Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Todos somos mulheres : a estratégia como razão das vítimas e dos vencidos

Com o presente artigo pretende-se interrogar a estratégia como ética do conflito, razão das vítimas e dos vencidos, do lado do feminino, mais propriamente apresentando a condição de mulher como a medida por excelência da alteridade radical ferida de morte pela violência da guerra. Não se trata, de modo nenhum, de tomar a violência de género como paradigma da guerra, antes de trazer à luz através da condição subjugada, silenciada, do ser mulher uma parcela essencial da alteridade, com vista a que o zelo de acolhimento do outro pela estratégia no seio da hostilidade possa efetivamente atingir os seus fins: ir desarmando por dentro, como se de uma quinta-coluna se tratasse, a conflitualidade hostil, pondo a paz definitiva ao alcance da humanidade. A estratégia como propedêutica à chegada do Messias, tomando a mulher, sem se esgotar nela, como figura de uma kenosis radical e prefiguração do servo sofredor resgatado. Para alcançar os objetivos propostos, foi necessário indagar previamente sobre o sentido da estratégia, incluindo uma leitura de Clausewitz em instância ética.

Teor de clorofila e produtividade do trigo em razão da adubação foliar com boro na presença de aminoácidos.

O trigo é uma cultura de ciclo anual cultivada no inverno. Nas culturas de arroz, trigo, aveia e milho, foram evidenciados boas correlações entre a leitura SPAD e a produtividade de grãos. O trabalho teve como objetivo estudar o efeito da adubação foliar com boro (B) na presença de aminoácidos (AAs) no teor de clorofila e produtividade de grãos do trigo, assim como na sua correlação. O experimento foi realizado na Embrapa Soja (Londrina - PR), no ano de 2014. O solo da área experimental é classificado como Latossolo Vermelho distroférrico. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições e seis tratamentos com doses de ácido bórico na presença de aminoácidos, exceto a testemunha. As doses estudadas foram: T1- 0 kg ha-1 de H3BO3 sem aminoácidos (Testemunha); T2- 0 kg ha-1 de H3BO3; T3- 1 kg ha-1 de H3BO3; T4- 2 kg ha-1 de H3BO3; T5- 4 kg ha-1 de H3BO3; T6- 8 kg ha-1 de H3BO3. O plantio da cultivar BRS Pardela foi realizado com semeadora com sistema de plantio direto, com espaçamento entre linha de 50 cm e a densidade de semeadura utilizada foi ajustada para atingir 250.000 plantas ha-1. A adubação de semeadura foi realizada com 40 kg ha-1 de N (ureia), 60 kg ha-1 de P2O5 (superfosfato triplo) + 40 kg ha-1 K2O (KCl) + 2,0 kg ha-1 de Cu (sulfato de cobre 24,5%), 2,0 kg ha-1 de Mn (sulfato de manganês 30%) e 2,0 kg ha-1 de Zn (sulfato de zinco 21%). A adubação em cobertura foi realizada aos 40 dias após o plantio com 20 kg ha-1 K2O (KCl). A adubação foliar com boro e AAs (2 L ha-1) foi realizada na fase final de alongamento e início de pré-espigamento. Foi utilizado o ácido bórico (17%B) e os aminoácidos na concentração (1/200, v/v) com 6,8% de glicina, 4,4% de prolina, 3,3% de ácido glutâmico, 2,7% de alanina, 1,9% de arginina, 1,7% de ácido aspártico, 1,3% de lisina, 1,3% de histidina e 1,0% de leucina. As práticas de proteção de plantas via controle químico de pragas, doenças e plantas daninhas foram realizadas conforme as indicações técnicas para a cultura de trigo a fim de não interferirem nos resultados obtidos. Avaliou-se a produtividade de grãos de trigo e o teor de clorofila, determinado indiretamente no terço médio da folha bandeira de cinco plantas por parcela, no florescimento, por meio de leituras SPAD com auxílio de um clorofilômetro digital (Minolta 502). Os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância pelo teste F. A comparação de médias pelo teste de Tukey e as correlações foram feitas em nível de 5% de significância. Não houve efeito significativo dos tratamentos no teor de clorofila (SPAD) e na produtividade de grãos de trigo. A produtividade média de grãos foi de 4.266 kg ha-1 e 40 SPAD. Não houve correlação entre a leitura SPAD e a produtividade de grãos. Conclui-se que a adubação foliar com boro na presença de aminoácidos não modificou o teor de clorofila e a produtividade de grãos do trigo, bem como não houve correlação entre os fatores.

Estudo sobre a migração transuterina e a razão sexual de conceptos em bovinos da raça Nelore (Bos taurus indicus)

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, 2016.

At odds with the group: Changes in lateralization and escape performance reveal conformity and conflict in fish schools

Many vertebrates are known to show behavioural lateralization, whereby they differentially use one side of their body or either of their bilateral organs or limbs. Behavioural lateralization often manifests in a turning bias in fishes, with some individuals showing a left bias and others a right bias. Such biases could be the source of considerable conflict in fish schools given that there may be considerable social pressure to conform to the group to maintain effective group evasion. Here, we show that predation pressure is a major determinant of the degree of lateralization, both in a relative and absolute sense, in yellow-and-blueback fusiliers (Caesio teres), a schooling fish common on coral reefs. Wild-caught fish showed a bias for right turning. When predation pressure was experimentally elevated or relaxed, the strength of lateralization changed. Higher predation pressure resulted in an increase in the strength of lateralization. Individuals that exhibited the same turning bias as the majority of individuals in their group had improved escape performance compared with individuals that were at odds with the group. Moreover, individuals that were right-biased had improved escape performance, compared with left-biased ones. Plasticity in lateralization might be an important evolutionary consequence of the way gregarious species respond to predators owing to the probable costs associated with this behaviour.

The EU landing obligation and European small-scale fisheries: What are the odds for success?

A landing obligation was formally implemented in the European Union (EU) for the first time, as part of the recent reform of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). Given the reasonable success of the landing obligation in some countries such as the Faroe Islands, Iceland and Norway, this policy is seen as a viable approach to tackle the long-recognized discarding problem in EU waters. However, there has been some debate on whether there is sufficient evidence to support the feasibility of such a measure in the EU-CFP. The EU landing obligation will implicitly include all small-scale fisheries (SSF) provided the species captured are subject to catch limits or minimum sizes (in the case of the Mediterranean). SSF were included irrespective of the fact that the discarding problem in the EU has been historically associated with medium- to large-scale fleets (in particular largely mixed species trawl fisheries). Additionally, past experiences with a discard ban policy are still limited to specific countries and/or specific fisheries. This paper examined the appropriateness and feasibility of the recently implemented EU landing obligation in SSF. The effects in the long-term are unpredictable, but available evidence suggests that in the short to medium-term a landing obligation is likely to bring more negative social, economic and ecological impacts than benefits. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Há bastante tempo que não te escrevo, mas não sei a razão. Notas acerca acerca da escrita como envio em Vergílio Ferreira e Jacques Derrida

Caracterizado muitas vezes e talvez algo injustamente como um escritor que publicou sobretudo romances de ideias, expressão que não deixa de ser equívoca, é indiscutível que a obra de Vergílio Ferreira, nas suas múltiplas dimensões, transita frequentemente entre os territórios classicamente definidos como literatura e filosofia. Por isso, é habitual associar-se alguns dos seus romances, nomeadamente aquele que tem por cenário a cidade de Évora (Aparição, 1959), ao existencialismo sartriano. Essa colagem merece ainda assim ser questionada. Até porque, noutros passos da sua obra, Vergílio discute longa e pertinentemente algumas teses do autor de L’Être et le Néant (cf., por exemplo, as páginas 128-138, escritas precisamente em Évora, do Diário Inédito, 2010). Menos referida é, contudo, a relação que os escritos de Vergílio têm com outro filósofo francês, Jacques Derrida. Essa relação não é, com certeza, de circunstância. Aliás, deve-se a Vergílio aquela que é, seguramente, uma das primeiras tentativas de traduzir para a língua portuguesa a famosa expressão cunhada por Derrida: différance (cf. Espaço do Invisível II, 1976, pp. 82-83). A presente comunicação visa pôr em diálogo dois livros de Vergílio Ferreira que estão, como se sabe, intimamente vinculados entre si – Para Sempre (1983) e a Cartas para Sandra (1996) – com a matriz teórica derridiana, designadamente com as suas concepções de escrita, de destinação e até de destinerrância. Fá-lo-á sobretudo a partir de La Carte Postale – de Socrate à Freud et au-delà (1980), obra singular no próprio trajecto do filósofo francês em que se mesclam o diário e a ficção, a teoria e o género epistolar.

"Carlos Alberto Braga: os sinais do segredo", in Razão Poética (poesia 1987-2016), Porto, Cosmorama, 2016.

Estuda-se a poesia de Carlos Braga do ponto de vista duma tradição contemporânea que remonta ao surrealismo.

Modelação do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo

Estudos epidemiológicos são estudos estatísticos onde se procura relacionar ocorrências de eventos de saúde com uma ou várias causas específicas. A importância que os modelos epidemiológicos assumem hoje no estudo de doenças de foro oncológico, em particular no estabelecimento das suas etiologias, é incontornável. Segundo Ogden, J. (1999) o cancro é "um crescimento incontrolável de células anormais que produzem tumores chamados neoplasias". Estes tumores podem ter origem benigna (não se espalham pelo corpo) ou maligna (apresentam metastização de outros órgãos). Sendo uma doença actual, com uma elevada taxa de incidência em Portugal quando comparada com outras doenças (Instituto Nacional de Estatística- INE, 2009), aumentando esta taxa com a idade tal como refere Marques, L. (2003), podendo ocorrer o diagnóstico desta doença em qualquer idade. De acordo com INE (2000) pode dizer-se que o cancro está entre as três principais causas de morte em Portugal, registando-se um aumento progressivo do seu peso proporcional, sendo o cancro da mama o tipo de cancro mais comum entre as mulheres e uma das doenças com maior impacto na nossa sociedade. O objectivo principal deste trabalho é a estimação e modelação do risco de contrair uma doença de natureza não contagiosa e rara (neste caso, cancro da mama), usando dados da região do Alentejo. Pretende-se fazer um apanhado das metodologias mais empregues nesta área e aplicá-las na prática, com ênfase nos estudos caso-controlo e nos modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) - mais concretamente regressão logística. Os estudos caso-controlo são usados para identificar os factores que podem contribuir para uma condição médica, comparando indivíduos que têm essa condição (casos) com pacientes que não têm a condição, mas que de resto são semelhantes (controlos). Neste trabalho utilizou-se essa metodologia para estudar a associação entre o viver em ambiente rural/urbano e o cancro da mama. Tendo em conta que o objectivo principal deste estudo se prende com o estudo da relação entre variáveis, mais propriamente, análise de influência que uma ou mais variáveis (explicativas) têm sobre uma variável de interesse (resposta), para esse efeito são estudados os modelos lineares generalizados - GLM - unificados na mesma moldura teórica pela primeira vez por Nelder & Wedderburn (1972) - e, posteriormente aplicados ao conjunto de dados sobre cancro da mama na Região do Alentejo. O presente trabalho pretende assim, ser um contributo na identificação de factores de risco do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo. ABSTRACT: Epidemiological studies are statistical studies where attempts to relate occurrences of health events with one or more specific causes. The importance of epidemiological models that are far in the study of diseases of cancer forum, particularly in establishing their etiology, is inescapable. According to Ogden, J. (1999) cancer is "an incontrollable growth of abnormal cells that produce tumors called cancer". These tumors may be benign (not spread throughout the body) or malignant (show metastasis to other organs). Being a current illness with a high incidence rate in Portugal compared with the same respect to other diseases (National Statistics 1nstitute -1NE, 2009) having an increasing rate with age as mentioned Marques, L. (2003), and can possibly be diagnosed at any age. According to 1NE (2000) the cancer is among the top three causes of death in Portugal and there is a progressive increase of its proportional weight. Breast cancer is the most common form of cancer among women and the diseases with major impact in our society. The main objective of this work is to model and estimate the risk of contracting a non-contagious and rare disease (in this case, breast cancer), using data from the Alentejo region. It is intended to summarize some of the methodologies employed in this area and apply them in practice, with emphasis on case-control studies and generalized linear models (GLM) - more specifically the logistic regression. The case-control studies are used to identify factors that may contribute to a medical condition, comparing individuals who have this condition (cases) with patients who have not the condition but that are otherwise similar (controls). ln this work we used this methodology to study the association between living in a rural/urban and breast cancer. Given that the main objective of this study rather relates to the study of the relationship between variables to analyze the influence that one or more variables (explanatory) have on a variable (response), for this purpose we study the generalized linear models - GLM - first unified in the same theoretical framework by Nelder and Wedderburn (1972) and subsequently applied to the data set on breast cancer in the Alentejo region. This work intends to be a contribution in identifying risk factors for breast cancer in the Alentejo region.

Genetic Predictors Of Long-term Response To Growth Hormone (gh) Therapy In Children With Gh Deficiency And Turner Syndrome: The Influence Of A Socs2 Polymorphism.

There is great interindividual variability in the response to GH therapy. Ascertaining genetic factors can improve the accuracy of growth response predictions. Suppressor of cytokine signaling (SOCS)-2 is an intracellular negative regulator of GH receptor (GHR) signaling. The objective of the study was to assess the influence of a SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) and its interactive effect with GHR exon 3 and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (rs2854744) polymorphisms on adult height of patients treated with recombinant human GH (rhGH). Genotypes were correlated with adult height data of 65 Turner syndrome (TS) and 47 GH deficiency (GHD) patients treated with rhGH, by multiple linear regressions. Generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction was used to evaluate gene-gene interactions. Baseline clinical data were indistinguishable among patients with different genotypes. Adult height SD scores of patients with at least one SOCS2 single-nucleotide polymorphism rs3782415-C were 0.7 higher than those homozygous for the T allele (P < .001). SOCS2 (P = .003), GHR-exon 3 (P= .016) and -202 A/C IGFBP3 (P = .013) polymorphisms, together with clinical factors accounted for 58% of the variability in adult height and 82% of the total height SD score gain. Patients harboring any two negative genotypes in these three different loci (homozygosity for SOCS2 T allele; the GHR exon 3 full-length allele and/or the -202C-IGFBP3 allele) were more likely to achieve an adult height at the lower quartile (odds ratio of 13.3; 95% confidence interval of 3.2-54.2, P = .0001). The SOCS2 polymorphism (rs3782415) has an influence on the adult height of children with TS and GHD after long-term rhGH therapy. Polymorphisms located in GHR, IGFBP3, and SOCS2 loci have an influence on the growth outcomes of TS and GHD patients treated with rhGH. The use of these genetic markers could identify among rhGH-treated patients those who are genetically predisposed to have less favorable outcomes.

Primary Relapse Site Pattern In Women With Triple-negative Breast Cancer.

Despite the remarkable improvements in breast cancer (BC) characterization, accurate prediction of BC clinical behavior is often still difficult to achieve. Some studies have investigated the association between the molecular subtype, namely the basal-like BC and the pattern of relapse, however only few investigated the association between relapse pattern and immunohistochemical defined triple-negative breast cancers (TNBCs). The aim of this study was to evaluate the pattern of relapse in patients with TNBC, namely the primary distant relapse site. One-hundred twenty nine (129) invasive breast carcinomas with follow-up information were classified according to the molecular subtype using immunohistochemistry for ER, PgR and Her2. The association between TNBC and distant relapse primary site was analyzed by logistic regression. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis patients with TNBC displayed only 0.09 (95% CI: 0.00-0.74; p=0.02) the odds of the non-TNBC patients of developing bone primary relapse. Regarding visceral and lymph-node relapse, no differences between in this cohort were found. Though classically regarded as aggressive tumors, TNBCs rarely development primary relapse in bone when compared to non-TNBC, a clinical relevant fact when investigating a metastasis of an occult or non-sampled primary BC.

What Is The Best Indication For Single-incision Ophira Mini Sling? Insights From A 2-year Follow-up International Multicentric Study.

The Ophira Mini Sling System involves anchoring a midurethral, low-tension tape to the obturator internus muscles bilaterally at the level of the tendinous arc. Success rates in different subsets of patients are still to be defined. This work aims to identify which factors influence the 2-year outcomes of this treatment. Analysis was based on data from a multicenter study. Endpoints for analysis included objective measurements: 1-h pad-weight (PWT), and cough stress test (CST), and questionnaires: International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire-Short Form (ICIQ-SF) and Urinary Distress Inventory (UDI)-6. A logistic regression analysis evaluated possible risk factors for failure. In all, 124 female patients with stress urinary incontinence (SUI) underwent treatment with the Ophira procedure. All patients completed 1 year of follow-up, and 95 complied with the 2-year evaluation. Longitudinal analysis showed no significant differences between results at 1 and 2 years. The 2-year overall objective results were 81 (85.3%) patients dry, six (6.3%) improved, and eight (8.4%) incontinent. A multivariate analysis revealed that previous anti-incontinence surgery was the only factor that significantly influenced surgical outcomes. Two years after treatment, women with previous failed surgeries had an odds ratio (OR) for treatment failure (based on PWT) of 4.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-15.57). The Ophira procedure is an effective option for SUI treatment, with durable good results. Previous surgeries were identified as the only significant risk factor, though previously operated patients showed an acceptable success rate.

Neonatal Outcomes Of Late Preterm And Early Term Birth.

To compare neonatal deaths and complications in infants born at 34-36 weeks and six days (late preterm: LPT) with those born at term (37-41 weeks and six days); to compare deaths of early term (37-38 weeks) versus late term (39-41 weeks and six days) infants; to search for any temporal trend in LPT rate. A retrospective cohort study of live births was conducted in the Campinas State University, Brazil, from January 2004 to December 2010. Multiple pregnancies, malformations and congenital diseases were excluded. Control for confounders was performed. The level of significance was set at p<0.05. After exclusions, there were 17,988 births (1653 late preterm and 16,345 term infants). A higher mortality in LPT versus term was observed, with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 5.29 (p<0.0001). Most complications were significantly associated with LPT births. There was a significant increase in LPT rate throughout the study period, but no significant trend in the rate of medically indicated deliveries. A higher mortality was observed in early term versus late term infants, with adjusted OR: 2.43 (p=0.038). LPT and early term infants have a significantly higher risk of death.

Effects Of Therapeutic Approach On The Neonatal Evolution Of Very Low Birth Weight Infants With Patent Ductus Arteriosus.

To analyze the effects of treatment approach on the outcomes of newborns (birth weight [BW] < 1,000 g) with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA), from the Brazilian Neonatal Research Network (BNRN) on: death, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH III/IV), retinopathy of prematurity requiring surgical (ROPsur), necrotizing enterocolitis requiring surgery (NECsur), and death/BPD. This was a multicentric, cohort study, retrospective data collection, including newborns (BW < 1000 g) with gestational age (GA) < 33 weeks and echocardiographic diagnosis of PDA, from 16 neonatal units of the BNRN from January 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2011. Newborns who died or were transferred until the third day of life, and those with presence of congenital malformation or infection were excluded. Groups: G1 - conservative approach (without treatment), G2 - pharmacologic (indomethacin or ibuprofen), G3 - surgical ligation (independent of previous treatment). Factors analyzed: antenatal corticosteroid, cesarean section, BW, GA, 5 min. Apgar score < 4, male gender, Score for Neonatal Acute Physiology Perinatal Extension (SNAPPE II), respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), late sepsis (LS), mechanical ventilation (MV), surfactant (< 2 h of life), and time of MV. death, O2 dependence at 36 weeks (BPD36wks), IVH III/IV, ROPsur, NECsur, and death/BPD36wks. Student's t-test, chi-squared test, or Fisher's exact test; Odds ratio (95% CI); logistic binary regression and backward stepwise multiple regression. Software: MedCalc (Medical Calculator) software, version 12.1.4.0. p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. 1,097 newborns were selected and 494 newborns were included: G1 - 187 (37.8%), G2 - 205 (41.5%), and G3 - 102 (20.6%). The highest mortality was observed in G1 (51.3%) and the lowest in G3 (14.7%). The highest frequencies of BPD36wks (70.6%) and ROPsur were observed in G3 (23.5%). The lowest occurrence of death/BPD36wks occurred in G2 (58.0%). Pharmacological (OR 0.29; 95% CI: 0.14-0.62) and conservative (OR 0.34; 95% CI: 0.14-0.79) treatments were protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks. The conservative approach of PDA was associated to high mortality, the surgical approach to the occurrence of BPD36wks and ROPsur, and the pharmacological treatment was protective for the outcome death/BPD36wks.

[association Between Breast Arterial Calcifications And Cardiovascular Risk Factors In Menopausal Women].

To analyze associations between mammographic arterial mammary calcifications in menopausal women and risk factors for cardiovascular disease. This was a cross-sectional retrospective study, in which we analyzed the mammograms and medical records of 197 patients treated between 2004 and 2005. Study variables were: breast arterial calcifications, stroke, acute coronary syndrome, age, obesity, diabetes mellitus, smoking, and hypertension. For statistical analysis, we used the Mann-Whitney, χ2 and Cochran-Armitage tests, and also evaluated the prevalence ratios between these variables and mammary artery calcifications. Data were analyzed with the SAS version 9.1 software. In the group of 197 women, there was a prevalence of 36.6% of arterial calcifications on mammograms. Among the risk factors analyzed, the most frequent were hypertension (56.4%), obesity (31.9%), smoking (15.2%), and diabetes (14.7%). Acute coronary syndrome and stroke presented 5.6 and 2.0% of prevalence, respectively. Among the mammograms of women with diabetes, the odds ratio of mammary artery calcifications was 2.1 (95%CI 1.0-4.1), with p-value of 0.02. On the other hand, the mammograms of smokers showed the low occurrence of breast arterial calcification, with an odds ratio of 0.3 (95%CI 0.1-0.8). Hypertension, obesity, diabetes mellitus, stroke and acute coronary syndrome were not significantly associated with breast arterial calcification. The occurrence of breast arterial calcification was associated with diabetes mellitus and was negatively associated with smoking. The presence of calcification was independent of the other risk factors for cardiovascular disease analyzed.