Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

Rare sex or out of reach equilibrium? The dynamics of F-IS in partially clonal organisms

Background: Partially clonal organisms are very common in nature, yet the influence of partial asexuality on the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity remains poorly understood. Mathematical models accounting for clonality predict deviations only for extremely rare sex and only towards mean inbreeding coefficient (F-IS) over bar < 0. Yet in partially clonal species, both F-IS < 0 and F-IS > 0 are frequently observed also in populations where there is evidence for a significant amount of sexual reproduction. Here, we studied the joint effects of partial clonality, mutation and genetic drift with a state-and-time discrete Markov chain model to describe the dynamics of F-IS over time under increasing rates of clonality. Results: Results of the mathematical model and simulations show that partial clonality slows down the asymptotic convergence to F-IS = 0. Thus, although clonality alone does not lead to departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations once reached the final equilibrium state, both negative and positive F-IS values can arise transiently even at intermediate rates of clonality. More importantly, such "transient" departures from Hardy Weinberg proportions may last long as clonality tunes up the temporal variation of F-IS and reduces its rate of change over time, leading to a hyperbolic increase of the maximal time needed to reach the final mean (F-IS,F-infinity) over bar value expected at equilibrium. Conclusion: Our results argue for a dynamical interpretation of F-IS in clonal populations. Negative values cannot be interpreted as unequivocal evidence for extremely scarce sex but also as intermediate rates of clonality in finite populations. Complementary observations (e.g. frequency distribution of multiloci genotypes, population history) or time series data may help to discriminate between different possible conclusions on the extent of clonality when mean (F-IS) over bar values deviating from zero and/or a large variation of F-IS over loci are observed.

Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Pb(II) Binding by SiO2 Nanoparticles in an Aqueous Dispersion

Pb(II) binding by SiO2 nanoparticles in an aqueous dispersion was investigated under conditions where the concentrations of Pb2+ ions and nanoparticles are of similar magnitude. Conditional stability constants (log K) obtained at different values of pH and ionic strength varied from 4.4 at pH 5.5 and I = 0.1 M to 6.4 at pH 6.5 and I = 0.0015 M. In the range of metal to nanoparticle ratios from 1.6 to 0.3, log K strongly increases, which is shown to be due to heterogeneity in Pb(II) binding. For an ionic strength of 0.1 M the Pb2+/SiO2 nanoparticle system is labile, whereas for lower ionic strengths there is loss of lability with increasing pH and decreasing ionic strength. Theoretical calculations on the basis of Eigen-type complex formation kinetics seem to support the loss of lability. This is related to the nanoparticulate nature of the system, where complexation rate constants become increasingly diffusion controlled. The ion binding heterogeneity and chemodynamics of oxidic nanoparticles clearly need further detailed research.

A systems approach to cardiovascular health and disease with a focus on aortic wave dynamics

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have reached an epidemic proportion in the US and worldwide with serious consequences in terms of human suffering and economic impact. More than one third of American adults are suffering from CVDs. The total direct and indirect costs of CVDs are more than $500 billion per year. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop noninvasive diagnostics methods, to design minimally invasive assist devices, and to develop economical and easy-to-use monitoring systems for cardiovascular diseases. In order to achieve these goals, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the subsystems that constitute the cardiovascular system. The aorta is one of these subsystems whose role in cardiovascular functioning has been underestimated. Traditionally, the aorta and its branches have been viewed as resistive conduits connected to an active pump (left ventricle of the heart). However, this perception fails to explain many observed physiological results. My goal in this thesis is to demonstrate the subtle but important role of the aorta as a system, with focus on the wave dynamics in the aorta.

The operation of a healthy heart is based on an optimized balance between its pumping characteristics and the hemodynamics of the aorta and vascular branches. The delicate balance between the aorta and heart can be impaired due to aging, smoking, or disease. The heart generates pulsatile flow that produces pressure and flow waves as it enters into the compliant aorta. These aortic waves propagate and reflect from reflection sites (bifurcations and tapering). They can act constructively and assist the blood circulation. However, they may act destructively, promoting diseases or initiating sudden cardiac death. These waves also carry information about the diseases of the heart, vascular disease, and coupling of heart and aorta. In order to elucidate the role of the aorta as a dynamic system, the interplay between the dominant wave dynamic parameters is investigated in this study. These parameters are heart rate, aortic compliance (wave speed), and locations of reflection sites. Both computational and experimental approaches have been used in this research. In some cases, the results are further explained using theoretical models.

The main findings of this study are as follows: (i) developing a physiologically realistic outflow boundary condition for blood flow modeling in a compliant vasculature; (ii) demonstrating that pulse pressure as a single index cannot predict the true level of pulsatile workload on the left ventricle; (iii) proving that there is an optimum heart rate in which the pulsatile workload of the heart is minimized and that the optimum heart rate shifts to a higher value as aortic rigidity increases; (iv) introducing a simple bio-inspired device for correction and optimization of aortic wave reflection that reduces the workload on the heart; (v) deriving a non-dimensional number that can predict the optimum wave dynamic state in a mammalian cardiovascular system; (vi) demonstrating that waves can create a pumping effect in the aorta; (vii) introducing a system parameter and a new medical index, Intrinsic Frequency, that can be used for noninvasive diagnosis of heart and vascular diseases; and (viii) proposing a new medical hypothesis for sudden cardiac death in young athletes.

Do improved pastures affect enzymatic activity and C and N dynamics in soils of the montado system ?

Vast montado areas are threatened by degradation, as the result of a long history of land use changes. Since improved pastures have been installed aiming soil quality improvement and system sustainability, it is crucial to evaluate the effects of these management changes on soil organic matter status and soil biological activity, as soil quality indicators. Therefore, a 35-yr old improved pasture and a natural pasture were studied, considering areas beneath tree canopy and in the open. Total organic C, total N, hot water soluble (HWS) and particulate (POM) C, microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), C mineralization rate (CMR) and net N mineralization rate (NMR) were determined. In addition, for a 1-yr period, soil β-glucosidase, urease, proteases and acid phosphomonoesterase were periodically determined. Improved pasture promoted the increase of soil C and N through POM-C increment, particularly beneath the trees canopies. The two study pastures did not show differences regarding soil microbial biomass, but variations in CMR, HWS-C and N availability (proteases and urease activities) suggest divergent soil microbial communities. Tree regulator role on C, N and P transformation processes in soil was confirmed

Dynamics of Granular Crystals with Elastic-Plastic Contacts

We study the behavior of granular crystals subjected to impact loading that creates plastic deformation at the contacts between constituent particles. Granular crystals are highly periodic arrangements of spherical particles, arranged into densely packed structures resembling crystals. This special class of granular materials has been shown to have unique dynamics with suggested applications in impact protection. However, previous work has focused on very low amplitude impacts where every contact point can be described using the Hertzian contact law, valid only for purely elastic deformation. In this thesis, we extend previous investigation of the dynamics of granular crystals to significantly higher impact energies more suitable for the majority of applications. Additionally, we demonstrate new properties specific to elastic-plastic granular crystals and discuss their potential applications as well. We first develop a new contact law to describe the interaction between particles for large amplitude compression of elastic-plastic spherical particles including a formulation for strain-rate dependent plasticity. We numerically and experimentally demonstrate the applicability of this contact law to a variety of materials typically used in granular crystals. We then extend our investigation to one-dimensional chains of elastic-plastic particles, including chains of alternating dissimilar materials. We show that, using the new elastic-plastic contact law, we can predict the speed at which impact waves with plastic dissipation propagate based on the material properties of the constituent particles. Finally, we experimentally and numerically investigate the dynamics of two-dimensional and three-dimensional granular crystals with elastic-plastic contacts. We first show that the predicted wave speeds for 1D granular crystals can be extended to 2D and 3D materials. We then investigate the behavior of waves propagating across oblique interfaces of dissimilar particles. We show that the character of the refracted wave can be predicted using an analog to Snell's law for elastic-plastic granular crystals and ultimately show how it can be used to design impact guiding "lenses" for mitigation applications.

Vortex Shedding Dynamics in Long Aspect-Ratio Aerodynamics Bodies

The focus of the current dissertation is to study qualitatively the underlying physics of vortex-shedding and wake dynamics in long aspect-ratio aerodynamics in incompressible viscous flow through the use of the KLE method. We carried out a long series of numerical experiments in the cases of flow around the cylinder at low Reynolds numbers. The study of flow at low Reynolds numbers provides an insight in the fluid physics and also plays a critical role when applying to stalled turbine rotors. Many of the conclusions about the qualitative nature of the physical mechanisms characterizing vortex formation, shedding and further interaction analyzed here at low Re could be extended to other Re regimes and help to understand the separation of the boundary layers in airfoils and other aerodynamic surfaces. In the long run, it aims to provide a better understanding of the complex multi-physics problems involving fluid-structure-control interaction through improved mathematical computational models of the multi-physics process. Besides the scientific conclusions produced, the research work on streamlined and bluff-body condition will also serve as a valuable guide for the future design of blade aerodynamics and the placement of wind turbines and hydrakinetic turbines, increasing the efficiency in the use of expensive workforce, supplies, and infrastructure. After the introductory section describing the main fields of application of wind power and hydrokinetic turbines, we describe the main features and theoretical background of the numerical method used here. Then, we present the analysis of the numerical experimentation results for the oscillatory regime right before the onset of vortex shedding for circular cylinders. We verified the wake length of the closed near-wake behind the cylinder and analysed the decay of the wake at the wake formation region, and then studied the St-Re relationship at the Reynolds numbers before the wake sheds compared to the experimental data. We found a theoretical model that describes the time evolution of the amplitude of fluctuations in the vorticity field on the twin vortex wake, which accurately matches the numerical results in terms of the frequency of the oscillation and rate of decay. We also proposed a model based on an analog circuit that is able to interpret the concerning flow by reducing the number of degrees of freedom. It follows the idea of the non-linear oscillator and resembles the dynamics mechanism of the closed near-wake with a common configured sine wave oscillator. This low-dimensional circuital model may also help to understand the underlying physical mechanisms, related to vorticity transport, that give origin to those oscillations.

Influence of kaolin addition on the dynamics of oxygen mass transport in polyvinyl alcohol dispersion coatings

The permeability of dispersion barriers produced from polyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) and kaolin clay blends coated onto polymeric supports has been studied by employing two different measurement methods: the oxygen transmission rate (OTR) and the ambient oxygen ingress rate (AOIR). Coatings with different thicknesses and kaolin contents were studied. Structural information of the dispersion-barrier coatings was obtained by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) spectroscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). These results showed that the kaolin content influences both the orientation of the kaolin and the degree of crystallinity of the PVOH coating. Increased kaolin content increased the alignment of the kaolin platelets to the basal plane of the coating. Higher kaolin content was accompanied by higher degree of crystallinity of the PVOH. The barrier thickness proved to be less important in the early stages of the mass transport process, whereas it had a significant influence on the steady-state permeability. The results from this study demonstrate the need for better understanding of how permeability is influenced by (chemical and physical) structure.

Life history & environmental effects on telomere dynamics in Atlantic salmon

While much of the study of molecular biology inevitably focuses on the parts of the genome that contain active genes, there are also non-coding regions that nonetheless play an essential role in maintaining genome integrity. One such region are telomeres, which cap the ends of all eukaryotic chromosomes and play an important role in chromosome protection. Telomere loss occurs at each cell division as a result of the ‘end replication problem’ and a relatively short telomere length is indicative of poor biological state. Thus far, the majority of studies on the dynamics and role of telomeres have been biased towards certain taxa. Research to date has mostly focussed on humans, other mammals and birds. There has been far less research on the telomere dynamics of ectotherms. It is important that we do so, especially since ectothermic vertebrates do not seem to down-regulate telomerase expression in the same way as endotherms, suggesting that their telomere dynamics may be less predictable in the later life stages. The main objective of this thesis was therefore to investigate how life history and environmental effects may influence telomere dynamics in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. I carried out carefully designed experiments, both in the laboratory and in the wild, using a longitudinal approach where possible, in order to address a number of specific questions that are connected to this central theme. In chapter 2, I demonstrate that there can be significant links between parental life history and offspring telomere dynamics. Maternal life history traits, in particular egg size, were most strongly related to offspring telomere length at the embryonic stages. Paternal life history traits, such as early life growth rate, had a greater association with offspring telomere dynamics in the later stages of development. In chapter 3, using a wild Atlantic salmon population, I found that most individuals experienced a reduction in telomere length during the migratory phase of their life cycle; however the relative rate of telomere loss was dependent on sex, with males experiencing a relatively greater loss. Unexpectedly, I also found that juvenile salmon that had the shortest telomeres at the time of outward migration, had the greatest probability of surviving through to the return migration. In chapter 4, again using a wild system involving experimental manipulations of juvenile Atlantic salmon in Scottish streams, I found that telomere length in juvenile fish was influenced by parental traits and by direct environmental effects. Faster-growing fish had shorter telomeres and there was a greater cost (in terms of reduced telomere length) if the growth occurred in a harsher environment. I also found a positive association between offspring telomere length and the growth history of their fathers (but not mothers), represented by the number of years that fathers had spent at sea. Chapter 5 explored the hypotheses that oxidative DNA damage, catalase (CAT) antioxidant activity and cell proliferation rate are underlying mechanisms linking incubation temperature and telomere dynamics in salmon embryos. No evidence was found for any such effects, but telomere lengths in salmon embryos were found to be significantly affected by the temperature of the water in which they were living. There is also evidence that telomere length significantly increases during embryonic development. In summary, this thesis has shown that a complex mix of environmental and parental effects appear to influence telomere dynamics in Atlantic salmon, with parental effects especially evident during early life stages. It also demonstrated that telomeres lengthen through the embryo stages of development before reducing once the fry begin feeding, indicating that the patterns of telomere loss commonly found in endotherms may differ in ectotherms. Reasons for this variation in telomere dynamics are presented in the final Discussion chapter of the thesis.

Using sclerochronology to estimate the growth rate in Pinna nobilis: a case study of Les Alfaques Bay population (Ebro Delta, Spain).

Pinna nobilis is the biggest Mediterranean bivalve, endemic and semi-infaunal. Provide hard substrates to colonize, increasing the spatial heterogeneity of the softbottom communities. P. nobilis suffer a drastic decline due to the anthropogenic pressures. It’s included in the Habitats Directive, in the Barcelona Convention, and in the red lists of many Mediterranean countries. Estimates the growth rate allows to understand the population dynamics of species and yield knowledge to improve protection efforts. In this study a new methodology based on sclerochronology was used to estimate the age and the growth rate of a P. nobilis population located in Les Alfaques bay. The shells of 35 specimens were cataloged. A subsample of 20 individuals was selected, and one valve of each specimens was cut into radial sections along PAMS (Posterior Adductor Muscle Scar) to study the inner register. Thus, the positions of PAMS obscured by nacre were identified, and the number of missing records was estimated by the width of the calcitic layer in the anterior part of the shell. The first growth curve for the Les Alfaques bay population was calculated from the length/age data. To simulate the growth rate of this population, the growth model based on the modified Von Bertalanffy equation was used. Shallow water usually hosts small sized populations of P. nobilis, while in deeper waters specimens reaches larger size. In Les Alfaques bay the population is composed by large size individuals though it’s located in shallows waters. This unusual size pattern is probably due to a sand bar that offers protection from hydrodynamic stress, allowing individuals to elongate more. This study contributes to the knowledge on P. nobilis biology and, with the aim to monitor this species, the growth curve could be used as baseline for future studies on habitat characteristics that may affect the population structure and dynamics in Les Alfaques Bay.

Dynamics of galaxies in the cluster environment: a resonant origin for the ISP?

The internal dynamics of elliptical galaxies in clusters depends on many factors, including the environment in which the galaxy is located. In addition to the strong encounters with the other galaxies, we can also consider the gravitational interaction with the ubiquitous Cluster Tidal Field (CTF). As recognized in many studies, one possible way in which CTF affects the dynamics of galaxies inside the cluster is related to the fact that they may start oscillating as “rigid bodies” around their equilibrium positions in the field, with the periods of these oscillations curiously similar to those of stellar orbits in the outer parts of galaxies. Resonances between the two motions are hence expected and this phenomenon could significantly contribute to the formation of the Intracluster Stellar Population (ISP), whose presence is abundantly confirmed by observations. In this thesis work, we propose to study the motion of an elliptical galaxy, modelled as a rigid body, in the CTF, especially when its center of mass traces a quasi-circular orbit in the cluster gravitational potential. This case extends and generalizes the previous models and findings, proceeding towards a much more realistic description of galaxy motion. In addition to this, the presence of a further oscillation, namely that of the entire galaxy along its orbit, will possibly increase the probability of having resonances and, consequently, the rate of ISP production nearly to observed values. Thus, after reviewing the dynamics of a rigid body in a generic force field, we will assess some physically relevant studies and report their main results, discussing their implications with respect to our problem. We will conclude our discussion focusing on the more realistic scenario of an elliptical galaxy whose center of mass moves on a quasi-circular orbit in a spherically symmetric potential. The derivation of the fundamental equations of motion will serve as the basis for future modelling and discussions.

Developmental Rate Of Immatures Of Two Fly Species Of Forensic Importance: Sarcophaga (liopygia) Ruficornis And Microcerella Halli (diptera: Sarcophagidae).

Since insect species are poikilothermic organisms, they generally exhibit different growth patterns depending on the temperature at which they develop. This factor is important in forensic entomology, especially for estimating postmortem interval (PMI) when it is based on the developmental time of the insects reared in decomposing bodies. This study aimed to estimate the rates of development, viability, and survival of immatures of Sarcophaga (Liopygia) ruficornis (Fabricius 1794) and Microcerella halli (Engel 1931) (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) reared in different temperatures: 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 ± 1 °C. Bovine raw ground meat was offered as food for all experimental groups, each consisting of four replicates, in the proportion of 2 g/larva. To measure the evolution of growth, ten specimens of each group were randomly chosen and weighed every 12 h, from initial feeding larva to pupae, and then discarded. Considering the records of weight gain, survival rates, and stability of growth rates, the range of optimum temperature for the development of S. (L.) ruficornis is between 20 and 35 °C, and that of M. halli is between 20 and 25 °C. For both species, the longest times of development were in the lowest temperatures. The survival rate at extreme temperatures (10 and 35 °C) was lower in both species. Biological data such as the ones obtained in this study are of great importance to achieve a more accurate estimate of the PMI.

Mechanical Properties And Fracture Dynamics Of Silicene Membranes.

As graphene has become one of the most important materials, there is renewed interest in other similar structures. One example is silicene, the silicon analogue of graphene. It shares some of the remarkable graphene properties, such as the Dirac cone, but presents some distinct ones, such as a pronounced structural buckling. We have investigated, through density functional based tight-binding (DFTB), as well as reactive molecular dynamics (using ReaxFF), the mechanical properties of suspended single-layer silicene. We calculated the elastic constants, analyzed the fracture patterns and edge reconstructions. We also addressed the stress distributions, unbuckling mechanisms and the fracture dependence on the temperature. We analysed the differences due to distinct edge morphologies, namely zigzag and armchair.

Site Specific Spin Dynamics In Bafe2as2: Tuning The Ground State By Orbital Differentiation.

The role of orbital differentiation on the emergence of superconductivity in the Fe-based superconductors remains an open question to the scientific community. In this investigation, we employ a suitable microscopic spin probe technique, namely Electron Spin Resonance (ESR), to investigate this issue on selected chemically substituted BaFe2As2 single crystals. As the spin-density wave (SDW) phase is suppressed, we observe a clear increase of the Fe 3d bands anisotropy along with their localization at the FeAs plane. Such an increase of the planar orbital content is interestingly independent of the chemical substitution responsible for suppressing the SDW phase. As a consequence, the magnetic fluctuations in combination with this particular symmetry of the Fe 3d bands are propitious ingredients for the emergence of superconductivity in this class of materials.