A 49 year hindcast of surface winds over the Iberian Peninsula

The use of hindcast climatic data is quite extended for multiple applications. However, this approach needs the support of a validation process to allow its drawbacks and, therefore, confidence levels to be assessed. In this work, the strategy relies on an hourly wind database resulting from a dynamical downscaling experiment, with a spatial resolution of 10 km, covering the Iberian Peninsula (IP), driven by the ERA40 reanalysis (1959–2001) extended by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) analysis (2002–2007) and comprising two main steps. Initially, the skill of the simulation is evaluated comparing the quality-tested observational database (Lorente-Plazas et al., 2014) at local and regional scales. The results show that the model is able to portray the main features of the wind over the IP: annual cycles, wind roses, spatial and temporal variability, as well as the response to different circulation types. In addition, there is a significant added value of the simulation with respect to driving conditions, especially in regions with a complex orography. However, some problems are evident, the major drawback being the systematic overestimation of the wind speed, which is mainly attributed to a missrepresentation of frictional forces. The model skill is also lower along the Mediterranean coast and for the Pyrenees. In a second phase, the high spatio-temporal resolution of the pseudo-real wind database is used to explore the limitations of the observational database. It is shown that missing values do not affect the characterisation of the wind climate over the IP, while the length of the observational period (6 years) is sufficient for most regions, with only a few exceptions. The spatial distribution of the observational sampling schemes should be enhanced to improve the correct assessment of all IP wind regimes, particularly in some mountainous areas.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland: A nationwide study.

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. It has been hypothesized that infections may be involved and that mini-epidemics thereof could result in space-time clustering of incident cases. Most previous studies support spatio-temporal clustering for leukaemia, while results for other diagnostic groups remain mixed. Few studies have corrected for uneven regional population shifts which can lead to spurious detection of clustering. We examined whether there is space-time clustering of childhood cancers in Switzerland identifying cases diagnosed at age <16 years between 1985 and 2010 from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. Knox tests were performed on geocoded residence at birth and diagnosis separately for leukaemia, acute lymphoid leukaemia (ALL), lymphomas, tumours of the central nervous system, neuroblastomas and soft tissue sarcomas. We used Baker's Max statistic to correct for multiple testing and randomly sampled time-, sex- and age-matched controls from the resident population to correct for uneven regional population shifts. We observed space-time clustering of childhood leukaemia at birth (Baker's Max p = 0.045) but not at diagnosis (p = 0.98). Clustering was strongest for a spatial lag of <1 km and a temporal lag of <2 years (Observed/expected close pairs: 124/98; p Knox test = 0.003). A similar clustering pattern was observed for ALL though overall evidence was weaker (Baker's Max p = 0.13). Little evidence of clustering was found for other diagnostic groups (p > 0.2). Our study suggests that childhood leukaemia tends to cluster in space-time due to an etiologic factor present in early life.

Global models of planet formation and evolution

Despite the strong increase in observational data on extrasolar planets, the processes that led to the formation of these planets are still not well understood. However, thanks to the high number of extrasolar planets that have been discovered, it is now possible to look at the planets as a population that puts statistical constraints on theoretical formation models. A method that uses these constraints is planetary population synthesis where synthetic planetary populations are generated and compared to the actual population. The key element of the population synthesis method is a global model of planet formation and evolution. These models directly predict observable planetary properties based on properties of the natal protoplanetary disc, linking two important classes of astrophysical objects. To do so, global models build on the simplified results of many specialized models that address one specific physical mechanism. We thoroughly review the physics of the sub-models included in global formation models. The sub-models can be classified as models describing the protoplanetary disc (of gas and solids), those that describe one (proto)planet (its solid core, gaseous envelope and atmosphere), and finally those that describe the interactions (orbital migration and N-body interaction). We compare the approaches taken in different global models, discuss the links between specialized and global models, and identify physical processes that require improved descriptions in future work. We then shortly address important results of planetary population synthesis like the planetary mass function or the mass-radius relationship. With these statistical results, the global effects of physical mechanisms occurring during planet formation and evolution become apparent, and specialized models describing them can be put to the observational test. Owing to their nature as meta models, global models depend on the results of specialized models, and therefore on the development of the field of planet formation theory as a whole. Because there are important uncertainties in this theory, it is likely that the global models will in future undergo significant modifications. Despite these limitations, global models can already now yield many testable predictions. With future global models addressing the geophysical characteristics of the synthetic planets, it should eventually become possible to make predictions about the habitability of planets based on their formation and evolution.

Factors associated with needle sharing among Black male injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Background. Injection drug users (IDUs) are at increased risk for HIV transmission due to unique risk behaviors, such as sharing needles. In Houston, IDUs account for 18% of all HIV/AIDS cases among Black males. ^ Objectives. This analysis compared demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial characteristics of needle sharing and non-sharing IDUs in a population of Black males in Harris County, Texas. ^ Methods. Data used for this analysis were from the second IDU cycle of the National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System. This dataset included a sample of 288 Black male IDUs. Univariate and multivariate statistical analysis were performed to determine statistically significant associations of needle sharing in this population and to create a functional model to inform local HIV prevention programs. ^ Results. Half of the participants in this analysis shared needles in the past 12 months. Compared to non-sharers, sharers were more likely to be homeless (OR=3.70, p<0.01) or arrested in the past year (OR=2.31, p<0.01), inject cocaine (OR=2.07, p<0.01), report male-to-male sex in the past year (OR=6.97, p<0.01), and to exchange sex for money or drugs. Sharers were less likely than non-sharers to graduate high school (OR=0.36, p<0.01), earn $5,000 or more a year (OR=1.15, p=0.05), get needles from a medical source (OR=0.59, p=0.03), and ever test for HIV (OR=0.17, p<0.01). Sharers were more likely to report depressive symptoms (OR=3.49, p<0.01), lower scores on the family support scale (mean difference 0.41, p=0.01) and decision-making confidence scale (mean difference 0.38, p<0.01), and greater risk-taking (mean difference -0.49, p<0.01) than non-sharers. In a multivariable logistic regression, sharers were less likely to have graduated high school (OR=0.33, p<0.01) and have been tested for HIV (OR=0.12, p<0.01) and were more likely to have been arrested in the past year (OR=2.3, p<0.01), get needles from a street source (OR=3.87, p<0.01), report male-to-male sex (OR=7.01, p<0.01), and have depressive symptoms (OR=2.36, p=0.02) and increased risk-taking (OR=1.78, p=0.01). ^ Conclusions. IDUs that shared needles are different from those that did not, reporting lower socioeconomic status, increased sexual and risk behaviors, increased depressive symptoms and increased risk-taking. These findings suggest that intervention programs that also address these demographic, behavioral, and psychosocial factors may be more successful in decreasing needle sharing among this population.^

PREPAID MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES: A NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

The purpose of this 1982 national survey of all operational prepaid health plans, or PHPs (including health maintenance organizations), was to provide information on the current coverage of PHP mental health and substance abuse services, benefits and service provision, general and mental health organization characteristics, mental health service costs, and physical and mental health service utilization.^ Two survey instruments were designed, pretested and distributed to all operational PHPs throughout the United States. A total of 237 PHPs were surveyed, of which 205 (86.50 percent) completed and returned both questionnaires.^ One result of the rapid growth in the PHP field over the past ten years has been the expansion in both the number of PHPs as well as the organizational characteristics of these PHPs. However, little attention in the research literature has been given to the application of empirical results to the PHP arrangements. This project has attempted to contribute to current knowledge regarding prepaid mental health services from a national perspective, and explore, on a preliminary descriptive basis, the variety of potential service delivery arrangements for physical and mental health services (total services) and for mental health services.^ The study emphasized that PHPs must continue to monitor the costs and utilization of mental health services, particularly in light of the apparent elimination of data collection and statistical summary responsibilities within the federal government regarding PHP activities as well as the proposed legislation to eliminate mandated mental health and substance abuse services from basic health plan benefits for federally qualified PHPs. ^

A systematic review of clostridium difficile infection in patients with iatrogenic immunesuppression

Background: Incidence of C. difficile infection (CDI) has increased dramatically in the past decade and is the most frequent cause of nosocomial infectious diarrhea. The outcome of infection may range from mild diarrhea to life-threatening pseudomembranous colitis depending on the immunological response of the host, which is highly compromised in this special population that includes bone marrow transplant (BMT), solid organ transplant (SOT) and cancer patients on cytotoxic chemotherapy. ^ Objectives: We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the incidence rates of CDI and the time to onset of infection in patients with iatrogenic immune suppression. ^ Methods: Original studies were identified through an extensive search of electronic databases including PubMed, Ovid Medline (R), RefWorks and Biological Abstracts and their references. The overall incidence rate of CDI in the immune suppressed population was calculated using random effects model and their 95% confidence interval was derived. Differences in the incidence of CDI and time to onset of infection were calculated between the groups and within the groups. Publication bias was assessed using a funnel plot. Results: Twenty nine published articles involving 7,424 patients met the eligibility requirements. The overall incidence of CDI in the immune suppressed population is 11.1% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 9.2–13.4%). The incidence of CDI was higher in SOT patients (14.2%, 95% CI: 6.8–21.5%); (p-value-0.022) and in cancer patients on cytotoxic chemotherapy (11.4%, 95% CI: 8.4–15.4%); (p = 0.042) than in BMT patients (10.5%, 95% CI: 7.9–13.1%). In a subgroup analysis of BMT population, the incidence of CDI is significantly higher in patients who received allogeneic BMT (15.1%, 95% CI: 11.2–20.0%; p value <0.0001). Similarly, in the SOT population, the incidence of CDI was higher in patients who underwent liver transplantation (11.0%, 95% CI: 5.6–20.3%); (p= 0.0672). The median time to onset of infection was shorter in BMT patients (p=0.0025). ^ Conclusions: It is evident from the combined analysis of these 29 published studies that the incidence of CDI in the immune suppressed population is higher. However, early diagnosis and treatment of CDI will help reduce the morbidity and mortality due to CDI in this special population.^

A Case Study of an Agency's Three Family Preservation Contracts

This article presents a case study of a nonprofit child welfare agency that delivered family preservation services under three different purchase-of-service (POS) contracts. The research specifically focuses on how certain POS contract provisions and reimbursement rates influence the delivery of family preservation services. The three contacts examined differed on criteria, such as reimbursement mechanism, service volume, definition of clientele, and reimbursement rate. The study found that as reimbursement rates decline and as administrative costs increase, the service provider struggled with cash flow, staffing, fundraising, and service provision, among other things. It is concluded that contract-related resources, policies, and procedures impact provider agencies in multiple, significant ways that are critical to the provision of services and the accomplishment of positive client outcomes.

Women’s experiences with the use of medical abortion in a legally restricted context: the case of Argentina

This article presents the findings of a qualitative study exploring the experiences of women living in Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area, Argentina, with the use of misoprostol for inducing an abortion. We asked women about the range of decisions they had to make, their emotions, the physical experience, strategies they needed to use, including seeking health care advice and in dealing with a clandestine medical abortion, and their overall evaluation of the experience. An in-depth interview schedule was used. The women had either used misoprostol and sought counselling or care at a public hospital (n=24) or had used misoprostol based on the advice of a local hotline, information from the internet or from other women (n=21). Four stages in the women’s experiences were identified: how the decision to terminate the pregnancy was taken, how the medication was obtained, how the tablets were used, and reflections on the outcome whether or not they sought medical advice. Safety and privacy were key in deciding to use medical abortion. Access to the medication was the main obstacle, requiring a prescription or a friendly drugstore. Correct information about the number of pills to use and dosage intervals was the least easy to obtain and caused concerns. The possibility of choosing a time of privacy and having the company of a close one was highlighted as a unique advantage of medical abortion. Efforts to improve abortion law, policy and service provision in Argentina in order to ensure the best possible conditions for use of medical abortion by women should be redoubled.

Stable carbon isotope record of benthic foraminifera across the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum in the New Jersey Coastal Plain

In the New Jersey Coastal Plain, a silty to clayey sedimentary unit (the Marlboro Formation) represents deposition during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). This interval is remarkably different from the glauconitic sands and silts of the underlying Paleocene Vincentown and overlying Eocene Manasquan Formation. We integrate new and published stable isotope, biostratigraphic, lithostratigraphic and ecostratigraphic records, constructing a detailed time frame for the PETM along a depth gradient at core sites Clayton, Wilson Lake, Ancora and Bass River (updip to downdip). The onset of the PETM, marked by the base of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE), is within the gradual transition from glauconitic silty sands to silty clay, and represented fully at the updip sites (Wilson Lake and Clayton). The CIE "core" interval is expanded at the updip sites, but truncated. The CIE "core" is complete at the Bass River and Ancora sites, where the early part of the recovery is present (most complete at Ancora). The extent to which the PETM is expressed in the sediments is highly variable between sites, with a significant unconformity at the base of the overlying lower Eocene sediments. Our regional correlation framework provides an improved age model, allowing better understanding of the progression of environmental changes during the PETM. High-resolution benthic foraminiferal data document the change from a sediment-starved shelf setting to a tropical, river-dominated mud-belt system during the PETM, probably due to intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The excellent preservation of foraminifera during the PETM and the lack of severe benthic extinction suggest there was no extreme ocean acidification in shelf settings.

Classified Adélie penguin colonies from Landsat data

Breeding distribution of the Adelie penguin, Pygoscelis adeliae, was surveyed with Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data along the coastline of Antarctica, an area covering approximately 330° of longitude. An algorithm was designed to minimize the radiometric contribution from exogenous sources and to retrieve Adelie penguin colony location and spatial extent from the ETM+ data. In all, 9143 individual pixels were classified as belonging to an Adelie penguin colony class out of the entire dataset of 195 ETM+ scenes, where the dimension of each pixel is 30 m by 30 m, and each scene is approximately 180 km by 180 km. Pixel clustering identified a total of 187 individual Adelie penguin colonies, ranging in size from a single pixel (900 m**2) to a maximum of 875 pixels (0.788 km**2). Colony retrievals have a very low error of commission, on the order of 1 percent or less, and the error of omission was estimated to be 2.9 percent by population based on comparisons with direct observations from surveys across east Antarctica. Thus, the Landsat retrievals can successfully locate Adelie penguin colonies that account for ~97 percent of a regional population. Geographic coordinates and the spatial extent of each colony retrieved from the Landsat data are available publically. Regional analysis found several areas where the Landsat retrievals suggest populations that are significantly larger than published estimates. Six Adelie penguin colonies were found that are believed to be unreported in the literature.

Mejora de la competitividad del sistema portuario español mediante la optimización del servicio de manipulación de mercancías

Los servicios portuarios son responsables de la mayor parte del coste que se produce en el paso de la mercancía por un puerto, particularmente el servicio de manipulación de mercancías. La prestación de éstos de forma fiable y eficiente resulta clave en un sector en el que existe una gran opacidad. Con el estudio realizado se dota a la Administración responsable, la Autoridad Portuaria, de una herramienta que le ayude a objetivar la toma de decisiones tanto a la hora de otorgar las preceptivas licencias como durante el periodo de prestación del servicio. Además se proponen una serie de medidas cuya aplicación mejoraría las condiciones de prestación del servicio así como una reducción de costes al paso de la mercancía por el puerto. Port services are responsible for most of the cost for the passing of goods through the port, especially the cargo handling service. Reliability and efficiency in the provision of them are key in a sector where there is a high opacity. With this study, we provide the responsible Administration, the Port Authority, with a tool that will help to objectify the decision making process, both at the time of granting the required licenses and during the period of the service provision. Also, proposes a number of measures whose implementation would improve the conditions of the service delivery and will reduce the total cost of transporting goods through the port.

Aplicación de modelos autorregresivos a la simulación de las características físicas de envases de vidrio

Se presenta en este artículo la simulación de las características de envases de vidrio, mediante modelos auto regresivos (AR), siguiendo el enfoque Box-Jenkins. El artículo se presenta en dos partes: en la primera, se demuestra la adecuación de un modelo AR (2), para la simulación de los espesores a partir de las características estadísticas determinadas sobre cortes longitudinales de envases reales. En la segunda parte, se presenta la forma práctica que se ha desarrollado para la simulación de una muestra de veinte recipientes.

Propuesta de una metodología para provisión de servicios de outsourcing de TI

El mercado de outsourcing ha estado creciendo en los últimos años y se prevé que lo siga haciendo en los próximos, pero este crecimiento ha estado limitado por el fracaso de muchos proyectos que, en algunos casos, han llevado a las organizaciones a asumir de nuevo esos servicios (insourcing). Estos fracasos se han debido en gran parte a los problemas con los proveedores: falta de experiencia, de capacidades para asumir los proyectos, dificultad en la comunicación,… A diferencia de lo que ocurre en otras disciplinas, no existe una metodología que ayude, tanto a los clientes como a los proveedores de servicios de outsourcing de TI, a gobernar y gestionar sus proyectos y conseguir los resultados buscados. En los últimos años han aparecido, al mismo tiempo que la expansión del outsourcing, algunos modelos y marcos de buenas prácticas para la gestión de los proyectos de outsourcing, pero generalmente sólo cubren algunos aspectos de la gestión. No se los puede considerar metodologías, porque no definen roles, responsabilidades ni entregables. Por lo general, son el resultado de la experiencia en la gestión de otros tipos de proyectos. Hay que considerar también que, excepto eSCM-SP, que es un modelo de buenas prácticas para mejorar la capacidad en la provisión de servicios, están todos orientados al cliente. El objetivo de esta tesis es, por un lado, demostrar la necesidad de contar con una metodología que guíe a los proveedores durante todo el ciclo de vida un proyecto de outsourcing y, por otro, proponer una metodología que contemple desde la fase inicial de la búsqueda de oportunidades de negocio, evaluación de las propuestas RFP, la decisión de hacer una oferta o no para la prestación de servicios, la participación en la due diligence, la firma del contrato, la transición y la entrega de servicios, hasta la finalización del contrato. La metodología se ha organizado en base a un ciclo de vida del outsourcing de cinco etapas, definiendo para cada una de ellas los roles que participan y las responsabilidades que deberán asumir, las actividades a realizar y los entregables que se deberán generar, y que servirán de elementos de control tanto para la gestión del proyecto como para la provisión del servicio. La validación de la metodología se ha realizado aplicándola en proyectos de provisión de servicios de TI de una mediana empresa española y comparando los resultados obtenidos con los conseguidos en proyectos anteriores. ABSTRACT The outsourcing market has been growing in recent years and it is expected to keep doing so in the coming years, but this growth has been limited by the failure of many projects that, in some cases, has led organizations to take back those services (insourcing). These failures have been due to a major degree to problems with providers: lack of experience and capacity to take on the projects, and difficulties of communication. Unlike what happens in other disciplines, there is no methodology for helping both customers and providers of outsourcing services. In recent years, some good practice frameworks have also appeared at the same time as the expansion of outsourcing. They are not methodologies because they have not defined any roles, responsibilities and deliverables. These frameworks aim to help organizations to be successful at managing and governing outsourcing projects. They are usually the result of their experience in managing other kinds of projects. In consequence, it is not appropriate to name them "methodologies" for managing outsourcing projects and much less "standards". It is also important to note that all existing good practice frameworks, except eSCM-SP, are client-oriented. The aim of this thesis is to state the need to propose a methodology that guides providers throughout the whole outsourcing life cycle and facilitates the provision of quality services and their management, and the proposal of a methodology in which the stages, activities, deliverables, roles and responsibilities are clearly defined. The proposed methodology cover all the stages of the outsourcing life cycle, from the early stage of searching for business opportunities, evaluation of the RFP proposals, the decision to bid or not to bid for the service provision, participation in the due diligence if necessary, the signing of the contract, the transition and delivery of service to the termination of the contract. For each activity, roles, responsibilities and deliverables have been defined. The validation of the methodology has been done by applying it in the provision of some outsourcing projects carried out by a Spanish IT medium company and comparing the results with those obtained in previous projects.

A wind tunnel two-dimensional parametric investigation of biplane configurations

This paper presents an experimental and systematic investigation about how geometric parameters on a biplane configuration have an influence on aerodynamic parameters. This experimental investigation has been developed in a two-dimensional approach. Theoretical studies about biplanes configurations have been developed in the past, but there is not enough information about experimental wind tunnel data at low Reynolds number. This two-dimensional study is a first step to further tridimensional investigations about the box wing configuration. The main objective of the study is to find the relationships between the geometrical parameters which present the best aerodynamic behavior: the highest lift, the lowest drag and the lowest slope of the pitching moment. A tridimensional wing-box model will be designed following the pattern of the two dimensional study conclusions. It will respond to the geometrical relationships that have been considered to show the better aerodynamic behavior. This box-wing model will be studied in the aim of comparing the advantages and disadvantages between this biplane configuration and the plane configuration, looking for implementing the box-wing in the UAV?s field. Although the box wing configuration has been used in a small number of existing UAV, prestigious researchers have found it as a field of high aerodynamic and structural potential.

Transit Use by Young People in Times of Financial Austerity: A Cause of Equity Concern?

This study investigates the effect of price and travel time fairness and spatial equity in transit provision on the perceived transit service quality, willingness to pay, and habitual frequency of use. Based on the theory of planned behavior, we developed a web-based questionnaire for revealed preferences data collection. The survey was administered among young people in Copenhagen and Lisbon to explore the transit perceptions and use under different economic and transit provision conditions. The survey yielded 499 questionnaires, analyzed by means of structural equation models. Results show that higher perceived fairness relates positively to higher perceived quality of transit service and higher perceived ease of paying for transit use. Higher perceived spatial equity in service provision is associated with higher perceived service quality. Higher perceived service quality relates to higher perceived ease of payment, which links to higher frequency of transit use.