in the multiscale parameters with meteorological forcings and orographic influences on the rainfall. Influences of geographic regions and predominant orographic controls on trends in multiscale properties of precipitation are investigated. Spatial resolutions from 1 km to 50 km are considered. This range of spatial scales is needed to bridge typical scale gaps between distributed hydrologic models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and attempts to address the open research problem of scaling organized thunderstorms and convection in mountainous terrain down to 1-4 km scales.

Lag Camera: A Moving Multi-Camera Array for Scene-Acquisition

Many applications, such as telepresence, virtual reality, and interactive walkthroughs, require a three-dimensional(3D)model of real-world environments. Methods, such as lightfields, geometric reconstruction and computer vision use cameras to acquire visual samples of the environment and construct a model. Unfortunately, obtaining models of real-world locations is a challenging task. In particular, important environments are often actively in use, containing moving objects, such as people entering and leaving the scene. The methods previously listed have difficulty in capturing the color and structure of the environment while in the presence of moving and temporary occluders. We describe a class of cameras called lag cameras. The main concept is to generalize a camera to take samples over space and time. Such a camera, can easily and interactively detect moving objects while continuously moving through the environment. Moreover, since both the lag camera and occluder are moving, the scene behind the occluder is captured by the lag camera even from viewpoints where the occluder lies in between the lag camera and the hidden scene. We demonstrate an implementation of a lag camera, complete with analysis and captured environments.