The database search problem: a question of rational decision making

This paper applies probability and decision theory in the graphical interface of an influence diagram to study the formal requirements of rationality which justify the individualization of a person found through a database search. The decision-theoretic part of the analysis studies the parameters that a rational decision maker would use to individualize the selected person. The modeling part (in the form of an influence diagram) clarifies the relationships between this decision and the ingredients that make up the database search problem, i.e., the results of the database search and the different pairs of propositions describing whether an individual is at the source of the crime stain. These analyses evaluate the desirability associated with the decision of 'individualizing' (and 'not individualizing'). They point out that this decision is a function of (i) the probability that the individual in question is, in fact, at the source of the crime stain (i.e., the state of nature), and (ii) the decision maker's preferences among the possible consequences of the decision (i.e., the decision maker's loss function). We discuss the relevance and argumentative implications of these insights with respect to recent comments in specialized literature, which suggest points of view that are opposed to the results of our study.

Les règles n'ont plus la cote: une question de contraception ou de choix [To bleed or not--a new dogma or a real choice in contraception?]

On en parle ! Il est question de la suppression des règles par l'administration de contraceptifs oestro-progestatifs (pilule, patch ou anneau vaginal) en cycles longs (cycles prolongés ; cycles étendus ; extended cycles) entraînant des périodes d'aménorrhée, rythmées par des intervalles libres de sept jours sans administration hormonale. L'indication à ce mode de prescription est presque unanimement reconnue pour le traitement des pathologies bénéficiant de la suppression des règles et des fluctuations hormonales inhérentes à l'activité ovarienne. Ce traitement suscite cependant également de l'intérêt pour une indication du type mode de vie. Les modalités thérapeutiques, les avantages et inconvénients sont examinés à la lumière de l'attente des femmes et de leur droit au choix éclairé et libre. Let's talk about it ! Suppression of menstruation, by extending the duration of contraceptives containing estro-progestins (oral contraception, patch or vaginal ring) to long cycles, is a new approach in the field of contraception. These extended cycles aim at obtaining prolonged amenorrhea, interrupted periodically by a free interval of 7 days without hormone intake and thus causing breakthrough bleeding. Pathologies, which are supposed to get some benefit from the suppression of menstruation and of hormone level variations related to ovarian activity, are widely recognized as an indication. Some interest is also coming up for so called life style indications. Treatment issues, advantages and disadvantages are examined in the light of women's expectations and right to access to informed consent and independent choice.

Vortices and extreme black holes: The question of flux expulsion

It has been claimed that extreme black holes exhibit a phenomenon of flux expulsion for Abelian Higgs vortices, irrespective of the relative width of the vortex to the black hole. Recent work by two of the authors showed a subtlety in the treatment of the event horizon, which cast doubt on this claim. We analyze in detail the vortexextreme black hole system, showing that, while flux expulsion can occur, it does not do so in all cases. We give analytic proofs for both expulsion and penetration of flux, in each case deriving a bound for that behavior. We also present extensive numerical work backing up, and refining, these claims, and showing in detail how a vortex can end on a black hole in all situations. We also calculate the back reaction of the vortex on the geometry, and comment on the more general vortexblack hole system.