964 resultados para SCENARIOS
Resumo:
This article provides a preliminary assessment of the agroterrorism threat to Australia. Based on primary research conducted among Australia's biotechnology and agriculture sectors, it examines current threat scenarios and existing vulnerabilities within Australia. It argues that the threat of agroterrorism to Australia is real, and, for prudential reasons, should be taken more seriously by government authorities. The article concludes with a series of broad policy options to mitigate the threat of agroterrorism to Australia.
Resumo:
Recently, mild AKI has been considered as a risk factor for mortality in different scenarios. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the risk factors for two distinct definitions of AKI after elective repair of aortic aneurysms. Logistic regression was carried out to identify independent risk factors for AKI ( defined as >= 25% or >= 50% increase in baseline SCr within 48 h after surgery, AKI 25% and AKI 50%, respectively) and for mortality. Of 77 patients studied ( mean age 68 +/- 10, 83% male), 57% developed AKI 25% and 33.7% AKI 50%. There were no differences between AKI and control groups regarding comorbidities and diameter of aneurysms. However, AKI patients needed a supra-renal aortic cross-clamping more frequently and were more severely ill. Overall in-hospital mortality was 27.3%, which was markedly higher in those requiring a supra-renal aortic cross-clamping. The risk factors for AKI 25% were suprarenal aortic cross-clamping ( odds ratio 5.51, 95% CI 1.05-36.12, p = 0.04) and duration of operation for AKI 25% ( OR 6.67, 95% CI 2.23-19.9, p < 0.001). For AKI 50%, in addition to those factors, post-operative use of vasoactive drugs remained as an independent factor ( OR 6.13, 95% CI 1.64-22.8, p = 0.005). The risk factors associated with mortality were need of supra-renal aortic cross-clamping ( OR 9.6, 95% CI 1.37-67.88, p = 0.02), development of AKI 50% ( OR 8.84, 95% CI 1.31-59.39, p = 0.02), baseline GFR lower than 49 mL/min ( OR 17.07, 95% CI 2.00 145.23, p = 0.009), and serum glucose > 118 mg/dL in the post-operative period ( OR 19.99, 95% CI 2.32-172.28, p = 0.006). An increase of at least 50% in baseline SCr is a common event after surgical repair of aortic aneurysms, particularly when a supra-renal aortic cross-clamping is needed. Along with baseline moderate chronic renal failure, AKI is an independent factor contributing to the high mortality found in this scenario.
Resumo:
Background Meta-analysis is increasingly being employed as a screening procedure in large-scale association studies to select promising variants for follow-up studies. However, standard methods for meta-analysis require the assumption of an underlying genetic model, which is typically unknown a priori. This drawback can introduce model misspecifications, causing power to be suboptimal, or the evaluation of multiple genetic models, which augments the number of false-positive associations, ultimately leading to waste of resources with fruitless replication studies. We used simulated meta-analyses of large genetic association studies to investigate naive strategies of genetic model specification to optimize screenings of genome-wide meta-analysis signals for further replication. Methods Different methods, meta-analytical models and strategies were compared in terms of power and type-I error. Simulations were carried out for a binary trait in a wide range of true genetic models, genome-wide thresholds, minor allele frequencies (MAFs), odds ratios and between-study heterogeneity (tau(2)). Results Among the investigated strategies, a simple Bonferroni-corrected approach that fits both multiplicative and recessive models was found to be optimal in most examined scenarios, reducing the likelihood of false discoveries and enhancing power in scenarios with small MAFs either in the presence or in absence of heterogeneity. Nonetheless, this strategy is sensitive to tau(2) whenever the susceptibility allele is common (MAF epsilon 30%), resulting in an increased number of false-positive associations compared with an analysis that considers only the multiplicative model. Conclusion Invoking a simple Bonferroni adjustment and testing for both multiplicative and recessive models is fast and an optimal strategy in large meta-analysis-based screenings. However, care must be taken when examined variants are common, where specification of a multiplicative model alone may be preferable.
Resumo:
We analyze the properties of light beams carrying phase singularities, or optical vortices. The transformations of topological charge during free-space propagation of a light wave, which is a combination of a Gaussian beam and a multiple charged optical vortex within a Gaussian envelope, are studied both in theory and experiment. We revise the existing knowledge about topological charge conservation, and demonstrate possible scenarios where additional vortices appear or annihilate during free propagation of such a combined beam. Coaxial interference of optical vortices is also analyzed, and the general rule for angular-momentum density distribution in a combined beam is established. We show that, in spite of any variation in the number of vortices in a combined beam, the total angular momentum is constant during the propagation. [S1050-2947(97)09910-1].
Resumo:
Empowering front-line staff to deal with service failures has been proposed as a method of recovering from service breakdown and ensuring greater customer satisfaction. However, no empirical study has investigated consumer responses to empowerment strategies. This research investigates the effect on customer satisfaction and service quality of two employee characteristics: the degree to which the employee is empowered (full, limited, and none), and the employee's communication style (accommodative - informal and personal, and underaccommodative-formal and impersonal). These employee characteristics are studied within the context of service failures. Subjects were shown videotaped service scenarios, and asked to complete satisfaction and service quality ratings. Results revealed that the fully empowered employee produced more customer satisfaction than the other conditions, but only when the service provider used an accommodating style of communication. Fully empowered and nonempowered employees were not judged differently when an underaccommodating style of communication was adopted. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Resumo:
Sepsis is the systemic inflammatory response syndrome secondary to a local infection, and severe sepsis and septic shock are the more devastating scenarios of this disease. In the last decade, considerable achievements were obtained in sepsis knowledge, and an international campaign was developed to improve the treatment of this condition. However, sepsis is still one of the most important causes of death in intensive care units. The early stages of sepsis are characterized by a variety of hemodynamic derangements that induce a systemic imbalance between tissue oxygen supply and demand, leading to global tissue hypoxia. This dysfunction, which may occur in patients presenting normal vital signs, can be accompanied by a significant increase in both morbidity and mortality. The early identification of high-risk sepsis patients through tissue perfusion markers such as lactate and venous oxygen saturation is crucial for prompt initiation of therapeutic support, which includes early goal-directed therapy as necessary. The purpose of this article was to review the most commonly used hemodynamic and perfusion parameters for hemodynamic optimization in sepsis, emphasizing the physiological background for their use and the studies that demonstrated their effectiveness as goals of volemic resuscitation.
Resumo:
Cerebral toxoplasmosis is the most common cerebral mass lesion in AIDS patients in Brazil, and results in high mortality and morbidity, despite free access to HAART (highly active antiretroviral treatment). Molecular diagnosis based on conventional PCR (cnPCR) or real-time quantitative PCR (qrtPCR) has been indispensable for definitive diagnosis. We report here the evaluation of qrtPCR with blood and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples from AIDS patients in Brazil. This prospective study was conducted for 2 years, analysing DNA samples extracted from 149 AIDS patients (98 blood and 51 CSF samples) with confirmed clinical and radiological diagnosis The laboratory diagnosis included cnPCR (with the B22/B23 primer set) and indirect immunofluorescence (IF). For qrtPCR, two primer sets were simultaneously designed based on described genes and using a 6-carboxyfluorescein dye-labelled TaqMan MGB (minor groove binder) probe One was Bug, which amplified a sequence from the B1 gene The other was the RETg, which amplified a PCR product of the 529 bp sequence. The overall cnPCR and qrtPCR results were positive results were observed in 33.6% (50) patients The sensitivities were 98% for cnPCR (B22/B23), and 86 and 98% for qrtPCR (B1Tg and RETg, respectively). Negative reactions were observed in 66 4% patients. The specificities were 97% for cnPCR and qrtPCR (B1Tg). and 88.8% for RETg These data show that RETg PCR is highly sensitive as it amplifies a repeat region with many copies; however, its specificity is lower than the other markers However, B1Tg PCR had good specificity, but lower sensitivity Among the patients, 20 had blood and CSF collected simultaneously Thus, their results permitted us to analyse and compare molecular, serological and clinical diagnosis for a better understanding of the different scenarios of laboratorial and clinical diagnosis. For nine patients with confirmed cerebral toxoplasmosis diagnosis, four scenarios were observed: (i) and (ii) negative molecular diagnosis for CSF and positive for blood with variable IF titres for the sera and CSF (negative or positive), (iii) positive molecular diagnosis with CSF and negative with blood, and (iv) positive molecular diagnosis in both samples. In the latter two situations, normally the IF titres in sera and CSF are variable. Other opportunistic infections were shown in 11 patients Despite the IF titres in sera and CSF being variable, all of them had negative molecular diagnosis for both samples qrtPCR allows for a rapid identification of Toxoplasma gondii DNA in patient samples; in a minority of cases discrepancies occur with the cnPCR.
Resumo:
The comparative method, the inference of biological processes from phylogenetic patterns, is founded on the reliability of the phylogenetic tree. In attempting to apply the comparative method to the understanding of the evolution of parasitism in the phylum Platyhelminthes, we have highlighted several points we consider to be of value along with many problems. We discuss four of these topics. Firstly, we view the group at a phylum level, in particular discussing the importance of establishing the sister taxon to the obligate parasite group, the Neodermata, for addressing such questions as the monophyly, parasitism or the endo or ectoparasitic nature of the early parasites. The variety of non-congruent phylogenetic trees presented so far, utilising either or both morphological and molecular data, gives rise to the suggestion that any evolutionary scenarios presented at this stage be treated as interesting hypotheses rather than well-supported theories. Our second point of discussion is the conflict between morphological and molecular estimates of monogenean evolution. The Monogenea presents several well-established morphological autapomorphies, such that morphology consistently estimates the group as monophyletic, whereas molecular sequence analyses indicate paraphyly, with different genes giving different topologies. We discuss the problem of reconciling gene and species trees. Thirdly, we use recent phylogenetic results on the tapeworms to interpret the evolution of strobilation, proglottization, segmentation and scolex structure. In relation to the latter, the results presented indicate that the higher cestodes are diphyletic, with one branch difossate and the other tetrafossate. Finally, we use a SSU rDNA phylogenetic tree of the Trematoda as a basis for the discussion of an aspect of the digenean life-cycle, namely the nature of the first intermediate host. Frequent episodes of host-switching, between gastropod and bivalve hosts or even into annelids, are indicated.
Resumo:
This paper examines the so-called ’Unagi-sentence‘ in Japanese. So far, it has been taken for granted that the Unagi-sentence is incomplete syntactically and/or semantically. Because its structure apparently neither provides a fully-fledged semantic meaning, nor furnishes a plausible syntactic pattern (such as ‘subject-predicate‘), a number of previous works have considered the Unagi-sentence to be elliptic, and consequently reconstructed it as a complete sentence or established intermediate structures to account for its grammatical form. Other researchers have not used elliptic solutions, but sought to discover logical connections between the parts of the Unagi-sentence themselves. As a result, fixing their entire attention on the internal structure of the Unagi-sentence, these researchers inevitably needed to establish hypothetical constructs in order to explain the structure of the Unagi-sentence. The present author believes that the Unagi-sentence is neither incomplete nor a result of some hypothetical processes. The Unagi-sentence stands on its own as a complete utterance. It is basically an NP utterance which can be expanded to the form NP1 wa + NP2 da and its variations. The occurrence of the Unagi-sentence depends heavily on a presupposed context and its pragmatic features, without which the Unagi-sentence cannot exist. It is these features that the present article seeks to elucidate.
Resumo:
Geographical information systems (GIS) coupled to 3D visualisation technology is an emerging tool for urban planning and landscape design applications. The utility of 3D GIS for realistically visualising the built environment and proposed development scenarios is much advocated in the literature. Planners assess the merits of proposed changes using visual impact assessment (VIA). We have used Arcview GIS and visualisation software: called PolyTRIM from the University of Toronto, Centre for Landscape Research (CLR) to create a 3D scene for the entrance to a University campus. The paper investigates the thesis that to facilitate VIA in planning and design requires not only visualisation, but also a structured evaluation technique (Delphi) to arbitrate the decision-making process. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Understanding the genetic architecture of quantitative traits can greatly assist the design of strategies for their manipulation in plant-breeding programs. For a number of traits, genetic variation can be the result of segregation of a few major genes and many polygenes (minor genes). The joint segregation analysis (JSA) is a maximum-likelihood approach for fitting segregation models through the simultaneous use of phenotypic information from multiple generations. Our objective in this paper was to use computer simulation to quantify the power of the JSA method for testing the mixed-inheritance model for quantitative traits when it was applied to the six basic generations: both parents (P-1 and P-2), F-1, F-2, and both backcross generations (B-1 and B-2) derived from crossing the F-1 to each parent. A total of 1968 genetic model-experiment scenarios were considered in the simulation study to quantify the power of the method. Factors that interacted to influence the power of the JSA method to correctly detect genetic models were: (1) whether there were one or two major genes in combination with polygenes, (2) the heritability of the major genes and polygenes, (3) the level of dispersion of the major genes and polygenes between the two parents, and (4) the number of individuals examined in each generation (population size). The greatest levels of power were observed for the genetic models defined with simple inheritance; e.g., the power was greater than 90% for the one major gene model, regardless of the population size and major-gene heritability. Lower levels of power were observed for the genetic models with complex inheritance (major genes and polygenes), low heritability, small population sizes and a large dispersion of favourable genes among the two parents; e.g., the power was less than 5% for the two major-gene model with a heritability value of 0.3 and population sizes of 100 individuals. The JSA methodology was then applied to a previously studied sorghum data-set to investigate the genetic control of the putative drought resistance-trait osmotic adjustment in three crosses. The previous study concluded that there were two major genes segregating for osmotic adjustment in the three crosses. Application of the JSA method resulted in a change in the proposed genetic model. The presence of the two major genes was confirmed with the addition of an unspecified number of polygenes.
Resumo:
Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.
Resumo:
A numerical modelling strategy has been developed in order to quantify the magnitude of induced stresses at the boundaries of production level and undercut level drifts for various in situ stress environments and undercut scenarios. The results of the stress modelling were in line with qualitative experiential guidelines and a limited number of induced stress measurements documented from caving sites. A number of stress charts were developed which quantify the maximum boundary stresses in drift roofs for varying in situ stress regimes, depths and undercut scenarios. This enabled many of the experiential guidelines to be quantified and bounded. A limited number of case histories of support and support performance in cave mine drifts were compared to support recommendations using the NGI classification system, The stress charts were used to estimate the Stress Reduction Factor for this system. The back-analyses suggested that the NGI classification system might be able to give preliminary estimates of support requirements in caving mines with modifications relating to rock bolt length and the support of production level intersections. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Background: This paper details contemporary ethical dilemmas encountered by Queensland dentists. Methods: An age-stratified sample of 499 dentists resident in Queensland was surveyed. The questionnaire contained scenarios of five common ethical dilemmas. In addition, open-ended questions sought the respondent's most frequent, difficult and recent ethical dilemmas, and where they would seek guidance in dealing with ethical problems. Results: Respondents acknowledged the patient's rights in treatment decisions and the dentist's right to refuse demands for inappropriate treatment. However, responses varied in the extent to which dentists may influence treatment decisions. Few respondents would ignore evidence of poor dental treatment but they are evenly divided in choosing to inform the patient, the dentist or both. Poor quality treatment is the most frequent and difficult dilemma, and half have experienced this problem recently. Requests by patients for fraudulent receipts occur in a third of responses. Dentists develop ethical values from multiple sources but for help with dental ethical problems, 90 per cent of respondents would consult another dentist. Conclusions: Of the ethical dilemmas discussed in this survey, those relating to poor quality treatment confronted most respondents. Also the actions of dentists in dealing with these dilemmas were most varied.
Resumo:
A simple method is provided for calculating transport rates of not too fine (d(50) greater than or equal to 0.20 mm) sand under sheet flow conditions. The method consists of a Meyer-Peter-type transport formula operating on a time-varying Shields parameter, which accounts for both acceleration-asymmetry and boundary layer streaming. While velocity moment formulae, e.g.., = Constant x calibrated against U-tube measurements, fail spectacularly under some real waves (Ribberink, J.S., Dohmen-Janssen, C.M., Hanes, D.M., McLean, S.R., Vincent, C., 2000. Near-bed sand transport mechanisms under waves. Proc. 27th Int. Conf. Coastal Engineering, Sydney, ASCE, New York, pp. 3263-3276, Fig. 12), the new method predicts the real wave observations equally well. The reason that the velocity moment formulae fail under these waves is partly the presence of boundary layer streaming and partly the saw-tooth asymmetry, i.e., the front of the waves being steeper than the back. Waves with saw-tooth asymmetry may generate a net landward sediment transport even if = 0, because of the more abrupt acceleration under the steep front. More abrupt accelerations are associated with thinner boundary layers and greater pressure gradients for a given velocity magnitude. The two real wave effects are incorporated in a model of the form Q(s)(t) = Q(s)[theta(t)] rather than Q(S)(t) = Q(S)[u(infinity)(t)], i.e., by expressing the transport rate in terms of an instantaneous Shields parameter rather than in terms of the free stream velocity, and accounting for both streaming and accelerations in the 0(t) calculations. The instantaneous friction velocities u(*)(t) and subsequently theta(t) are calculated as follows. Firstly, a linear filter incorporating the grain roughness friction factor f(2.5) and a phase angle phi(tau) is applied to u(infinity)(t). This delivers u(*)(t) which is used to calculate an instantaneous grain roughness Shields parameter theta(2.5)(t). Secondly, a constant bed shear stress is added which corresponds to the streaming related bed shear stress -rho ($) over bar((u) over tilde(w) over tilde)(infinity) . The method can be applied to any u(infinity)(t) time series, but further experimental validation is recommended before application to conditions that differ strongly from the ones considered below. The method is not recommended for rippled beds or for sheet flow with typical prototype wave periods and d(50) < 0.20 turn. In such scenarios, time lags related to vertical sediment movement become important, and these are not considered by the present model. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.