KDIGO-based acute kidney injury criteria operate differently in hospitals and the community—findings from a large population cohort

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We acknowledge the data management support of Grampian Data Safe Haven (DaSH) and the associated financial support of NHS Research Scotland, through NHS Grampian investment in the Grampian DaSH. S.S. is supported by a Clinical Research Training Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (Ref 102729/Z/13/Z). We also acknowledge the support from The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research. The Farr Institute is supported by a 10-funder consortium: Arthritis Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, the Economic and Social Research Council, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Health Research, the National Institute for Social Care and Health Research (Welsh Assembly Government), the Chief Scientist Office (Scottish Government Health Directorates) and the Wellcome Trust (MRC Grant Nos: Scotland MR/K007017/1).

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the RAD51 gene modifies cancer risk in BRCA2 but not BRCA1 carriers

BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers are at increased risk for both breast and ovarian cancer, but estimates of lifetime risk vary widely, suggesting their penetrance is modified by other genetic and/or environmental factors. The BRCA1 and BRCA2 proteins function in DNA repair in conjunction with RAD51. A preliminary report suggested that a single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5′ untranslated region of RAD51 (135C/G) increases breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. To investigate this effect we studied 257 female Ashkenazi Jewish carriers of one of the common BRCA1 (185delAG, 5382insC) or BRCA2 (6174delT) mutations. Of this group, 164 were affected with breast and/or ovarian cancer and 93 were unaffected. RAD51 genotyping was performed on all subjects. Among BRCA1 carriers, RAD51-135C frequency was similar in healthy and affected women [6.1% (3 of 49) and 9.9% (12 of 121), respectively], and RAD-135C did not influence age of cancer diagnosis [Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18 for disease in RAD51-135C heterozygotes, not significant]. However, in BRCA2 carriers, RAD51-135C heterozygote frequency in affected women was 17.4% (8 of 46) compared with 4.9% (2 of 41) in unaffected women (P = 0.07). Survival analysis in BRCA2 carriers showed RAD51-135C increased risk of breast and/or ovarian cancer with an HR of 4.0 [95% confidence interval 1.6–9.8, P = 0.003]. This effect was largely due to increased breast cancer risk with an HR of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 1.3–9.2, P = 0.01) for breast cancer in BRCA2 carriers who were RAD51-135C heterozygotes. RAD51 status did not affect ovarian cancer risk. These results show RAD51-135C is a clinically significant modifier of BRCA2 penetrance, specifically in raising breast cancer risk at younger ages.

Estado nutricional aos 20 anos como fator de risco para incidência precoce de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis entre adultos de 30 a 49 anos

Introdução: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens está associado ao desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) e à diminuição da qualidade de vida e ao aumento da mortalidade precoce. A transição da adolescência para a fase adulta é o período de maior risco para a incidência da obesidade. Objetivo: Estimar o efeito o índice de massa corpora (IMC) aos 20 anos sobre a incidência de DCNT em adultos brasileiros com idade entre 30 a 49 anos. Métodos: Foram selecionados 12.079 indivíduos de 30 a 49 anos da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS), realizada no ano de 2013. O modelo adotado para determinação das DCNT foi aquele proposto pela Organização Mundial de Saúde. A incidência das DCNT (hipertensão, doenças cardiovasculares, diabetes e câncer, entre outras), informada pela data do diagnóstico, foi modelada como função do IMC aos 20 anos. Os indivíduos sem a doença até o presente foram considerados como censura. As estimativas de sobrevida foram calculadas com o método de Kaplan-Meier (KM) para cada uma das doenças, estratificada por sexo e ajustada por escolaridade. A análise dos fatores de risco para as doenças foi feita utilizando-se o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. Resultados: Nas curvas de sobrevida KM, indivíduos com IMC >=25kg/m² apresentaram incidência mais elevada e precoce de DCNT, principalmente hipertensão, diabetes e depressão. A idade mediana para incidência do diabetes em obesos foi de 47 anos para homens e 48 anos para mulheres. A incidência da hipertensão arterial foi 4,2 por mil com sobrevida mediana de 48 e 44 anos em mulheres com excesso de peso e obesidade, respectivamente. Dentre os fatores de risco associados as DCNT, o tabagismo em idade precoce foi associado à incidência de depressão. Conclusão: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens aumenta a incidência precoce de DCNT, com efeitos negativos na qualidade de vida, lazer e produtividade, além de aumentar a demanda por serviços de saúde. Torna-se necessário que a intervenção para redução dessas doenças seja direcionada para o período da infância e adolescência com ações que promovam a redução da exposição desses indivíduos à alimentação de má qualidade e incentivo a prática de atividade, não uso do tabaco e consumo moderado de álcool.

Métodos de adequação e diagnóstico em modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos

A análise de dados de sobrevivência tem sido tradicionalmente baseada no modelo de regressão de Cox (COX, 1972). No entanto, a suposição de taxas de falha proporcionais assumida para esse modelo pode não ser atendida em diversas situações práticas. Essa restrição do modelo de Cox tem gerado interesse em abordagens alternativas, dentre elas os modelos dinâmicos que permitem efeito das covariáveis variando no tempo. Neste trabalho, foram revisados os principais modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos com estrutura aditiva e multiplicativa nos contextos não paramétrico e semiparamétrico. Métodos gráficos baseados em resíduos foram apresentados com a finalidade de avaliar a qualidade de ajuste desses modelos. Uma versão tempo-dependente da área sob a curva ROC, denotada por AUC(t), foi proposta com a finalidade de avaliar e comparar a qualidade de predição entre modelos de sobrevivência com estruturas aditiva e multiplicativa. O desempenho da AUC(t) foi avaliado por meio de um estudo de simulação. Dados de três estudos descritos na literatura foram também analisados para ilustrar ou complementar os cenários que foram considerados no estudo de simulação. De modo geral, os resultados obtidos indicaram que os métodos gráficos apresentados para avaliar a adequação dos modelos em conjunto com a AUC(t) se constituem em um conjunto de ferramentas estatísticas úteis para o próposito de avaliar modelos de sobrevivência dinâmicos nos contextos não paramétrico e semiparamétrico. Além disso, a aplicação desse conjunto de ferramentas em alguns conjuntos de dados evidenciou que se, por um lado, os modelos dinâmicos são atrativos por permitirem covariáveis tempo-dependentes, por outro lado podem não ser apropriados para todos os conjuntos de dados, tendo em vista que estimação pode apresentar restrições para alguns deles.

A nova família de distribuições odd log-logística: teoria e aplicações

Neste trabalho, foi proposta uma nova família de distribuições, a qual permite modelar dados de sobrevivência quando a função de risco tem formas unimodal e U (banheira). Ainda, foram consideradas as modificações das distribuições Weibull, Fréchet, half-normal generalizada, log-logística e lognormal. Tomando dados não-censurados e censurados, considerou-se os estimadores de máxima verossimilhança para o modelo proposto, a fim de verificar a flexibilidade da nova família. Além disso, um modelo de regressão locação-escala foi utilizado para verificar a influência de covariáveis nos tempos de sobrevida. Adicionalmente, conduziu-se uma análise de resíduos baseada nos resíduos deviance modificada. Estudos de simulação, utilizando-se de diferentes atribuições dos parâmetros, porcentagens de censura e tamanhos amostrais, foram conduzidos com o objetivo de verificar a distribuição empírica dos resíduos tipo martingale e deviance modificada. Para detectar observações influentes, foram utilizadas medidas de influência local, que são medidas de diagnóstico baseadas em pequenas perturbações nos dados ou no modelo proposto. Podem ocorrer situações em que a suposição de independência entre os tempos de falha e censura não seja válida. Assim, outro objetivo desse trabalho é considerar o mecanismo de censura informativa, baseado na verossimilhança marginal, considerando a distribuição log-odd log-logística Weibull na modelagem. Por fim, as metodologias descritas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados reais.

Estudo da expansão da Leishmaniose Visceral no estado de São Paulo e de fatores intervenientes

INTRODUÇÃO: Leishmaniose visceral (LV) é uma doença negligenciada que afeta milhões de pessoas no mundo e que constitui um grave problema de saúde pública. OBJETIVOS: Descrever no tempo e no espaço, a dispersão de Lutzomyia longipalpis e a expansão da LV no estado de São Paulo (SP); identificar fatores associados a estes processos. MÉTODOS: Foram realizados estudos descritivos, ecológicos e de análise de sobrevida. Informações sobre o vetor e os casos foram obtidas na Superintendência de Controle de Endemias e no Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação para o período de 1997 a 2014. A área de estudo foi composta pelos 645 municípios de SP. Foram produzidos mapas temáticos e de fluxo e calcularam-se incidência, mortalidade e letalidade por LV em humanos (LVH). Utilizou-se a técnica de análise de sobrevida (Curvas de Kaplan-Meier e Regressão de Cox) para a identificação de fatores associados à dispersão do vetor e expansão da LV. RESULTADOS: A partir da detecção de Lu. longipalpis em Araçatuba em 1997, deram-se a ocorrência do primeiro caso canino (LVC) (1998) e o primeiro caso humano (LVH) autóctones (1999) em SP. Até 2014, foi detectada a presença do vetor em 173 (26,8 por cento ) municípios, LVC em 108 (16,7 por cento ) e LVH em 84 (13 por cento ). A expansão dos três fenômenos ocorreu no sentido noroeste para sudeste e se deram a velocidades constantes. Na região de São José do Rio Preto, a dispersão do vetor deu-se por vizinhança com municípios anteriormente infestados, a expansão da LV relacionou-se com os municípios sede das microrregiões e a doença ocorreu com maior intensidade nas áreas periféricas dos municípios. A presença da Rodovia Marechal Rondon e a divisa com o Mato Grosso do Sul foram fatores associados à ocorrência dos três eventos, assim como a presença da Rodovia Euclides da Cunha para presença do vetor e casos caninos, e, presença de presídios para casos humanos. CONCLUSÕES: A dispersão do vetor e da LV em SP iniciou-se, a partir de 1997, próximo à divisa com o estado do Mato Grosso do Sul, avançou no sentido noroeste para sudeste, na trajetória da rodovia Marechal Rondon, e ocorreu em progressão aritmética, com as sedes das microrregiões de SP tendo papel preponderante neste processo. A ocorrência autóctone de LVC e LVH iniciou-se na sequência da detecção de Lu. longipalpis em Araçatuba e de seu espalhamento por SP e não a partir dos locais onde anteriormente ele já estava presente. O uso da análise de sobrevida permitiu identificar fatores associados à dispersão do vetor e a expansão da LV. Os resultados deste estudo podem ser úteis para aprimorar as atividades de vigilância e controle da LV, no sentido de retardar sua expansão e/ou de mitigar seus efeitos, quando de sua ocorrência.

The dynamics of leniency application and the knock-on effect of cartel enforcement. Bruegel Working Paper 2016/02, February 2016

The authors study the timing of leniency applications using a novel application of multi-spell discrete-time survival analysis for a sample of cartels prosecuted by the European Commission between 1996 and 2014. The start of a Commission investigation does not affect the rate by which conspirators apply for leniency in the market investigated, but increases the rate of application in separate markets in which a conspirator in the investigated market also engaged in collusion. The revision of the Commission’s leniency programme in 2002 increased the rate of pre-investigation applications. Our results shed light on enforcement efforts against cartels and other forms of

Marriage breakdown in Australia - The social correlates of separation and divorce

Marriage breakdown through separation and divorce is a pervasive feature of Australian society. But little research investigates the social factors associated with marital breakdown in Australia. This study builds on and extends Australian research by using survival analysis models to examine patterns of association among temporal, life-course, attitudinal and economic factors associated with marital breakdown. Using data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey, we find marital breakdown in Australia is socially patterned in similar ways to other Western countries. But our findings point to several directions for future research into marriage breakdown in Australia, and we identify certain unique features of Australian marriage breakdown that warrant a more detailed investigation, such as the relationship between ethnic origin and the risk of marital breakdown.

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Lifestyle still predicts mortality in older men with established vascular disease

Background. It is uncertain whether accepted associations between health behaviors and mortality are pertinent to elderly people. No previous studies have examined the patterns of lifestyle in elderly men with and without clinically evident vascular disease by using a lifestyle score to predict survival. Methods. We measured prevalence of a healthy lifestyle (four or more healthy behaviors out of eight) and examined survival in 11,745 men aged 65-83 years participating in a randomized population-based trial of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in Perth, Western Australia. After stratifying participants into five groups according to history and symptoms of vascular disease, we compared survival of men in each subgroup with that of 'healthy' men with no history or symptoms of vascular disease. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. After adjusting for age and place of birth, having an unhealthy lifestyle was associated with an increase of 20% in the likelihood of death from any cause within 5 years (95% CI: 10-30%). This pattern was consistently evident across subgroups defined by history of vascular disease, but was less evident for deaths from vascular disease. Conclusions. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle through to old age, regardless of history of vascular disease. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel markers for poor prognosis in head and neck cancer

Head and neck cancer (HNSCC) is one of the most distressing human cancers, causing pain and affecting the basic survival functions of breathing and swallowing. Mortality rates have not changed despite recent advances in radiotherapy and surgical treatment. We have compared the expression of over 13,000 unique genes in 7 cases of matched HNSCC and normal oral mucosa. Of the 1,260 genes that showed statistically significant differences in expression between normal and tumor tissue at the mRNA level, the three top ranking of the top 5% were selected for further analysis by immunohistochemistry on paraffin sections,. along with the tumor suppressor genes p16 and p53, in a total of 62 patients including 55 for whom >4-year clinical data was available. Using univariate and multivariate survival analysis, we identified SPARC/osteonectin as a powerful independent prognostic marker for short disease-free interval (DFI) (p < 0.002) and poor overall survival (OS) (p = 0.018) of HNSCC patients. In combination with other ECM proteins found in our analysis, PAI-1 and uPA, the association with DFI and OS became even more significant (p < 0.001). Our study represents the first instance of SPARC as an independent prognostic marker in HNSCC.

Alpha B-crystallin, a new independent marker for poor prognosis in head and neck cancer

Objectives. Gene expression profiling has provided many insights into tumor progression but translation to clinical practice has been limited. We have previously identified a list of potential markers by the differences of expression profiling of seven matched head and neck cancer (HNSCC) tumors with autologous normal oral mucosa (NOM). Alpha B-crystallin (CRYAB) was in the top 5% of genes identified with statistically significant differences in expression between tumor and NOM at the mRNA level. The objective was to confirm this in routine paraffin sections at the protein level. Study Design: The level of alpha B-crystallin was determined in tumors of 62 HNSCC patients whose prognosis was known for 5 years. Methods. Immunohistochemical detection of alpha B-crystallin expression was performed on HNSCC paraffin sections. Results. Univariate survival analysis identified lack of alpha B-crystallin staining as an independent prognostic marker for disease-free interval (P < 0.001) and overall survival (P < 0.002) of HNSCC patients over the 5-year observation period. Notably, all 13 patients (100%), including 5 patients with nodal disease whose tumors lacked alpha B-crystallin had no recurrences (P < 0.001). Nineteen of 27 node-negative patients stained positive for alpha B-crystallin and seven of the 19 (36.8%) had recurrences. Conclusion: Presence or absence of expression of alpha B-crystallin was a powerful marker for prognosis in this series of patients.

Family structure and age at menarche: A children-of-twins approach

Girls who grow up in households with an unrelated adult male reach menarche earlier than peers, a finding hypothesized to be an evolutionary strategy for families under stress. The authors tested the alternative hypothesis that nonrandom selection into stepfathering due to shared environmental and/or genetic predispositions creates a spurious relation between stepfathering and early menarche. Using the unique controls for genetic and shared environmental experiences offered by the children-of-twins design, the authors found that cousins discordant for stepfathering did not differ in age of menarche. Moreover, controlling for mother's age of menarche eliminated differences in menarcheal age associated with stepfathering in unrelated girls. These findings strongly suggest selection, and not causation, accounts for the relationship between stepfathering and early menarche.

Prognostic value of intraventricular dyssynchrony according to clinical stage of left ventricular impairment

Intraventricular dyssynchrony has prognostic implications in patients who have severe functional limitation and decreased ejection fraction. Patients with less advanced cardiac disease often exhibit intraventricular dyssynchrony, but there is little available information about its prognostic relevance in such patients. We investigated the prognostic effect of intraventricular dyssynchrony on outcome in 318 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease who were classified according to the presence or absence of left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure symptoms. Mortality was considered the primary end point over a median follow-up of 56 months, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used for survival analysis. Despite a low prevalence (8%) of left bundle branch block, there was a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony even in patients without symptomatic heart failure. The magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony correlated poorly with QRS duration (r = 0.25),end-systolic volume index (r = 0.27), and number of scar segments (r = 0.25). There,were 58 deaths during follow-up. Ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony predicted outcome, but magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony was an independent predictor of survival only in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction. In conclusion, patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease have a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony. Although ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and intraventricular dyssynchrony are potentially important prognostic markers, the relative importance of intraventricular dyssynchrony changes with the clinical setting and, may be greatest-in patients with preclinical disease. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative predictive value of intraventricular dysynchrony in determining long-term outcome in patients with known or suspected coronary disease

Improvement of intra-ventricular dysynchrony (IVD) in pts undergoing bi-ventricular pacing is associated with clinical improvementbut little isknownabout the relationship between IVD and prognosis.We sought whether IVD influences long-term outcome in pts with known or suspected coronary disease (CAD). Tissue Doppler imaging was performed in 184 pts (aged 61±10 years, 67% male) prior to dobutamine echo. From velocity curves the interval between QRS onset and max systolic velocity (Ts) was measured in basal septal, lateral, inferior and anterior segments. The maximal difference in Ts between segments (TsMax) was used as a measure of IVD. The standard deviation (TsSD) between all segments and the septal-lateral difference (TsSL) were also calculated. Pts were followed up for a median interval of 5 years and a Cox model used for survival analysis. The medianwall motion index (WMI) was 1.3 (IQR 1.0–1.8) at rest and 1.4 (IQR 1.3–1.9) at stress. The table shows IVD parameters. Forty-one deaths occurred during follow-up. Pts who died during follow-up, compared to survivors, showed greater IVD. WMI at rest (p = 0.03) and peak stress (p = 0.02), TsSD (p = 0.06), TsSL (p = 0.02) and TsMax (p = 0.05) but not QRS width were univariate predictors of mortality. TsSL was the only independent predictor of death (p = 0.01). Therefore, IVD is common in pts with known or suspected CAD. Pts with more IVD have reduced long-term survival, independent of WMI.