Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum

Solar outputs during the current solar minimum are setting record low values for the space age. Evidence is here reviewed that this is part of a decline in solar activity from a grand solar maximum and that the Sun has returned to a state that last prevailed in 1924. Recent research into what this means, and does not mean, for climate change is reviewed.

Reproducibility of a short semi-quantitative food group questionnaire and its performance in estimating nutrient intake compared with a 7-day diet diary in the Million Women Study

Objectives: To assess the short- and long-term reproducibility of a short food group questionnaire, and to compare its performance for estimating nutrient intakes in comparison with a 7-day diet diary. Design: Participants for the reproducibility study completed the food group questionnaire at two time points, up to 2 years apart. Participants for the performance study completed both the food group questionnaire and a 7-day diet diary a few months apart. Reproducibility was assessed by kappa statistics and percentage change between the two questionnaires; performance was assessed by kappa statistics, rank correlations and percentages of participants classified into the same and opposite thirds of intake. Setting: A random sample of participants in the Million Women Study, a population-based prospective study in the UK. Subjects: In total, 12 221 women aged 50-64 years. Results: in the reproducibility study, 75% of the food group items showed at least moderate agreement for all four time-point comparisons. Items showing fair agreement or worse tended to be those where few respondents reported eating them more than once a week, those consumed in small amounts and those relating to types of fat consumed. Compared with the diet diary, the food group questionnaire showed consistently reasonable performance for the nutrients carbohydrate, saturated fat, cholesterol, total sugars, alcohol, fibre, calcium, riboflavin, folate and vitamin C. Conclusions: The short food group questionnaire used in this study has been shown to be reproducible over time and to perform reasonably well for the assessment of a number of dietary nutrients.

Motivation in second language acquisition in Chinese research students in the UK

The present study sets out to examine motivation to learn English by Chinese research students in an informal setting. Data were collected, using semi-structured interviews, from four research students at two points in time during their first year in the UK. The main findings are: they believed that learning English was important; their main goal orientations were instrumental and extrinsic; they set learning goals and persisted to attain them; they valued their current learning environment in general and saw it as supportive of their goals; they held both positive and negative attitudes towards the British, which had differential effects on their motivation; their self-perceived support seemed to have a positive impact on their motivation and the development of self-confidence; they tended to attribute their success to stable causes such as the environment and failure to unstable but controllable causes such as effort. It is concluded that qualitative data of this kind may complement insights from quantitative research. Implications for target country institutions in the provision of support are discussed.

Intakes and sources of isoflavones, lignans, enterolignans, coumestrol and soya-containing foods in the Norfolk arm of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk), from 7-day food diaries, using a newly updated database

Objective: A phytoestrogen-rich diet has been suggested to protect against a variety of common diseases but UK intake data on phytoestrogens or their food sources is sparse. This study aims to estimate the average intake of isoflavones, lignans, enterolignans and coumestrol from 7-day food diaries (7dFD), and to provide data on total isoflavone, lignan and phytoestrogen consumption by food group. Design: Development of a food composition database for twelve phytoestrogens and analysis of soya food and phytoestrogen consumption in a population-based study. Setting: Men and women, aged 40-79 years from the general population participating in EPIC-Norfolk between 1993 and 1997, with nutrient and food data from 7dFD. Subjects: A subset of 20 437 participants. Results: The median daily phytoestrogen intake for men was 1.20mg (interquartile range (IQR) 0.93-1.54 mg; mean 1.50 mg, SD 1.50 mg) and 0.89 mg for women (IQR 0.71-1.14 mg; mean 1.20 mg, SD 1.70 mg). In soya-consumers (SC), median daily intakes were higher: 2.86 mg in men (IQR – 1.30-7.27mg; mean 5.05 mg, SD 5.03 mg) and 3.14 mg in women (IQR – 1.09-7.33mg; mean 5.40 mg, SD 6.09 mg). In both men and women, bread made the greatest contribution to phytoestrogen intake – 40.7% and 35.7% respectively. In SC men and women, vegetable dishes and soya/goat’s/sheep’s milks were the main contributors – 42.6% and 18.9% in men and 38.8% and 29.1% in women, respectively. Conclusions: The ability to estimate phytoestrogen intake in Western populations more accurately will aid investigations into their suggested effects on health.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa elastase disables proteinase-activated receptor 2 in respiratory epithelial cells

Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a major lung pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients, secretes an elastolytic metalloproteinase (EPa) contributing to bacterial pathogenicity. Proteinase-activated receptor 2 (PAR2), implicated in the pulmonary innate defense, is activated by the cleavage of its extracellular N-terminal domain, unmasking a new N-terminal sequence starting with SLIGKV, which binds intramolecularly and activates PAR2. We show that EPa cleaves the N-terminal domain of PAR2 from the cell surface without triggering receptor endocytosis as trypsin does. As evaluated by measurements of cytosolic calcium as well as prostaglandin E(2) and interleukin-8 production, this cleavage does not activate PAR2, but rather disarms the receptor for subsequent activation by trypsin, but not by the synthetic receptor-activating peptide, SLIGKV-NH(2). Proteolysis by EPa of synthetic peptides representing the N-terminal cleavage/activation sequences of either human or rat PAR2 indicates that cleavages resulting from EPa activity would not produce receptor-activating tethered ligands, but would disarm PAR2 in regard to any further activating proteolysis by activating proteinases. Our data indicate that a pathogen-derived proteinase like EPa can potentially silence the function of PAR2 in the respiratory tract, thereby altering the host innate defense mechanisms and respiratory functions, and thus contributing to pathogenesis in the setting of a disease like CF.

Accelerated loss of alpine glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, south-eastern Siberia

The recession of mountain glaciers around the world has been linked to anthropogenic climate change and small glaciers (e.g. < 2 km2) are thought to be particularly vulnerable, with reports of their disappearance from several regions. However, the response of small glaciers to climate change can be modulated by non-climatic factors such as topography and debris cover and there remain a number of regions where their recent change has evaded scrutiny. This paper presents results of the first multi-year remote sensing survey of glaciers in the Kodar Mountains, the only glaciers in SE Siberia, which we compare to previous glacier inventories from this continental setting that reported total glacier areas of 18.8 km2 in ca. 1963 (12.6 km2 of exposed ice) and 15.5 km2 in 1974 (12 km2 of exposed ice). Mapping their debris-covered termini is difficult but delineation of debris-free ice on Landsat imagery reveals 34 glaciers with a total area of 11.72 ± 0.72 km2 in 1995, followed by a reduction to 9.53 ± 0.29 km2 in 2001 and 7.01 ± 0.23 km2 in 2010. This represents a ~ 44% decrease in exposed glacier ice between ca. 1963 and 2010, but with 40% lost since 1995 and with individual glaciers losing as much as 93% of their exposed ice. Thus, although continental glaciers are generally thought to be less sensitive than their maritime counterparts, a recent acceleration in shrinkage of exposed ice has taken place and we note its coincidence with a strong summer warming trend in the region initiated at the start of the 1980s. Whilst smaller and shorter glaciers have, proportionally, tended to shrink more rapidly, we find no statistically significant relationship between shrinkage and elevation characteristics, aspect or solar radiation. This is probably due to the small sample size, limited elevation range, and topographic setting of the glaciers in deep valleys-heads. Furthermore, many of the glaciers possess debris-covered termini and it is likely that the ablation of buried ice is lagging the shrinkage of exposed ice, such that a growth in the proportion of debris cover is occurring, as observed elsewhere. If recent trends continue, we hypothesise that glaciers could evolve into a type of rock glacier within the next few decades, introducing additional complexity in their response and delaying their potential demise.

Development of novel methods to determine crystalline glucose content of honey based on DSC, HPLC, and viscosity measurements and their use to examine the setting propensity of honey

Crystallization must occur in honey in order to produce set or creamed honey; however, the process must occur in a controlled manner in order to obtain an acceptable product. As a consequence, reliable methods are needed to measure the crystal content of honey (φ expressed as kg crystal per kg honey), which can also be implemented with relative ease in industrial production facilities. Unfortunately, suitable methods do not currently exist. This article reports on the development of 2 independent offline methods to measure the crystal content in honey based on differential scanning calorimetry and high-performance liquid chromatography. The 2 methods gave highly consistent results on the basis of paired t-test involving 143 experimental points (P > 0.05, r**2 = 0.99). The crystal content also correlated with the relative viscosity, defined as the ratio of the viscosity of crystal containing honey to that of the same honey when all crystals are dissolved, giving the following correlation: μr = 1 + 1398.8∅**2.318. This correlation can be used to estimate the crystal content of honey in industrial production facilities. The crystal growth rate at a temperature of 14 ◦C—the normal crystallization temperature used in practice—was linear, and the growth rate also increased with the total glucose content in the honey.

Cortical thickness changes in the non-lesioned hemisphere associated with non-paretic arm immobilization in modified CI therapy

Recent evidence suggests that immobilization of the upper limb for 2–3 weeks induces changes in cortical thickness as well as motor performance. In constraint induced (CI) therapy, one of the most effective interventions for hemiplegia, the non-paretic arm is constrained to enforce the use of the paretic arm in the home setting. With the present study we aimed to explore whether non-paretic arm immobilization in CI therapy induces structural changes in the non-lesioned hemisphere, and how these changes are related to treatment benefit. 31 patients with chronic hemiparesis participated in CI therapy with (N = 14) and without (N = 17) constraint. Motor ability scores were acquired before and after treatment. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data was obtained prior to treatment. Cortical thickness was measured with the Freesurfer software. In both groups cortical thickness in the contralesional primary somatosensory cortex increased and motor function improved with the intervention. However the cortical thickness change was not associated with the magnitude of motor function improvement. Moreover, the treatment effect and the cortical thickness change were not significantly different between the constraint and the non-constraint groups. There was no correlation between fractional anisotropy changes in the non-lesioned hemisphere and treatment outcome. CI therapy induced cortical thickness changes in contralesional sensorimotor regions, but this effect does not appear to be driven by the immobilization of the non-paretic arm, as indicated by the absence of differences between the constraint and the non-constraint groups. Our data does not suggest that the arm immobilization used in CI therapy is associated with noticeable cortical thinning.

Variation, asymmetry and working memory in the process of second language acquisition

Calls for understanding the interface between L2 linguistic knowledge and development (Gregg 1996; Carroll 2001; Towell 2003) provide a context for analysing the role of memory (Paradis 2004), specifically working memory (Baddeley 1986, 2003) in L2 development. Miyake and Friedman (1998) have claimed that Working Memory (WM) may be the key to L2 acquisition, especially in explaining individual variation in L2 acquisition. Recent findings found a robust connection between greater working memory (WM) capacity and rapid, successful acquisition of L2 vocabulary, reading and oral fluency (Service 1992; Harrington and Sawyer 1992; Fortkamp 1999). This study adds to the growing body of research by investigating correlations between WM and variation in grammatical development, focusing on asymmetries in processing L2 English wh-constructions in an immersion setting.

Punishing the foreigner: implicit discrimination in the Premier League based on oppositional identity

We present the first empirical study to reveal the presence of implicit discrimination in a non-experimental setting. By using a large dataset of in-match data in the English Premier League, we show that white referees award significantly more yellow cards against non-white players of oppositional identity. We argue that this is the result of implicit discrimination by showing that this discriminatory behaviour: (i) increases in how rushed the referee is before making a decision, and (ii) it increases in the level of ambiguity of the decision. The variation in (i) and (ii) cannot be explained by any form of conscious discrimination such as taste-based or statistical discrimination. Moreover, we show that oppositional identity players do not differ in their behaviour from other players along several dimensions related to aggressiveness and style of play providing further evidence that this is not statistical discrimination.

The look: style, technology and televisuality in the New Who

This chapter explores the distinctive qualities of the Matt Smith era Doctor Who, focusing on how dramatic emphases are connected with emphases on visual style, and how this depends on the programme's production methods and technologies. Doctor Who was first made in the 1960s era of live, studio-based, multi-camera television with monochrome pictures. However, as technical innovations like colour filming, stereo sound, CGI and post-production effects technology have been routinely introduced into the programme, and now High Definition (HD) cameras, they have given Doctor Who’s creators new ways of making visually distinctive narratives. Indeed, it has been argued that since the 1980s television drama has become increasingly like cinema in its production methods and aesthetic aims. Viewers’ ability to view the programme on high-specification TV sets, and to record and repeat episodes using digital media, also encourage attention to visual style in television as much as in cinema. The chapter evaluates how these new circumstances affect what Doctor Who has become and engages with arguments that visual style has been allowed to override characterisation and story in the current Doctor Who. The chapter refers to specific episodes, and frames the analysis with reference to earlier years in Doctor Who’s long history. For example, visual spectacle using green-screen and CGI can function as a set-piece (at the opening or ending of an episode) but can also work ‘invisibly’ to render a setting realistically. Shooting on location using HD cameras provides a rich and detailed image texture, but also highlights mistakes and especially problems of lighting. The reduction of Doctor Who’s budget has led to Steven Moffat’s episodes relying less on visual extravagance, connecting back both to Russell T. Davies’s concern to show off the BBC’s investment in the series but also to reference British traditions of gritty and intimate social drama. Pressures to capitalise on Doctor Who as a branded product are the final aspect of the chapter’s analysis, where the role of Moffat as ‘showrunner’ links him to an American (not British) style of television production where the preservation of format and brand values give him unusual power over the look of the series.

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

'Mental mobility’ in the digital age: entrepreneurs and the online home-based business

Home-based online business ventures are an increasingly pervasive yet under-researched phenomenon. The experiences and mindset of entrepreneurs setting up and running such enterprises require better understanding. Using data from a qualitative study of 23 online home-based business entrepreneurs, we propose the augmented concept of ‘mental mobility’ to encapsulate how they approach their business activities. Drawing on Howard P. Becker's early theorising of mobility, together with Victor Turner's later notion of liminality, we conceptualise mental mobility as the process through which individuals navigate the liminal spaces between the physical and digital spheres of work and the overlapping home/workplace, enabling them to manipulate and partially reconcile the spatial, temporal and emotional tensions that are present in such work environments. Our research also holds important applications for alternative employment contexts and broader social orderings because of the increasingly pervasive and disruptive influence of technology on experiences of remunerated work.

Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.