Probability in Quantum Mechanics: The Everett Interpretation and the Decision-Theoretic Program

The Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics is an increasingly popular alternative to the traditional Copenhagen interpretation, but there are a few major issues that prevent the widespread adoption. One of these issues is the origin of probabilities in the Everett interpretation, which this thesis will attempt to survey. The most successful resolution of the probability problem thus far is the decision-theoretic program, which attempts to frame probabilities as outcomes of rational decision making. This marks a departure from orthodox interpretations of probabilities in the physical sciences, where probabilities are thought to be objective, stemming from symmetry considerations. This thesis will attempt to offer evaluations on the decision-theoretic program.

Descriptions of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Reef Fish Bottom Longline and Vertical Line Fisheries Based on Observer Data

In July 2006, a mandatory observer program was implemented to characterize the commercial reef fish fishery operating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The primary gear types assessed included bottom longline and vertical line (bandit and handline). A total of 73,205 fish (183 taxa) were observed in the longline fishery. Most (66%) were red grouper, Epinephelus morio, and yellowedge grouper, E. flavolimbatus. In the vertical line fishery, 89,015 fish (178 taxa) were observed of which most (60%) were red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, and vermilion snapper, Rhomboplites aurorubens. Based on surface observations of discarded under-sized target and unwanted species, the majority of fish were released alive; minimum assumed mortality was 23% for the vertical line and 24% for the bottom longline fishery. Of the individuals released alive in the longline fishery, 42% had visual signs of barotrauma stress (air bladder expansion/and or eyes protruding). In the vertical line fishery, 35% of the fish were released in a stressed state. Red grouper and red snapper size composition by depth and gear type were determined. Catch-per-unit-effort for dominant species in both fisheries, illustrated spatial differences in distribution between the eastern and western Gulf. Hot Spot Analyses for red grouper and red snapper identified areas with significant clustering of high or low CPUE values.

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Finfish Bycatch in the U.S. Atlantic Bottom Longline Shark Fishery

Bycatch in U.S. fisheries has become an increasingly important issue to both fisheries managers and the public, owing to the wide range of marine resources that can be involved. From 2002 to 2006, the Commercial Shark Fishery Observer Program (CSFOP) and the Shark Bottom Longline Observer Program (SBLOP) collected data on catch and bycatch caught on randomly selected vessels of the U.S. Atlantic shark bottom longline fishery. Three subregions (eastern Gulf of Mexico, South Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic Bight), five years (2002–06), four hook types (small, medium, large, and other), seven depth ranges (<50 m to >300 m), and eight broad taxonomic categories (e.g. Selachimorpha, Batoidea, Serranidae, etc.) were used in the analyses. Results indicated that the majority of bycatch (number) was caught in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and that the Selachimorpha taxon category made up over 90% of the total bycatch. The factors year followed by depth were the most common significant factors affecting bycatch.

Overview of the U.S. East Coast Bottom Longline Shark Fishery, 1994–2003

The U.S. Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico commercial shark fisheries have greatly expanded over the last 30 years, yet fishery managers still lack much of the key information required to accurately assess many shark stocks. Fishery observer programs are one tool that can be utilized to acquire this information. The Commercial Shark Fishery Observer Program monitors the U.S. Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico commercial bottom longline (BLL) large coastal shark fishery. Data gathered by observers were summarized for the 10-year period, 1994 to 2003. A total of 1,165 BLL sets were observed aboard 96 vessels, with observers spending a total of 1,509 days at sea. Observers recorded data regarding the fishing gear and methods used, species composition, disposition of the catch, mortality rates, catch per unit of effort (sharks per 10,000 hook hours), and bycatch of this fishery. Fishing practices, species composition, and bycatch varied between regions, while catch rates, mortality rates, and catch disposition varied greatly between species.

NMFS Cooperative SharkTagging Program, 1962-93: An Atlas of SharkTag and Recapture Data

The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Cooperative Shark Tagging Program (CSTP) is part of continuing research directed to the study of the biology of large Atlantic sharks. The CSTP was initiated in 1962 at the Sandy Hook Laboratory in New Jersey under the Department of Interior's U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). During the late 1950's and early 1960's, sharks were considered a liability to the economy of resort communities, of little or no commercial value, and a detriment to fishermen in areas where sharks might damage expensive fishing gear or reduce catches of more commercially valuable species.

Blue Marlin, Makaira nigricans, Movements in the Western North Atlantic Ocean: Results of a Cooperative Game Fish Tagging Program, 1954-88

Blue marlin, Makaira nigricans, tag and recapture data are summarized for 1954-1988. During this period, 8,447 fish have been tagged and only 30 (0.35 percent) have been returned. Results of the tagging program indicate that blue marlin not only travel considerable distances (7,OOO km from the U. S. Virgin Islands to the Ivory Coast of West Africa), but have remained at large for up to 8 years. Seasonal movements, however, are difficult to determine accurately.

Co-occurrence of bycatch and target species in the groundfish demersal trawl fishery of the U.S. west coast; with special consideration of rebuilding stocks

Bycatch and resultant discard mortality are issues of global concern. The groundfish demersal trawl fishery on the west coast of the United States is a multispecies fishery with significant catch of target and nontarget species. These catches are of particular concern in regard to species that have previously been declared overfished and are currently rebuilding biomass back to target levels. To understand these interactions better, we used data from the West Coast Groundfish Observer Program in a series of cluster analyses to evaluate 3 questions: 1) Are there identifiable associations between species caught in the bottom trawl fishery; 2) Do species that are undergoing population rebuilding toward target biomass levels (“rebuilding species”) cluster with targeted species in a consistent way; 3) Are the relationships between rebuilding bycatch species and target species more resolved at particular spatial scales or are relationships spatially consistent across the whole data set? Two strong species clusters emerged—a deepwater slope cluster and a shelf cluster—neither of which included rebuilding species. The likelihood of encountering rebuilding rockfish species is relatively low. To evaluate whether weak clustering of rebuilding rockfish was attributable to their low rate of occurrence, we specified null models of species occurrence. Results indicated that the ability to predict occurrence of rebuilding rockfish when target species were caught was low. Cluster analyses performed at a variety of spatial scales indicated that the most reliable clustering of rebuilding species was at the spatial scale of individual fishing ports. This finding underscores the value of spatially resolved data for fishery management.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Characterization of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic penaeid and rock shrimp fisheries based on observer data

In July 2007, a mandatory Federal observer program was implemented to characterize the U.S. Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus, F. duorarum, and Litopenaeus setiferus) fishery. In June 2008, the program expanded to include the South Atlantic penaeid and rock shrimp, Sicyonia spp., fisheries. Data collected from 10,206 tows during 5,197 sea days of observations were analyzed by geographical area and target species. The majority of tows (~70%) sampled were off the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Based on total hours towed, the highest concentrated effort occurred off South Texas and southwestern Florida. Gear information, such as net characteristics, bycatch reduction devices, and turtle excluder devices were fairly consistent among areas and target species. By species categories, finfish comprised the majority (≥57%) of the catch composition in the Gulf of Mexico and South Atlantic penaeid shrimp fisheries, while in the South Atlantic rock shrimp fishery the largest component (41%) was rock shrimp. Bycatch to shrimp ratios were lower than reported in previous studies for the Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp fishery. These decreased ratios may be attributed to several factors, notably decreased shrimp effort and higher shrimp catch per unit of effort (CPUE) in recent years. CPUE density surface plots for several species of interest illustrated spatial differences in distribution. Hot Spot Analyses for shrimp (penaeid and rock) and bycatch species identified areas with significant clustering of high or low CPUE values. Spatial and temporal distribution of protected species interactions were documented.

An ecological characterization of Salt River Bay National Historical Park and Ecological Preserve, U.S. Virgin Islands

Salt River Bay National Historical Park and Ecological Preserve (hereafter, SARI or the park) was created in 1992 to preserve, protect, and interpret nationally significant natural, historical, and cultural resources (United States Congress 1992). The diverse ecosystem within it includes a large mangrove forest, a submarine canyon, coral reefs, seagrass beds, coastal forests, and many other natural and developed landscape elements. These ecosystem components are, in turn, utilized by a great diversity of flora and fauna. A comprehensive spatial inventory of these ecosystems is required for successful management. To meet this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Biogeography Program, in consultation with the National Park Service (NPS) and the Government of the Virgin Islands Department of Planning and Natural Resources (VIDPNR), conducted an ecological characterization. The characterization consists of three complementary components: a text report, digital habitat maps, and a collection of historical aerial photographs. This ecological characterization provides managers with a suite of tools that, when coupled with the excellent pre-existing body of work on SARI resources, enables improved research and monitoring activities within the park (see Appendix F for a list of data products).

A biogeographic assessment of the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary: a review of boundary expansion concepts for NOAA’s National Marine Sanctuary Program

The priority management goal of the National Marine Sanctuaries Program (NMSP) is to protect marine ecosystems and biodiversity. This goal requires an understanding of broad-scale ecological relationships and linkages between marine resources and physical oceanography to support an ecosystem management approach. The Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS) is currently reviewing its management plan and investigating boundary expansion. A management plan study area (henceforth, Study Area) was described that extends from the current boundary north to the mainland, and extends north to Point Sal and south to Point Dume. Six additional boundary concepts were developed that vary in area and include the majority of the Study Area. The NMSP and CINMS partnered with NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Biogeography Team to conduct a biogeographic assessment to characterize marine resources and oceanographic patterns within and adjacent to the sanctuary. This assessment includes a suite of quantitative spatial and statistical analyses that characterize biological and oceanographic patterns in the marine region from Point Sal to the U.S.-Mexico border. These data were analyzed using an index which evaluates an ecological “cost-benefit” within the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. The sanctuary resides in a dynamic setting where two oceanographic regimes meet. Cold northern waters mix with warm southern waters around the Channel Islands creating an area of transition that strongly influences the regions oceanography. In turn, these processes drive the biological distributions within the region. This assessment analyzes bathymetry, benthic substrate, bathymetric life-zones, sea surface temperature, primary production, currents, submerged aquatic vegetation, and kelp in the context of broad-scale patterns and relative to the proposed boundary concepts and the Study Area. Boundary cost-benefit results for these parameters were variable due to their dynamic nature; however, when analyzed in composite the Study Area and Boundary Concept 2 were considered the most favorable. Biological data were collected from numerous resource agencies and university scientists for this assessment. Fish and invertebrate trawl data were used to characterize community structure. Habitat suitability models were developed for 15 species of macroinvertebrates and 11 species of fish that have significant ecological, commercial, or recreational importance in the region and general patterns of ichthyoplankton distribution are described. Six surveys of ship and plane at-sea surveys were used to model marine bird diversity from Point Arena to the U.S.-Mexico border. Additional surveys were utilized to estimate density and colony counts for nine bird species. Critical habitat for western snowy plover and the location of California least tern breeding pairs were also analyzed. At-sea surveys were also used to describe the distribution of 14 species of cetaceans and five species of pinnipeds. Boundary concept cost-benefit indices revealed that Boundary Concept 2 and the Study Area were most favorable for the majority of the species-specific analyses. Boundary Concept 3 was most favorable for bird diversity across the region. Inadequate spatial resolution for fish and invertebrate community data and incompatible sampling effort information for bird and mammal data precluded boundary cost-benefit analysis.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean and estuarine waters of the U.S. South Atlantic Bight: 2000-2004

In March-April 2004, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and State of Florida (FL) conducted a study to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) portion of the U.S. continental shelf and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to West Palm Beach, Florida and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). Conditions of these offshore waters are compared to those of southeastern estuaries, based on data from similar EMAP/NCA surveys conducted in 2000-2004 by EPA, NOAA, and partnering southeastern states (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) (NCA database for estuaries, EPA Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze FL). Data from a total of 747 estuarine stations are included in this database. As for the offshore sites, the estuarine samples were collected using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal EMAP/NCA surveys including the probabilistic sampling design and multiple indicators of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition (benthos and fish). The majority of the SAB had high levels of DO in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of "good" water quality. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at all sites throughout the coastal-ocean survey area and in 76% of estuarine waters. Twenty-one percent of estuarine bottom waters had moderate levels of DO between 2 and 5 mg L-1 and 3% had DO levels below 2 mg L-1. The majority of sites with DO in the low range considered to be hypoxic (< 2 mg L-1) occurred in North Carolina estuaries. There also was a notable concentration of stations with moderate DO levels (2 – 5 mg L-1) in Georgia and South Carolina estuaries. Approximately 58% of the estuarine area had moderate levels of chlorophyll a (5-10 μg L-1) and about 8% of the area had higher levels, in excess of 10 μg L-1, indicative of eutrophication. The elevated chlorophyll a levels appeared to be widespread throughout the estuaries of the region. In contrast, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of chlorophyll a with 100% of the offshore survey area having values < 5 μg L-1.

Survey and impact assessment of derelict fish traps in St. Thomas and St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands

Since 2001, NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s (CCMA) Biogeography Branch (BB) has been working with federal and territorial partners to characterize, monitor, and assess the status of the marine environment across the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). At the request of the St. Thomas Fisherman’s Association (STFA) and NOAA Marine Debris Program, CCMA BB developed new partnerships and novel technologies to scientifically assess the threat from derelict fish traps (DFTs). Traps are the predominant gear used for finfish and lobster harvesting in St. Thomas and St. John. Natural phenomena (ground swells, hurricanes) and increasing competition for space by numerous user groups have generated concern about increasing trap loss and the possible ecological, as well as economic, ramifications. Prior to this study, there was a general lack of knowledge regarding derelict fish traps in the Caribbean. No spatially explicit information existed regarding fishing effort, abundance and distribution of derelict traps, the rate at which active traps become derelict, or areas that are prone to dereliction. Furthermore, there was only limited information regarding the impacts of derelict traps on natural resources including ghost fishing. This research identified two groups of fishing communities in the region: commercial fishing that is most active in deeper waters (30 m and greater) and an unknown number of unlicensed subsistence and or commercial fishers that fish closer to shore in shallower waters (30 m and less). In the commercial fishery there are an estimated 6,500 active traps (fish and lobster combined). Of those traps, nearly 8% (514) were reported lost during the 2008-2010 period. Causes of loss/dereliction include: movement of the traps or loss of trap markers due to entanglement of lines by passing vessels; theft; severe weather events (storms, large ground swells); intentional disposal by fishermen; traps becoming caught on various bottom structures (natural substrates, wrecks, etc.); and human error.

Coral reef ecosystems of St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands: spatial and temporal patterns in fish and benthic communities (2001-2009)

Scientific and anecdotal observations during recent decades have suggested that the structure and function of the coral reef ecosystems around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands have been impacted adversely by a wide range of environmental stressors. Major stressors included the mass die-off of the long-spined sea urchin (Diadema antillarum) in the early 1980s, a series of hurricanes (David and Frederick in 1979, and Hugo in 1989), overfishing, mass mortality of Acropora species and other reef-building corals due to disease and several coral bleaching events. In response to these adverse impacts, the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB) collaborated with federal and territorial partners to characterize, monitor, and assess the status of the marine environment around the island from 2001 to 2012. This 13-year monitoring effort, known as the Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Project (CREM), was supported by the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program as part of their National Coral Reef Ecosystem Monitoring Program. This technical memorandum contains analysis of nine years of data (2001-2009) from in situ fish belt transect and benthic habitat quadrat surveys conducted in and around the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS) and the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR). The purpose of this document is to: 1) Quantify spatial patterns and temporal trends in (i) benthic habitat composition and (ii) fish species abundance, size structure, biomass, and diversity; 2) Provide maps showing the locations of biological surveys and broad-scale distributions of key fish and benthic species and assemblages; and 3) Compare benthic habitat composition and reef fish assemblages in areas under NPS jurisdiction with those in similar areas not managed by NPS (i.e., outside of the VIIS and VICR boundaries). This report provides key information to help the St. John management community and others understand the impacts of natural and man-made perturbations on coral reef and near-shore ecosystems. It also supports ecosystem-based management efforts to conserve the region’s coral reef and related fauna while maintaining the many goods and ecological services that they offer to society.

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters of the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida: 2007

A study was initiated with field work in May 2007 to assess the status of ecological condition and stressor impacts throughout the U.S. continental shelf off South Florida, focusing on soft-bottom habitats, and to provide this information as a baseline for evaluating future changes due to natural or human-induced disturbances. The boundaries of the study region extended from Anclote Key on the western coast of Florida to West Palm Beach on the eastern coast of Florida, inclusive of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), and from navigable depths along the shoreline seaward to the shelf break (~100m). The study incorporated standard methods and indicators applied in previous national coastal monitoring programs — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) and National Coastal Assessment (NCA) — including multiple measures of water quality, sediment quality, and biological condition. Synoptic sampling of the various indicators provided an integrative weight-of-evidence approach to assessing condition at each station and a basis for examining potential associations between presence of stressors and biological responses. A probabilistic sampling design, which included 50 stations distributed randomly throughout the region, was used to provide a basis for estimating the spatial extent of condition relative to the various measured indicators and corresponding assessment endpoints (where available). The study was conducted through a large cooperative effort by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), EPA, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NOAA/Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, FKNMS, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The majority of the South Florida shelf had high levels of dissolved oxygen (DO) in near-bottom water (> 5 mg L-1) indicative of “good” water quality.. DO levels in bottom waters exceeded this upper threshold at 98.8% throughout the coastal-ocean survey area. Only 1.2% of the region had moderate DO levels (2-5 mg/L) and no part of the survey area had DO <2.0 mg/L. In addition, offshore waters throughout the region had relatively low levels of total suspended solids (TSS), nutrients, and chlorophyll a indicative of oligotrophic conditions. Results suggested good sediment quality as well. Sediments throughout the region, which ranged from sands to intermediate muddy sands, had low levels of total organic carbon (TOC) below bioeffect guidelines for benthic organisms. Chemical contaminants in sediments were also mostly at low, background levels. For example, none of the stations had chemicals in excess of corresponding Effects-Range Median (ERM) probable bioeffect values or more than one chemical in excess of lower-threshold Effects-Range Low (ERL) values. Cadmium was the only chemical that occurred at moderate concentrations between corresponding ERL and ERM values. Sixty fish samples from 28 stations were collected and analyzed for chemical contaminants. Eleven of these samples (39% of sites) had moderate levels of contaminants, between lower and upper non-cancer human-health thresholds, and ten (36% of sites) had high levels of contaminants above the upper threshold.