Semantic Service Discovery Techniques for the composable web

This PhD thesis contributes to the problem of resource and service discovery in the context of the composable web. In the current web, mashup technologies allow developers reusing services and contents to build new web applications. However, developers face a problem of information flood when searching for appropriate services or resources for their combination. To contribute to overcoming this problem, a framework is defined for the discovery of services and resources. In this framework, three levels are defined for performing discovery at content, discovery and agente levels. The content level involves the information available in web resources. The web follows the Representational Stateless Transfer (REST) architectural style, in which resources are returned as representations from servers to clients. These representations usually employ the HyperText Markup Language (HTML), which, along with Content Style Sheets (CSS), describes the markup employed to render representations in a web browser. Although the use of SemanticWeb standards such as Resource Description Framework (RDF) make this architecture suitable for automatic processes to use the information present in web resources, these standards are too often not employed, so automation must rely on processing HTML. This process, often referred as Screen Scraping in the literature, is the content discovery according to the proposed framework. At this level, discovery rules indicate how the different pieces of data in resources’ representations are mapped onto semantic entities. By processing discovery rules on web resources, semantically described contents can be obtained out of them. The service level involves the operations that can be performed on the web. The current web allows users to perform different tasks such as search, blogging, e-commerce, or social networking. To describe the possible services in RESTful architectures, a high-level feature-oriented service methodology is proposed at this level. This lightweight description framework allows defining service discovery rules to identify operations in interactions with REST resources. The discovery is thus performed by applying discovery rules to contents discovered in REST interactions, in a novel process called service probing. Also, service discovery can be performed by modelling services as contents, i.e., by retrieving Application Programming Interface (API) documentation and API listings in service registries such as ProgrammableWeb. For this, a unified model for composable components in Mashup-Driven Development (MDD) has been defined after the analysis of service repositories from the web. The agent level involves the orchestration of the discovery of services and contents. At this level, agent rules allow to specify behaviours for crawling and executing services, which results in the fulfilment of a high-level goal. Agent rules are plans that allow introspecting the discovered data and services from the web and the knowledge present in service and content discovery rules to anticipate the contents and services to be found on specific resources from the web. By the definition of plans, an agent can be configured to target specific resources. The discovery framework has been evaluated on different scenarios, each one covering different levels of the framework. Contenidos a la Carta project deals with the mashing-up of news from electronic newspapers, and the framework was used for the discovery and extraction of pieces of news from the web. Similarly, in Resulta and VulneraNET projects the discovery of ideas and security knowledge in the web is covered, respectively. The service level is covered in the OMELETTE project, where mashup components such as services and widgets are discovered from component repositories from the web. The agent level is applied to the crawling of services and news in these scenarios, highlighting how the semantic description of rules and extracted data can provide complex behaviours and orchestrations of tasks in the web. The main contributions of the thesis are the unified framework for discovery, which allows configuring agents to perform automated tasks. Also, a scraping ontology has been defined for the construction of mappings for scraping web resources. A novel first-order logic rule induction algorithm is defined for the automated construction and maintenance of these mappings out of the visual information in web resources. Additionally, a common unified model for the discovery of services is defined, which allows sharing service descriptions. Future work comprises the further extension of service probing, resource ranking, the extension of the Scraping Ontology, extensions of the agent model, and contructing a base of discovery rules. Resumen La presente tesis doctoral contribuye al problema de descubrimiento de servicios y recursos en el contexto de la web combinable. En la web actual, las tecnologías de combinación de aplicaciones permiten a los desarrolladores reutilizar servicios y contenidos para construir nuevas aplicaciones web. Pese a todo, los desarrolladores afrontan un problema de saturación de información a la hora de buscar servicios o recursos apropiados para su combinación. Para contribuir a la solución de este problema, se propone un marco de trabajo para el descubrimiento de servicios y recursos. En este marco, se definen tres capas sobre las que se realiza descubrimiento a nivel de contenido, servicio y agente. El nivel de contenido involucra a la información disponible en recursos web. La web sigue el estilo arquitectónico Representational Stateless Transfer (REST), en el que los recursos son devueltos como representaciones por parte de los servidores a los clientes. Estas representaciones normalmente emplean el lenguaje de marcado HyperText Markup Language (HTML), que, unido al estándar Content Style Sheets (CSS), describe el marcado empleado para mostrar representaciones en un navegador web. Aunque el uso de estándares de la web semántica como Resource Description Framework (RDF) hace apta esta arquitectura para su uso por procesos automatizados, estos estándares no son empleados en muchas ocasiones, por lo que cualquier automatización debe basarse en el procesado del marcado HTML. Este proceso, normalmente conocido como Screen Scraping en la literatura, es el descubrimiento de contenidos en el marco de trabajo propuesto. En este nivel, un conjunto de reglas de descubrimiento indican cómo los diferentes datos en las representaciones de recursos se corresponden con entidades semánticas. Al procesar estas reglas sobre recursos web, pueden obtenerse contenidos descritos semánticamente. El nivel de servicio involucra las operaciones que pueden ser llevadas a cabo en la web. Actualmente, los usuarios de la web pueden realizar diversas tareas como búsqueda, blogging, comercio electrónico o redes sociales. Para describir los posibles servicios en arquitecturas REST, se propone en este nivel una metodología de alto nivel para descubrimiento de servicios orientada a funcionalidades. Este marco de descubrimiento ligero permite definir reglas de descubrimiento de servicios para identificar operaciones en interacciones con recursos REST. Este descubrimiento es por tanto llevado a cabo al aplicar las reglas de descubrimiento sobre contenidos descubiertos en interacciones REST, en un nuevo procedimiento llamado sondeo de servicios. Además, el descubrimiento de servicios puede ser llevado a cabo mediante el modelado de servicios como contenidos. Es decir, mediante la recuperación de documentación de Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) y listas de APIs en registros de servicios como ProgrammableWeb. Para ello, se ha definido un modelo unificado de componentes combinables para Mashup-Driven Development (MDD) tras el análisis de repositorios de servicios de la web. El nivel de agente involucra la orquestación del descubrimiento de servicios y contenidos. En este nivel, las reglas de nivel de agente permiten especificar comportamientos para el rastreo y ejecución de servicios, lo que permite la consecución de metas de mayor nivel. Las reglas de los agentes son planes que permiten la introspección sobre los datos y servicios descubiertos, así como sobre el conocimiento presente en las reglas de descubrimiento de servicios y contenidos para anticipar contenidos y servicios por encontrar en recursos específicos de la web. Mediante la definición de planes, un agente puede ser configurado para descubrir recursos específicos. El marco de descubrimiento ha sido evaluado sobre diferentes escenarios, cada uno cubriendo distintos niveles del marco. El proyecto Contenidos a la Carta trata de la combinación de noticias de periódicos digitales, y en él el framework se ha empleado para el descubrimiento y extracción de noticias de la web. De manera análoga, en los proyectos Resulta y VulneraNET se ha llevado a cabo un descubrimiento de ideas y de conocimientos de seguridad, respectivamente. El nivel de servicio se cubre en el proyecto OMELETTE, en el que componentes combinables como servicios y widgets se descubren en repositorios de componentes de la web. El nivel de agente se aplica al rastreo de servicios y noticias en estos escenarios, mostrando cómo la descripción semántica de reglas y datos extraídos permiten proporcionar comportamientos complejos y orquestaciones de tareas en la web. Las principales contribuciones de la tesis son el marco de trabajo unificado para descubrimiento, que permite configurar agentes para realizar tareas automatizadas. Además, una ontología de extracción ha sido definida para la construcción de correspondencias y extraer información de recursos web. Asimismo, un algoritmo para la inducción de reglas de lógica de primer orden se ha definido para la construcción y el mantenimiento de estas correspondencias a partir de la información visual de recursos web. Adicionalmente, se ha definido un modelo común y unificado para el descubrimiento de servicios que permite la compartición de descripciones de servicios. Como trabajos futuros se considera la extensión del sondeo de servicios, clasificación de recursos, extensión de la ontología de extracción y la construcción de una base de reglas de descubrimiento.

Probabilistic mapping with mobile robots in structured environments

La mayor parte de los entornos diseñados por el hombre presentan características geométricas específicas. En ellos es frecuente encontrar formas poligonales, rectangulares, circulares . . . con una serie de relaciones típicas entre distintos elementos del entorno. Introducir este tipo de conocimiento en el proceso de construcción de mapas de un robot móvil puede mejorar notablemente la calidad y la precisión de los mapas resultantes. También puede hacerlos más útiles de cara a un razonamiento de más alto nivel. Cuando la construcción de mapas se formula en un marco probabilístico Bayesiano, una especificación completa del problema requiere considerar cierta información a priori sobre el tipo de entorno. El conocimiento previo puede aplicarse de varias maneras, en esta tesis se presentan dos marcos diferentes: uno basado en el uso de primitivas geométricas y otro que emplea un método de representación cercano al espacio de las medidas brutas. Un enfoque basado en características geométricas supone implícitamente imponer un cierto modelo a priori para el entorno. En este sentido, el desarrollo de una solución al problema SLAM mediante la optimización de un grafo de características geométricas constituye un primer paso hacia nuevos métodos de construcción de mapas en entornos estructurados. En el primero de los dos marcos propuestos, el sistema deduce la información a priori a aplicar en cada caso en base a una extensa colección de posibles modelos geométricos genéricos, siguiendo un método de Maximización de la Esperanza para hallar la estructura y el mapa más probables. La representación de la estructura del entorno se basa en un enfoque jerárquico, con diferentes niveles de abstracción para los distintos elementos geométricos que puedan describirlo. Se llevaron a cabo diversos experimentos para mostrar la versatilidad y el buen funcionamiento del método propuesto. En el segundo marco, el usuario puede definir diferentes modelos de estructura para el entorno mediante grupos de restricciones y energías locales entre puntos vecinos de un conjunto de datos del mismo. El grupo de restricciones que se aplica a cada grupo de puntos depende de la topología, que es inferida por el propio sistema. De este modo, se pueden incorporar nuevos modelos genéricos de estructura para el entorno con gran flexibilidad y facilidad. Se realizaron distintos experimentos para demostrar la flexibilidad y los buenos resultados del enfoque propuesto. Abstract Most human designed environments present specific geometrical characteristics. In them, it is easy to find polygonal, rectangular and circular shapes, with a series of typical relations between different elements of the environment. Introducing this kind of knowledge in the mapping process of mobile robots can notably improve the quality and accuracy of the resulting maps. It can also make them more suitable for higher level reasoning applications. When mapping is formulated in a Bayesian probabilistic framework, a complete specification of the problem requires considering a prior for the environment. The prior over the structure of the environment can be applied in several ways; this dissertation presents two different frameworks, one using a feature based approach and another one employing a dense representation close to the measurements space. A feature based approach implicitly imposes a prior for the environment. In this sense, feature based graph SLAM was a first step towards a new mapping solution for structured scenarios. In the first framework, the prior is inferred by the system from a wide collection of feature based priors, following an Expectation-Maximization approach to obtain the most probable structure and the most probable map. The representation of the structure of the environment is based on a hierarchical model with different levels of abstraction for the geometrical elements describing it. Various experiments were conducted to show the versatility and the good performance of the proposed method. In the second framework, different priors can be defined by the user as sets of local constraints and energies for consecutive points in a range scan from a given environment. The set of constraints applied to each group of points depends on the topology, which is inferred by the system. This way, flexible and generic priors can be incorporated very easily. Several tests were carried out to demonstrate the flexibility and the good results of the proposed approach.

Contributions to the contextualization of human-machine spoken interaction systems

The design and development of spoken interaction systems has been a thoroughly studied research scope for the last decades. The aim is to obtain systems with the ability to interact with human agents with a high degree of naturalness and efficiency, allowing them to carry out the actions they desire using speech, as it is the most natural means of communication between humans. To achieve that degree of naturalness, it is not enough to endow systems with the ability to accurately understand the user’s utterances and to properly react to them, even considering the information provided by the user in his or her previous interactions. The system has also to be aware of the evolution of the conditions under which the interaction takes place, in order to act the most coherent way as possible at each moment. Consequently, one of the most important features of the system is that it has to be context-aware. This context awareness of the system can be reflected in the modification of the behaviour of the system taking into account the current situation of the interaction. For instance, the system should decide which action it has to carry out, or the way to perform it, depending on the user that requests it, on the way that the user addresses the system, on the characteristics of the environment in which the interaction takes place, and so on. In other words, the system has to adapt its behaviour to these evolving elements of the interaction. Moreover that adaptation has to be carried out, if possible, in such a way that the user: i) does not perceive that the system has to make any additional effort, or to devote interaction time to perform tasks other than carrying out the requested actions, and ii) does not have to provide the system with any additional information to carry out the adaptation, which could imply a lesser efficiency of the interaction, since users should devote several interactions only to allow the system to become adapted. In the state-of-the-art spoken dialogue systems, researchers have proposed several disparate strategies to adapt the elements of the system to different conditions of the interaction (such as the acoustic characteristics of a specific user’s speech, the actions previously requested, and so on). Nevertheless, to our knowledge there is not any consensus on the procedures to carry out these adaptation. The approaches are to an extent unrelated from one another, in the sense that each one considers different pieces of information, and the treatment of that information is different taking into account the adaptation carried out. In this regard, the main contributions of this Thesis are the following ones: Definition of a contextualization framework. We propose a unified approach that can cover any strategy to adapt the behaviour of a dialogue system to the conditions of the interaction (i.e. the context). In our theoretical definition of the contextualization framework we consider the system’s context as all the sources of variability present at any time of the interaction, either those ones related to the environment in which the interaction takes place, or to the human agent that addresses the system at each moment. Our proposal relies on three aspects that any contextualization approach should fulfill: plasticity (i.e. the system has to be able to modify its behaviour in the most proactive way taking into account the conditions under which the interaction takes place), adaptivity (i.e. the system has also to be able to consider the most appropriate sources of information at each moment, both environmental and user- and dialogue-dependent, to effectively adapt to the conditions aforementioned), and transparency (i.e. the system has to carry out the contextualizaton-related tasks in such a way that the user neither perceives them nor has to do any effort in providing the system with any information that it needs to perform that contextualization). Additionally, we could include a generality aspect to our proposed framework: the main features of the framework should be easy to adopt in any dialogue system, regardless of the solution proposed to manage the dialogue. Once we define the theoretical basis of our contextualization framework, we propose two cases of study on its application in a spoken dialogue system. We focus on two aspects of the interaction: the contextualization of the speech recognition models, and the incorporation of user-specific information into the dialogue flow. One of the modules of a dialogue system that is more prone to be contextualized is the speech recognition system. This module makes use of several models to emit a recognition hypothesis from the user’s speech signal. Generally speaking, a recognition system considers two types of models: an acoustic one (that models each of the phonemes that the recognition system has to consider) and a linguistic one (that models the sequences of words that make sense for the system). In this work we contextualize the language model of the recognition system in such a way that it takes into account the information provided by the user in both his or her current utterance and in the previous ones. These utterances convey information useful to help the system in the recognition of the next utterance. The contextualization approach that we propose consists of a dynamic adaptation of the language model that is used by the recognition system. We carry out this adaptation by means of a linear interpolation between several models. Instead of training the best interpolation weights, we make them dependent on the conditions of the dialogue. In our approach, the system itself will obtain these weights as a function of the reliability of the different elements of information available, such as the semantic concepts extracted from the user’s utterance, the actions that he or she wants to carry out, the information provided in the previous interactions, and so on. One of the aspects more frequently addressed in Human-Computer Interaction research is the inclusion of user specific characteristics into the information structures managed by the system. The idea is to take into account the features that make each user different from the others in order to offer to each particular user different services (or the same service, but in a different way). We could consider this approach as a user-dependent contextualization of the system. In our work we propose the definition of a user model that contains all the information of each user that could be potentially useful to the system at a given moment of the interaction. In particular we will analyze the actions that each user carries out throughout his or her interaction. The objective is to determine which of these actions become the preferences of that user. We represent the specific information of each user as a feature vector. Each of the characteristics that the system will take into account has a confidence score associated. With these elements, we propose a probabilistic definition of a user preference, as the action whose likelihood of being addressed by the user is greater than the one for the rest of actions. To include the user dependent information into the dialogue flow, we modify the information structures on which the dialogue manager relies to retrieve information that could be needed to solve the actions addressed by the user. Usage preferences become another source of contextual information that will be considered by the system towards a more efficient interaction (since the new information source will help to decrease the need of the system to ask users for additional information, thus reducing the number of turns needed to carry out a specific action). To test the benefits of the contextualization framework that we propose, we carry out an evaluation of the two strategies aforementioned. We gather several performance metrics, both objective and subjective, that allow us to compare the improvements of a contextualized system against the baseline one. We will also gather the user’s opinions as regards their perceptions on the behaviour of the system, and its degree of adaptation to the specific features of each interaction. Resumen El diseño y el desarrollo de sistemas de interacción hablada ha sido objeto de profundo estudio durante las pasadas décadas. El propósito es la consecución de sistemas con la capacidad de interactuar con agentes humanos con un alto grado de eficiencia y naturalidad. De esta manera, los usuarios pueden desempeñar las tareas que deseen empleando la voz, que es el medio de comunicación más natural para los humanos. A fin de alcanzar el grado de naturalidad deseado, no basta con dotar a los sistemas de la abilidad de comprender las intervenciones de los usuarios y reaccionar a ellas de manera apropiada (teniendo en consideración, incluso, la información proporcionada en previas interacciones). Adicionalmente, el sistema ha de ser consciente de las condiciones bajo las cuales transcurre la interacción, así como de la evolución de las mismas, de tal manera que pueda actuar de la manera más coherente en cada instante de la interacción. En consecuencia, una de las características primordiales del sistema es que debe ser sensible al contexto. Esta capacidad del sistema de conocer y emplear el contexto de la interacción puede verse reflejada en la modificación de su comportamiento debida a las características actuales de la interacción. Por ejemplo, el sistema debería decidir cuál es la acción más apropiada, o la mejor manera de llevarla a término, dependiendo del usuario que la solicita, del modo en el que lo hace, etcétera. En otras palabras, el sistema ha de adaptar su comportamiento a tales elementos mutables (o dinámicos) de la interacción. Dos características adicionales son requeridas a dicha adaptación: i) el usuario no ha de percibir que el sistema dedica recursos (temporales o computacionales) a realizar tareas distintas a las que aquél le solicita, y ii) el usuario no ha de dedicar esfuerzo alguno a proporcionar al sistema información adicional para llevar a cabo la interacción. Esto último implicaría una menor eficiencia de la interacción, puesto que los usuarios deberían dedicar parte de la misma a proporcionar información al sistema para su adaptación, sin ningún beneficio inmediato. En los sistemas de diálogo hablado propuestos en la literatura, se han propuesto diferentes estrategias para llevar a cabo la adaptación de los elementos del sistema a las diferentes condiciones de la interacción (tales como las características acústicas del habla de un usuario particular, o a las acciones a las que se ha referido con anterioridad). Sin embargo, no existe una estrategia fija para proceder a dicha adaptación, sino que las mismas no suelen guardar una relación entre sí. En este sentido, cada una de ellas tiene en cuenta distintas fuentes de información, la cual es tratada de manera diferente en función de las características de la adaptación buscada. Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior, las contribuciones principales de esta Tesis son las siguientes: Definición de un marco de contextualización. Proponemos un criterio unificador que pueda cubrir cualquier estrategia de adaptación del comportamiento de un sistema de diálogo a las condiciones de la interacción (esto es, el contexto de la misma). En nuestra definición teórica del marco de contextualización consideramos el contexto del sistema como todas aquellas fuentes de variabilidad presentes en cualquier instante de la interacción, ya estén relacionadas con el entorno en el que tiene lugar la interacción, ya dependan del agente humano que se dirige al sistema en cada momento. Nuestra propuesta se basa en tres aspectos que cualquier estrategia de contextualización debería cumplir: plasticidad (es decir, el sistema ha de ser capaz de modificar su comportamiento de la manera más proactiva posible, teniendo en cuenta las condiciones en las que tiene lugar la interacción), adaptabilidad (esto es, el sistema ha de ser capaz de considerar la información oportuna en cada instante, ya dependa del entorno o del usuario, de tal manera que adecúe su comportamiento de manera eficaz a las condiciones mencionadas), y transparencia (que implica que el sistema ha de desarrollar las tareas relacionadas con la contextualización de tal manera que el usuario no perciba la manera en que dichas tareas se llevan a cabo, ni tampoco deba proporcionar al sistema con información adicional alguna). De manera adicional, incluiremos en el marco propuesto el aspecto de la generalidad: las características del marco de contextualización han de ser portables a cualquier sistema de diálogo, con independencia de la solución propuesta en los mismos para gestionar el diálogo. Una vez hemos definido las características de alto nivel de nuestro marco de contextualización, proponemos dos estrategias de aplicación del mismo a un sistema de diálogo hablado. Nos centraremos en dos aspectos de la interacción a adaptar: los modelos empleados en el reconocimiento de habla, y la incorporación de información específica de cada usuario en el flujo de diálogo. Uno de los módulos de un sistema de diálogo más susceptible de ser contextualizado es el sistema de reconocimiento de habla. Este módulo hace uso de varios modelos para generar una hipótesis de reconocimiento a partir de la señal de habla. En general, un sistema de reconocimiento emplea dos tipos de modelos: uno acústico (que modela cada uno de los fonemas considerados por el reconocedor) y uno lingüístico (que modela las secuencias de palabras que tienen sentido desde el punto de vista de la interacción). En este trabajo contextualizamos el modelo lingüístico del reconocedor de habla, de tal manera que tenga en cuenta la información proporcionada por el usuario, tanto en su intervención actual como en las previas. Estas intervenciones contienen información (semántica y/o discursiva) que puede contribuir a un mejor reconocimiento de las subsiguientes intervenciones del usuario. La estrategia de contextualización propuesta consiste en una adaptación dinámica del modelo de lenguaje empleado en el reconocedor de habla. Dicha adaptación se lleva a cabo mediante una interpolación lineal entre diferentes modelos. En lugar de entrenar los mejores pesos de interpolación, proponemos hacer los mismos dependientes de las condiciones actuales de cada diálogo. El propio sistema obtendrá estos pesos como función de la disponibilidad y relevancia de las diferentes fuentes de información disponibles, tales como los conceptos semánticos extraídos a partir de la intervención del usuario, o las acciones que el mismo desea ejecutar. Uno de los aspectos más comúnmente analizados en la investigación de la Interacción Persona-Máquina es la inclusión de las características específicas de cada usuario en las estructuras de información empleadas por el sistema. El objetivo es tener en cuenta los aspectos que diferencian a cada usuario, de tal manera que el sistema pueda ofrecer a cada uno de ellos el servicio más apropiado (o un mismo servicio, pero de la manera más adecuada a cada usuario). Podemos considerar esta estrategia como una contextualización dependiente del usuario. En este trabajo proponemos la definición de un modelo de usuario que contenga toda la información relativa a cada usuario, que pueda ser potencialmente utilizada por el sistema en un momento determinado de la interacción. En particular, analizaremos aquellas acciones que cada usuario decide ejecutar a lo largo de sus diálogos con el sistema. Nuestro objetivo es determinar cuáles de dichas acciones se convierten en las preferencias de cada usuario. La información de cada usuario quedará representada mediante un vector de características, cada una de las cuales tendrá asociado un valor de confianza. Con ambos elementos proponemos una definición probabilística de una preferencia de uso, como aquella acción cuya verosimilitud es mayor que la del resto de acciones solicitadas por el usuario. A fin de incluir la información dependiente de usuario en el flujo de diálogo, llevamos a cabo una modificación de las estructuras de información en las que se apoya el gestor de diálogo para recuperar información necesaria para resolver ciertos diálogos. En dicha modificación las preferencias de cada usuario pasarán a ser una fuente adicional de información contextual, que será tenida en cuenta por el sistema en aras de una interacción más eficiente (puesto que la nueva fuente de información contribuirá a reducir la necesidad del sistema de solicitar al usuario información adicional, dando lugar en consecuencia a una reducción del número de intervenciones necesarias para llevar a cabo una acción determinada). Para determinar los beneficios de las aplicaciones del marco de contextualización propuesto, llevamos a cabo una evaluación de un sistema de diálogo que incluye las estrategias mencionadas. Hemos recogido diversas métricas, tanto objetivas como subjetivas, que nos permiten determinar las mejoras aportadas por un sistema contextualizado en comparación con el sistema sin contextualizar. De igual manera, hemos recogido las opiniones de los participantes en la evaluación acerca de su percepción del comportamiento del sistema, y de su capacidad de adaptación a las condiciones concretas de cada interacción.

Improving probabilistic flood forecasting through a data assimilation scheme based on genetic programming

Opportunities offered by high performance computing provide a significant degree of promise in the enhancement of the performance of real-time flood forecasting systems. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting through data assimilation is presented. The distributed rainfall-runoff real-time interactive basin simulator (RIBS) model is selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. Although the RIBS model is deterministic, it is run in a probabilistic way through the results of calibration developed in a previous work performed by the authors that identifies the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters. Adaptive techniques improve the result of flood forecasts because the model can be adapted to observations in real time as new information is available. The new adaptive forecast model based on genetic programming as a data assimilation technique is compared with the previously developed flood forecast model based on the calibration results. Both models are probabilistic as they generate an ensemble of hydrographs, taking the different uncertainties inherent in any forecast process into account. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study, with the process being computationally intensive as it requires simulation of many replicas of the ensemble in real time.

A review on probabilistic graphical models in evolutionary computation

Thanks to their inherent properties, probabilistic graphical models are one of the prime candidates for machine learning and decision making tasks especially in uncertain domains. Their capabilities, like representation, inference and learning, if used effectively, can greatly help to build intelligent systems that are able to act accordingly in different problem domains. Evolutionary algorithms is one such discipline that has employed probabilistic graphical models to improve the search for optimal solutions in complex problems. This paper shows how probabilistic graphical models have been used in evolutionary algorithms to improve their performance in solving complex problems. Specifically, we give a survey of probabilistic model building-based evolutionary algorithms, called estimation of distribution algorithms, and compare different methods for probabilistic modeling in these algorithms.

Model-Driven Methodology for Rapid Deployment of Smart Spaces based on Resource-Oriented Architectures

Advances in electronics nowadays facilitate the design of smart spaces based on physical mash-ups of sensor and actuator devices. At the same time, software paradigms such as Internet of Things (IoT) and Web of Things (WoT) are motivating the creation of technology to support the development and deployment of web-enabled embedded sensor and actuator devices with two major objectives: (i) to integrate sensing and actuating functionalities into everyday objects, and (ii) to easily allow a diversity of devices to plug into the Internet. Currently, developers who are applying this Internet-oriented approach need to have solid understanding about specific platforms and web technologies. In order to alleviate this development process, this research proposes a Resource-Oriented and Ontology-Driven Development (ROOD) methodology based on the Model Driven Architecture (MDA). This methodology aims at enabling the development of smart spaces through a set of modeling tools and semantic technologies that support the definition of the smart space and the automatic generation of code at hardware level. ROOD feasibility is demonstrated by building an adaptive health monitoring service for a Smart Gym.

Problem-based learning supported by semantic techniques

Problem-based learning has been applied over the last three decades to a diverse range of learning environments. In this educational approach, different problems are posed to the learners so that they can develop different solutions while learning about the problem domain. When applied to conceptual modelling, and particularly to Qualitative Reasoning, the solutions to problems are models that represent the behaviour of a dynamic system. The learner?s task then is to bridge the gap between their initial model, as their first attempt to represent the system, and the target models that provide solutions to that problem. We propose the use of semantic technologies and resources to help in bridging that gap by providing links to terminology and formal definitions, and matching techniques to allow learners to benefit from existing models.

Regularized model learning in EDAs for continuous and multi-objective optimization

Probabilistic modeling is the de�ning characteristic of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) which determines their behavior and performance in optimization. Regularization is a well-known statistical technique used for obtaining an improved model by reducing the generalization error of estimation, especially in high-dimensional problems. `1-regularization is a type of this technique with the appealing variable selection property which results in sparse model estimations. In this thesis, we study the use of regularization techniques for model learning in EDAs. Several methods for regularized model estimation in continuous domains based on a Gaussian distribution assumption are presented, and analyzed from di�erent aspects when used for optimization in a high-dimensional setting, where the population size of EDA has a logarithmic scale with respect to the number of variables. The optimization results obtained for a number of continuous problems with an increasing number of variables show that the proposed EDA based on regularized model estimation performs a more robust optimization, and is able to achieve signi�cantly better results for larger dimensions than other Gaussian-based EDAs. We also propose a method for learning a marginally factorized Gaussian Markov random �eld model using regularization techniques and a clustering algorithm. The experimental results show notable optimization performance on continuous additively decomposable problems when using this model estimation method. Our study also covers multi-objective optimization and we propose joint probabilistic modeling of variables and objectives in EDAs based on Bayesian networks, speci�cally models inspired from multi-dimensional Bayesian network classi�ers. It is shown that with this approach to modeling, two new types of relationships are encoded in the estimated models in addition to the variable relationships captured in other EDAs: objectivevariable and objective-objective relationships. An extensive experimental study shows the e�ectiveness of this approach for multi- and many-objective optimization. With the proposed joint variable-objective modeling, in addition to the Pareto set approximation, the algorithm is also able to obtain an estimation of the multi-objective problem structure. Finally, the study of multi-objective optimization based on joint probabilistic modeling is extended to noisy domains, where the noise in objective values is represented by intervals. A new version of the Pareto dominance relation for ordering the solutions in these problems, namely �-degree Pareto dominance, is introduced and its properties are analyzed. We show that the ranking methods based on this dominance relation can result in competitive performance of EDAs with respect to the quality of the approximated Pareto sets. This dominance relation is then used together with a method for joint probabilistic modeling based on `1-regularization for multi-objective feature subset selection in classi�cation, where six di�erent measures of accuracy are considered as objectives with interval values. The individual assessment of the proposed joint probabilistic modeling and solution ranking methods on datasets with small-medium dimensionality, when using two di�erent Bayesian classi�ers, shows that comparable or better Pareto sets of feature subsets are approximated in comparison to standard methods.

Hybrid choice model for propensity to travel and tour complexity

During the last years cities around the world have invested important quantities of money in measures for reducing congestion and car-trips. Investments which are nothing but potential solutions for the well-known urban sprawl phenomenon, also called the “development trap” that leads to further congestion and a higher proportion of our time spent in slow moving cars. Over the path of this searching for solutions, the complex relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour has been studied in a number of cases. The main question on discussion is, how to encourage multi-stop tours? Thus, the objective of this paper is to verify whether unobserved factors influence tour complexity. For this purpose, we use a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006-2007 in Madrid, a suitable case study for analyzing urban sprawl due to new urban developments and substantial changes in mobility patterns in the last years. A total of 943 individuals were interviewed from 3 selected neighbourhoods (CBD, urban and suburban). We study the effect of unobserved factors on trip frequency. This paper present the estimation of an hybrid model where the latent variable is called propensity to travel and the discrete choice model is composed by 5 alternatives of tour type. The results show that characteristics of the neighbourhoods in Madrid are important to explain trip frequency. The influence of land use variables on trip generation is clear and in particular the presence of commercial retails. Through estimation of elasticities and forecasting we determine to what extent land-use policy measures modify travel demand. Comparing aggregate elasticities with percentage variations, it can be seen that percentage variations could lead to inconsistent results. The result shows that hybrid models better explain travel behavior than traditional discrete choice models.

Probabilistic reasoning with a bayesian DNA device based on strand displacement

We present a computing model based on the DNA strand displacement technique which performs Bayesian inference. The model will take single stranded DNA as input data, representing the presence or absence of a specific molecular signal (evidence). The program logic encodes the prior probability of a disease and the conditional probability of a signal given the disease playing with a set of different DNA complexes and their ratios. When the input and program molecules interact, they release a different pair of single stranded DNA species whose relative proportion represents the application of Bayes? Law: the conditional probability of the disease given the signal. The models presented in this paper can empower the application of probabilistic reasoning in genetic diagnosis in vitro.

Towards a lightweight mobile semantic-based approach for enhancing interaction with smart objects

This work describes a semantic extension for a user-smart object interaction model based on the ECA paradigm (Event-Condition-Action). In this approach, smart objects publish their sensing (event) and action capabilities in the cloud and mobile devices are prepared to retrieve them and act as mediators to configure personalized behaviours for the objects. In this paper, the information handled by this interaction system has been shaped according several semantic models that, together with the integration of an embedded ontological and rule-based reasoner, are exploited in order to (i) automatically detect incompatible ECA rules configurations and to (ii) support complex ECA rules definitions and execution. This semantic extension may significantly improve the management of smart spaces populated with numerous smart objects from mobile personal devices, as it facilitates the configuration of coherent ECA rules.

Characterising emergent semantics in Twitter lists

Twitter lists organise Twitter users into multiple, often overlapping, sets. We believe that these lists capture some form of emergent semantics, which may be useful to characterise. In this paper we describe an approach for such characterisation, which consists of deriving semantic relations between lists and users by analyzing the cooccurrence of keywords in list names. We use the vector space model and Latent Dirichlet Allocation to obtain similar keywords according to co-occurrence patterns. These results are then compared to similarity measures relying on WordNet and to existing Linked Data sets. Results show that co-occurrence of keywords based on members of the lists produce more synonyms and more correlated results to that of WordNet similarity measures.

Integration of temporal and semantic components into the Geographic Information. Part II: Methodology

The overall objective of this research project is to enrich geographic data with temporal and semantic components in order to significantly improve spatio-temporal analysis of geographic phenomena. To achieve this goal, we intend to establish and incorporate three new layers (structures) into the core of the Geographic Information by using mark-up languages as well as defining a set of methods and tools for enriching the system to make it able to retrieve and exploit such layers (semantic-temporal, geosemantic, and incremental spatio-temporal). Besides these layers, we also propose a set of models (temporal and spatial) and two semantic engines that make the most of the enriched geographic data. The roots of the project and its definition have been previously presented in Siabato & Manso-Callejo 2011. In this new position paper, we extend such work by delineating clearly the methodology and the foundations on which we will base to define the main components of this research: the spatial model, the temporal model, the semantic layers, and the semantic engines. By putting together the former paper and this new work we try to present a comprehensive description of the whole process, from pinpointing the basic problem to describing and assessing the solution. In this new article we just mention the methods and the background to describe how we intend to define the components and integrate them into the GI.

Collaborative semantic editing of linked data lexica.

The creation of language resources is a time-consuming process requiring the efforts of many people. The use of resources collaboratively created by non-linguists can potentially ameliorate this situation. However, such resources often contain more errors compared to resources created by experts. For the particular case of lexica, we analyse the case of Wiktionary, a resource created along wiki principles and argue that through the use of a principled lexicon model, namely lemon, the resulting data could be better understandable to machines. We then present a platform called lemon source that supports the creation of linked lexical data along the lemon model. This tool builds on the concept of a semantic wiki to enable collaborative editing of the resources by many users concurrently. In this paper, we describe the model, the tool and present an evaluation of its usability based on a small group of users.

Probabilistic reasoning with an enzyme-driven DNA device

We present a biomolecular probabilistic model driven by the action of a DNA toolbox made of a set of DNA templates and enzymes that is able to perform Bayesian inference. The model will take single-stranded DNA as input data, representing the presence or absence of a specific molecular signal (the evidence). The program logic uses different DNA templates and their relative concentration ratios to encode the prior probability of a disease and the conditional probability of a signal given the disease. When the input and program molecules interact, an enzyme-driven cascade of reactions (DNA polymerase extension, nicking and degradation) is triggered, producing a different pair of single-stranded DNA species. Once the system reaches equilibrium, the ratio between the output species will represent the application of Bayes? law: the conditional probability of the disease given the signal. In other words, a qualitative diagnosis plus a quantitative degree of belief in that diagno- sis. Thanks to the inherent amplification capability of this DNA toolbox, the resulting system will be able to to scale up (with longer cascades and thus more input signals) a Bayesian biosensor that we designed previously.