Predicting random effects with an expanded finite population mixed model

Prediction of random effects is an important problem with expanding applications. In the simplest context, the problem corresponds to prediction of the latent value (the mean) of a realized cluster selected via two-stage sampling. Recently, Stanek and Singer [Predicting random effects from finite population clustered samples with response error. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 99, 119-130] developed best linear unbiased predictors (BLUP) under a finite population mixed model that outperform BLUPs from mixed models and superpopulation models. Their setup, however, does not allow for unequally sized clusters. To overcome this drawback, we consider an expanded finite population mixed model based on a larger set of random variables that span a higher dimensional space than those typically applied to such problems. We show that BLUPs for linear combinations of the realized cluster means derived under such a model have considerably smaller mean squared error (MSE) than those obtained from mixed models, superpopulation models, and finite population mixed models. We motivate our general approach by an example developed for two-stage cluster sampling and show that it faithfully captures the stochastic aspects of sampling in the problem. We also consider simulation studies to illustrate the increased accuracy of the BLUP obtained under the expanded finite population mixed model. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scalar field theory at finite temperature in D=2+1

We discuss the phi(6) theory defined in D=2+1-dimensional space-time and assume that the system is in equilibrium with a thermal bath at temperature beta(-1). We use the 1/N expansion and the method of the composite operator (Cornwall, Jackiw, and Tomboulis) for summing a large set of Feynman graphs. We demonstrate explicitly the Coleman-Mermin-Wagner theorem at finite temperature.

Scalar field theory at finite temperature in D=2+1

We discuss the phi(6) theory defined in D = 2 + 1-dimensional space-time and assume that the system is in equilibrium with a thermal bath at temperature beta(-1). We use the 1/N expansion and the method of composite operator (CJT) for summing a large set of Feynman graphs. We demonstrate explicitly the Coleman-Mermin-Wagner theorem at finite temperature.

Local dimension and finite time prediction in spatiotemporal chaotic systems

Predictability is related to the uncertainty in the outcome of future events during the evolution of the state of a system. The cluster weighted modeling (CWM) is interpreted as a tool to detect such an uncertainty and used it in spatially distributed systems. As such, the simple prediction algorithm in conjunction with the CWM forms a powerful set of methods to relate predictability and dimension.

Phase transitions in number theory: from the birthday problem to Sidon sets

In this work, we show how number theoretical problems can be fruitfully approached with the tools of statistical physics. We focus on g-Sidon sets, which describe sequences of integers whose pairwise sums are different, and propose a random decision problem which addresses the probability of a random set of k integers to be g-Sidon. First, we provide numerical evidence showing that there is a crossover between satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases which converts to an abrupt phase transition in a properly defined thermodynamic limit. Initially assuming independence, we then develop a mean-field theory for the g-Sidon decision problem. We further improve the mean-field theory, which is only qualitatively correct, by incorporating deviations from independence, yielding results in good quantitative agreement with the numerics for both finite systems and in the thermodynamic limit. Connections between the generalized birthday problem in probability theory, the number theory of Sidon sets and the properties of q-Potts models in condensed matter physics are briefly discussed

Gibbs random graphs on point processes

Consider a discrete locally finite subset Gamma of R(d) and the cornplete graph (Gamma, E), with vertices Gamma and edges E. We consider Gibbs measures on the set of sub-graphs with vertices Gamma and edges E` subset of E. The Gibbs interaction acts between open edges having a vertex in common. We study percolation properties of the Gibbs distribution of the graph ensemble. The main results concern percolation properties of the open edges in two cases: (a) when Gamma is sampled from a homogeneous Poisson process; and (b) for a fixed Gamma with sufficiently sparse points. (c) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3514605]

An oracle approach for interaction neighborhood estimation in random fields

We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.

Multiple random crack propagation using a boundary element formulation

This paper proposes a boundary element method (BEM) model that is used for the analysis of multiple random crack growth by considering linear elastic fracture mechanics problems and structures subjected to fatigue. The formulation presented in this paper is based on the dual boundary element method, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. This technique avoids singularities of the resulting algebraic system of equations, despite the fact that the collocation points coincide for the two opposite crack faces. In fracture mechanics analyses, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate stress intensity factors. The maximum circumferential stress theory is used to evaluate the propagation angle and the effective stress intensity factor. The fatigue model uses Paris` law to predict structural life. Examples of simple and multi-fractured structures loaded until rupture are considered. These analyses demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model. In addition, the results indicate that this formulation is accurate and can model localisation and coalescence phenomena. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Galerkin finite element method for incompressible thermofluid flows framed within the bond graph theory

In this paper a bond graph methodology is used to model incompressible fluid flows with viscous and thermal effects. The distinctive characteristic of these flows is the role of pressure, which does not behave as a state variable but as a function that must act in such a way that the resulting velocity field has divergence zero. Velocity and entropy per unit volume are used as independent variables for a single-phase, single-component flow. Time-dependent nodal values and interpolation functions are introduced to represent the flow field, from which nodal vectors of velocity and entropy are defined as state variables. The system for momentum and continuity equations is coincident with the one obtained by using the Galerkin method for the weak formulation of the problem in finite elements. The integral incompressibility constraint is derived based on the integral conservation of mechanical energy. The weak formulation for thermal energy equation is modeled with true bond graph elements in terms of nodal vectors of temperature and entropy rates, resulting a Petrov-Galerkin method. The resulting bond graph shows the coupling between mechanical and thermal energy domains through the viscous dissipation term. All kind of boundary conditions are handled consistently and can be represented as generalized effort or flow sources. A procedure for causality assignment is derived for the resulting graph, satisfying the Second principle of Thermodynamics. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Heisenberg antiferromagnet on an anisotropic triangular lattice: linear spin-wave theory

We consider the effect of quantum spin fluctuations on the ground-state properties of the Heisenberg antiferromagnet on an anisotropic triangular lattice using linear spin-wave (LSW) theory. This model should describe the magnetic properties of the insulating phase of the kappa-(BEDT-TTF)(2)X family of superconducting molecular crystals. The ground-state energy, the staggered magnetization, magnon excitation spectra, and spin-wave velocities are computed as functions of the ratio of the antiferromagnetic exchange between the second and first neighbours, J(2)/J(1). We find that near J(2)/J(1) = 0.5, i.e., in the region where the classical spin configuration changes from a Neel-ordered phase to a spiral phase, the staggered magnetization vanishes, suggesting the possibility of a quantum disordered state. in this region, the quantum correction to the magnetization is large but finite. This is in contrast to the case for the frustrated Heisenberg model on a square lattice, for which the quantum correction diverges logarithmically at the transition from the Neel to the collinear phase. For large J(2)/J(1), the model becomes a set of chains with frustrated interchain coupling. For J(2) > 4J(1), the quantum correction to the magnetization, within LSW theory, becomes comparable to the classical magnetization, suggesting the possibility of a quantum disordered state. We show that, in this regime, the quantum fluctuations are much larger than for a set of weakly coupled chains with non-frustrated interchain coupling.

Robust Mixture Modelling Using the t Distribution

Normal mixture models are being increasingly used to model the distributions of a wide variety of random phenomena and to cluster sets of continuous multivariate data. However, for a set of data containing a group or groups of observations with longer than normal tails or atypical observations, the use of normal components may unduly affect the fit of the mixture model. In this paper, we consider a more robust approach by modelling the data by a mixture of t distributions. The use of the ECM algorithm to fit this t mixture model is described and examples of its use are given in the context of clustering multivariate data in the presence of atypical observations in the form of background noise.

The application of adaptive partitioned random search in feature selection problem

Feature selection is one of important and frequently used techniques in data preprocessing. It can improve the efficiency and the effectiveness of data mining by reducing the dimensions of feature space and removing the irrelevant and redundant information. Feature selection can be viewed as a global optimization problem of finding a minimum set of M relevant features that describes the dataset as well as the original N attributes. In this paper, we apply the adaptive partitioned random search strategy into our feature selection algorithm. Under this search strategy, the partition structure and evaluation function is proposed for feature selection problem. This algorithm ensures the global optimal solution in theory and avoids complete randomness in search direction. The good property of our algorithm is shown through the theoretical analysis.

Computation of the linear elastic properties of random porous materials with a wide variety of microstructure

A finite-element method is used to study the elastic properties of random three-dimensional porous materials with highly interconnected pores. We show that Young's modulus, E, is practically independent of Poisson's ratio of the solid phase, nu(s), over the entire solid fraction range, and Poisson's ratio, nu, becomes independent of nu(s) as the percolation threshold is approached. We represent this behaviour of nu in a flow diagram. This interesting but approximate behaviour is very similar to the exactly known behaviour in two-dimensional porous materials. In addition, the behaviour of nu versus nu(s) appears to imply that information in the dilute porosity limit can affect behaviour in the percolation threshold limit. We summarize the finite-element results in terms of simple structure-property relations, instead of tables of data, to make it easier to apply the computational results. Without using accurate numerical computations, one is limited to various effective medium theories and rigorous approximations like bounds and expansions. The accuracy of these equations is unknown for general porous media. To verify a particular theory it is important to check that it predicts both isotropic elastic moduli, i.e. prediction of Young's modulus alone is necessary but not sufficient. The subtleties of Poisson's ratio behaviour actually provide a very effective method for showing differences between the theories and demonstrating their ranges of validity. We find that for moderate- to high-porosity materials, none of the analytical theories is accurate and, at present, numerical techniques must be relied upon.

Analysis of functionally graded sandwich plate structures with piezoelectric skins, using B-spline finite strip method

Functionally graded materials are composite materials wherein the composition of the constituent phases can vary in a smooth continuous way with a gradation which is function of its spatial coordinates. This characteristic proves to be an important issue as it can minimize abrupt variations of the material properties which are usually responsible for localized high values of stresses, and simultaneously providing an effective thermal barrier in specific applications. In the present work, it is studied the static and free vibration behaviour of functionally graded sandwich plate type structures, using B-spline finite strip element models based on different shear deformation theories. The effective properties of functionally graded materials are estimated according to Mori-Tanaka homogenization scheme. These sandwich structures can also consider the existence of outer skins of piezoelectric materials, thus achieving them adaptive characteristics. The performance of the models, are illustrated through a set of test cases. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Salience Theory of Choice Errors

We study a psychologically based foundation for choice errors. The decision maker applies a preference ranking after forming a 'consideration set' prior to choosing an alternative. Membership of the consideration set is determined both by the alternative specific salience and by the rationality of the agent (his general propensity to consider all alternatives). The model turns out to include a logit formulation as a special case. In general, it has a rich set of implications both for exogenous parameters and for a situation in which alternatives can a¤ect their own salience (salience games). Such implications are relevant to assess the link between 'revealed' preferences and 'true' preferences: for example, less rational agents may paradoxically express their preference through choice more truthfully than more rational agents.