Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model*

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant -0.49 K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to -2.2 K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of -0.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims.

The impact of over 80 years of land cover changes on bee and wasp pollinator communities in England

Change in land cover is thought to be one of the key drivers of pollinator declines, and yet there is a dearth of studies exploring the relationships between historical changes in land cover and shifts in pollinator communities. Here, we explore, for the first time, land cover changes in England over more than 80 years, and relate them to concurrent shifts in bee and wasp species richness and community composition. Using historical data from 14 sites across four counties, we quantify the key land cover changes within and around these sites and estimate the changes in richness and composition of pollinators. Land cover changes within sites, as well as changes within a 1 km radius outside the sites, have significant effects on richness and composition of bee and wasp species, with changes in edge habitats between major land classes also having a key influence. Our results highlight not just the land cover changes that may be detrimental to pollinator communities, but also provide an insight into how increases in habitat diversity may benefit species diversity, and could thus help inform policy and practice for future land management.

Bayesian analysis of uncertainty in the GlobCover 2009 land cover product at climate model grid scale

Land cover data derived from satellites are commonly used to prescribe inputs to models of the land surface. Since such data inevitably contains errors, quantifying how uncertainties in the data affect a model’s output is important. To do so, a spatial distribution of possible land cover values is required to propagate through the model’s simulation. However, at large scales, such as those required for climate models, such spatial modelling can be difficult. Also, computer models often require land cover proportions at sites larger than the original map scale as inputs, and it is the uncertainty in these proportions that this article discusses. This paper describes a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that generates realisations of land cover proportions from the posterior distribution as implied by a Bayesian analysis that combines spatial information in the land cover map and its associated confusion matrix. The technique is computationally simple and has been applied previously to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales. This article demonstrates the ability of the technique to scale up to large (global) satellite derived land cover maps and reports its application to the GlobCover 2009 data product. The results show that, in general, the GlobCover data possesses only small biases, with the largest belonging to non–vegetated surfaces. In vegetated surfaces, the most prominent area of uncertainty is Southern Africa, which represents a complex heterogeneous landscape. It is also clear from this study that greater resources need to be devoted to the construction of comprehensive confusion matrices.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fluctuating abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a calving ground off coastal Brazil

The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population that uses Abrolhos Bank, off the east coast of Brazil as a breeding ground is increasing. To describe temporal changes in the relative abundance of humpback whales around Abrolhos, seven years (1998-2004) of whale count data were collected during July through to November. During one-hour-scans, observers determined group size within 9.3 km (5 n.m.) of a land-based observing station. A total Of 930 scans, comprising 7996 sightings of adults and 2044 calves were analysed using generalized linear models that included variables for time of day, day of the season, years and two-way interactions as possible predictors. The pattern observed was the gradual build-up and decline in whale counts within seasons. Patterns and peaks of adult and calf counts varied among years. Although fluctuation was observed, there was generally an increasing trend in adult counts among years. Calf counts increased only in 2004. These fluctuations may have been caused by some environmental conditions in humpback whales` summering grounds and also by changes in spatial-temporal concentrations in Abrolhos Bank. The general pattern observed within the study area mirrored what was observed in the whole Abrolhos Bank. Knowledge of the consistency with which humpback whales use this important nursing area should prove beneficial for designing future monitoring programmes especially related to whale watching activities around Abrolhos Archipelago.

A model of rural conflict : violence and land reform policy in Brazil

In the past ten years the struggle for land in Brazil has taken the shape of invasions of private land by welI organized groups of land less squatters. It is argued in this paper that these invasions and the resulting contlicts are a direct response to the land reform program which has been adopted by the govemment since 1985. which is based on the expropriation of farms and the creation of settlement projects. The set of formal and informal institutions which compromise the land reform program are used as the background for a game-theory model of rural contlicts. T estable implications are derived trom this model with particular emphasis on the etfect of policy variables on violence. These are then tested with panel data at state levei from 1988 to 1995. - It is shown that govemment policy which has the intent of reducing the amount of violence has the opposite etfect of leading to more incentives for contlicts.

A territorial perspective: towards the consolidation of human settlements in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Property rights and the rural land market in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Regularização fundiária sustentável como instrumento para o direito à cidade: por uma nova ética urbana à luz de Ronald Dworkin

O presente trabalho realiza a análise dos processos de urbanização, cuja característica marcante é a segregação econômica, social e espacial da população de baixa renda, perceptível pelo fenômeno de periferização urbana vivenciado por este segmento social. Sem vias de acesso formal à terra urbana, a população de baixa renda residente em centros urbanos promove a ocupação irregular de áreas desprovidas ou carentes de infraestrutura e serviços urbanos, as quais, em geral, não são requisitadas pelo mercado imobiliário formal. A forma de apropriação desigual dos espaços territoriais é fruto do modo de apropriação do modo capitalista. Nesse contexto de desigualdade, exclusão, segregação se insere a questão da ocupação irregular nas margens de cursos d’água situadas no meio urbano, áreas estas especialmente protegidas pela legislação ambiental, tema que nos remete ao foco principal da dissertação: o estudo da possibilidade de implementação de ações de regularização fundiária sustentável em ocupações de interesse social, consolidadas em áreas urbanas situadas às margens de cursos d’água, analisada como instrumento de combate ao processo de segregação socioespacial vivenciado pela população de baixa renda em decorrência do processo de produção capitalista dos espaços urbanos. Para tanto, a partir da análise de casos concretos utiliza-se as ações de regularização como instrumento para a consecução do direito às cidades sustentáveis, albergado no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro na Lei nº10.257/2001, afirmando-o como um direito fundamental, a partir da teoria do jusfilósofo Ronald Dworkin. A problemática que a dissertação revela reside no aparente conflito ante a necessidade de atendimento dos direitos fundamentais das populações residentes destas ocupações e o dever de manutenção do meio ambiente ecologicamente equilibrado, cuja solução é pautada pelo sopesamento de princípios, e valores neles incutidos, com fundamento no conceito de direito como integridade, também desenvolvido por Ronald Dworkin.

Direito à soberania alimentar e ao patrimônio cultural: perspectivas para uma alimentação identitária

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

The Land Grant University Movement and the Future of IANR UAAD

Good afternoon. It is a real pleasure for me to be here with you today, and I thank you for inviting me. I also, as I begin my remarks today, want to thank each of you for the work you do, everyday, to help make this a better university. Please know that work is both valued and appreciated. I'd like to talk with you about a couple of topics today, and after that I'm going to open the floor for questions and comments. I look forward to hearing what you have to say, too. The first topic I'm going to talk about in the next few minutes is our land grant mission. People who know me at all can tell you I am passionate about land grants because I believe being part of a land grant university and helping to advance the land grant mission is one of the great privileges and responsibilities of our times.

A new information fusion method for land-use classification using high resolution satellite imagery

Satellite image classification involves designing and developing efficient image classifiers. With satellite image data and image analysis methods multiplying rapidly, selecting the right mix of data sources and data analysis approaches has become critical to the generation of quality land-use maps. In this study, a new postprocessing information fusion algorithm for the extraction and representation of land-use information based on high-resolution satellite imagery is presented. This approach can produce land-use maps with sharp interregional boundaries and homogeneous regions. The proposed approach is conducted in five steps. First, a GIS layer - ATKIS data - was used to generate two coarse homogeneous regions, i.e. urban and rural areas. Second, a thematic (class) map was generated by use of a hybrid spectral classifier combining Gaussian Maximum Likelihood algorithm (GML) and ISODATA classifier. Third, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm was performed on the thematic map, resulting in a smoothed thematic map. Fourth, edge detection and edge thinning techniques were used to generate a contour map with pixel-width interclass boundaries. Fifth, the contour map was superimposed on the thematic map by use of a region-growing algorithm with the contour map and the smoothed thematic map as two constraints. For the operation of the proposed method, a software package is developed using programming language C. This software package comprises the GML algorithm, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm, TBL edge detector, an edge thresholding algorithm, a fast parallel thinning algorithm, and a region-growing information fusion algorithm. The county of Landau of the State Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany was selected as a test site. The high-resolution IRS-1C imagery was used as the principal input data.

Cosmologies and Regionalisms from "Above' and "Below' in the Post-Cold War Americas: the Relevance of Karl Polanyi for the 21st Century

Drawing on a Polanyian analysis of the land question, this article aims to analyse both Western and Indigenous cosmologies of Abya Yalathe name that indigenous peoples give to the American continentto understand the relationship between human beings and land and nature. These cosmologies are at the heart of the way in which two distinct societies construct their regional space, one from above', the other from below', and they are therefore key to understanding today's climate change problematique. Following this nexus it is argued that, since the end of the Cold War, a new regional double-movement', unleashed by the quest for land and natural resources has been in the making. This is a superstructural or legal battle between Western transnational regime-making and a law that originated at the centre of the Earth'. The article explains both regionalisms and the dialectical interaction between them and demonstrates that Karl Polanyi's legacy remains relevant for the 21st century.

Use of Land Surface Temperature to Estimate Surface Energy Fluxes: Contributions of Wilfried Brutsaert and Collaborators

Land surface temperature (LST) plays a key role in governing the land surface energy budget, and measurements or estimates of LST are an integral part of many land surface models and methods to estimate land surface sensible heat (H) and latent heat fluxes. In particular, the LST anchors the potential temperature profile in Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, from which H can be derived. Brutsaert has made important contributions to our understanding the nature of surface temperature measurements as well as the practical but theoretically sound use of LST in this framework. His work has coincided with the wide-spread availability of remotely sensed LST measurements. Use of remotely sensed LST estimates inevitably involves complicating factors, such as: varying spatial and temporal scales in measurements, theory, and models; spatial variability of LST and H; the relationship between measurements of LST and the temperature felt by the atmosphere; and the need to correct satellite-based radiometric LST measurements for the radiative effects of the atmosphere. This paper reviews the progress made in research in these areas by tracing and commenting on Brutsaert's contributions.

Effects of Landscape Segregation on Livelihood Vulnerability: Moving From Extensive Shifting Cultivation to Rotational Agriculture and Natural Forests in Northern Laos

This study investigates four decades of socio-economic and environmental change in a shifting cultivation landscape in the northern uplands of Laos. Historical changes in land cover and land use were analyzed using a chronological series of remote sensing data. Impacts of landscape change on local livelihoods were investigated in seven villages through interviews with various stakeholders. The study reveals that the complex mosaics of agriculture and forest patches observed in the study area have long constituted key assets for the resilience of local livelihood systems in the face of environmental and socio-economic risks. However, over the past 20 years, a process of segregating agricultural and forest spaces has increased the vulnerability of local land users. This process is a direct outcome of policies aimed at increasing national forest cover, eradicating shifting cultivation and fostering the emergence of more intensive and commercial agricultural practices. We argue that agriculture-forest segregation should be buffered in such a way that a diversity of livelihood opportunities and economic development pathways can be maintained.