Social attitude toward sustainable development in 2025: A case for reinforcing scenario design

This paper shows the role that some foresight tools, such as scenario design, may play in exploring the future impacts of global challenges in our contemporary Society. Additionally, it provides some clues about how to reinforce scenario design so that it displays more in-depth analysis without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages. Since its inception in the early seventies, scenario design has become one of the most popular foresight tools used in several fields of knowledge. Nevertheless, its wide acceptance has not been seconded by the urban planning academic and professional realm. In some instances, scenario design is just perceived as a story telling technique that generates oversimplified future visions without the support of rigorous and sound analysis. As a matter of fact, the potential of scenario design for providing more in-depth analysis and for connecting with quantitative methods has been generally missed, giving arguments away to its critics. Based on these premises, this document tries to prove the capability of scenario design to anticipate the impacts of complex global challenges and to do it in a more analytical way. These assumptions are tested through a scenario design exercise which explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm (SD) and its implications in the Spanish urban development model. In order to reinforce the perception of scenario design as a useful and added value instrument to urban planners, three sets of implications –functional, parametric and spatial— are displayed to provide substantial and in-depth information for policy makers. This study shows some major findings. First, it is feasible to set up a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. Second, there are opportunities for innovating in the Spanish urban planning processes and city governance models. Third, as a foresight tool, scenario design can be substantially reinforced if proper efforts are made to display functional, parametric and spatial implications generated by the scenarios. Fourth, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners, such as anticipating changes, formulating visions, fostering participation and building networks

Optimal and Long-Term Dynamic Transport Policy Design: Seeking Maximum Social Welfare through a Pricing Scheme.

This article presents an alternative approach to the decision-making process in transport strategy design. The study explores the possibility of integrating forecasting, assessment and optimization procedures in support of a decision-making process designed to reach the best achievable scenario through mobility policies. Long-term evaluation, as required by a dynamic system such as a city, is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The social welfare achieved by implementing mobility LUTI model policies is measured through a cost-benefit analysis and maximized through an optimization process throughout the evaluation period. The method is tested by optimizing a pricing policy scheme in Madrid on a cordon toll in a context requiring system efficiency, social equity and environmental quality. The optimized scheme yields an appreciable increase in social surplus through a relatively low rate compared to other similar pricing toll schemes. The results highlight the different considerations regarding mobility impacts on the case study area, as well as the major contributors to social welfare surplus. This leads the authors to reconsider the cost-analysis approach, as defined in the study, as the best option for formulating sustainability measures.

Optimal and Long-Term Dynamic Transport Policy Design: Seeking Maximum Social Welfare through a Pricing Scheme

This article presents an alternative approach to the decision-making process in transport strategy design. The study explores the possibility of integrating forecasting, assessment and optimization procedures in support of a decision-making process designed to reach the best achievable scenario through mobility policies. Long-term evaluation, as required by a dynamic system such as a city, is provided by a strategic Land-Use and Transport Interaction (LUTI) model. The social welfare achieved by implementing mobility LUTI model policies is measured through a cost-benefit analysis and maximized through an optimization process throughout the evaluation period. The method is tested by optimizing a pricing policy scheme in Madrid on a cordon toll in a context requiring system efficiency, social equity and environmental quality. The optimized scheme yields an appreciable increase in social surplus through a relatively low rate compared to other similar pricing toll schemes. The results highlight the different considerations regarding mobility impacts on the case study area, as well as the major contributors to social welfare surplus. This leads the authors to reconsider the cost-analysis approach, as defined in the study, as the best option for formulating sustainability measures.

Terremoto 2010 en Chile y vivienda social: resultados y aprendizajes para recomendación de políticas públicas

El territorio chileno esta propenso, desde antes que se constituyera como nación, al impacto del comportamiento de la naturaleza que le es inherente y que también le produce daños. Está representado en los seísmos, los más dañinos. Todavía, la sociedad chilena no termina de comprender que esos daños, son parte de un desequilibrio de una convivencia armoniosa entre ella y esa naturaleza, puesto que el ser humano que vive y habita sobre ella, también lo es. Así entonces, cada vez que el territorio y su espacio son remecidos por los seísmos, la naturaleza, manifestada en la sociedad, adquiere nuevos aprendizajes para mejorar la respuesta al próximo evento. El terremoto 2010 de 8.8° Richter, fue el segundo de mayor magnitud después del otro que hasta ahora, es el más grande del planeta, y que pudo ser medido. Aquel, fue el terremoto de Valdivia de 9,5° Richter, ocurrido el 22 de mayo de 1960. Las sociedades no son estáticas, cambian, son dinámicas. Esta vez el seísmo del 2010, ocurrió en una sociedad que hace ya 35 años, adoptó un modelo de economía de libre mercado. La pobreza que tenía a 1990, era de aproximadamente, un 40%. La del 2010, de un 14%. Durante la dictadura militar hubo otro seísmo de 7,8° Richter, recién instalándose el modelo aludido. El del 2010, permite sacar conclusiones en el contexto de este modelo económico. Los resultados aparentemente son interesantes en cuanto a que hubo pocas víctimas pero por otra parte, hubo un gran daño económico. La tesis profundiza en el impacto del seísmo en la dimensión del parque habitacional construido y de la vivienda social y en los habitantes más pobres y vulnerables. Es la primera investigación sobre seísmos y vivienda social en Chile. Se asume la hipótesis que ciertas variables por una parte, y una cultura antisísmica por otra, están presentes y han penetrado en los sectores populares durante los últimos 50 años y que ello, podría estar en la base de los resultados obtenidos. Se plantea una suerte de “matrimonio bien avenido” entre el habitante y políticas públicas en vivienda. De ello, se derivan recomendaciones para mejorar los avances en el problema investigado que se contextualizan en referencia al marco teórico elaborado. Sin embargo, y no obstante lo investigado, lo ya avanzado no garantiza buenos resultados en el próximo evento, Por ello, los aprendizajes nutren a otros, nuevos, que acompañarán a la sociedad chilena en su esencia e identidad como nación. ABSTRACT Long before its establishment as an independent nation, the Chilean territory has been prone to the impact of nature, which is an inherent and damaging feature of this land. Such an impact is represented by earthquakes, which are regarded as the most damaging natural disasters. Today, the Chilean society is still unable to understand that these impacts are part of an unbalanced coexistence between individuals and nature since human beings, who live and inhabit this space, are also an element of nature. Therefore, each time this territory is hit by earthquakes, nature —represented by society— learns new lessons in order to provide a better response to future events. The 2010 earthquake, which rated 8.8 on the Richter scale, was the second largest earthquake after the most powerful earthquake ever recorded. Such an event was the Valdivia earthquake of May 22, 1960, which rated 9.5 on the Richter scale. Societies are not static as they are changing and dynamic. The 2010 earthquake took place within a context in which society operated under a free market economy model that had been running for 35 years. As of 1990, 40 per cent of the population lived in poverty; in 2010, such a figure was reduced to 14 per cent. Likewise, a magnitude 7.8 quake struck the country during the military regime period in the early days of the above model. The 2010 earthquake allows us to draw some conclusions within the context of this economic model. Results are interesting since there were few fatalities but significant economic loss. This thesis provides insights into the impact of the 2010 earthquake on the housing stock, social housing and those living in poverty and vulnerability. This is the first research on earthquakes and social housing conducted in Chile. The hypothesis is that certain variables and anti-seismic culture have permeated popular segments of the population over the last 50 years. The latter may be at the basis of the results obtained during this research. Likewise, this study proposes a certain “happy marriage” between the inhabitant and public policies on housing. The above offers some recommendations intended to further explore this issue; these suggestions are contextualized according to the theoretical framework developed in this research. However, current progress on this matter does not ensure positive results in the event of an earthquake. This is why these lessons will serve as models for future events, which are intrinsically tied to local society and Chilean identity.

Discursive constructions of social and environmental accounting in Brazil: the case of Petrobras.

In the 29 years following \"Our Common Future\" by the United Nations, there is considerable debate among governments, civil society, interest groups and business organisations about what constitutes sustainable development, which constitutes evidence for a contested discourse concerning sustainability. The purpose of this study is to understand this debate in the developing economic context of Brazil, and in particular, to understand and critique the social and environmental accounting [SEA] discursive constructions relating to the State-owned, Petrobras as well as to understand the Brazilian literature on SEA. The discourse theory [DT]-based analysis employs rhetorical redescription to analyse twenty-two reports from Petrobras from 2004-2013. I investigate the political notions by employing the methodological framework of the Logics of Critical Explanation [LCE]. LCE engenders five methodological steps: problematisation, retroduction, logics (social, political and fantasmatic), articulation and critique. The empirical discussion suggests that the hegemony of economic development operates to obfuscate, rhetorically, the development of sustainability, so as to maintain the core business of Petrobras conceived as capital accumulation. Equally, these articulations also illustrate how the constructions of SEA operate to serve the company\'s purpose with few (none) profound changes in integration of sustainability. The Brazilian literature on SEA sustains the status quo of neo-liberal market policies that operate to protect the dominant business case approach to maintain an agenda of wealth-creation in relation to social and environmental needs. The articulations of the case manifested in policies regarding, for example, corruption, which involved over-payments for contracts and unsustainable practices relating to the use of fossil fuels and demonstrated that there was antagonism between action and disclosure. The corruption scandal that emerged after SEA disclosures highlighted the rhetorical nature of disclosure when financial resources were subtracted from the company for political parties and engineering contractors hid facts through incomplete disclosures. The articulations of SEA misrepresent a broader context of the meanings associated with sustainability, which restricted the constructions of SEA to principally serve and represent the intention of the most powerful groups. The significance of SEA, then is narrowed to represent particular interests. The study argues for more critical studies as limited Brazilian literature concerning SEA kept a \'safe distance\' from substantively critiquing the constructions of SEA and its articulations in the Brazilian context. The literature review and the Petrobras\' case illustrate a variety of naming, instituting and articulatory practices that endeavour to maintain the current hegemony of development in an emerging economy, which allows Petrobras to continue to exercise significant profit at the expense of the social and environmental. The constructed idea of development in Petrobras\' discourses emphasises a rhetoric of wider development, but, in reality, these discourses were the antithesis of political, social and ethical developmental issues. These constructions aim to hide struggles between social inequalities and exploitation of natural resources and constitute excuses about a fanciful notion of rhetorical and hegemonic neo-liberal development. In summary, this thesis contributes to the prior literature in five ways: (i) the addition of DT to the analysis of SEA enhances the discussion of political elements such as hegemony, antagonism, logic of equivalence/difference, ideology and articulation; (ii) the analysis of an emerging economy such as Brazil incorporates a new perspective of the discussion of the discourses of SEA and development; (iii) this thesis includes a focus on rhetoric to discuss the maintenance of the status quo; (iv) the holistic structure of the LCE approach enlarges the understanding of the social, political and fantasmatic logics of SEA studies and; (v) this thesis combines an analysis of the literature and the case of Petrobras to characterise and critique the state of the Brazilian academy and its impacts and reflections on the significance of SEA. This thesis, therefore, argues for more critical studies in the Brazilian academy due to the persistence of idea of SEA and development that takes-for-granted deep exclusions and contradictions and provide little space for critiques.

Market analysis and consumer impacts source document. Part I: the motor vehicle market in the late 1970's. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

The Social Justice and Societal Impact of Public Programs in House Museums

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Digital Activism: How Social Media Prevalence has Impacted Modern Activism

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

State Social Safety Net Programs and the Great Recession: The First Line of Defense and the Last Resort for the Economically Disadvantaged

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Relations between social support, appraisal and coping and both positive and negative outcomes for children of a parent with multiple sclerosis and comparisons with children of healthy parents

Objective: To examine adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis within a stress and coping framework and compare them with those who have 'healthy' parents. Subjects: A total of 193 participants between 10 and 25 years completed questionnaires; 48 youngsters who had a parent with multiple sclerosis and 145 youngsters who reported that they did not have a parent with an illness or disability. Method: A questionnaire survey methodology was used. Variable sets included caregiving context (e.g. additional parental illness, family responsibilities, parental functional impairment, choice in helping), social support (network size, satisfaction), stress appraisal, coping (problem solving, seeking support, acceptance, wishful thinking, denial), and positive (life satisfaction, positive affect, benefits) and negative (distress, health) adjustment outcomes. Results: Caregiving context variables significantly correlated with poorer adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis included additional parental illness, higher family responsibilities, parental functional impairment and unpredictability of the parent's multiple sclerosis, and less choice in helping. As predicted, better adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis was related to higher levels of social support, lower stress appraisals, greater reliance on approach coping strategies (problem solving, seeking support and acceptance) and less reliance on avoidant coping (wishful thinking and denial). Compared with children of 'healthy' parents, children of a parent with multiple sclerosis reported greater family responsibilities, less reliance on problem solving and seeking social support coping, higher somatization and lower life satisfaction and positive affect. Conclusions: Findings delineate the key impacts of young caregiving and support a stress and coping model of adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis.

Festival attendance and the development of social capital

Festivals are emerging worldwide as a growing and vibrant sector of the tourism and leisure industries and are seen to have significant economic, socio-cultural, and political impacts on the destination area and host groups. While there are a number of scholars working on developing valid models to determine the economic impact of festivals on host communities, there are few studies published which focus on the social, cultural, and/or political impacts of festivals and events. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to determine the degree to which festival attendance facilitates the augmentation of social capital by drawing upon the literature from various disciplines in order to conceptualize the synergy between festivals and social capital. To achieve this, the paper will (1) examine the relevant literature on the key characteristics of ‘festivals’ as distinct from other events and (2) investigate the current uses of the notion of ‘social capital’ within the academic debates in a variety of disciplinary contexts

Humpback whale social sounds: Sources levels and response to playback

Humpback whale ‘‘social sounds’’ appear to be used in communication when whales interact but they have received little study in comparison to the song. During experiments as part of the Humpback whale Acoustics Research Collaboration (HARC), whales migrating past the study site on the east coast of Australia produced a wide range of social sounds. Whales were tracked visually using a theodolite and singers were tracked acoustically using an array of five widely spaced hydrophones. Source levels of social sounds were calculated from the received level of the sounds, corrected for measured propagation loss. Playbacks of social sounds were made using a J11 transducer and the consequent reactions were recorded in terms of the change in direction of the migrating whales in relation to the playback position. In one playback, a DTAG was place on a female with calf. Playback of social sounds resulted in significant changes in the course of the migrating whales, in some cases towards the transducer while in others it was away from the transducer. From the estimates of source levels it is possible to assess the effectiveness of the playback and the range of influence of social sounds. [Work supported by ONR and DSTO.]