Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Characterization and detection of naturally occurring antibodies against IL-1 alpha and IL-1 beta in normal human plasma.

During the development and testing of a radioreceptor assay (RRA) for human IL-1, we have detected and identified the presence of auto-antibodies to IL-1 in normal human plasma (NHP). The RRA is based on the competition between human 125I-labeled rIL-1 alpha and standard or unknown quantities of IL-1 alpha or IL-1 beta for binding to a limited amounts of IL-1 receptor (IL-1R) isolated from the EL4 mouse thymoma cell line. NHP from 20 out of 100 unselected blood donors were found to completely inhibit the binding of 125I-labeled IL-1 alpha to its receptor, suggesting the presence in these NHP samples of either abnormal amounts of IL-1 or of a factor binding to the 125I-labeled IL-1 alpha. Special care was taken to ascertain that the inhibitory factors were antibodies and not soluble IL-1 receptor antagonist. When plasma samples with inhibiting activity were incubated with labeled IL-1 alpha and chromatographed on a Sephadex G200 column, they were found to contain 125I-labeled complexes with an apparent molecular weight of 150-200kD. The IL-1 binding factor could be eliminated from plasma by incubation with protein A-Sepharose, suggesting that it consisted in IgG antibodies directed against IL-1. Furthermore, the antibody nature of the inhibiting factor was confirmed by its binding to purified rIL-1 coupled to Sepharose. Screening of 200 NHP samples by incubation with 100 pg of 125I-labeled IL-1 followed by precipitation with 12% of polyethylene glycol (PEG) confirmed that about 25% of NHP contain detectable IgG antibodies to IL-1 alpha, while only 2% of NHP contain antibodies to IL-1 beta. No correlation between the presence of these anti-IL-1 antibodies and any particular major histocompatibility complex or any pathological conditions was detected. We suggest that all serum samples assayed for IL-1 alpha or IL-1 beta content should be pretested with the PEG precipitation assay described here.

Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models

We propose a method to estimate time invariant cyclical DSGE models using the informationprovided by a variety of filters. We treat data filtered with alternative procedures as contaminated proxies of the relevant model-based quantities and estimate structural and non-structuralparameters jointly using a signal extraction approach. We employ simulated data to illustratethe properties of the procedure and compare our conclusions with those obtained when just onefilter is used. We revisit the role of money in the transmission of monetary business cycles.

Arthropods associated with pig carrion in two vegetation profiles of Cerrado in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Forensic Entomology research has been concentrated in only a few localities of the "Cerrado" vegetation, the Brazilian Savannah. The present study had, as its objective, an examination of the diversity of arthropod fauna associated with the carcasses of Sus scrofa (Linnaeus) in this biome. The study was conducted during the dry and humid periods in two Cerrado vegetation profiles of the State of Minas Gerais. The decaying process was slower and greater quantities of arthropods were collected during the dry period. Insects represented 99% of 161,116 arthropods collected. The majority of these were Diptera (80.2%) and Coleoptera (8.8%). The entomofauna belong to 85 families and at least 212 species. Diptera were represented by 31 families and at least 132 species. Sarcophagidae (Diptera) and Scarabaeidae (Coleoptera) were the richest groups. Oxysarcodexia (Sarcophagidae) presented the largest number of attracted species, however none of these species bred in the carcasses. The Coleoptera collected belong to at least 50 species of 21 families. Among these species, Dermestes maculatus and Necrobia rufipes were observed breeding in the carcasses. This study showed species with potential importance for estimating the postmortem interval (PMI), indicative of seasonal and environmental type located.

Making land-use fit to planning goals. Weaknesses and opportunities within the Swiss land management regime

In Switzerland, the issue of land consumption has made it to the front of the political agenda in recent years. Studies conducted on a national level have concluded that there is an excess of land zoned for construction (ARE, 2008), which is seen as contributing to urban sprawl. This situation is looked upon as a failure of the Federal Law on Spatial Planning (LAT, 1979) and there is a political push to change it in order to reinforce zoning regulations. In this article, we look on the issue from a different angle. While there may be large quantities of land zoned for construction, in many urban areas land actually available for development is scarce. Building on the idea that planning's efficiency is linked to its capacity of influencing actual land-use, we focus on how this situation can be dealt with within the current Swiss institutional context.

Crepuscular activity of culicids (Diptera, Culicidae) in the peridomicile and in the remaining riparian forest in Tibagi river, State of Paraná, Brazil

Crepuscular activity of culicids (Diptera, Culicidae) in the peridomicile and in the remaining riparian forest in Tibagi river, State of Paraná, Brazil. Human-attracted mosquitoes were collected for one hour, around sunset time (half hour before and half after), from April to December 2006, in two environments (riparian forest and near houses), in Tibagi river basin, Palmeira municipality, State of Paraná. Seven-hundred forty-nine mosquitoes, belonging to 13 species, were collected. Psorophora champerico Dyar & Knab, 1906 (42.86%) and Psorophora discrucians (Walker, 1856) (40.59%) were the most frequent species. No significant differences between quantities of Ps. champerico (t = -0.792; d.f. = 16; p = 0.43) and Ps. discrucians (t = 0.689; d.f. = 16; p = 0.49) obtained in riparian forest and near houses were observed, indicating similar conditions for crepuscular activity of these species in both environments. Psorophora champerico and Ps. discrucians responded (haematophagic activity) to environmental stimuli associated with the twilight hours differently in distinct habitats studied. The former species is registered for the first time in the Atlantic forest biome.

Informal care and labour force participation among middle-aged women in Spain

Informal care is today the form of support most commonly used by those who need other peoplein order to carry out certain activities that are considered basic (eating, dressing, taking a shower,etc.), in Spain and in most other countries in the region. The possible labour opportunity costsincurred by these informal carers, the vast majority of whom are middle-aged women, have not asyet been properly quantified in Spain. It is, however, crucially important to know these quantities ata time when public authorities appear to be determined to extend the coverage offered up to nowas regards long-term care.In this context, we use the Spanish subsample of the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001) to estimate a dynamic ordered probit and so attempt to examine the effects of various typesof informal care on labour behaviour. The results obtained indicate the existence of labouropportunity costs for those women who live with the dependent person they care for, but not forthose who care for someone outside the household. Furthermore, whereas caregiving for morethan a year has negative effects on labour force participation, the same cannot be said of those who start caregiving and stop caregiving .

Occurrence of adults and biological aspects of Geniates borelli Camerano (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Rutelinae) in Aquidauana, MS, Brazil

Occurrence of adults and biological aspects of Geniates borelli Camerano (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae, Rutelinae) in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Due to the importance of Geniates borelli Camerano as a pest in many crops, studies were developed at Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul, Aquidauana campus, MS, Brazil. Adults were collected with a light trap from January 2006 to December 2007. 3,320 adults were collected, and the highest quantities were obtained in October 2006 and November 2007, with 1,548 and 802 adults recorded, respectively. Collected adults were kept in plastic containers with soil and Brachiaria decumbens seedlings for oviposition. 535 eggs measuring 2.30 × 1.60 mm were obtained. As the embryonic development progressed, eggs increased in size to 3.00 × 2.70 mm, and this change occurred between 6 and 10 days after oviposition. The embryonic period lasted 17.9 days. The first, second, and third instars lasted 37.6, 49.7, and 74 days, respectively. The prepupal stage lasted 65.9 days and the pupal stage lasted an average of 18.5 days. The biological cycle is completed in 315.8 days, which characterizes the species as univoltine. The average longevity of females was 35.4 days and 28.5 days for males.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Biological aspects of Leucothyreus alvarengai Frey and Leucothyreus aff. semipruinosus Ohaus (Coleoptera, Melolonthidae, Rutelinae) in crop succession at central Brazil

Biological aspects of Leucothyreus alvarengai Frey and Leucothyreus aff. semipruinosus Ohaus (Coleoptera, Melolonthidae, Rutelinae) in crop succession at central Brazil. Beetles of the family Melolonthidae make up a large group and some species are considered pests of planted crops. Little information is available on the basic biological aspects of the genus Leucothyreus, such as association with cultivated crops and their occurrence periods. Therefore studies were developed in soybean and corn crops in Tangará da Serra, Mato Grosso, Brazil, with the objective of studying the occurrence and biological aspects of Leucothyreus alvarengai Frey and Leucothyreus aff. semipruinosus Ohaus. For acquisition of immature specimens of both species, in April 2011 sampling was performed in corn fields, in July and October in the fallow area, and in soybeans fields planted in December; in 2012 sampling was performed in January and February in soybean fields and in March in corn fields. In 2011 the total number of larvae obtained in April, July, October and December were 100, 6, 30 and 27, and in January, February and March of 2012 these quantities were 32, 52 and 65 larvae, respectively. In all sampling events the larvae of L. alvarengai were collected in greater quantity. At the beginning of the reproductive period of L. alvarengai and L. aff. semipruinosus, it was observed that the adults began to fly and soon after started oviposition in the field in September. The appearance of larvae coincides with the time of soybean planting in the field, thus the larvae feed on roots of soybean plants at the beginning of their development and the cycle from egg to adult of the two species was completed in one year.

The population genetics of clonal and partially clonal diploids.

The consequences of variable rates of clonal reproduction on the population genetics of neutral markers are explored in diploid organisms within a subdivided population (island model). We use both analytical and stochastic simulation approaches. High rates of clonal reproduction will positively affect heterozygosity. As a consequence, nearly twice as many alleles per locus can be maintained and population differentiation estimated as F(ST) value is strongly decreased in purely clonal populations as compared to purely sexual ones. With increasing clonal reproduction, effective population size first slowly increases and then points toward extreme values when the reproductive system tends toward strict clonality. This reflects the fact that polymorphism is protected within individuals due to fixed heterozygosity. Contrarily, genotypic diversity smoothly decreases with increasing rates of clonal reproduction. Asexual populations thus maintain higher genetic diversity at each single locus but a lower number of different genotypes. Mixed clonal/sexual reproduction is nearly indistinguishable from strict sexual reproduction as long as the proportion of clonal reproduction is not strongly predominant for all quantities investigated, except for genotypic diversities (both at individual loci and over multiple loci).

Dosimetric aspects of a national survey of diagnostic and interventional radiology in Switzerland.

The effective dose delivered to the patient was determined, by modeling, for 257 types of examinations covering the different modalities of diagnostic and interventional radiology. The basic operational dosimetric quantities considered were obtained from the parameters of the examinations on the basis of dosimetric models. These models required a precise characterization of each examination. The operational dosimetric quantities were converted into doses to organs and effective doses using appropriate conversion factors. The determination of the collective effective dose to the Swiss population requires a number of corrections to account for the variability of several parameters: sensitivity of the detection system, age, gender, and build of the patient. The use of various dosimetric models is illustrated in this paper for a limited number of examination types covering the different radiological modalities, for which the established typical effective doses are given. With regard to individual doses, the study indicated that the average effective doses per type of examination can be classified into three levels: (a) the weakly irradiating examinations (less than 0.1 mSv), which represent 78% of the examinations and 4% of the collective dose, (b) the moderately irradiating examinations (between 0.1 mSv and 10 mSv), which represent 21% of the examinations and 72% of the collective dose, (c) the strongly irradiating examinations (more than 10 mSv), which represent 1% of the examinations and 24% of the collective dose.

Direct simulation of interface dynamics: linking capillary pressure, interfacial area and surface energy

We perform direct numerical simulations of drainage by solving Navier- Stokes equations in the pore space and employing the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the fluid-fluid interface. After demonstrating that the method is able to deal with large viscosity contrasts and to model the transition from stable flow to viscous fingering, we focus on the definition of macroscopic capillary pressure. When the fluids are at rest, the difference between inlet and outlet pressures and the difference between the intrinsic phase average pressure coincide with the capillary pressure. However, when the fluids are in motion these quantities are dominated by viscous forces. In this case, only a definition based on the variation of the interfacial energy provides an accurate measure of the macroscopic capillary pressure and allows separating the viscous from the capillary pressure components.

Changes of beta-amyloid precursor protein splice patterns in brain cell aggregate cultures.

The splice pattern of beta-amyloid precursor protein (beta-APP) has been studied in a variety of neuronal and glial cells and in brain cell aggregate cultures by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The brain-typical pattern, in which beta-APP695 is the dominant form, has been found only in aggregate cultures but not in any of the other cell types including neuronal cell lines. Selective elimination of glial cells from aggregates resulted in increased quantities of beta-APP695, whereas removal of neurons led to a reduction of beta-APP695 and to an elevation of beta-APP751 and beta-APP770. This shift of splice pattern was not observed in cocultures of the neuronal cell line PC 12 with primary astrocytes combined in a variety of cellular ratios. Blood serum, which is an essential component of these cultures, tested on aggregates, did not reduce the amount of beta-APP695 or have any marked effects on splice patterns generally. From these results it is concluded that investigations on brain-typical splicing of beta-APP require primary neurons. Neuronal cell lines may be no suitable model systems. Splicing events favoring production of beta-APP695 may mark an important, very early step of amyloid formation in the brain.

Projecte de legalització d'una activitat dedicada a l'explotació ramadera i a la formatgeria artesanal

La integració en una mateixa activitat d'una explotació ramadera ecològica basada en el bestiar cabrú de llet i d'una formatgeria artesanal basada en varietats autòctones de formatge de cabra, permet ocupar un nínxol de mercat encara poc explotat actualment a Catalunya. D'igual manera, la dificultat que tenen actualment molts dels formatgers artesans del país per trobar llet de cabra en quantitats suficients i amb unes mínimes garanties higiènico-sanitàries dificulten l'avanç d'un sector amb molt bones perspectives de futur com és el de la formatgeria artesanal i justifica la necessitat de crear noves explotacions (o reconvertir-ne de ja existents) orientant-les de ple vers l'aprofitament lleter del bestiar cabrú, que és actualment molt reduït en l'àmbit Català. A més d'això, les actuals exigències en el camp del benestar animal així com en el camp de la qualitat i de la seguretat alimentaria, exigeixen a les explotacions ramaderes i a les indústries alimentàries el compliment d'una sèrie de requisits, tan de disseny dels locals i de les instal•lacions, com de control de les activitats i dels productes elaborats, que garanteixin en tot moment la seva correcte gestió i funcionament en aquestes matèries. L'objectiu d'aquest projecte, doncs, és la legalització d'una activitat, que anomenarem “Mas Peirot, S.L.”, dedicada a l'explotació ramadera ecològica de bestiar cabrú de llet i a la formatgeria artesanal de formatge de cabra. És important mencionar que tot i tractar-se d'un projecte de legalització d'una activitat,, també s'hi han contemplat aspectes i detalls relacionats amb l'execució de la mateixa, al tractar-se d'unes obres d'una certa complexitat i considerant que així es tracten amb més detall i rigorositat les actuacions projectades. En concret, en aquest projecte es planifiquen les operacions de rehabilitació de dues naus ramaderes actualment en desús, per tal que puguin destinar-se a l'explotació ramadera de bestiar cabrú i a la formatgeria artesanal, projectant-se així mateix totes les instal•lacions necessàries per tal que a les mencionades naus s'hi puguin desenvolupar les activitats citades. Com a conclusions més importants d'aquest projecte podem dir que amb un cens de 100 caps de bestiar cabrú és possible obtenir una producció mitjana de llet de 32.500 litres anuals, que es corresponen a un volum total de 3.823 quilograms de formatge a l'any (de les tipologies Formatge Garrotxa i Formatge de cabra amb oli, ambdues varietats tradicionals catalanes) obtenint un benefici de 21.389,47 Euros/any durant els primers 15 anys i un benefici de 33.386,39 Euros/any a partir del 16è any, cosa que permetrà recuperar la inversió inicial de 172.716,76 Euros que valen les naus i instal•lacions projectades, en un termini de 8 anys i permetrà, com s'ha dit, ocupar un nínxol de mercat encara poc explotat per la indústria agroalimentària a Catalunya.