Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Metaheuristhic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.

Proposal of a short-form version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale

OBJECTIVE To propose a short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. METHODS Two samples were used to test the results obtained in the analyses in two distinct scenarios. One of the studies was composed of 230 low income families from Pelotas, RS, Southern Brazil, and the other was composed of 15,575 women, whose data were obtained from the 2006 National Survey on Demography and Health. Two models were tested, the first containing seven questions, and the second, the five questions that were considered the most relevant ones in the concordance analysis. The models were compared to the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, and the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy parameters were calculated, as well as the kappa agreement test. RESULTS Comparing the prevalence of food insecurity between the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale and the two models, the differences were around 2 percentage points. In the sensitivity analysis, the short version of seven questions obtained 97.8% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively, while specificity was 100% in both studies. The five-question model showed similar results (sensitivity of 95.7% and 99.5% in the Pelotas sample and in the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, respectively). In the Pelotas sample, the kappa test of the seven-question version totaled 97.0% and that of the five-question version, 95.0%. In the National Survey on Demography and Health sample, the two models presented a 99.0% kappa. CONCLUSIONS We suggest that the model with five questions should be used as the short version of the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale, as its results were similar to the original scale with a lower number of questions. This version needs to be administered to other populations in Brazil in order to allow for the adequate assessment of the validity parameters.

Handling random errors and biases in methods used for short-term dietary assessment

Epidemiological studies have shown the effect of diet on the incidence of chronic diseases; however, proper planning, designing, and statistical modeling are necessary to obtain precise and accurate food consumption data. Evaluation methods used for short-term assessment of food consumption of a population, such as tracking of food intake over 24h or food diaries, can be affected by random errors or biases inherent to the method. Statistical modeling is used to handle random errors, whereas proper designing and sampling are essential for controlling biases. The present study aimed to analyze potential biases and random errors and determine how they affect the results. We also aimed to identify ways to prevent them and/or to use statistical approaches in epidemiological studies involving dietary assessments.

Molybdenum-containing proteins from Sulphate Reducing Bacteria: studying proteins with novel cofactors and revealing new features of old enzymes

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Bioquímica, especialidade de Bioquímica-Física pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Wind-CSP short-term coordination by Milp approach

This paper is on the maximization of total profit in a day-ahead market for a price-taker producer needing a short-term scheduling for wind power plants coordination with concentrated solar power plants, having thermal energy storage systems. The optimization approach proposed for the maximization of profit is a mixed-integer linear programming problem. The approach considers not only transmission grid constraints, but also technical operating constraints on both wind and concentrated solar power plants. Then, an improved short-term scheduling coordination is provided due to the more accurate modelling presented in this paper. Computer simulation results based on data for the Iberian wind and concentrated solar power plants illustrate the coordination benefits and show the effectiveness of the approach.

The effect of metal transfer stability (spattering) on fume generation, morphology and composition in short-circuit MAG welding

The main objective of this work was to evaluate the hypothesis that the greater transfer stability leads also to less volume of fumes. Using an Ar + 25%CO2 blend as shielding gas and maintaining constant the average current, wire feed speed and welding speed, bead-on-plate welds were carried out with plain carbon steel solid wire. The welding voltage was scanned to progressively vary the transfer stability. Using two conditions of low stability and one with high stability, fume generation was evaluated by means of the AWS F1.2:2006 standard. The influence of these conditions on fume morphology and composition was also verified. A condition with greater transfer stability does not generate less fume quantity, despite the fact that this condition produces fewer spatters. Other factors such as short-circuit current, arcing time, droplet diameters and arc length are the likely governing factors, but in an interrelated way. Metal transfer stability does not influence either the composition or the size/morphology of fume particulates. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How short and light can a simple pendulum be for classroom use?

We compare the period of oscillation of an ideal simple pendulum with the period of a more 'real' pendulum constituted of a rigid sphere and a rigid slender rod. We determine the relative error in the calculation of the local acceleration of gravity if the period of the ideal pendulum is use?d instead of the period of this real pendulum. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd..

New quasi-orthogonal BCH-derived sequences for CDMA applications

European Transactions on Telecommunications, vol. 18

Robotic manipulators with vibrations: short time fourier transform of fractional spectra

This paper analyzes the signals captured during impacts and vibrations of a mechanical manipulator. In order to acquire and study the signals an experimental setup is implemented. The signals are treated through signal processing tools such as the fast Fourier transform and the short time Fourier transform. The results show that the Fourier spectrum of several signals presents a non integer behavior. The experimental study provides valuable results that can assist in the design of a control system to deal with the unwanted effects of vibrations.

Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competetive market by a hybrid Pso-Anfis approach

In this paper, a novel hybrid approach is proposed for electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market, considering a time horizon of 1 week. The proposed approach is based on the combination of particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications, to demonstrate its effectiveness regarding forecasting accuracy and computation time. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn.

An overview of the higher level classification of Pucciniomycotina based on combined analyses of nuclear large and small subunit rDNA sequences

Mycologia, Vol. 98, nº6

A CMOS variable width short-pulse generator circuit for UWB RADAR applications

IEEE International Symposium on Circuits and Systems, pp. 2713 – 2716, Seattle, EUA

The computational role of short-term plasticity and the balance of excitation and inhibition in neural microcircuits: experimental and theoretical analysis

The computations performed by the brain ultimately rely on the functional connectivity between neurons embedded in complex networks. It is well known that the neuronal connections, the synapses, are plastic, i.e. the contribution of each presynaptic neuron to the firing of a postsynaptic neuron can be independently adjusted. The modulation of effective synaptic strength can occur on time scales that range from tens or hundreds of milliseconds, to tens of minutes or hours, to days, and may involve pre- and/or post-synaptic modifications. The collection of these mechanisms is generally believed to underlie learning and memory and, hence, it is fundamental to understand their consequences in the behavior of neurons.(...)

A stratigraphic framework for the Miocene from the lower Tagus Basin (Lisbon, Setúbal Península, Portugal) Depositional sequences, biostratigraphy and isotopic ages

Rev. Soc. Geol. España, 12(1), ano 1999