Spatial Patterns and Irregularities of the electoral data: general elections in Canada

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Data fusion with computational intelligence techniques: a case study of fuzzy inference for terrain assessment

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Evaluation and optimization of a session-based middleware for data management

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática

The role of qualitative data and systems thinking in addressing service decline in market towns

Retail services are a main contributor to municipal budget and are an activity that affects perceived quality-of-life, especially for those with mobility difficulties (e.g. the elderly, low income citizens). However, there is evidence of a decline in some of the services market towns provide to their citizens. In market towns, this decline has been reported all over the western world, from North America to Australia. The aim of this research was to understand retail decline and enlighten on some ways of addressing this decline, using a case study, Thornbury, a small town in the Southwest of England. Data collected came from two participatory approaches: photo-surveys and multicriteria mapping. The interpretation of data came from using participants as analysts, but also, using systems thinking (systems diagramming and social trap theory) for theory building. This research moves away from mainstream economic and town planning perspectives by making use of different methods and concepts used in anthropology and visual sociology (photo-surveys), decision-making and ecological economics (multicriteria mapping and social trap theory). In sum, this research has experimented with different methods, out of their context, to analyse retail decline in a small town. This research developed a conceptual model for retail decline and identified the existence of conflicting goals and interests and their implications for retail decline, as well as causes for these. Most of the potential causes have had little attention in the literature. This research also identified that some of the measures commonly used for dealing with retail decline may be contributing to the causes of retail decline itself. Additionally, this research reviewed some of the measures that can be used to deal with retail decline, implications for policy-making and reflected on the use of the data collection and analysis methods in the context of small to medium towns.

A method to correct the flow distortion of offshore wind data using CFD simulation and experimental wind tunnel tests

The assessment of wind energy resource for the development of deep offshore wind plants requires the use of every possible source of data and, in many cases, includes data gathered at meteorological stations installed at islands, islets or even oil platforms—all structures that interfere with, and change, the flow characteristics. This work aims to contribute to the evaluation of such changes in the flow by developing a correction methodology and applying it to the case of Berlenga island, Portugal. The study is performed using computational fluid dynamic simulations (CFD) validated by wind tunnel tests. In order to simulate the incoming offshore flow with CFD models a wind profile, unknown a priori, was established using observations from two coastal wind stations and a power law wind profile was fitted to the existing data (a=0.165). The results show that the resulting horizontal wind speed at 80 m above sea level is 16% lower than the wind speed at 80 m above the island for the dominant wind direction sector.

Mapping the Pasture Steppe in Bayankhongor, Mongolia: comparison of classification methods, using Landsat-8 and geophysical data

Grasslands in semi-arid regions, like Mongolian steppes, are facing desertification and degradation processes, due to climate change. Mongolia’s main economic activity consists on an extensive livestock production and, therefore, it is a concerning matter for the decision makers. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems provide the tools for advanced ecosystem management and have been widely used for monitoring and management of pasture resources. This study investigates which is the higher thematic detail that is possible to achieve through remote sensing, to map the steppe vegetation, using medium resolution earth observation imagery in three districts (soums) of Mongolia: Dzag, Buutsagaan and Khureemaral. After considering different thematic levels of detail for classifying the steppe vegetation, the existent pasture types within the steppe were chosen to be mapped. In order to investigate which combination of data sets yields the best results and which classification algorithm is more suitable for incorporating these data sets, a comparison between different classification methods were tested for the study area. Sixteen classifications were performed using different combinations of estimators, Landsat-8 (spectral bands and Landsat-8 NDVI-derived) and geophysical data (elevation, mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature) using two classification algorithms, maximum likelihood and decision tree. Results showed that the best performing model was the one that incorporated Landsat-8 bands with mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature (Model 13), using the decision tree. For maximum likelihood, the model that incorporated Landsat-8 bands with mean annual precipitation (Model 5) and the one that incorporated Landsat-8 bands with mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature (Model 13), achieved the higher accuracies for this algorithm. The decision tree models consistently outperformed the maximum likelihood ones.

A data-driven analytics approach in the study of pneumonia’s fatalities

As huge amounts of data become available in organizations and society, specific data analytics skills and techniques are needed to explore this data and extract from it useful patterns, tendencies, models or other useful knowledge, which could be used to support the decision-making process, to define new strategies or to understand what is happening in a specific field. Only with a deep understanding of a phenomenon it is possible to fight it. In this paper, a data-driven analytics approach is used for the analysis of the increasing incidence of fatalities by pneumonia in the Portuguese population, characterizing the disease and its incidence in terms of fatalities, knowledge that can be used to define appropriate strategies that can aim to reduce this phenomenon, which has increased more than 65% in a decade.

Using data mining for prediction of hospital length of stay: an application of the CRISP-DM Methodology

Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.

Predicting type of delivery by identification of obstetric risk factors through data mining

In Maternity Care, a quick decision has to be made about the most suitable delivery type for the current patient. Guidelines are followed by physicians to support that decision; however, those practice recommendations are limited and underused. In the last years, caesarean delivery has been pursued in over 28% of pregnancies, and other operative techniques regarding specific problems have also been excessively employed. This study identifies obstetric and pregnancy factors that can be used to predict the most appropriate delivery technique, through the induction of data mining models using real data gathered in the perinatal and maternal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto (CHP). Predicting the type of birth envisions high-quality services, increased safety and effectiveness of specific practices to help guide maternity care decisions and facilitate optimal outcomes in mother and child. In this work was possible to acquire good results, achieving sensitivity and specificity values of 90.11% and 80.05%, respectively, providing the CHP with a model capable of correctly identify caesarean sections and vaginal deliveries.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

The Data Mining applied for the prediction of highway roughness due to overloaded trucks

Currently, the quality of the Indonesian national road network is inadequate due to several constraints, including overcapacity and overloaded trucks. The high deterioration rate of the road infrastructure in developing countries along with major budgetary restrictions and high growth in traffic have led to an emerging need for improving the performance of the highway maintenance system. However, the high number of intervening factors and their complex effects require advanced tools to successfully solve this problem. The high learning capabilities of Data Mining (DM) are a powerful solution to this problem. In the past, these tools have been successfully applied to solve complex and multi-dimensional problems in various scientific fields. Therefore, it is expected that DM can be used to analyze the large amount of data regarding the pavement and traffic, identify the relationship between variables, and provide information regarding the prediction of the data. In this paper, we present a new approach to predict the International Roughness Index (IRI) of pavement based on DM techniques. DM was used to analyze the initial IRI data, including age, Equivalent Single Axle Load (ESAL), crack, potholes, rutting, and long cracks. This model was developed and verified using data from an Integrated Indonesia Road Management System (IIRMS) that was measured with the National Association of Australian State Road Authorities (NAASRA) roughness meter. The results of the proposed approach are compared with the IIRMS analytical model adapted to the IRI, and the advantages of the new approach are highlighted. We show that the novel data-driven model is able to learn (with high accuracy) the complex relationships between the IRI and the contributing factors of overloaded trucks

Tapping the wealth of microbial data in high-throughput metabolic model reconstruction

Genome-scale metabolic models are valuable tools in the metabolic engineering process, based on the ability of these models to integrate diverse sources of data to produce global predictions of organism behavior. At the most basic level, these models require only a genome sequence to construct, and once built, they may be used to predict essential genes, culture conditions, pathway utilization, and the modifications required to enhance a desired organism behavior. In this chapter, we address two key challenges associated with the reconstruction of metabolic models: (a) leveraging existing knowledge of microbiology, biochemistry, and available omics data to produce the best possible model; and (b) applying available tools and data to automate the reconstruction process. We consider these challenges as we progress through the model reconstruction process, beginning with genome assembly, and culminating in the integration of constraints to capture the impact of transcriptional regulation. We divide the reconstruction process into ten distinct steps: (1) genome assembly from sequenced reads; (2) automated structural and functional annotation; (3) phylogenetic tree-based curation of genome annotations; (4) assembly and standardization of biochemistry database; (5) genome-scale metabolic reconstruction; (6) generation of core metabolic model; (7) generation of biomass composition reaction; (8) completion of draft metabolic model; (9) curation of metabolic model; and (10) integration of regulatory constraints. Each of these ten steps is documented in detail.

An R package for the integrated analysis of metabolomics and spectral data

Recently, there has been a growing interest in the field of metabolomics, materialized by a remarkable growth in experimental techniques, available data and related biological applications. Indeed, techniques as Nuclear Magnetic Resonance, Gas or Liquid Chromatography, Mass Spectrometry, Infrared and UV-visible spectroscopies have provided extensive datasets that can help in tasks as biological and biomedical discovery, biotechnology and drug development. However, as it happens with other omics data, the analysis of metabolomics datasets provides multiple challenges, both in terms of methodologies and in the development of appropriate computational tools. Indeed, from the available software tools, none addresses the multiplicity of existing techniques and data analysis tasks. In this work, we make available a novel R package, named specmine, which provides a set of methods for metabolomics data analysis, including data loading in different formats, pre-processing, metabolite identification, univariate and multivariate data analysis, machine learning, and feature selection. Importantly, the implemented methods provide adequate support for the analysis of data from diverse experimental techniques, integrating a large set of functions from several R packages in a powerful, yet simple to use environment. The package, already available in CRAN, is accompanied by a web site where users can deposit datasets, scripts and analysis reports to be shared with the community, promoting the efficient sharing of metabolomics data analysis pipelines.

An investigation into system security requirements and implementation in an Application Service Provider (ASP) environment

Although the ASP model has been around for over a decade, it has not achieved the expected high level of market uptake. This research project examines the past and present state of ASP adoption and identifies security as a primary factor influencing the uptake of the model. The early chapters of this document examine the ASP model and ASP security in particular. Specifically, the literature and technology review chapter analyses ASP literature, security technologies and best practices with respect to system security in general. Based on this investigation, a prototype to illustrate the range and types of technologies that encompass a security framework was developed and is described in detail. The latter chapters of this document evaluate the practical implementation of system security in an ASP environment. Finally, this document outlines the research outputs, including the conclusions drawn and recommendations with respect to system security in an ASP environment. The primary research output is the recommendation that by following best practices with respect to security, an ASP application can provide the same level of security one would expect from any other n-tier client-server application. In addition, a security evaluation matrix, which could be used to evaluate not only the security of ASP applications but the security of any n-tier application, was developed by the author. This thesis shows that perceptions with regard to fears of inadequate security of ASP solutions and solution data are misguided. Finally, based on the research conducted, the author recommends that ASP solutions should be developed and deployed on tried, tested and trusted infrastructure. Existing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) should be used where possible and security best practices should be adhered to where feasible.

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.