An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Risk accountability in the tender process of contractors in Ghana and UK

The process of how contractors take account of risk when calculating their bids for construction work is investigated based on preliminary investigations and case studies in Ghana and UK. Ghana and UK were chosen, more or less arbitrarily, for the purpose of case studies, and to test the idea that there are systematic differences between the approaches in different places. Clear differences were found in the risk pricing approaches of contractors in the two countries. The difference appeared to emanate from the professional knowledge and competence of the bid team members, company policy, corporate accountability and the business environments in which the contractors operate. Both groups of contractors take account of risk in estimates. However, risk accountability was found to be higher on the agenda in the tender process of UK contractors, documented more systematically, and assessed and managed more rigorously with input from the whole bid team. Risk accountability takes place at three levels of the tender process and is dictated strongly by market forces and company circumstances.

A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems

We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: <2°C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2–3°C, and >3°C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50°N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming >3°C than for <2°C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of ≈1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for >3°C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant.

Increased levels of microparticles originating from endothelial cells, platelets and erythrocytes in subjects with metabolic syndrome: relationship with oxidative stress

Background and aims The Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk. Circulating microparticles (MP) are involved in the pathogenesis of atherothrombotic disorders and are raised in individual with CVD. We measured their level and cellular origin in subjects with MetS and analyzed their associations with 1/anthropometric and biological parameters of MetS, 2/inflammation and oxidative stress markers. Methods and results Eighty-eight subjects with the MetS according to the NCEP-ATPIII definition were enrolled in a bicentric study and compared to 27 healthy controls. AnnexinV-positive MP (TMP), MP derived from platelets (PMP), erythrocytes (ErMP), endothelial cells (EMP), leukocytes (LMP) and granulocytes (PNMP) were determined by flow cytometry. MetS subjects had significantly higher counts/μl of TMP (730.6 ± 49.7 vs 352.8 ± 35.6), PMP (416.0 ± 43.8 vs 250.5 ± 23.5), ErMP (243.8 ± 22.1 vs 73.6 ± 19.6) and EMP (7.8 ± 0.8 vs 4.0 ± 1.0) compared with controls. LMP and PNMP were not statistically different between groups. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that each criterion for the MetS influenced the number of TMP. Waist girth was a significant determinant of PMP and EMP level and blood pressure was correlated with EMP level. Glycemia positively correlated with PMP level whereas dyslipidemia influenced EMP and ErMP levels. Interestingly, the oxidative stress markers, plasma glutathione peroxydase and urinary 8-iso-prostaglandin F2 α, independently influenced TMP and PMP levels whereas inflammatory markers did not, irrespective of MP type. Conclusion Increased levels of TMP, PMP, ErMP and EMP are associated with individual metabolic abnormalities of MetS and oxidative stress. Whether MP assessment may represent a marker for risk stratification or a target for pharmacological intervention deserves further investigation.

Polyunsaturated fatty acids of the n-6 and n-3 series: effects on postprandial lipid and apolipoprotein levels in healthy men

OBJECTIVE: The present study was carried out to determine effects of test meals of different fatty acid compositions on postprandial lipoprotein and apolipoprotein metabolism. DESIGN: The study was a randomized, single blind design. SETTING: The study was carried out in the Clinical Investigation Unit of the Royal Surrey County Hospital. SUBJECTS: Twelve male normal subjects with an average age of 22.4 +/- 1.4 years (mean +/- SD) were selected from the student population of the University of Surrey; one subject dropped out of the study because he found the test meal unpalatable. INTERVENTIONS: The subjects were given three evening test meals on three separate occasions, in which the oils used were either a mixed oil (rich in saturated fatty acids and approximated the fatty acid intake of the current UK diet), corn oil (rich in n-6 fatty acids), or fish oil (rich in n-3 fatty acids) 40 g of the oil under investigation were incorporated into a rice-based test meal. Triacylglycerol-rich lipoproteins-triacylglycerol (TRL-TAG), TRL-cholesterol (TRL-cholesterol), plasma-TAG, plasma cholesterol (T-C), and serum apolipoprotein A-I and B (apo A-I and B) responses were measured. Postprandial responses were followed for 11 h. RESULTS: Postprandial plasma-TAG responses, calculated as incremental areas under the response curves (IAUC) were significantly reduced following the fish oil meal [365.5 +/- 145.4 mmol/l x min (mean +/- SD)[ compared with the mixed oil meal (552.0 +/- 141.7 mmol/l x min) (P < 0.05) and there was a strong trend towards the same direction in the TRL-TAG responses. In all instances, plasma-and TRL-TAG showed a biphasic response with increased concentrations occurring at 1h and between 3 and 7h postprandially. TRL-cholesterol, T-C, and serum apo A-I and B responses to the three meals were similar. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the view that fish oils decrease postprandial lipaemia and this may be an important aspect of their beneficial effects in reducing risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Further work is required to determine the mechanisms responsible for this effect.

N-nitroso compound exposure-associated transcriptomic profiles are indicative of an increased risk for colorectal cancer

Endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds (NOCs), which are known animal carcinogens, could contribute to human carcinogenesis but definitive evidence is still lacking. To investigate the relevance of NOCs in human colorectal cancer (CRC) development, we analyzed whole genome gene expression modifications in human colon biopsies in relation to fecal NOC exposure. We had a particular interest in patients suffering from intestinal inflammation as this may stimulate endogenous NOC formation, and consequently predispose to CRC risk. Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients diagnosed with ulcerative colitis and irritable bowel syndrome patients without inflammation, serving as controls, were therefore recruited. Fecal NOC were demonstrated in the majority of subjects. By associating gene expression levels of all subjects to fecal NOC levels, we identified a NOC exposure-associated transcriptomic response that suggests that physiological NOC concentrations may potentially induce genotoxic responses and chromatin modifications in human colon tissue, both of which are linked to carcinogenicity. In a network analysis, chromatin modifications were linked to 11 significantly modulated histone genes, pointing towards a possible epigenetic mechanism that may be relevant in comprehending NOC-induced carcinogenesis. In addition, pro-inflammatory transcriptomic modifications were identified in visually non-inflamed regions of the IBD colon. However, fecal NOC levels were slightly but not significantly increased in IBD patients, suggesting that inflammation did not strongly stimulate NOC formation. We conclude that NOC exposure is associated with gene expression modifications in the human colon that may suggest a potential role of these compounds in CRC development.

A value chain approach to animal diseases risk management: technical foundations and practical framework for field application

Classical risk assessment approaches for animal diseases are influenced by the probability of release, exposure and consequences of a hazard affecting a livestock population. Once a pathogen enters into domestic livestock, potential risks of exposure and infection both to animals and people extend through a chain of economic activities related to producing, buying and selling of animals and products. Therefore, in order to understand economic drivers of animal diseases in different ecosystems and to come up with effective and efficient measures to manage disease risks from a country or region, the entire value chain and related markets for animal and product needs to be analysed to come out with practical and cost effective risk management options agreed by actors and players on those value chains. Value chain analysis enriches disease risk assessment providing a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration, which seems to be in increasing demand for problems concerning infectious livestock diseases. The best way to achieve this is to ensure that veterinary epidemiologists and social scientists work together throughout the process at all levels.

The dose rate debate: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose?

This paper reviews the evidence relating to the question: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose? The development of fungicide resistance progresses through three key phases. During the ‘emergence phase’ the resistant strain has to arise through mutation and invasion. During the subsequent ‘selection phase’, the resistant strain is present in the pathogen population and the fraction of the pathogen population carrying the resistance increases due to the selection pressure caused by the fungicide. During the final phase of ‘adjustment’, the dose or choice of fungicide may need to be changed to maintain effective control over a pathogen population where resistance has developed to intermediate levels. Emergence phase: no experimental publications and only one model study report on the emergence phase, and we conclude that work in this area is needed. Selection phase: all the published experimental work, and virtually all model studies, relate to the selection phase. Seven peer reviewed and four non-peer reviewed publications report experimental evidence. All show increased selection for fungicide resistance with increased fungicide dose, except for one peer reviewed publication that does not detect any selection irrespective of dose and one conference proceedings publication which claims evidence for increased selection at a lower dose. In the mathematical models published, no evidence has been found that a lower dose could lead to a higher risk of fungicide resistance selection. We discuss areas of the dose rate debate that need further study. These include further work on pathogen-fungicide combinations where the pathogen develops partial resistance to the fungicide and work on the emergence phase.

The impact of corporate social performance on financial risk and utility: a longitudinal analysis

This study focuses on the wealth-protective effects of socially responsible firm behavior by examining the association between corporate social performance (CSP) and financial risk for an extensive panel data sample of S&P 500 companies between the years 1992 and 2009. In addition, the link between CSP and investor utility is investigated. The main findings are that corporate social responsibility is negatively but weakly related to systematic firm risk and that corporate social irresponsibility is positively and strongly related to financial risk. The fact that both conventional and downside risk measures lead to the same conclusions adds convergent validity to the analysis. However, the risk-return trade-off appears to be such that no clear utility gain or loss can be realized by investing in firms characterized by different levels of social and environmental performance. Overall volatility conditions of the financial markets are shown to play a moderating role in the nature and strength of the CSP-risk relationship.

The longitudinal development of emotion regulation capacities in children at risk for externalizing disorders

The development of emotional regulation capacities in children at high versus low risk for externalizing disorder was examined in a longitudinal study investigating: a) whether disturbances in emotion regulation precede and predict the emergence of externalizing symptoms; and b) whether sensitive maternal behavior is a significant influence on the development of child emotion regulation. Families experiencing high (n=58) and low (n=63) levels of psychosocial adversity were recruited to the study during pregnancy. Direct observational assessments of child emotion regulation capacities and maternal sensitivity were completed in early infancy, at 12 and 18-months, and at 5-years. Key findings were as follows. First, high risk children showed poorer emotion regulation capacities than their low risk counterparts at every stage of assessment. Second, from 12-months onwards, emotion regulation capacities showed a degree of stability, and were associated with behavioral problems, both concurrently and prospectively. Third, maternal sensitivity was related to child emotion regulation capacities throughout development, with poorer emotion regulation in the high risk group being associated with lower maternal sensitivity. The results are consistent with a causal role for problems in the regulation of negative emotions in the etiology of externalizing psychopathology, and highlight insensitive parenting as a potentially key developmental influence.

Application of the BRAFO-tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on natural foods

There is evidence that consumption of fish, especially oily fish, has substantial beneficial effects on health. In particular an inverse relationship of oily fish intake to coronary heart disease incidence has been established. These beneficial effects are ascribed to fish oil components including long chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. On the other hand it should be noted that oily fish also contains hazardous substances such as dioxins, PCBs and methylmercury. Soy consumption has been associated with potential beneficial and adverse effects. The claimed benefits include reduced risk of cardiovascular disease; osteoporosis, breast and prostate cancer whereas potential adverse effects include impaired thyroid function, disruption of sex hormone levels, changes in reproductive function and increased breast cancer risk The two cases of natural foods highlight the need to consider both risks and benefits in order to establish the net health impact associated to the consumption of specific food products. Within the Sixth Framework programme of the European Commission, the BRAFO project was funded to develop a framework that allows for the quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits in relation to foods and food compounds. This paper describes the application of the developed framework to two natural foods, farmed salmon and soy protein. We conclude that the BRAFO methodology is highly applicable to natural foods. It will help the benefit-risk managers in selecting the appropriate dietary recommendations for the population.

Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

In situ preservation of wetland heritage: hydrological and chemical change in the burial environment of the Somerset Levels, UK.

In Situ preservation is a core strategy for the conservation and management of waterlogged remains at wetland sites. Inorganic and organic remains can, however, quickly become degraded, or lost entirely, as a result of chemical or hydrological changes. Monitoring is therefore crucial in identifying baseline data for a site, the extent of spatial and or temporal variability, and in evaluating the potential impacts of these variables on current and future In Situ preservation potential. Since August 2009, monthly monitoring has taken place at the internationally important Iron Age site of Glastonbury Lake Village in the Somerset Levels, UK. A spatial, stratigraphic, and analytical approach to the analysis of sediment horizons and monitoring of groundwater chemistry, redox potential, water table depth and soil moisture (using TDR) was used to characterize the site. Significant spatial and temporal variability has been identified, with results from water-table monitoring and some initial chemical analysis from Glastonbury presented here. It appears that during dry periods parts of this site are at risk from desiccation. Analysis of the chemical data, in addition to integrating the results from the other parameters, is ongoing, with the aim of clarifying the risk to the entire site.

Association of low adiponectin levels with the metabolic syndrome--the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES-4)

The aim of the study was to assess the relation of adiponectin levels with the metabolic syndrome in Asian Indians, a high-risk group for diabetes and premature coronary artery disease. The study was conducted on 100 (50 men and 50 women) type 2 diabetic subjects and 100 age and sex matched subjects with normal glucose tolerance selected from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study, an ongoing population study in Chennai in southern India. Metabolic syndrome was defined using modified Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII) guidelines. Adiponectin values were significantly lower in diabetic subjects (men: 5.2 vs 8.3 microg/mL, P=.00l; women: 7.6 vs 11.1 microg/mL, P<.00l) and those with the metabolic syndrome (men: 5.0 vs 6.8 microg/mL, P=.01; women: 6.5 vs 9.9 microg/mL, P=.001) compared with those without. Linear regression analysis revealed adiponectin to be associated with body mass index (P<.05), waist circumference (P<.01), fasting plasma glucose (P=.001), glycated hemoglobin (P<.001), triglycerides (P<.00l), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (P<.001), cholesterol/HDL ratio (P<.00l), and insulin resistance measured by homeostasis assessment model (P<.00l). Factor analysis identified 2 factors: factor 1, negatively loaded with adiponectin and HDL cholesterol and positively loaded with triglycerides, waist circumference, and insulin resistance measured by homeostasis assessment model; and factor 2, with a positive loading of waist circumference and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Logistic regression analysis revealed adiponectin to be negatively associated with metabolic syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 0.365; P<.001) even after adjusting for age (OR, 0.344; P<.00l), sex (OR, 0.293; P<.001), and body mass index (OR, 0.292; P<.00l). Lower adiponectin levels are associated with the metabolic syndrome per se and several of its components, particularly, diabetes, insulin resistance, and dyslipidemia in this urban south Indian population.

A longitudinal study of child sleep in high and low risk families: relationship to early maternal settling strategies and child psychological functioning

Objectives To investigate whether sleep disturbances previously found to characterise high risk infants: (a) persist into childhood; (b) are influenced by early maternal settling strategies and (c) predict cognitive and emotional/behavioural functioning. Methods Mothers experiencing high and low levels of psychosocial adversity (risk) were recruited antenatally and longitudinally assessed with their children. Mothers completed measures of settling strategies and infant sleep postnatally, and at 12 and 18 months, infant age. At five years, child sleep characteristics were measured via an actigraphy and maternal report; IQ and child adjustment were also assessed. Results Sleep disturbances observed in high-risk infants persisted at five years. Maternal involvement in infant settling was greater in high risk mothers, and predicted less optimal sleep at five years. Poorer five year sleep was associated with concurrent child anxiety/depression and aggression, but there was limited evidence for an influence of early sleep problems. Associations between infant/child sleep characteristics and IQ were also limited. Conclusions Early maternal over-involvement in infant settling is associated with less optimal sleep in children, which in turn, is related to child adjustment. The findings highlight the importance of supporting parents in the early development of good settling practices, particularly in high-risk populations.