865 resultados para Pseudo-population bootstrap approach


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A demographic model is developed based on interbirth intervals and is applied to estimate the population growth rate of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in the Gulf of Maine. Fecundity rates in this model are based on the probabilities of giving birth at time t after a previous birth and on the probabilities of giving birth first at age x. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate these probabilities using sighting data collected for individually identified whales. Female survival rates are estimated from these same sighting data using a modified Jolly–Seber method. The youngest age at first parturition is 5 yr, the estimated mean birth interval is 2.38 yr (SE = 0.10 yr), the estimated noncalf survival rate is 0.960 (SE = 0.008), and the estimated calf survival rate is 0.875 (SE = 0.047). The population growth rate (l) is estimated to be 1.065; its standard error is estimated as 0.012 using a Monte Carlo approach, which simulated sampling from a hypothetical population of whales. The simulation is also used to investigate the bias in estimating birth intervals by previous methods. The approach developed here is applicable to studies of other populations for which individual interbirth intervals can be measured.

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1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

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In west-central Texas, USA, abatement efforts for the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies epizootic illustrate the difficulties inherent in large-scale management of wildlife disease. The rabies epizootic has been managed through a cooperative oral rabies vaccination program (ORV) since 1996. Millions of edible baits containing a rabies vaccine have been distributed annually in a 16-km to 24-km zone around the perimeter of the epizootic, which encompasses a geographic area >4 x 105 km2. The ORV program successfully halted expansion of the epizootic into metropolitan areas but has not achieved the ultimate goal of eradication. Rabies activity in gray fox continues to occur periodically outside the ORV zone, preventing ORV zone contraction and dissipation of the epizootic. We employed a landscape-genetic approach to assess gray fox population structure and dispersal in the affected area, with the aim of assisting rabies management efforts. No unique genetic clusters or population boundaries were detected. Instead, foxes were weakly structured over the entire region in an isolation by distance pattern. Local subpopulations appeared to be genetically non-independent over distances >30 km, implying that long-distance movements or dispersal may have been common in the region. We concluded that gray foxes in west-central Texas have a high potential for long-distance rabies virus trafficking. Thus, a 16-km to 24-km ORV zone may be too narrow to contain the fox rabies epizootic. Continued expansion of the ORV zone, although costly, may be critical to the long-term goal of eliminating the Texas fox rabies virus variant from the United States.

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Townsend’s big-eared bat, Corynorhinus townsendii, is distributed broadly across western North America and in two isolated, endangered populations in central and eastern United States. There are five subspecies of C. townsendii; C. t. pallescens, C. t. australis, C. t. townsendii, C. t. ingens, and C. t. virginianus with varying degrees of concern over the conservation status of each. The aim of this study was to use mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA data to examine genetic diversity, population differentiation, and dispersal of three C. townsendii subspecies. C. t. virginianus is found in isolated populations in the eastern United States and was listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act in 1979. Concern also exists about declining populations of two western subspecies, C. t. pallescens and C. t. townsendii. Using a comparative approach, estimates of the genetic diversity within populations of the endangered subspecies, C. t. virginianus, were found to be significantly lower than within populations of the two western subspecies. Further, both classes of molecular markers revealed significant differentiation among regional populations of C. t. virginianus with most genetic diversity distributed among populations. Genetic diversity was not significantly different between C. t. townsendii and C. t. pallescens. Some populations of C. t. townsendii are not genetically differentiated from populations of C. t. pallescens in areas of sympatry. For the western subspecies gene flow appears to occur primarily through male dispersal. Finally, geographic regions representing significantly differentiated and genetically unique populations of C. townsendii virginianus are recognized as distinct evolutionary significant units.

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The relative growth and population structure of the terebellid Nicolea uspiana were investigated in the intertidal zone of a rocky shore on the south-east coast of Brazil, from May 2006 to May 2007. Eight hundred and forty-seven individuals of N. uspiana were analysed: 391 males, 163 females, and 293 immatures. Although significant differences in some morphometric parameters were found, there was no sexual dimorphism between males and females. There were differences in total length, width of segments, and length of the notopodial region between matures and immatures. The negative allometry of the total length in relation to five other parameters showed that this feature is a good measure for estimating the individual size, which was then used in the analysis of population structure. This population of N. uspiana showed a bimodal size frequency distribution, with immature and mature individuals found during the entire year. This pattern indicates continuous reproduction, with each cohort growing for at least three to four months and being responsible for two consecutive settlement peaks.

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The objective of this intervention study was to map instituted and instituting movements present in the work of the Family Health Strategy in the development of their care practices. The theoretical framework is based on institutional analysis, using the schizoanalytic approach. Group meetings were carried out with the staff to discuss how they provided collective care in continuing health education. The study subjects were professionals from the team and students who were engaged in academic activity in the service. The average attendance was twelve people per meeting, and there were a total of eight meetings from March to July 2010. Data were grouped into two immanent strata: the relationships of the team and the relationship with clients. The strata point to the intersection of education and legal institutions and the social and technical division of labor. Collective thinking in groups appeared to be effective in denaturalizing established processes and interrogating places, knowledge and practices.

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Background: Warfarin-dosing pharmacogenetic algorithms have presented different performances across ethnicities, and the impact in admixed populations is not fully known. Aims: To evaluate the CYP2C9 and VKORC1 polymorphisms and warfarin-predicted metabolic phenotypes according to both self-declared ethnicity and genetic ancestry in a Brazilian general population plus Amerindian groups. Methods: Two hundred twenty-two Amerindians (Tupinikin and Guarani) were enrolled and 1038 individuals from the Brazilian general population who were self-declared as White, Intermediate (Brown, Pardo in Portuguese), or Black. Samples of 274 Brazilian subjects from Sao Paulo were analyzed for genetic ancestry using an Affymetrix 6.0 (R) genotyping platform. The CYP2C9*2 (rs1799853), CYP2C9*3 (rs1057910), and VKORC1 g.-1639G>A (rs9923231) polymorphisms were genotyped in all studied individuals. Results: The allelic frequency for the VKORC1 polymorphism was differently distributed according to self-declared ethnicity: White (50.5%), Intermediate (46.0%), Black (39.3%), Tupinikin (40.1%), and Guarani (37.3%) (p < 0.001), respectively. The frequency of intermediate plus poor metabolizers (IM + PM) was higher in White (28.3%) than in Intermediate (22.7%), Black (20.5%), Tupinikin (12.9%), and Guarani (5.3%), (p < 0.001). For the samples with determined ancestry, subjects carrying the GG genotype for the VKORC1 had higher African ancestry and lower European ancestry (0.14 +/- 0.02 and 0.62 +/- 0.02) than in subjects carrying AA (0.05 +/- 0.01 and 0.73 +/- 0.03) (p = 0.009 and 0.03, respectively). Subjects classified as IM + PM had lower African ancestry (0.08 +/- 0.01) than extensive metabolizers (0.12 +/- 0.01) (p = 0.02). Conclusions: The CYP2C9 and VKORC1 polymorphisms are differently distributed according to self-declared ethnicity or genetic ancestry in the Brazilian general population plus Amerindians. This information is an initial step toward clinical pharmacogenetic implementation, and it could be very useful in strategic planning aiming at an individual therapeutic approach and an adverse drug effect profile prediction in an admixed population.

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Aedes aegypti is the most important vector of dengue viruses in tropical and subtropical regions. Because vaccines are still under development, dengue prevention depends primarily on vector control. Population genetics is a common approach in research involving Ae. aegypti. In the context of medical entomology, wing morphometric analysis has been proposed as a strong and low-cost complementary tool for investigating population structure. Therefore, we comparatively evaluated the genetic and phenotypic variability of population samples of Ae. aegypti from four sampling sites in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo city, Brazil. The distances between the sites ranged from 7.1 to 50 km. This area, where knowledge on the population genetics of this mosquito is incipient, was chosen due to the thousands of dengue cases registered yearly. The analysed loci were polymorphic, and they revealed population structure (global F-ST = 0.062; p < 0.05) and low levels of gene flow (Nm = 0.47) between the four locations. Principal component and discriminant analyses of wing shape variables (18 landmarks) demonstrated that wing polymorphisms were only slightly more common between populations than within populations. Whereas microsatellites allowed for geographic differentiation, wing geometry failed to distinguish the samples. These data suggest that microevolution in this species may affect genetic and morphological characters to different degrees. In this case, wing shape was not validated as a marker for assessing population structure. According to the interpretation of a previous report, the wing shape of Ae. aegypti does not vary significantly because it is stabilised by selective pressure. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Recently, researches have shown that the performance of metaheuristics can be affected by population initialization. Opposition-based Differential Evolution (ODE), Quasi-Oppositional Differential Evolution (QODE), and Uniform-Quasi-Opposition Differential Evolution (UQODE) are three state-of-the-art methods that improve the performance of the Differential Evolution algorithm based on population initialization and different search strategies. In a different approach to achieve similar results, this paper presents a technique to discover promising regions in a continuous search-space of an optimization problem. Using machine-learning techniques, the algorithm named Smart Sampling (SS) finds regions with high possibility of containing a global optimum. Next, a metaheuristic can be initialized inside each region to find that optimum. SS and DE were combined (originating the SSDE algorithm) to evaluate our approach, and experiments were conducted in the same set of benchmark functions used by ODE, QODE and UQODE authors. Results have shown that the total number of function evaluations required by DE to reach the global optimum can be significantly reduced and that the success rate improves if SS is employed first. Such results are also in consonance with results from the literature, stating the importance of an adequate starting population. Moreover, SS presents better efficacy to find initial populations of superior quality when compared to the other three algorithms that employ oppositional learning. Finally and most important, the SS performance in finding promising regions is independent of the employed metaheuristic with which SS is combined, making SS suitable to improve the performance of a large variety of optimization techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This population-based health survey was carried out in Florianopolis, Brazil, to assess the association between adult systolic blood pressure (SBP) and contextual income level, after controlling for potential individual-level confounders. A statistically significant negative association between SBP levels and contextual income was identified after adjusting for individual-level characteristics. SBP levels in the highest and in the intermediate tertiles of contextual income were 5.78 and 2.82 mmHg lower, respectively, than that observed in the bottom tertile. The findings suggest an association between income area level and blood pressure, regardless of well-known individual-level hypertension risk factors. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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OBJECTIVE: Large vessel occlusion in acute ischemic stroke is associated with low recanalization rates under intravenous thrombolysis. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the Solitaire AB stent in treating acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: Patients presenting with acute ischemic stroke were prospectively evaluated. The neurological outcomes were assessed using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and the modified Rankin Scale. Time was recorded from the symptom onset to the recanalization and procedure time. Recanalization was assessed using the thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were evaluated. The mean patient age was 65, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores ranged from 7 to 28 (average 17+/-6.36) at presentation. The vessel occlusions occurred in the middle cerebral artery (61.9%), distal internal carotid artery (14.3%), tandem carotid occlusion (14.3%), and basilar artery (9.5%). Primary thrombectomy, rescue treatment and a bridging approach represented 66.6%, 28.6%, and 4.8% of the performed procedures, respectively. The mean time from symptom onset to recanalization was 356.5+/-107.8 minutes (range, 80-586 minutes). The mean procedure time was 60.4+/-58.8 minutes (range, 14-240 minutes). The overall recanalization rate (thrombolysis in cerebral infarction scores of 3 or 2b) was 90.4%, and the symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage rate was 14.2%. The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores at discharge ranged from 0 to 25 (average 6.9+/-7). At three months, 61.9% of the patients had a modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 2, with an overall mortality rate of 9.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Intra-arterial thrombectomy with the Solitaire AB device appears to be safe and effective. Large randomized trials are necessary to confirm the benefits of this approach in acute ischemic stroke.

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We present a detailed study of the Baryscan technique, a new efficient alternative to the widespread Z-scan technique which has been demonstrated [Opt. Lett. 36:8, 2011] to reach among the highest sensitivity levels. This method is based upon the measurement of optical nonlinearities by means of beam centroid displacements with a position sensitive detector and is able to deal with any kind of lensing effect. This technique is applied here to measure pump-induced electronic refractive index changes (population lens), which can be discriminated from parasitic thermal effects by using a time-resolved Baryscan experiment. This method is validated by evaluating the polarizability variation at the origin of the population lens observed in the reference Cr3+:GSGG laser material.

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Over the past few years, the field of global optimization has been very active, producing different kinds of deterministic and stochastic algorithms for optimization in the continuous domain. These days, the use of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) to solve optimization problems is a common practice due to their competitive performance on complex search spaces. EAs are well known for their ability to deal with nonlinear and complex optimization problems. Differential evolution (DE) algorithms are a family of evolutionary optimization techniques that use a rather greedy and less stochastic approach to problem solving, when compared to classical evolutionary algorithms. The main idea is to construct, at each generation, for each element of the population a mutant vector, which is constructed through a specific mutation operation based on adding differences between randomly selected elements of the population to another element. Due to its simple implementation, minimum mathematical processing and good optimization capability, DE has attracted attention. This paper proposes a new approach to solve electromagnetic design problems that combines the DE algorithm with a generator of chaos sequences. This approach is tested on the design of a loudspeaker model with 17 degrees of freedom, for showing its applicability to electromagnetic problems. The results show that the DE algorithm with chaotic sequences presents better, or at least similar, results when compared to the standard DE algorithm and other evolutionary algorithms available in the literature.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate factors associated with reported work-related musculoskeletal symptoms among aircraft assembly workers. Population consisted of 552 (491 men/61 women) workers who performed tasks related to the work of aircraft assembly. Participants completed a comprehensive questionnaire, including socio-demographic information, habits/lifestyles, working conditions, and work organization. Workers also answered the Nordic Musculoskeletal Questionnaire to obtain data on musculoskeletal symptoms. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to analyze factors associated with musculoskeletal reported symptoms. Results showed that body regions with the highest prevalence of reported musculoskeletal symptoms were similar when referred the past twelve months and the past seven days. Significant factors associated with musculoskeletal symptoms included variables related to conflicts at work, sleep problems, mental fatigue, and lack of time for personal care and recovery. Working time in the industry was associated only with reports for the last seven days and regular physical activity off-work seems to be a positive factor in preventing musculoskeletal symptoms for the past twelve months. The results highlight the multi-factorial nature of the problem. Actions to prevent musculoskeletal diseases at the aircraft assembly work should consider multiple interventions that would promote better recovery between work shifts.